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  • Widening data divide between state and citizens

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Context

    While this year’s Economic Survey focuses on improving the quality and quantity of data for better and quicker assessment of the state of the economy, it pays little attention to access to the data by citizens, ignoring the criticality of data for a healthy and informed public discourse on issues of policy relevance.

    Strengthening data architecture

    • The government has been proactively strengthening the data architecture for tackling corruption and better targeting of beneficiaries.
    • Since 2014, the scope of UIDAI has seen a huge expansion.
    • JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) has private details of citizens.
    • The government is sufficiently empowered to collect and use information about its citizens touching all the spheres of their life.
    • Along with traditional instruments such as the Census, sample surveys and registers of various departments, the government is now armed with real-time data.

    Erosion in citizens’ right to access data and widening information gap

    • Delayed release of survey data: The citizen’s right to access relevant data for quality public discussion seems to be gradually eroding.
    •  In this process, the government has refused to hold itself accountable.
    • This is evident from repeated events of delayed release of various survey data.
    • For example, data from the consumption survey 2017-18 has not yet been released.
    •  Similarly, the first Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS 2017-18) was released only after the 2019 general election.
    • Undermining of scientific data: Further, instead of relying on the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), a systematically designed survey for estimation of industrial sector GDP, the government has started to depend on self-reported, unverified data submitted to the Ministry of Corporate Affairs since 2011.
    • Now that ASI is nearly redundant for official estimation purposes, the future of this database is uncertain.
    • Another example of undermining the scientific database is the delay in the release of Water and Sanitation Survey data 2018. 
    • The information gaps in the area of migration are well documented.
    • Information gap: While the JAM architecture and pandemic induced tracking tools allow for the mapping of individuals, researchers and the civil society do not have access to that information, which is useful to ascertain the level and prevalence of migration across regions within the country.

    Conclusion

    This data divide between the state and its citizens is a potential threat to the smooth functioning of a democracy. Without bridging this data gap, the scope of modern technology for tracking development cannot be realised.

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  • Freedom of Speech – Defamation, Sedition, etc.

    Hate speech

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Context

    Hate speech is at the root of many forms of violence that are being perpetrated and has become one of the biggest challenges to the rule of law and to our democratic conscience.

    Consequences of hate speech

    • Electoral mobilisation along the communal line: One of the most visible consequences of hate speech is increased electoral mobilisation along communal lines which is also paying some electoral dividends.
    •  Hate speech, in itself, must be understood and treated as a violent act and urgently so.
    • With elected members currently sitting in the legislative assemblies and Parliament giving political sanction to citizens mobilised into mob violence and complicit public officials, hate speech is becoming the dominant mode of public political participation. 

    Role of Election Commission

    • In 2019, the Supreme Court reprimanded the Election Commission, calling it “toothless” for not taking action against candidates engaging in hate speech during the election campaigns in UP.
    • The Commission responded by saying that it had limited powers to take action in this matter. 
    • So far, the Supreme Court does not appear to have acted decisively in response to allegations of hate speech in electoral campaigns, indicating that the EC must assume more responsibility and the EC has argued that in matters of hate speech, it is largely “powerless”.
    • In any case, the EC’s role is confined to the election period.

    Legal provisions to deal with hate speech

    • The Indian Penal Code, as per Sections 153A, 295A and 298, criminalises the promotion of enmity between different groups of people on grounds of religion and language, alongside acts that are prejudicial to maintaining communal harmony.
    • Section 125 of the Representation of People Act deems that any person, in connection with the election, promoting feelings of enmity and hatred on grounds of religion and caste is punishable with imprisonment up to three years and fine or both.
    • Section 505 criminalises multiple kinds of speech, including statements made with the intention of inducing, or which are likely to induce, fear or alarm to the public.
    • It covers incitement of violence against the state or another community, as well as promotion of class hatred.

    Recommendations and suggestions

    • The Law Commission in its 267th report published in March 2017, recommended introduction of new provisions within the penal code that specifically punish incitement to violence in addition to the existing ones.
    • Responsibility of Media: In recent years, hate speech in all its varieties has acquired a systemic presence in the media and the internet, from electoral campaigns to everyday life.
    • This epidemic of mediatised hate speech is, in fact, a global phenomenon.
    • According to the Washington Post, 2018 can be considered as “the year of online hate”.

    Conclusion

    Enough damage has been done. We cannot wait another day to address this growing challenge.

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  • Air Pollution

    Inter-State collaboration to deal with air pollution

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Context

    With the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) governing both Delhi and Punjab, collaboration for clean air should be the mantra for both State governments.

    Impact of air pollution on Delhi and Punjab

    • Punjab is home to nine of the 132 most polluted cities in the country identified by the Central Pollution Control Board.
    • In 2019, Delhi and Punjab together faced economic losses estimated to be approximately ₹18,000 crore due to worsening air pollution.
    • Therefore, by collaborating for clean air, both States can ensure improvements in citizen well-being and labour productivity.

     How can the two States collaborate?

    1] Arrive at a common understanding of sources

    • Those in charge of the two States must talk.
    • Setting aside their disagreements on the contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s air pollution, the States should arrive at a common understanding of sources polluting the region.

    2] Create platforms for knowledge exchange

    • Cross-learning on possible solutions: A common knowledge centre should be set up to facilitate cross-learning on possible solutions to developmental challenges in both States.
    • Such a centre would especially benefit Punjab given the host of measures that the Delhi government has already taken to improve air quality in Delhi.
    • Information on air quality levels and source assessment studies are critical in developing long-term strategies for pollution mitigation.

    3] Collaborate to execute proven solutions

    • Co-design solutions: The two States could co-design solutions that would improve air quality.
    • Institutionalise a task force: They could jointly institutionalise a task force comprising experts from State-run institutions to pilot these solutions and assess their impact.
    • This would ensure wider acceptance of the proposed solution, which has not been the case in the past.
    • For instance, the PUSA bio-decomposer (developed by the Indian Agricultural Research Institute), has received mixed reviews from farmers.
    • The decomposer only makes sense for early maturing varieties of paddy, as even with the decomposer, stubble would take between 25 to 30 days to decompose.
    • Therefore, it is of little use in high burn districts such as Sangrur, Punjab, where late-maturing paddy varieties are dominant.

    4] Create a market for diversified crop products

    • Moving away from paddy-wheat cycle: Shifting away from the ‘paddy-wheat cycle’ through crop diversification is a sure shot solution to stubble burning.
    • But, the lack of an assured market for agricultural products, other than wheat and paddy, has acted as a deterrent.
    • For years now, the Delhi government has toyed with the idea of introducing ‘Aam Aadmi kitchens’ in Delhi.
    • These community kitchens could potentially incorporate crops other than wheat and paddy in meals offered.

    5] Extending inter-State cooperation to other States in Indo-Gangetic plains

    • Both State governments should assert the need for extending inter-State cooperation to other States in the Indo-Gangetic plains in different inter-State forums.
    • One such forum is the Northern Zonal Council which has representation from Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
    • Both Delhi and Punjab must use this platform to highlight the need for coordination with neighbouring States to alleviate the pollution crisis.

    Conclusion

    With a collaborative plan of action, we can be optimistic about cleaner air in the years to come.

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  • Contention over South China Sea

    Explained: Red Star over Solomon Islands

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

    A recent leaked document has revealed that the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific has reached a deal with China. This has raised alarms in Washington and Canberra.

    Where is the Solomon Islands located?

    • The Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • It is part of the ethnically Melanesian group of islands in the Pacific and lies between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands that also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea).
    • It excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.

    Quick recap of its past

    • The islands, which were initially controlled by the British Empire during the colonial era, went through the hands of Germany and Japan.
    • It then went back to the UK after the Americans took over the islands from the Japanese during World War II.
    • The islands became independent in 1978 to become a constitutional monarchy under the British Crown, with a parliamentary system of government.
    • Nevertheless, its inability to manage domestic ethnic conflicts led to close security relations with Australia, which is the traditional first responder to any crisis in the South Pacific.

    What are the contents of the proposed deal?

    • The Framework Agreement has the potential to disturb the established security mechanisms in the South Pacific region.
    • The document explicitly enables Beijing to send its “police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces” to the islands on the latter government’s request, or if the former sees that the safety of its projects and personnel in the islands are at risk.
    • The document also provides for China’s naval vessels to utilise the islands for logistics support.
    • There have been speculations in the wake of this revelation that China might be building its next overseas naval base in Solomon Islands after Djibouti.

    What is the rationale for the Solomon Islands’ increasing proximity to China?

    • The Solomon Islands had cultivated strong ties with Taiwan, which ended with the emergence of the current government in Honiara.
    • In 2019, the regime change switched Taiwan for China.
    • This was supposedly after Beijing offered half a billion US dollars in financial aid, roughly five times what Taiwan spent on the islands in the past two decades.
    • It has been alleged by the pro-Taiwan Opposition that the incumbent government has been bribed by China.

    Why is China interested in the Solomon Islands?

    • Isolating Taiwan: The Solomon Islands was one among the six Pacific island states which had official bilateral relations with Taiwan.
    • Supporter in UN: The small Pacific island states act as potential vote banks for mobilising support for the great powers in international fora like the United Nations.
    • Larger EEZ: These states have disproportionately large maritime Exclusive Economic Zones when compared to their small sizes.
    • Natural resources: Solomon Islands, in particular, have significant reserves of timber and mineral resources, along with fisheries.
    • Countering US: But more importantly, they are strategically located for China to insert itself between America’s military bases in the Pacific islands and Australia.

    What does this mean for the established geopolitical configuration in the region?

    • Diminishing western influence: The Pacific islands, in the post-World War II scenario, were exclusively under the spheres of influence of the Western powers, in particular the US, UK, France and Australia and New Zealand.
    • Inserting into western hegemony: All of them have territorial possessions in the region, with the three nuclear powers among them having used the region as a nuclear weapons testing ground.
    • Shifting of dependencies: The smaller island nations of the region are heavily dependent on them, especially Australia as it is a resident power.

    Damage control by West

    • Australia has reacted with boosted finances, and by extending its current security mission till 2023 when the islands will host the Pacific Games.
    • The US has responded by considering reopening its embassy in Honiara after a long 29-year gap.
    • New Zealand has shed its typical restraint about China and has criticised it for attempting to militarise the Pacific islands.

    Chinese response to Indo-Pacific

    • It is to be noted that China’s rise in the South Pacific is not without opposition.
    • AUKUS is a recent example of how the established powers are reacting; although, to what extent they can mobilize individual governments against China is questionable.
    • Significant discontent has been brewing within and among the Pacific island states against China’s economic inroads and its adverse impact on their vulnerable economic and political systems.

     

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  • Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Global Implications

    Russia warns against NATO enlargement

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

    One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies warned NATO that if Sweden and Finland joined the US-led military alliance then Russia would have to bolster its defences in the region, including by deploying nuclear weapons.

    Why in news?

    • Finland, which shares a 1,300-km border with Russia, and Sweden are considering joining the NATO alliance.

    Why do they want to join NATO?

    • The possible accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO to get collective Western security against Russia — would be one of the biggest strategic consequences of the Ukraine war.
    • Finland gained independence from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during Second World War during which it lost some territory to Moscow.
    • Sweden has not fought a war for 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5 and why is it needed?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why has Article 5 not been invoked this time?

    • The reason is simple: Ukraine is a partner of the Western defence alliance but not a NATO member.
    • As a result, Article 5, or the Collective Defence Pledge, does not apply.
    • While NATO has said it will not be sending troops to Ukraine, it did invoke Article 4, which calls for a consultation of the alliance’s principal decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council.
    • In its history, it has only been activated half a dozen times.
    • But the fact that this time around eight-member nations chose to invoke it was enough to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation at a global level.

    What may prompt NATO to invoke Article 5?

    • NATO will invoke Article 5 only if Russia launches a full-blown attack on one of its allies.
    • Some top US officials have warned of the impact of some of Russia’s cyberattacks being felt in NATO countries.
    • When you launch cyberattacks, they don’t recognize geographic boundaries.
    • Some of that cyberattack could actually start shutting down systems in eastern Poland.

    But what is NATO’s problem with Russia?

    • Russia has long been opposed to Ukraine’s growing closeness with European institutions, particularly NATO.
    • The former Soviet republic shares borders with Russia on one side, and the European Union on the other.
    • After Moscow launched its attack, the US and its allies were quick to respond, imposing sanctions on Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth funds.

     

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  • Monsoon Updates

    What is the ‘Long Period Average’, IMD’s benchmark for monsoon prediction?

    Prelims Only | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 1: Geographical Features & Their Location

    India is likely to receive a normal monsoon for the fourth consecutive year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) for this year.

    What is Long Period Average (LPA)?

    • The IMD predicts a “normal”, “below normal”, or “above normal” monsoon in relation to a benchmark “long period average” (LPA).
    • The LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc.
    • LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded from June to September for the entire country, the amount of rain that falls every year varies from region to region and from month to month.
    • The IMD’s prediction of a normal monsoon is based on the LPA of the 1971-2020 period, during which India received 87 cm of rain for the entire country on average.
    • It has in the past calculated the LPA at 88 cm for the 1961-2010 period, and at 89 cm for the period 1951-2000.

    Why LPA is needed?

    • The IMD records rainfall data at more than 2,400 locations and 3,500 rain-gauge stations.
    • Because annual rainfall can vary greatly not just from region to region and from month to month, but also from year to year within a particular region or month.
    • An LPA is needed to smooth out trends so that a reasonably accurate prediction can be made.
    • A 50-year LPA covers for large variations in either direction caused by freak years of unusually high or low rainfall, as well as for the periodic drought years.
    • It also takes into account the increasingly common extreme weather events caused by climate change.

    Range of normal rainfall

    The IMD maintains five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale. These are:

    1. Normal or near normal, when the percentage departure of actual rainfall is +/-10% of LPA, that is, between 96-104% of LPA;
    2. Below normal, when departure of actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA, that is 90-96% of LPA;
    3. Above normal, when actual rainfall is 104-110% of LPA;
    4. Deficient, when departure of actual rainfall is less than 90% of LPA; and
    5. Excess, when the departure of actual rainfall is more than 110% of LPA.

    Also read:

    Various terms related to Indian Monsoon

     

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  • Coronavirus – Economic Issues

    [pib] SVANidhi se Samriddhi Program

    Schemes | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Government Scheme/Policies

    The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) has launched ‘SVANidhi se Samriddhi’ program in additional 126 cities across 14 States/ UTs.

    About PM SVANidhi Scheme

    • The Pradhan Mantri Street Vendor’s Atmanirbhar Nidhi Scheme is aimed at benefiting over 50 lakh vendors who had their businesses operational on or before March 24 2020.
    • It is a Central Sector Scheme.
    • The scheme was announced by Finance Minister as a part of the economic package for those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown.
    • The loans are meant to help kick-start activity for vendors who have been left without any income since the lockdown was implemented on March 25.
    • The scheme was valid until March 2022.

    What is SVANidhi se Samriddhi Program?

    • SVANidhi se Samriddhi program was started to provide social security benefits to street vendors for their holistic development and socio-economic upliftment.
    • Quality Council of India (QCI) is the implementing partner for the programme.
    • Under the program, socio-economic profiling of PMSVANidhi beneficiaries and their families is conducted to assess their eligibility for 8 Government of India’s welfare schemes and facilitate sanctions of eligible schemes.

    These schemes include:

    1. Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana,
    2. PM Suraksha Bima Yojana,
    3. Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana,
    4. Registration under Building and other Constructions Workers (Regulation of Employment and Conditions of Service) Act (BOCW),
    5. Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maandhan Yojana,
    6. National Food Security Act (NFSA) portability benefit – One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC),
    7. Janani Suraksha Yojana, and
    8. Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY).

     

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  • Solving India’s idol theft problem

    op-ed snap | History | Mains Paper 1: Arts & Culture

    Context

    Building an inventory of antiquities should be the first step in dealing with the problem.

    Measures taken by the worldwide organisations

    • CAG in its 2013 Report stated that “131 antiquities were stolen from monuments/sites and 37 antiquities from Site Museums from 1981 to 2012″
    • It added that in similar situations, worldwide, organisations took many more effective steps:
    • 1] Checking of catalogues of international auction house(s),
    • 2] Posting news of such theft on websites.
    • 3] Posting information about theft in the International Art Loss Registry.
    • 4] Sending photographs of stolen objects electronically to dealers and auction houses and intimate scholars in the field.
    • Lack of legal provisions: The report also stated that the ASI had never participated or collected information on Indian antiquities put on sale at well-known international auction houses viz. Sotheby’s, Christie’s, etc. as there was no explicit provision in the AAT (Antiquities and Art Treasures) Act, 1972 for doing so.

    International conventions and treaties

    • India is a signatory to the 1970 UNESCO Convention on the Means of Prohibiting and Preventing the Illicit Import, Export and Transfer of Ownership of Cultural Property. (We ratified it in 1977).
    • Perhaps we should also sign the 1995 UNIDROIT (International Institute for the Unification of Private Law) Convention on Stolen or Illegally Exported Cultural Objects.

    Lessons from Italy

    • Italy also suffers and several stolen antiquities have been returned by the US to Italy.
    • That being the case, it shouldn’t be surprising that many best practices originate in Italy.
    • The following list is illustrative.
    • (1) A specific law on protecting cultural heritage, with enhanced penalties;
    • (2) Centralised management before granting authorisation for archaeological research;
    • (3) Specialisation in cultural heritage for public prosecutors;
    • (4) An inter-ministerial committee for recovery and return of cultural objects;
    • (5) MOUs and bilateral agreements with other countries and international organisations to prevent illegal trafficking;
    • (6) Involvement of private organisations and individuals in protection;
    • (7) A complete inventory of moveable and immoveable cultural heritage, with detailed catalogues;
    • (8) Monitoring and inspection of cultural sites; and
    • (9) Centralised granting of export requests.

    Way forward

    • One could say the 2013 CAG Report did a bit of (8), but that was a one-off and isn’t a permanent solution.
    • This isn’t a binary, nor is it possible to accomplish everything overnight. However, incrementally, one can move towards (1), (3), (4), (5), (6), (8) and, especially, (7).
    • We should start with that inventory.

    Conclusion

    While fingers can rightly be pointed at Western museums and auction-houses (this isn’t only about the colonial era), there is internal connivance.

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  • Languages and Eighth Schedule

    Language sensitivity and provisions in Constitution

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters,Ministries & Departments Of The Government

    Context

    Language sensitivity has been a feature of selfhood in the case of every Indian language.

     Sensitivity to language

    • From ancient times, a sensitivity to language difference has almost been the core of Dravidic self-hood.
    • A similar sensitivity existed among the speakers of Prakrits in ancient times.
    • It was in one of the Prakrits that Mahavir had presented his teachings in the sixth century BCE.
    • Eighteen centuries later, Acharya Hemachandra, a major Jain scholar, poet, mathematician and philosopher, produced his Desinamamala, a treatise on the importance of Prakrit words used in Gujarat of his times as against those from Sanskrit.
    • Mahatma Gandhi, who defined the idea of selfhood for India in Hind Swaraj (1909), chose to write this iconic book in Gujarati.

    Constitutional provision

    • The official language used for communication between the States shall be the language that has been in use at the time of adoption of the Constitution.
    • The move from English to Hindi can take place only if, ‘two or more states agree’ for the shift.
    • Article 344 (4) provides for a ‘Committee consisting of thirty members’, ‘twenty’ from the Parliament and ‘ten’ from State assemblies, for safeguarding language-related provisions.

    The distribution between two ministries

    • The functions and the scope of the committee, as laid down by the Constitution, are further clarified by the practice of distribution of language as a subject between two Ministries, the Human Resource Development (HRD) Ministry and the Home Ministry.
    • The scope of the HRD Ministry extends to education and the promotion of cultural expression.
    • The Home Ministry’s scope extends to safeguarding relations of the States with the ‘union’, protecting the linguistic rights of language minorities and the promotion of Hindi.
    • The last of these, the Constitution states, has to be ‘without interference with other languages.

    Data on language decline

    • In 2011, Hindi speakers accounted for 43.63% of the total population, with a total of 52.83 crore speakers.
    • In 1971, the number was 20.27 crore, accounting for 36.99% of the total population.
    • Between 2001 and 2011, the growth in proportion of the population was 2.6%.
    • The next most spoken language, Bangla, had negative growth.
    • It was spoken by 8.30% of Indians in 1991, 8.11% in 2001 and by 8.03% in 2011.
    • Telugu, which slid from 7.87% in 1991, to 7.19% in 2001 and 6.70% in 2011, has a similar story to tell.
    • Tamil recorded 6.32% of the total population in 1991, 5.91% in 2001 and 5.70% in 2011.
    • The only major language to show decadal growth (though small) was Gujarati.
    • And the only small yet scheduled language to show good growth was Sanskrit.

    Reasons for Hindi’s growth

    • The 52.83 crore speakers of Hindi (as recorded in 2011) included not just the speaker of ‘Hindi’ but also those of more than 50 other languages.
    • Bhojpuri and most languages of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Jharkhand have also been pushed into the Hindi package.
    • Had the Census not included these other languages under Hindi, the strength of Hindi speakers would have gone down to about 39 crore, — just a little under 32% of the total population in 2011 — and would have looked not too different from those of other scheduled languages.
    • The data for English speakers is far more truthful. Census 2011 reports a total of 3,88,793 Indians as English speakers (2,59,678 men and 1,29,115 women).

    Hindi in comparison to other languages in the Eighth schedule

    • Among the languages included in the Eighth Schedule, Hindi falls within the younger lot of languages.
    • On the other hand, Tamil, Kannada, Kashmiri, Marathi, Oriya, Sindhi, Nepali and Assamiya have a much longer/older history.
    •  As a language of knowledge too, Tamil, Kannada, Bangla and Marathi (with their abundance of encyclopaedias and historical literature), quite easily outshine Hindi.

    Conclusion

    A language evolves slowly and cannot be forced to grow by issuing ordinances.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

    Nepal’s dwindling Forex Reserves

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

    In an unusual development, the Nepali PM sacked the head of its central bank accusing him of leaking sensitive information and for failing to perform his duties.

    What is the news?

    • Nepal’s forex reserves have plummeted by 18.5% to $9.58 billion in March from $11.75 billion in July 2021.
    • The current forex reserves are not enough to pay the government’s import bills beyond the next seven months or so.
    • Nepal’s central bank recently announced a ban on the import of vehicles and other luxury items, citing liquidity crunch and declining foreign exchange reserves.
    • It is rumoured that the Nepali economy will go into a crisis like Sri Lanka.

    Why have Nepal’s forex reserves fallen?

    • Nepal’s forex reserves situation appears healthy as of now as the country, unlike Sri Lanka, is not burdened by external debt.
    • There are, however, concerns that the lower middle-income economy is being battered repeatedly by external factors and that may precipitate a crisis sometime soon.
    • Nepal which is blessed with one of the finest tourism sectors in South Asia, because of the Himalayan mountain range, suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic as global tourist flow fell.
    • This is followed by the global energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • This has put extraordinary inflationary pressure on the economy.

    How bad is the situation?

    • Nepal’s economy is highly dependent on imports as the country buys a range of merchandise goods apart from fuel.
    • The prevailing weak economic indicators mean that Nepal is spending from its forex reserves faster than it can save.
    • Economists contend that Nepal will soon have double-digit inflation. All economic indicators are declining.
    • The real shortfall in forex reserves is because of the decline in foreign remittances which suffered during the pandemic when the Nepalese workforce abroad suffered job losses.

    Can the energy scene in Nepal escalate economic woes?

    • Nepal’s history shows that any uncertainty regarding fuel can trigger serious internal problems as was visible during the 2015-16 blockade when disruption of fuel supply from India.
    • Nepal’s primary supplier of energy is Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).
    • Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) pays IOC in two installments every month, on the 8th and the 23rd.
    • The NOC has been in crisis for months as high global prices depleted the company’s savings, prompting it to approach the government for a lifeline.
    • The Government of Nepal has agreed to provide NOC the necessary amount to continue supplies from IOC.
    • NOC’s financial status makes it unattractive for banks and as a result the public sector company does not enjoy confidence in the market.

    Paradoxical situation

    • The government is in a paradoxical situation: It has to control imports of products from which it earns the highest amount of tax revenue.
    • Luxury items are the country’s major source of revenue.
    • If revenue shrinks, an economic crisis could be imminent.

    Impact on elections

    • Nepal will hold local level polls next month which will be followed by general elections towards the end of the year.
    • The election process requires considerable financial allocation and Nepal has received support in the past for elections from international donors like the USAID.
    • These donors help in carrying out pre-election staff training and logistics that are part of any democratic process.
    • But there are uncertainties considering the bleak financial situation.
    • It will require at least 10 billion Nepali rupees for the election process and that will mean diversion of a large amount of resources for the democratic process.

    Quick recap: Sri Lankan Crisis

    • Like Nepal, Sri Lanka is a country with a small economy. The Sri Lankan economy is around 1.5 times bigger than Nepal’s.
    • Sri Lanka’s economic crisis was in the making since it suffered a terrorist attack in 2019 which hit its tourism industry, a major contributor to the GDP.
    • Then came the pandemic, which further wiped out tourism incomes. Then there were debt burdens in dollars.
    • The political leadership failed to act to address the looming crisis.
    • The Rajapaksha dynasty made some wrong moves—it cut taxes and started printing money, hugely devaluing the currency.
    • In what looked like a well-intentioned move towards organic farming, the county banned imports of chemical fertilisers. Paddy production failed. The country ran out of money to pay its bills.

    Is Nepal really going the way of Sri Lanka?

    • In Nepal, the situation is not as bleak.
    • Nepal’s current forex reserves are enough to pay for imports of goods and services for about seven and a half months.
    • Tourism, one of the major foreign currency earners, was hit hard by the pandemic, but its gradual revival has given a glimmer of hope.
    • Since Nepal’s currency is pegged to the Indian rupee, a massive devaluation shock is unlikely. Tourism is also rebounding, giving a fillip to foreign currency reserves.

    Back2Basics: Foreign Exchange Reserves

    • Foreign exchange reserves are important assets held by the central bank in foreign currencies as reserves.
    • They are commonly used to support the exchange rate and set monetary policy.
    • In India’s case, foreign reserves include Gold, Dollars, and the IMF’s quota for Special Drawing Rights.
    • Most of the reserves are usually held in US dollars, given the currency’s importance in the international financial and trading system.
    • Some central banks keep reserves in Euros, British pounds, Japanese yen, or Chinese yuan, in addition to their US dollar reserves.

     

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