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  • Contention over South China Sea

    The big deal behind the ruckus over AUKUS

    IOCRop-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: AUKUS, Quad

    Mains level: Focus areas and challenges for AUKUS

    The announcement of the new Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral security pact has naturally generated animated debate in strategic circles, before the QUAD summit.

    What is the AUKUS?

    • The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia.
    • The nuclear-powered submarines will give Australia naval heft in the Pacific, where China has been particularly aggressive.
    • While the US and Britain have had the capability for decades, Australia has never had an n-sub.

    Motive: To counter China

    • China has nuclear-powered submarines, as well as submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.
    • The three signatories to the AUKUS deal have made it clear though, that their aim is not to arm the new subs with nuclear weapons.
    • China has been one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, but the relationship has soured over the last few years.
    • It was in consideration of Chinese sensibilities that Australia had pulled out of the Malabar Naval Exercise with the US, India, and Japan after participating in the 2007 edition (of which Singapore too, was part).
    • Australia came back to Malabar in 2020, which marked the first time in 13 years that the navies of the four Quad nations war-gamed together.

    Australia at the Centrestage

    • This is primarily because a nuclear-powered submarine gives a navy the capability to reach far out into the ocean and launch attacks.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine offers long distances dives, at a higher speed, without being detected gives a nation the ability to protect its interests far from its shores.
    • In the context of the AUKUS agreement, nuclear-powered submarines will give the Royal Australian Navy the capability to go into the South China Sea.
    • It conclusively puts to rest a long-standing domestic debate on whether it was time for Australia to assess China through the strategic lens, overcoming the purely mercantile considerations that tended to dominate its China policy.

    What makes nuclear submarines so important?

    • A nuclear-powered submarine is classified as an “SSN” under the US Navy hull classification system, wherein ‘SS’ is the symbol for submarine, and ‘N’ stands for nuclear.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine that can launch ballistic missiles is called “SSBN”.
    • Conventional diesel-engine submarines have batteries that keep and propel — though not very fast — the vessel underwater. The life of these batteries can vary from a few hours to a few days.
    • The newer Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines have additional fuel cells that allow them to stay underwater for longer and move faster than the conventional vessels.
    • However, the fuel cells are used only at strategic times, when the endurance to remain submerged is required.
    • Both conventional and AIP subs need to come to the surface to recharge their batteries using the diesel engine.
    • The diesel engine also propels the vessel on the surface. However, the fuel cells of AIP can only be charged at on-land stations, not while at sea.

    Why is France unhappy about Australia getting these submarines?

    • The deal has complicated the relations between France and Australia, and also France and the US.
    • France is upset as it has been kept out of the loop. But, with the core objective of pushing back against China’s aggression, all five countries — US, UK, Australia, France and India — are on the same track.
    • The deal between France and Australia had been marked by delays and other issues.
    • The first submarine was expected to be operational around 2034.

    Does India have nuclear-powered submarines?

    • Yes, India is among the six nations that have SSNs. The other five are the US, the UK, Russia, France and China.
    • India has had the capacity since it got the Soviet-built K-43 Charlie-class SSN in 1987.
    • Commissioned with the Red Fleet of the USSR in 1967, it was leased to the Indian Navy, and was rechristened INS Chakra. The submarine was decommissioned in 1991.

    Indo-Pacific is the core issue

    • France, which like the UK has historically been an Indo-Pacific power with territories and bases across the region.
    • It has participated in a multi-nation naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal with the four Quad nations.
    • There is no gainsaying the fact that rapid accretion in China’s economic and military capacities, but more particularly its belligerence, has led to a tectonic shift in regional security paradigms.
    • Several countries have been obliged to review their defence preparedness in response to China’s rising military power and its adverse impact on regional stability.

    A chance for the UK

    • The AUKUS pact is also an emphatic assertion of the relevance of the U.S.-Australia Security Treaty (ANZUS).
    • New Zealand, the outlier, walked away in 1984 from the treaty that ironically still bears its initials.
    • Its “nuclear-free” stance ran counter to the U.S. Navy’s non-disclosure policy in regard to nuclear weapons aboard visiting vessels.
    • Close ties notwithstanding, Australia’s future fleet of nuclear submarines will not be permitted access to New Zealand’s ports or waters, as averred by PM Jacinda Ardern.
    • AUKUS provides a fresh opportunity to the United Kingdom to reinsert itself more directly into the Indo-Pacific.
    • It is already a member of the Five Eyes (FVEY), an intelligence-sharing alliance built on Anglo-Saxon solidarity (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.).

    AUKUS is not a substitute for the Quad

    • It does not erode the Quad’s significance as a platform for consultations and coordination on broader themes of maritime security, free and open trade, health care, critical technologies, supply chains and capacity-building.
    • The AUKUS submarine deal, on the other hand, is an undiluted example of strategic defence collaboration, and a game-changer at that.

    Chinese reception of AUKUS

    • China, expectedly, has strongly criticised AUKUS and the submarine deal as promoting instability and stoking an arms race.

    The exposed double standards

    • China has the world’s fastest-growing fleet of sub-surface combatants.
    • This includes the Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 nuclear-powered Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
    • Its nuclear submarines are on the prowl in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Yet, China denies Australia and others the sovereign right to decide on their defence requirements.

    What’s in the box of AUKUS?

    Ans. Greater role for Australia

    • Australia’s proposed nuclear submarines will give quite a punch in terms of a stand-off capability.
    • The growing focus on anti-submarine warfare across a more expansive region is clearly altering calculations.
    • Australia’s nuclear submarines would help create a new balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, especially in tandem with the U.S. and the U.K.
    • It will now have a more meaningful naval deterrence of its own to protect its sovereign interests.
    • It is set to play a more robust role in ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Way forward

    • The setback ‘down under’ may spur France to focus afresh on partners such as India.
    • India must strike a balance between continuing imports and implementing the all-important Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing.
    • France should take AUKUS as a business deal.
    • Its momentary reaction at the cancellation of the contract by Australia should soon subside.
    • As a major Indo-Pacific power, France is an important part of the regional security calculus.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India – EU

    Is there a role for India in divided AUKUS?

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: AUKUS

    Mains level: Paper 2- Role for India in issues over AUKUS

    Context

    France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia in a diplomatic slap intended to convey its anger over a deal forged in secrecy that saw Paris lose a multi billion dollar submarine contract.

    Depth and diversity of India’s relations

    • That Delhi today is a part of a difficult conversation between the US, UK, France, Europe, and Australia points to the growing depth and diversity of India’s relations with different parts of the West.
    • Popular and academic discourse on India’s foreign policy has been obsessed with the concept of “non-alignment” —was about keeping distance from the West as a whole.
    • India’s contemporary diplomacy, in contrast, takes a nuanced view of internal dynamics in the West, and recognises the political agency of individual states, and develops wide-ranging relationships with the Western nations.

    Relations with France

    • Paris has always taken an independent view of the world, while remaining within the broad framework of the American alliance.
    •  In the 1990s, Paris championed the construction of a multipolar world to constrain American “hyperpower” but India did not join it.
    • The last few years, however, have seen an intensification of India’s strategic engagement with France.
    • For example, India has overcome the earlier reluctance to work with France on Indian Ocean security.

    Engagement as collective and sub-region

    • The government has also stepped up on the political engagement with Europe as a collective as well as its sub-regions — from Baltics to the Balkans and from Iberia to Mitteleuropa.
    •  As India discovers that every European nation, from tiny Luxembourg to a rising Poland, has something to offer, Europe has become a thriving hub of India’s international relations.

    Relations with the UK

    • Due to the bitter colonial legacy, relations between India and UK have always been underdeveloped.
    • In the last couple of years, India has made a determined effort to build a new partnership with Britain, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, a leading financial hub, a technological powerhouse, and punches well above its weight in global affairs.

    Relations with “Anglosphere”

    • India’s neglect of London also meant Delhi had no time for the “Anglosphere” that binds the UK to Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
    • Many had presumed that the Anglosphere was irrelevant — AUKUS, however, is a reminder that Anglo-Saxon political bonds endure.
    • Instead of treating the Anglosphere with scepticism, India has begun to vigorously engage with the “settler colonies” that have so much to offer India — from natural resources to higher education and critical technologies.
    • The UK and its settler colonies have long been the preferred destination for the Indian diaspora (besides the US).
    • Leveraging diaspora politics: While the diaspora tends to connect the domestic politics of the Anglosphere with that of India, Delhi is figuring out that the diaspora politics can be played both ways.

    Relations with Japan and Australia

    • The transformation of India’s relations with Australia has occurred despite entrenched scepticism in the foreign policy bureaucracy.
    • Finally, Japan has been a part of the West in the post-War era and Delhi’s relations with Tokyo have never been as rounded as they are today. They are also fellow members of the Quad.

    Way forward for India

    • This wide-ranging engagement with the West should help Delhi convey two important messages to its partners this week.
    • Not undermining the larger goal: India needs to remind France, Australia, the UK and US of the shared interests in securing the Indo-Pacific and the dangers of letting the current quarrel undermine that larger goal.
    • Effective deterrence in Indo-Pacific: The other is to highlight the region’s vast requirements for effective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific;
    • And that there is enough room for the US, UK, France, and Europe to collaborate with Indo-Pacific partners in overlapping coalitions to develop high technology and defence-industrial cooperation in all the areas highlighted by AUKUS — effective underwater capabilities to AI, quantum computing and cyber warfare.
    • Deeper cooperation: India’s interests lie in deeper strategic cooperation with France and Europe as well as the Quad and the Anglosphere.

    Conclusion

    India’s diverse relationships in the West must be deployed in full measure to prevent a split in the Indo-Pacific coalition.

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  • Industrial Sector Updates – Industrial Policy, Ease of Doing Business, etc.

    The end of the doing business rankings

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Ease of Doing Business Report

    Mains level: Read the attached story

    The World Bank Group has scrapped its flagship publication, the ‘Doing Business’ report.

    Doing Business Report

    • This report publishes the influential annual ranking of countries on the Ease of Doing Business (EDB) index.
    • It ranks countries by the simplicity of rules framed for setting up and conducting businesses.

    Utility of the index

    The World Bank’s decision has wide ramifications, as the index serves varied purposes.

    • Many countries showcase improved ranking to signal market-friendly policies to attract foreign investments. National leaders often set EDB rank targets.
    • This helps them measure domestic policies against global “best practices” and browbeat domestic critics.
    • India, for instance, wanted its administration to ensure that India breaks into the top 50 ranks of the EDB index.
    • Some countries seem to use their political heft to improve their rank, polish their international image and sway public opinion (as appears to be China’s case).

    Issues with the credibility of the report

    • The Group acted on its commissioned study to examine the ethical issues flagged in preparing the 2018 and 2020 editions of the EDB index.
    • It is accused of having exerted pressure on the internal team working on the Doing Business report to falsely boost China’s rank by doctoring the underlying data.
    • Similarly, tensions were also reportedly brought to bear in the case of Saudi Arabia’s rank, among others.

    EDB index rank vs economic outcomes

    • There is a disconnect between the stellar rise in EDB index rank and economic outcomes.
    • The theory underlying the EDB index could be suspect, the measurement and data could be faulty, or both.
    • For example, China’s phenomenal economic success, especially its agricultural performance (after the reforms in 1978), is perhaps the most unmistakable evidence demonstrating that lack of clarity of property rights may not be the binding constraint in a market economy.
    • What matters is economic incentives.
    • Measuring regulatory functions underlying the index could be tricky and subjective and possibly politically motivated as well, as the controversies surrounding the index seem to suggest.

    EODB in India: At what cost

    Ans. Weakening labour regulations

    • Closer home, India has weaponised the mandate to improve the rank in the EDB index to whittle down labour laws and their enforcement and bring them close to the free-market ideal of ‘hire and fire’.
    • Most States have emulated Maharashtra’s lead of administrative fiat, which renders labour laws toothless by dismantling official labour inspection systems and allowing employers to file self-regulation reports.
    • The government has farmed out critical safety regulations such as annual inspection and certification of industrial boilers to ‘third party’ private agencies.
    • The Labour Department’s inspection is now not mandated; it is optional only by prior intimation to employers.

    Implications of such moves

    • Such abdication of the government’s responsibility towards workers has reportedly affected industrial relations.
    • The workers’ strike at Wistron’s iPhone assembly factory in Karnataka last year is an example.
    • Further, severe industrial accidents are rising, damaging life and productive industrial assets.

    Why did World Bank scrap the index?

    • Investigations into “data irregularities” in preparing the EDB index, as brought out by the independent agency, seems to confirm many shortcomings repeatedly brought to light for years now.
    • The index appears motivated to support the free-market ideal.
    • It is dressed up under scientific garb and is underpinned by seemingly objective methods and data collection.
    • Strong leaders (and motivated officials) seem to have used their position to manipulate the index to suit their political and ideological ends.

    Conclusion

    • India claimed the success of its Make in India initiative by relying on its ranking on the EDB index without tangible evidence.
    • Handing over law enforcement to employers by self-reporting compliance seems to have increased industrial unrest and accidents.
    • It perhaps calls for honest soul-searching as to what havoc a questionable benchmark can wreak.

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  • FDI in Indian economy

    Holding transnational corporations accountable

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: BIT

    Mains level: Paper 3- Using BITs to hold TNCs accountable

    Context

    Given the enormous power that transnational corporations (TNCs) wield, questions about their accountability have arisen often. There have been many instances where the misconduct of TNCs has come to light such as the corruption scandal involving Siemens in Germany.

    Holding TNCs accountable: Background

    • The effort was made at the UN to develop a multilateral code of conduct on TNCs.
    • However, due to differences between developed and developing countries, it was abandoned in 1992.
    • Role of BITs: Aim was to use international law to institutionalise the forces of economic globalisation, leading to the spread of BITs.
    • Asymmetry in BITs: These treaties promised protection to foreign investors under international law by bestowing rights on them and imposing obligations on states.
    • This structural asymmetry in BITs, which confer rights on foreign investors but impose no obligations, relegated the demand for investor accountability.
    • In 2014, the UN Human Rights Council established an open-ended working group with the mandate to elaborate on an international legally binding instrument on TNCs and other businesses concerning human rights.
    • Since then, efforts are being made towards developing a treaty and finding ways to make foreign corporations accountable.
    • The latest UN report is a step in that direction.

    UN report on human rights-compatible international investment agreements

    • The UN working group on ‘human rights, transnational corporations (TNCs) and other businesses’ has published a new report on human rights-compatible international investment agreements.
    • It urges states to ensure that their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are compatible with international human rights obligations.
    • It emphasises investor obligations at the international level i.e., the accountability of TNCs in international law.

    Using BITs to hold TNCs accountable

    • BITs can be harnessed to hold TNCs accountable under international law.
    • The issue of fixing accountability of foreign investors came up in an international law case, Urbaser v. Argentina (2016).
    • Subjecting corporates to international law: In this case, the tribunal held that corporations can be subjects of international law and are under a duty not to engage in activities that harm or destroy human rights.
    • The case played an important role in bringing human rights norms to the fore in BIT disputes.
    • It also opened up the possibility of using BITs to hold TNCs accountable provided the treaty imposes positive obligations on foreign investors.
    • Recalibrating BITs: In the last few years, states have started recalibrating their BITs by inserting provisions on investor accountability.
    • Issues with BITs: However, these employ soft law language and are hortatory.
    • They do not impose positive and binding obligations on foreign investors.
    • They fall short of creating a framework to hold TNCs accountable under international law.

    Takeaways for India

    • The recent UN report has important takeaways for India’s ongoing reforms in BITs.
    • Best endeavour clauses not enough: India’s new Model BIT of 2016 contains provisions on investor obligations.
    • However, these exist as best endeavour clauses. They do not impose a binding obligation on the TNC.
    • Impose positive binding obligations: India should impose positive and binding obligations on foreign investors, not just for protecting human rights but also for imperative issues such as promoting public health.
    • The Nigeria-Morocco BIT, which imposes binding obligations on foreign investors such as conducting an environmental impact assessment of their investment, is a good example.

    Consider the question ” Ensuring that the bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are compatible with international human rights obligations in the need of the hour. In light of this, assess the progress made globally on this issue and suggest way forward for India in framing its BITs.”

    Conclusion

    Reforms would help in harnessing BITs to ensure the answerability of foreign investors and creating a binding international legal framework to hold TNCs to account.

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  • Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code

    EoDB at risk if issue of appointments to tribunals is not resolved

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: NCLAT, NCLT

    Mains level: Read the attached story

    While hearing a challenge to the Tribunal Reforms Act, 2021, the Supreme Court came down heavily on the government of India for vacancies not being filled on time. This could severely impact the ease of doing business in India, said the court.

    Background

    • The government has lauded the role of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC), for improving India’s ranking on the “Ease of Doing Business” index over the last couple of years.
    • However, the SC’s observation is spot-on as vacancies in the tribunals have slowed down insolvency resolution due to the huge pendency of cases.
    • When the SC made its observations, the NCLT had only 30 members against a total strength of 63.

    About NCLAT and NCLT

    • National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) was constituted under Section 410 of the Companies Act, 2013 for hearing appeals against the orders of National Company Law Tribunal(s) (NCLT) in 2016.
    • NCLAT is also the Appellate Tribunal to hear and dispose of appeals against any direction issued or decision made or order passed by the Competition Commission of India (CCI).
    • It is also the Appellate Tribunal to hear and dispose of appeals against the orders of the National Financial Reporting Authority.

    Difference between NCLT AND NCLAT

    NCLT

    NCLAT
    ·         NCLT is established as per Section 408 of companies act, 2013 ·         NCLAT is established as per Section 410 of companies act, 2013
    ·         It holds primary jurisdiction on cases of insolvency and bankruptcy ·         It holds appellate jurisdictions over the cases judged by NCLT
    ·         NCLT accepts and analyzes the evidence from creditors and debtors ·         NCLAT accepts and analyzes the decision made by NCLT
    ·         NCLT collects facts and evidences ·         NCLAT analyzes facts and evidences

    CJI’s reservations over Pendency

    • The NCLAT had a sanctioned strength of a chairperson plus 11 members but its functioning strength was of eight members.
    • Both the NCLT and NCLAT have been without chairpersons for several months respectively.
    • These vacancies are concerning because as of May 31, 13,170 insolvency petitions were pending before benches of the NCLT.
    • Of these, 2,785 petitions have been filed by financial creditors and 5,973 by operational creditors.

    Note: The IBC created an institution called an information utility to be the repository of information on debts and defaults in India.  The sole utility in India at present is the National E-Governance Services Ltd. (NeSL).

    Basis of these cases

    • The financial creditors are facing criticism for taking haircuts as high as 90 per cent against their claims.
    • A longer approval period would entail greater value erosion of a corporate debtor which would be an unattractive proposition for any prospective resolution applicant.
    • This uncertainty can be cured by a faster approval process by the NCLTs by the creation of more benches and filling up of current vacancies.

    Why is the Supreme Court fuming over vacancies?

    (a) Covid impact

    • The Indian economy is recovering from the adverse effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
    • During the downturn, financial institutions and banks have suffered higher defaults than usual, impacting the robustness of the system.
    • Lending has decreased during this time and can only be encouraged now by shoring up the mechanism under the IBC to inspire confidence in creditors.

    (b) Non-compliance by the govt

    • The SC had granted time to the government till September 13 to take substantial steps in this regard, which was partially complied with by appointing 18 members.
    • The government, however, failed to avoid embarrassment as the CJI expressed his anger at the appointment process which had ignored candidates recommended by the selection committee.

    (c) Burden of pendency

    • There is a real risk of the court taking matters into its own hands by making appointments itself, or by taking harsher steps like transferring jurisdiction under the IBC to high courts.
    • One hopes that the situation is resolved quickly to make strict time-bound insolvency resolutions a reality.

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  • Labour, Jobs and Employment – Harmonization of labour laws, gender gap, unemployment, etc.

    Rising unemployment is yet to receive the attention it deserves from government

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Issues relating growth and development, employment

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: LFPR

    Mains level: Paper 3- Rising unemployment

    Context

    India’s unemployment rate in August was 8.3 per cent. This was higher than the 7 per cent recorded in July. The month-to-month variations notwithstanding, these are all very high unemployment rates.

    Why inflation gets more attention in India than unemployment?

    • Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) results showed the historically high unemployment rate of 6.1 per cent for 2017-18 (July to June). It was at a 45-year high.
    • New norm at 7-8 per cent: Till then, India was used to recording an unemployment rate of around 3 per cent. 
    • Today, an unemployment rate of 7-8 per cent seems to be the norm and such levels do not seem to matter.
    • The unemployment rate is not the most important labour market indicator for a country like India.
    • Why inflation gets preference: Between inflation and unemployment, the two economic indicators conjoined theoretically by the Phillips curve, it is inflation that wields political power.
    • Inflation hurts almost the entire population.
    • Equally importantly, high inflation rates can upset financial markets that in turn exert pressure on regulators to keep inflation in control.
    • Unemployment directly impacts only the unemployed, who don’t count much.
    • Worse still, society perceives being unemployed as an individual shortcoming, and not an outcome of a macroeconomic malaise.

    What does low labour force participation rate (LFPR) indicate about the labour market in India?

    • The unemployment rate is a measure of the economy’s inability to provide jobs only for those who seek work.
    • But, in India, very often people do not look for jobs in the belief that none are available which is reflected in a low labour force participation rate (LFPR).
    • India’s LFPR is at around 40 per cent when the global rate is close to 60 per cent.
    • It is important that this belief in the futility of a job hunt is overcome by an explosive creation of new good quality formal jobs.

    Why employment rate is a useful indicator for India

    • A useful labour market metric for a country like India is the employment rate.
    • This measures the proportion of the population over 14 years of age that is employed.
    • The definition of employment needs to be changed, at present, engaging in some economic activity for just one hour in any of the past seven days is counted as employment.
    • India’s record in providing employment to its people has been abysmally poor.
    • CMIE’s definition of employment indicates that in 2016-17, only 42.8 per cent of the working-age population was employed.
    •  In the year of the pandemic, it fell to 36.5 per cent.

    Reverse migration in employment from manufacturing to low productivity employment

    • People are moving away from factories as manufacturing jobs shrink, to farms that provide shelter largely in the form of disguised unemployment.
    • It cannot be the desire of a nation to move people away from high productivity, better quality jobs in manufacturing to low productivity employment in agriculture or as gardeners or security guards in the household sector.
    • Employment opportunities need to expand in areas where labour is deployed to deliver higher productivity for enterprise and higher returns to labour.

    Way forward

    • Increase investment: A large part of the solution to this lack of adequate jobs is in increasing investments.
    • Focus on demand size: For this, the investment climate needs to be business-friendly and government interventions must shift away from supply-side support to spurring demand.

    Conclusion

    The government needs to come up with policies for generating employment opportunities and stemming the reverse migration from manufacturing jobs to low productivity employment.

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  • Industrial Sector Updates – Industrial Policy, Ease of Doing Business, etc.

    National Monetization Pipeline shows promise — and limits

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: National Monetization Pipeline

    Mains level: Issues with Asset Monetization in India

    The government of India recently announced an asset monetization plan, wherein existing public assets worth Rs 6 trillion would be monetized by leasing them out to private operators for fixed terms.

    The plan has generated a lot of print so it is worth discussing its pros and cons.

    About NMP

    • The identified assets are primarily concentrated in roads, railways, power, oil and gas, and telecoms.
    • The lease proceeds are expected to be used for new infrastructure investment which, in turn, will contribute to the government’s ambitious Rs 111 trillion infrastructure investment plan.

    Important issues raised by the plan

    [I] How much should the government expect to raise from the plan?

    Revenue Potential

    • In deciding the amount to bid for leasing rights, bidders compute the present discounted value of the annual cash flow from the asset for the duration of the lease.
    • The biggest uncertainty in this calculation surrounds the cash flow on these public assets.
    • Rates of return estimates on public capital in the US have been estimated to be upwards of 15 per cent.
    • However, this is India with its myriad uncertainties regarding pricing, bill collection, asset quality, regulatory framework as well as policy reversals.
    • Hence there is significant uncertainty regarding the revenue potential of the plan.

    [II] Is the plan likely to increase the efficiency of the economy?

    a. Efficiency of the economy

    • The NITI Aayog believes that the private sector is better at managing and operating the identified public assets than the public sector.
    • There is certainly scope for efficiency gains. However, there are significant efficiency impediments too.
    • One set of efficiency issues surrounds usage fees. A second factor related to efficiency is the effect of the plan on competition.

    b. Stressed sectors

    • The identified assets belong to core sectors of the economy spanning transport, energy and communication.
    • Sectors like telecoms and ports have already seen rising concentration of ownership in recent years.
    • An acceleration and extension of this trend to other segments of the infrastructure landscape would be seriously worrying.
    • While some of this could well be rationalized through the stipulation of rules for the allocation of leasing rights, the plan is silent on this.

    c. Financing of the lease bids

    • If bidders finance their bids using domestic savings, there is a clear opportunity cost of the plan since these savings would otherwise have been invested in alternative projects.
    • Moreover, the bidding for scarce domestic savings by prospective investors will also raise domestic interest rates which will put downward pressure on domestic private investment.
    • It would also be worth reminding ourselves that the last round of PPP-based infrastructure funding routed through banks ended up with a heap of NPAs in public sector bank balance sheets.

    Biggest flaw of the NMP

    • No clear objective: The biggest drawback of the plan is that it fails to articulate the reasons for public sector inefficiency in asset management.
    • No focus on management: If it is personnel-related, then privatizing management may be the right answer. If the inefficiency is related to constraints on pricing and bill collection, then the roots of the problem are unlikely to be addressed by leasing out their management to private operators.
    • No clear assessment of underperforming sectors: The plan document also fails to outline whether the identified brownfield assets are the public sector’s highest cash flow assets or the relatively under-performing ones.

    Better alternatives for the govt

    • The way around this is to welcome foreign investors to bid for the assets.
    • But this will require serious political will since entrenching foreign influence on Indian public assets will generate controversy.
    • On this aspect too, the announced plan is low on details.

    Way forward

    • If the private sector is indeed more efficient in running infrastructure assets, the most efficient strategy would be to lease out the worst-performing assets rather than the best performing ones.
    • The NITI Aayog would do the policy landscape a big service by following up the proposal with a white paper that addresses some of these efficiency-related issues.
    • Without that, the monetization plan, while intriguing, is incomplete.

    Conclusion

    • A monetization plan envisages the private sector paying an upfront fee to the government which the government uses for new infrastructure investment.
    • As much as private bidders finance themselves by borrowing, this amounts to the private sector borrowing and handing over the funds to the government to invest in infrastructure.
    • This could enhance efficiency in infrastructure investment only if the government faces higher interest rates in capital markets than the private sector.

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  • Coronavirus – Economic Issues

    Building a resilient economy

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: TRIPS waiver

    Mains level: Paper 3- Sustaining recovery

    Context

    To revive and sustain growth, action is needed both at the international and national levels.

    Hopes of V-shaped recovery of Indian economy

    • The National Statistical Office (NSO) had recently estimated that India’s economic growth has surged to 20.1% in the April-June quarter.
    • In its recently launched Trade and Development Report 2021, UNCTAD has estimated global growth to hit 5.3% in 2021 and growth in India to hit 7.2%.
    • According to the report, India showed strong quarterly growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2021, on the back of the momentum of the second half of 2020 and supported by government spending in goods and services.
    • Given the inherent fragilities, India’s growth in 2021 as a whole is estimated at 7.2%, which is one of the fastest compared to most countries in the analysis.
    • But it is still not sufficient to regain the pre-COVID-19 income level.
    • However, going forward, the economy is likely to experience a deceleration of growth to 6.7% growth in 2022.

    Ways to sustain growth

    1) Efforts at the International level

    • To revive and sustain growth, action is needed both at the international and national levels.
    • TRIPS waiver: The report strongly supports India’s proposed temporary suspension of the World Trade Organization TRIPS waiver.
    • Waiver is considered as a necessary step to enable the local manufacture of vaccines in developing countries

    2) Steps to be taken at the national level

    • Resilience: At the national level, COVID-19 has reinforced the idea that resilience is a public good and responsibility of the state.
    • It has to be delivered through a robust public sector with the resources to make the necessary investments, provide the complementary services and coordinate the multiple activities that building resilience involves.
    • Mobilising financial resources: We need a financial system that accords a more significant role to public banks, breaks up and guards against the emergence of megabanks, and exercises stronger regulatory oversight is more likely to deliver a healthier investment climate.
    • Minimum wage:  Wages are a critical source of demand and their growth can stimulate productivity and underpin a strong social contract.
    • Minimum wages and related labour legislation are needed for appropriate protection against abusive practices.
    • Policies for informal sector: Policies targeting informality are of particular importance, especially for a country like India with a large informal economy.

    Conclusion

    It is important to build a healthy, diversified economy. For this, a strong industrial policy focusing on building digital capacities is needed. A resilient economy goes beyond offering a residual category of safety nets designed to stop those left behind from falling further.

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  • Labour, Jobs and Employment – Harmonization of labour laws, gender gap, unemployment, etc.

    E-Shram

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Laws, Institutions & Bodies Constituted For The Vulnerable Sections

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: E-Shram Portal

    Mains level: National database for workers: Prospects and challenges

    The E-Shram portal has come into existence more than a decade after the passage of the Unorganized Workers’ Social Security Act in 2008.

    E-Shram

    • On August 26, 2021, the Ministry of Labour and Employment (MOLE) launched the E-Shram, the web portal for creating a National Database of Unorganized Workers (NDUW), which will be seeded with Aadhaar.
    • It seeks to register an estimated 398-400 million unorganized workers and to issue an E-Shram card.

    Better late than never move

    • It has come about even after repeated nudging by the Supreme Court of India.
    • It is the result of state apathy.
    • Had the Central and the State governments begun these legally mandated processes on time, much of the distress of lakhs of vulnerable workers would have been avoided.
    • In fact, the political class owe an ‘apology’ to informal workers.

    Issues with E-Shram

    (A) Time constraints

    • Long process: Given the gigantic nature of registering each worker, it will be a long-drawn process.
    • No gestation period: The Government has not mentioned a gestation period to assess its strategy and efficiency.
    • No hasty process: Employers are or required their workers to register even.While the Government can appeal to them, any penal measure will hurt the ease of doing business.

    (B) Pandemic hides

    • Considering the estimated 380 million workers as the universe of registration — debatable as the novel coronavirus pandemic has pushed lakhs of workers into informality.

    (C) Data security

    • Privacy: One of the vital concerns of e-portals is data security, including its potential abuse especially when it is a mega-sized database.
    • No national framework yet: There are also media reports pointing out the absence of a national architecture relating to data security.
    • Local server issues: It has been reported that in some States such as Maharashtra, the server was down for a few days.

    (D) Structural issue

    • Aadhaar seeding: Many workers will not have an Aadhaar-seeded mobile or even a smartphone. Aadhaar-seeding is a controversial issue with political overtones, especially in the North-eastern regions.
    • Eligibility: There are several issues concerning the eligibility of persons to register as well as the definitional issues.
    • Exclusion: By excluding workers covered by EPF and ESI, lakhs of contract and fixed-term contract workers will be excluded from the universe of UW. Hazardous establishments employing even a single worker will have to be covered under the ESI, which means these workers also will be excluded.
    • No benefits for the aged: The NDUW excludes millions of workers aged over 59 from its ambit, which constitutes age discrimination.

    (D) Complex identities of workers

    • Migration: Many are circular migrant workers and they quickly, even unpredictably, move from one trade to another.
    • Mixed work: Many others perform formal and informal work as some during non-office hours may belong to the gig economy, for example as an Uber taxi or a Swiggy employee. They straddle formal and informal sectors.
    • Gig workers: Even though MOLE has included gig workers in this process, it is legally unclear whether the gig/platform worker can be classified first as a worker at all.

    (E) Other impediments

    • Dependence on States: The central government will have to depend on the State governments for this project to be successful.
    • Lack of coordination: In many States, the social dialogue with the stakeholders especially is rather weak or non-existent. The success of the project depends on the involvement of a variety of stakeholders apart from trade unions.
    • Corruption: There is also the concern of corruption as middle-service agencies such as Internet providers might charge exorbitant charges to register and print the E-Shram cards.

    Benefits: No immediate carrot

    • Workers stand to gain by registration in the medium to long run.
    • But the instant benefit of accident insurance upto ₹0.2 million to registered workers is surely not an attractive carrot.
    • The main point of attraction is the benefits they stand to gain during normal and crisis-ridden periods such as the novel coronavirus pandemic now which the Government needs to disseminate properly.

    Way forward

    • E-Shram is a vital system to provide hitherto invisible workers much-needed visibility.
    • It will provide the Labour Market Citizenship Document to them.
    • The govt should go one step further for triple linkage for efficient and leakage-less delivery of all kinds of benefits and voices to workers/citizens: One-Nation-One-Ration Card (ONOR), E-Shram Card (especially bank account seeded) and the Election Commission Card.
    • Last but not least, registrations cannot be a source of exclusion of a person from receiving social assistance and benefits.

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  • Goods and Services Tax (GST)

    How not to deal with recession

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: National Development Council

    Mains level: Paper 3- Dealing with the recession

    Context

    The Centre is facing a serious financial crisis because of the exigencies created by the pandemic and its own policies. However, monetising assets and cutting down funds to states could aggravate the crisis.

    3 Policies aggravating the crisis

    1) NMP and disinvestment

    • Union Finance Minister, while announcing the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP), said that asset monetisation is based on the philosophy of creation through monetisation and is aimed at “tapping private sector investment for new infrastructure creation”.
    • Loss of dividend: Disinvestment of profitable Navratna companies will result in a loss of dividend, a major source of income for the Centre.
    • Loss due to tax exemptions: Tax exemptions to the investors will take away another major share of income.
    • Central funds will be squeezed and this, in turn, will have a bearing on state finances.
    • NMP will seriously hurt the interests of the country.

    2) Cutting down funds to States

    • Kerala’s case: The state was getting about 3.92 per cent from the divisible pool in the 1970s and 1980s.
    • It came down to 2.66 per cent and 2.34 per cent in the awards of the 12th and 13th Finance Commissions.
    • The 14th Finance Commission award increased it to 2.45 (2.50) per cent.
    • Now, the 15th Finance Commission has reduced it to 1.92 per cent.
    • This arbitrary cut is a result of the adoption of certain new yardsticks by the commission without considering the state government’s views
    • The 15th Finance Commission’s special grant (RD grant) of Rs 19,800 crore for this year will no longer be available in the coming years.
    • Karnataka and many other states have also suffered because of the policy to reduce the divisible pool share.

    3) Tax exemptions and surcharge

    • Exemptions amounting to Rs 99,842.06 crore were extended to corporate houses in 2019-20.
    • Many taxes on goods were reduced because of electoral compulsions. This reduced central revenues.
    • Along with such tax exemptions, the increased use of cesses and surcharges is responsible for the shrinking of the shareable pool.
    • The shareable resources with the Centre was around Rs 6.8 lakh crore in 2019-20 which has come down to Rs 5.5 lakh crore in 2020-21.
    • All the cesses and surcharges that are not shared with states come to about 20 per cent of the total revenues of the Centre.
    • States have been demanding that this money should be shared with them, particularly while fighting a pandemic.
    • States complaining for resources does not augur well for cooperative federalism.

    Way forward

    • Developing basic infrastructure and the production sector is the only way to face an economic crisis.
    • That should not be done by selling or handing over public assets to private individuals and corporations.
    • We need massive public investment that will help people to form cooperatives and collectives in agriculture and industrial production.
    • Parliament, the National Development Council and the GST Council should discuss this unprecedented situation.

    Conclusion

    We need to find a way out collectively. Handing over the rights on public properties to private individuals will take the country back to the colonial era. This must not be allowed.

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