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  • Hunger and Nutrition Issues – GHI, GNI, etc.

    The nutrition-hygiene link

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Environmental enteropathy

    Mains level: Paper 2- Addressing the nutrition problem through WASH

    Context

    A recent UNICEF report stated that nearly 12 lakh children could die in low-income countries in the next six months due to a decrease in routine health services and an increase in wasting. Nearly three lakh such children would be from India.

    Problem of nutrition in India and factors responsible for it

    • The National Family Health Survey (NFHS 5) indicates that since the onset of the pandemic, acute undernourishment in children below the age of five has worsened.
    • According to the latest data, 37.9 per cent of children under five are stunted, and 20.8 per cent are wasted — a form of malnutrition in which children are too thin for their height.
    • Comparison with other countries: This is much higher than in other developing countries where, on average, 25 per cent of children suffer from stunting and 8.9 per cent are wasted.
    • Factors: Inadequate dietary intake is the most direct cause of undernutrition.
    • Several other factors also affect nutritional outcomes, such as contaminated drinking water, poor sanitation, and unhygienic living conditions.
    • According to the World Health Organisation, 50 per cent of all mal- and under-nutrition can be traced to diarrhoea and intestinal worm infections.
    • Nutrition and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) are intricately linked, and changes in one tend, directly or indirectly, to affect the other.
    • Poor hygiene and sanitation in developing countries lead to a sub-clinical condition called “environmental enteropathy” in children.
    • Environmental enteropathy is a disorder of the intestine which prevents the proper absorption of nutrients, rendering them effectively useless.
    • Childhood diarrhoea is a major public health problem in low- and middle-income countries, leading to high mortality in children under five.
    • According to NFHS 4, approximately 9 percent of children under five years of age in India experience diarrhoeal disease.

    Way forward

    • Investment in WASH: The link between WASH and nutrition suggests that greater attention to, and investments in, WASH are a sure-shot way of bolstering the country’s nutritional status.
    • Addressing nutrition sanitation problems together: Both WASH and nutrition must be addressed together through a lens of holistic, sustainable community engagement to enable long-term impact.
    • One of the first instances of the link between WASH and nutrition appeared in the Convention on the Rights of the Child in 1989, which urges states to ensure “adequate nutritious foods and clean drinking water” to combat disease and malnutrition.
    • Safe drinking water, proper sanitation, and hygiene can significantly reduce diarrhoeal and nutritional deaths.
    • Multistructural approach: What we require is a coordinated, multisectoral approach among the health, water, sanitation, and hygiene bodies, not to mention strong community engagement.
    • WHO has estimated that access to proper water, hygiene, and sanitation can prevent the deaths of at least 8,60,000 children a year caused by undernutrition.

    Conclusion

    At the end of the day, all sides are working towards a common goal: A safe and healthy population and the hope that the 75th year of Independence becomes a watershed moment in India’s journey.

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  • BRICS Summits

    BRICS

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: BRICS summits headed by India

    Mains level: Paper 2- BRICS and challenges

    Context

    The 13th BRICS summit is set to be held on September 9 in digital format under India’s chairmanship

    Challenges and opportunities for BRICS

    • The importance of BRICS is self-evident: it represents 42% of the world’s population, 30% of the land area, 24% of global GDP and 16% of international trade.
    • Weathering geopolitical challenges: Member states have been carrying BRICS forward in an era of complex geopolitics.
    • They have bravely continued holding dozens of meetings and summits, even as India-China relations were strained after Galwan valley incident.
    • Internal challenges: There is also the reality of the strained relations of China and Russia with the West, and of serious internal challenges preoccupying both Brazil and South Africa.
    • On the other hand, a potential bond emerged due to the battle against COVID-19.
    • Challenges to trade ties: BRICS has been busy deepening trade and investment ties among its member states.
    • The difficulty stems from China’s centrality and dominance of intra-BRICS trade flows.
    • How to create a better internal balance remains a challenge, reinforced by the urgent need for diversification and strengthening of regional value chains.
    • China’s aggression: Beijing’s aggressive policy, especially against India, puts BRICS solidarity under exceptional strain.
    • Lack of support: BRICS countries have not done enough to assist the Global South to win their optimal support for their agenda.

    Does BRICS truly matter?

    • The grouping has gone through a reasonably productive journey.
    • Acts as a bridge: It strove to serve as a bridge between the Global North and Global South.
    • It developed a common perspective on a wide range of global and regional issues.
    • It established the New Development Bank; created a financial stability net in the form of Contingency Reserve Arrangement; and is on the verge of setting up a Vaccine Research and Development Virtual Center.

    Immediate goals: 4 priorities

    • As the current chair, India has outlined four priorities.
    • Reforms of multilateral institutions: The first is to pursue reform of multilateral institutions ranging from the United Nations, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to the World Trade Organization and now even the World Health Organization.
    • Reform needs global consensus which is hardly feasible in the current climate of strategic contestation between the U.S. and China and the devastation caused by COVID-19.
    • Nevertheless, Indian officials rightly remind us that BRICS emerged from the desire to challenge dominance (by the U.S.) in the early years of the century, and it remains committed to the goal of counter-dominance (by China) now.
    • Combating terrorism: Tragic developments concerning Afghanistan have helped to focus attention sharply on this overarching theme, stressing the need to bridge the gap between rhetoric and action.
    • China, for example, feels little hesitation in supporting clear-cut denunciations of terrorist groups and supports Pakistan, which is host to several international terrorist groups.
    • BRICS is attempting to pragmatically shape its counter-terrorism strategy by crafting the BRICS Counter Terrorism Action Plan.
    • Counter Terrorism Action Plan contains specific measures to fight radicalisation, terrorist financing and misuse of the Internet by terrorist groups.
    • Technology and digital solution: Promoting technological and digital solutions for the Sustainable Development Goals and expanding people-to-people cooperation are the other two BRICS priorities.

    Conclusion

    It is necessary for leaders, officials and academics of this grouping to undertake serious soul-searching and find a way out of the present predicament.

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  • Food Safety Standards – FSSAI, food fortification, etc.

    Why India’s Steady Exports Are At A Record High?

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: NMP

    Mains level: Paper 3- Need for export facilitation

    Context

    First-quarter growth in India’s gross domestic product (GDP) stands at 20.1 %. This however still means that GDP in the first quarter was 9.2 % below its level two years ago.

    Export: Challenges

    • The key driver of growth in the coming quarters will be exports riding on the rapidity of recovery in major markets.
    • There are two serious worries here.
    • 1) Bullwhip element: This could cause an immediate ramp-up in demand for steel and other such upstream elements in global supply chains, with a corresponding damp down in the months to come.
    • In this connection, although the rates under the scheme for remission of duties and taxes on exported products (RODTEP) were finally notified in mid-August.
    • Steel, pharma and chemicals get no rebate at all, although many products using these inputs do.
    • The scheme looks like a subsidy to selected sectors disguised as duty rollback, which can get India into trouble at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
    • These excluded products need the rebate if they are to survive in a fiercely price-competitive global market in the months to come.
    • 2) Container shortage: A crippling shortage of sea-borne containers has afflicted key large-volume products in the Indian export basket (tea, basmati rice, furniture, garments).
    • Sea-freight subsidy: At a time when container rates have shot up, there is surely a case for a sea-freight subsidy (for a limited period).
    • Even more urgently, the estimated 25,000-30,000 containers locked up at different ports owing to customs disputes need to be unloaded into warehouses and these containers freed.

    Can National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) spur growth?

    • Even if the expected ₹88,000 crore of revenue under NMP is realized during the current year, it is intended to feed only a small part of the infrastructure expenditure budgeted for the year.
    • It is the latter that will have to drive growth. Monetization is merely a funding source.
    • The scheme offers a participation incentive to states with a 33% matching transfer from the Centre for revenues that states realize under the scheme.
    • This matching transfer could well have the perverse consequence of states under-achieving the potential value realizable. 
    • Volume II of the NMP document refers to the Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Expenditure announced in October 2020.
    • It offered states an interest-free loan with bullet repayment after 50 years to complete stalled capital projects, or settle the outstanding bills of contractors.
    • The NMP demands clear and well-thought-through processes, with sufficient transparency and safeguards in the form of regulatory structures.

    Conclusion

    For now, the need of the hour is export facilitation.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    Afghan exit- not the end of the road for the U.S.

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Implications of Afghanistan exit for the US

    Context

    The debate has abruptly shifted to the future of the United States after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    Background of the US presence in Afghanistan

    • The terrorist attacks of 9/11, which was a game-changing global experience, led the U.S. to enter Afghanistan.
    •  The terrorist attacks transformed the geopolitics of the world.
    • The most powerful country in the world, which had the capacity to destroy the world many times over, became powerless before a few terrorists.
    •  Once the responsibility of the attack was traced to Osama bin Laden and the terrorists in Afghanistan, it was imperative for the U.S. to retaliate by overthrowing the Taliban regime.

    How US presence in Afghanistan benefited the region

    • After accomplishing its mission the US was not able to withdraw because the Afghanistan government was unable to withstand the onslaught of the Taliban and other terrorist groups.
    • Even neighbouring countries, including India, were strongly in favour of continuing the American presence.
    • The US presence helped to provide a certain stability for Afghanistan.
    • The result of their presence was the prevalence of relative peace in the region except that Pakistan fattened the Taliban with American largesse.
    • The U.S. presence in Afghanistan had succeeded in containing the dangers of terrorism for two decades.

    Way forward for the US and the rest of the world

    • The US is still the most powerful economic and military power around which the whole constellation of the world rotates.
    • Democratic world leadership: The world has a stake in ensuring that a democratic nation leads the world rather than an expansionist dictatorship which has no public opinion to restrain it.
    • Maintain the US leadership: The free world has a responsibility to maintain the American leadership of the world till a wiser and more benign alternative is found.

    Conclusion

    Much has been written about a post-American world for some years now. But it looks that the demise of America, as Mark Twain said about the reports of his own death, is greatly exaggerated.

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  • Hydel projects in Ganga-Himalayan basin

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Main Central Thrust

    Mains level: Paper 3- Rethinking the hydroelectric projects in Himalayas

    Context

    The affidavit filed recently by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) in an ongoing matter in the Supreme Court of India has recommended the construction of seven partially constructed hydroelectric projects in the Uttarakhand Himalaya.

    Background

    • After the Kedarnath tragedy of 2013, an expert body (EB-I) was constituted to investigate whether the hydro-power projects in the State of Uttarakhand was linked to the disaster.
    •  In its findings, EB-I said there was a “direct and indirect impact” of these dams in aggravating the disaster.
    • The Ministry formed another expert body (EB-II; B.P. Das committee) whose mandate has been to pave the way for all projects through some design change modifications
    • This affidavit, dated August 17, reveals that the government is inclined towards construction of 26 other projects, as in the recommendation of the expert body (EB-II; B.P. Das committee). 
    • Ministry’s own observations and admissions given in its earlier affidavit dated May 5, 2014 admitted that hydroelectric projects did aggravate the 2013 flood.

    Concerns

    • Sustainability: The sustainability of the dams in the long term is highly questionable as hydropower solely relies on the excess availability of water.
    • Temperatures across the region are projected to rise by about 1°C to 2°C on average by 2050.
    • Retreating glaciers and the alternating phases of floods and drought will impact the seasonal flows of rivers.
    • Sediment hotspots: The most crucial aspect is the existence of sediment hotspot paraglacial zones, which at the time of a cloud burst, contribute huge amounts of debris and silt in the river.
    • The flash floods in these Himalayan valleys do not carry water alone; they also carry a massive quantity of debris.
    • This was pointed out by EB-II alongside its recommendation not build any projects beyond 2,000 metres or north of the MCT, or the Main Central Thrust (it is a major geological fault).
    • Externalities:  Though hydropower is renewable source, there are contentious externalities associated with the construction of dams such as social displacement, ecological impacts, environmental and technological risks.
    • Climate change: these projects exacerbate ecological vulnerability, in a region that is already in a precarious state.
    • The intense anthropogenic activities associated with the proliferation of hydroelectric projects in these precarious regions accelerate the intensity of flash floods, avalanches, and landslides.
    • Failure of mountain slopes: The construction and maintenance of an extensive network of underground tunnels carrying water to the powerhouses contribute to the failure of mountain slopes.
    • Aggravating the disaster: The Rishi Ganga tragedy and the disasters of 2012 (flashfloods), 2013 are examples of how hydroelectric projects which come in the way of high-velocity flows aggravate a disaster and should be treated as a warning against such projects.

    Conclusion

    Considering the environmental and cultural significance of these areas, it is imperative that the Government refrains from the construction of hydroelectric projects and declares the upper reaches of all the headstreams of the Ganga as eco-sensitive zones. It must allow the river to flow unfettered and free.

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    Back2Basics: Main Central Thrust (MCT)

    • The Main Central Thrust is a major geological fault where the Indian Plate has pushed under the Eurasian Plate along the Himalaya.
    • The fault slopes down to the north and is exposed on the surface in a NW-SE direction (strike).
    • It is a thrust fault that continues along 2200 km of the Himalaya mountain belt

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  • Issues related to Economic growth

    How to unleash the entrepreneurial power of 1.3 billion Indians

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: SEZ Act

    Mains level: Paper 3- Learning from the success of IT industry in India

    Context

    Last Independence Day, the PM announced that 15,000 of our current 69,000+ employer compliances and 6000+ filings have been identified for removal.

    Why India is a development economics outlier?

    • Software industry despite being low-income country: Few models predict a $2,500 per-capita income country with five million people writing software and internet data costs per GB at 3 percent of US levels.
    • Digital identity: In India there are1.2 billion people empowered with paperless digital identity verification.
    • Digital economy: India also witnesses 3.5 billion real-time monthly digital payments.
    • Attraction for Investment: $10 billion in private equity raised in July, and a $3 trillion public market capitalization.
    • Harvard’s Ricardo Hausman believes, the only sustained predictor of sustained economic success is economic complexity and suggests that India’s prosperity is less than our economic complexity would predict.

    India’s software industry

    • Our software industry is an oasis of high productivity — 0.8 per cent of India’s workers generate 8 percent of GDP.
    • The mandatory global digital literacy program and digital investment super-cycle sparked by Covid will double our software employment in five years.
    • Our software industry’s talent, alumni, and global engagement — 50,000 tech startups that have raised over $90 billion since 2014 from 500+ institutional investors.
    • India’s software services industry and tech startups are each estimated to be worth about $400 billion today which is expected to grow to $1 trillion by 2025.

    Why did India’s manufacturing sector fail to perform while its software industry flourished?

    • One of the reasons is the different regulatory thought worlds of the Software Technology Parks India rules of 1991 (STPI) and the Special Economic Zones Act of 2005 (SEZ).
    • STPI’s genius was simplicity. It allowed rebadging existing assets, embraced trust over suspicion, and adopted self-reporting that was largely paperless, presence less, and cashless.
    • SEZs largely replicated the regulatory cholesterol and distrust that has made India unfavorable for employment-intensive industries.

    Way forward

    • Productivity: Raising per-capita needs high productivity manufacturing and domestic services firms that disrupt our low-level equilibrium of labor handicapped without capital and capital handicapped without labor.
    • Opportunities for India: Until recently, China’s tech industry seemed unstoppable — half of their 160 unicorns operate in AI, big data, and robotics. But this is changing.
    • Over 50 recent regulatory actions against China’s tech industry have already cost investors over $1 trillion.
    • This offers an opportunity for India due to its attractiveness to factories, multinationals, startups, venture capital, and pension funds.
    • Replicate regulatory trust and simplicity offered to the technology industry to other sectors: India’s global soft power by reaching revenue and valuation possibilities that felt unimaginable — have come before physical infrastructure, farm employment reduction, and higher women’s labor force participation.
    • Massifying our prosperity needs massive formal, non-farm job creation.
    • Creating the productive firms that will offer these jobs to our young needs replicating the regulatory trust and simplicity that our technology industry enjoys in the rest of our economy.

    Conclusion

    Imagine India@100 if we cut regulatory cholesterol today and spent the next 25 years unleashing the entrepreneurial energies of 1.3 billion Indians — 65 percent of whom are below 35 years old.

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  • Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

    India must commit to net zero emissions

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Net zero emission issue

    Mains level: Paper 3- Net zero emission commitment

    Context

    The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November in Glasgow is shaping up to be the most important climate meeting since the Paris Agreement in 2015.

    What are net-zero emissions?

    Carbon neutrality refers to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. This can be done by balancing emissions of carbon dioxide with its removal or by eliminating emissions from society.

    Increase in pace and scale of climate action

    • Over 50% of the global economy is already committed to net zero emissions by 2050.
    • Over 100 countries have already committed to net zero emissions by 2050, with more expected at COP26.
    • The pace and scale of climate action are only set to increase, with the recent IPCC report unequivocal on the need for urgent and stronger responses.
    • It is not only governments that are increasing climate action. The business world is too, not just to protect themselves against the risks of climate change but also to take advantage of the massive opportunities arising as the global economy shifts to net-zero emissions.

    Why India should commit to a net-zero target

    • National interest due to vulnerability: India itself has a national interest in ambitious global and national climate action.
    • It is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change and, therefore, should be among the more active against the threats.
    • Influence as a rising power: Second, as a rising power, India naturally seeks stronger influence globally.
    • Being an outlier on the global challenge facing our generation does not support this aim.
    • Drag on international diplomacy: India’s reluctance to commit to net-zero will become a significant drag on India’s international diplomacy.
    • This applies not just to key relationships like with the U.S., but also with much of the Group of 77 (G77) states, who are increasingly concerned to see climate action, and in multilateral groupings such as the United Nations and ASEAN-APEC.
    • Interconnected with the economy: There is no longer a trade-off between reducing emissions and economic growth.
    • For example, the U.K. has reduced emissions by over 40% and grown its economy by over 70% since 1990.
    • Solar energy costs have fallen 90% in recent years, providing the cheapest electricity in India ever seen.
    • Also, given the negative impacts, addressing climate change in India’s economic development is now central to success, not an added luxury to consider.
    • The transition of the global economy to net zero emissions is the biggest commercial opportunity in history.
    • In just the energy sector alone, an estimated $1.6 to $3.8 trillion of investment is required every year until 2050.

    India’s climate actions

    • India is set to significantly exceed its Paris Agreement commitment of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030.
    • Emphasis on renewable: India is impressing the world with its leading roll-out of renewable energy and target for 450GW by 2030, linked to its leadership on the International Solar Alliance and recent national hydrogen strategy.
    • Corporates: Indian corporates are also stepping up, with the Tata Group winning awards on sustainability, Mahindra committing to net-zero by 2040, and Reliance by 2035.
    • Notwithstanding reasonable arguments about historical responsibility, per capita emissions, and equity, India’s national interests in climate action are now engaged in ways that go significantly beyond waiting for donor support to drive ambition.

    The way forward: International cooperation

    • The world needs to work together for success in the form of stronger political engagement, policy support in areas of mutual challenge such as energy policy, carbon markets, and economic recovery.
    • Practical support and cooperation in areas like renewable energy and integrating it with the national grid, zero-emissions transport, decarbonising hard to abate sectors like steel, cement, and chemicals, and decarbonising agriculture offer significant scope to raise ambition.
    • As does working with India on innovative green financing for decarbonizing investment.

    Conclusion

    India’s tryst with destiny rests in its own remarkable hands, as it always has been. In a land where the earth is called mother, and Mahatma Gandhi, major religions, and the Constitution enshrine environmental care, commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 should almost be foretold.

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  • Microfinance Story of India

    Gauging household income key for microfinance clients

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Definition of microfinance

    Mains level: Paper 3- Making household income critical variable for loan assessment

    Context

    The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recently released a Consultative Document on Regulation of Microfinance in June 2021.

    Consultative document makes household income a critical variable

    • Following the Malegam Committee Report, which is a decade old now, the current document looks to reassess and realign the priorities of the sector.
    • Some of the key regulatory changes proposed in the document take household income as a critical variable for loan assessment
    • Definition of microfinance: The definition of microfinance itself is proposed to mean collateral-free loans to households with annual household incomes of up to ₹1,25,000 and ₹2,00,000 for rural and urban areas respectively.
    • Household income assessment: The document requires all Regulated Entities to have a board-approved policy for household income assessment.
    • Cap on repayment: It caps loan repayment (principal and interest) for all outstanding loans of the household at 50% of household income.
    • Therefore, measuring household income accurately becomes critical for the effective implementation of these norms.

    Challenges in measuring the income of Low-Income-Household (LIH)

    • Seasonal and volatile: Low-Income Households (LIHs), who typically form the customer base for Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), often also have seasonal and volatile income flows. 
    • Measuring expenditure doesn’t reflect their income: Since income for LIHs is seasonal and volatile, there have been attempts to understand their inflows by measuring their expenditure.
    • But, given the rotational debts they avail to fund a consumption expenditure here and a loan repayment obligation there, expenditure also does not truly reflect the household’s income.
    • Not separate personal expenditure: Moreover, for most LIHs, their expenditure on income-related activity is not separate from their personal expenses.
    • Therefore, it is difficult to separate the household’s personal expenses from that of their occupational pursuits.
    • Given these complexities, we need to understand and accept that for the bulk of LIHs, household finance is not just personal family finance, but their business finance as well.

    3 ways to measure household income for microfinance client

    • Structured survey approach: A structured survey-based approach could be used by Financial Service Providers (FSPs) to assess a household’s expenses, debt position and income from various sources of occupation and seasonality of income.
    • Template-based approach: A template-based approach could be used wherein FSPs could create various templates for different categories of households (as per location, occupation type, family characteristics, etc.).
    • These templates could then be used to gauge the household income of a client matching a particular template.
    • Centralised database: FSPs could also form a consortium to collect and maintain household income data through a centralised database.
    • This would allow for uniformity in data collection across all FSPs and, over time, can be used to validate the credibility of any new client’s reported income.
    • Such a database would also enable FSPs to track the changes in household income over time.

    Way forward

    • Use technology: Finding cost-effective yet accurate ways of capturing this information becomes crucial.
    • Creating new technology to document and analyze cash flows of LIHs would not only facilitate credit underwriting but also innovation in the standard microcredit contracts through customized repayment schedules and risk-based pricing, depending on a household’s cash flows.

    Conclusion

    Eventually, an accurate assessment of household-level incomes would avoid instances of over-indebtedness and ensure the long-term stability of the ecosystem.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    India must rethink ‘wait and watch’ Afghan policy

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Panjshir valley

    Mains level: Paper 2- India's approach towards Taliban

    Context

    After the collapse of the government in Kabul, India has adopted a wait and watch approach in its dealing with the Taliban.

    Taliban’s position in Afghanistan

    • The Taliban grip over Afghanistan will only strengthen unless there is a popular revolt against it in the cities.
    • The Panjshiri defiance is unlikely to go anywhere without considerable and abiding support from the US and a firm commitment from Tajikistan.
    • After a talk between leaders of the extinguished Afghan Republic and the Taliban on central government formation, there has been no news of the process for more than a week.
    • There is continuous pressure on Taliban leaders and Pakistan from the Western donor community for the formation of a government acceptable to it.
    • Some Taliban leaders would want financial flows to continue to prevent a collapse of the Afghan economy.

    The approach of the international community toward the Taliban

    • Assurances would be sought from the Taliban not only by the West but also by Russia and China that there will be no attempt to put in place the 1990s practices of the Islamic Emirate on gender issues and the more medieval manifestations of the Sharia.
    • Commitment to anti-terrorism: US will keep close scrutiny on the Taliban to honor its commitment to al Qaeda and will demand that it continues to cooperate on ISIS-K extermination, an objective shared by Russia.
    • Diplomatic recognition of a Taliban government, including allowing it to occupy the United Nations seat in the forthcoming future will depend on its acceptability.
    • However, the US and EU will not be reluctant to maintain open and direct contact with a Taliban government.

    Issues with India’s wait and watch policy

    • India continues to “wait and watch” Afghan developments.
    • What is being overlooked is that “strategic patience” cannot be an alibi for inaction.
    • The invocation of the British Raj policy of “masterly inactivity” by some scholars defies logic for it applied in a completely different context.
    • Recognition v. legitimacy: Besides, while diplomatic recognition or its denial is a specific act of a country in inter-state relations, “legitimacy” is more applicable in the internal jurisdiction of countries.
    • India “waited and watched” Afghan developments from the sidelines, at least since the US-Taliban deal.
    • How long will India continue to “wait and watch”?

    Way forward

    • Establish open contact: To explore the Taliban’s approaches towards India there is an obvious need to establish open and direct contacts with it.
    • That will also allow India to convey its red lines.
    • This should not be confused with diplomatic recognition.
    • Welcome Afghans: The establishment of open contacts with the Taliban will not be contradictory to actively welcome those Afghans, irrespective of their faith, who are closely connected with India.

    Consider the question “What are the implications of the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan for India? What should be India’s approach in dealing with the Taliban controlled Afghanistan?”

    Conclusion

    It would damage India’s reputation greatly and into the future, if perceptions grow, as they are growing, that India has abandoned its friends in Afghanistan at the time of their need.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    Taliban and new realpolitik

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Enduring features of international politics

    Context

    As the last American soldiers fly out of Kabul airport and the world adapts to the return of the Taliban, three uncomfortable but enduring features of international politics have come into sharp focus.

    1) The normalisation of the Taliban by the International community

    • That victories on the battlefield have political consequences is one of the fundamental features of international politics.
    • There is no reason for India to be surprised at the rapid normalisation of the Taliban by the international community.
    • Whether it likes the new and victorious sovereign or not, a government has the obligation to secure its national interests — ranging from the protection of its citizens and property to maintaining the regional balance of power.
    • India is not immune to this essential principle of international relations and will find ways to protect its stakes in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.

    2) Future U.S. relations with the Taliban

    • The second enduring feature of world politics — that there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.
    • Convergence of interests: The US would want to explore if the Taliban can help secure long-term American interests in preventing a regrouping of international terror outfits like the al Qaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan.
    • The Taliban on the other hand would want American and Western support in rebuilding Afghanistan.
    • It is by no means clear if such a deal can be clinched, given the big risks it presents to both sides.
    • The US engagement with the Taliban to counter the ISIS-K has been met with derision across the world.
    • Critics say all these groups are part of the same school of terror, driven by similar religious zeal and nurtured in Pakistan’s sanctuaries.

    3) Exploit the differences between adversaries: Way forward for India

    • The third feature of international politics is that differences even among the closest of friends are natural and always offer openings to adversaries.
    • For India, the main interest is in preventing Afghan soil from being used by anti-India terror groups.
    • At least a section of the Taliban is eager to continue political and commercial engagement with India.
    • This is part of a natural quest for a diversified set of international partnerships.
    • India would be right to wait patiently on the Taliban’s ability to deliver on these promises and stand up against the Pakistan army’s pressures to keep India out.
    • Exploit the contradictions: India should not rule out contradictions between Pakistan and the terror groups it has nurtured as well as among various jihadi organisations.
    • Despite its powerful appeal, religious ideology has failed to build durable political coalitions within and across nations.

    Conclusion

    Given this history, it is unwise for Delhi to paint the external challenges arising from the Afghan tumult as a single coherent force. The Panchatantra has a more sensible strategy to offer — try and divide your potential adversaries and strengthen your internal unity.

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