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  • Coronavirus – Health and Governance Issues

    Very few post-vaccine infections

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Covaxin and Covishield

    Mains level: Paper 2- Breakthrough infections

    Breakthrough infection

    • ICMR said that a small fraction of those vaccinated with either Covaxin or Covishield have tested positive (i.e. breakthrough” infections).
    • However, these instances do not undermine the efficacy of the vaccines.
    • The immune response begins to develop usually two weeks after every dose and there are variations within individuals, too.
    • Of the 9.3 million who received the first dose of Covaxin, 4,208 tested positive; and of the 1.7 million who received the second dose, 695 tested positive.
    • For Covishield, of the 100.3 million who received the first dose, 17,145 tested positive; and of the 15 million who got the second dose, 5,014 tested postive.

    What explains infections after vaccination

    • Healthcare and frontline workers, who were among the first to be vaccinated, were as a population far more exposed to the virus and therefore more susceptible.
    • Secondly, the emergence of “the highly transmissible second wave (newer variants) ” may have contributed to instances of infection among those vaccinated.
    • Several variants, which have mutations that have been shown to avoid detection by the immune system, and in some cases reduce the efficacy of vaccines, have been reported globally, including in India.

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  • Police Reforms – SC directives, NPC, other committees reports

    Strengthening the process of choosing the police chief

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Protecting the police from political interference

    The article suggests the need for reforms in the process of appointment to the police chief to ensure the political neutrality of the police.

    Process of appointing and removing police chief

    •  A crucial way in which governments exercise control over the State police is through their unregulated power to decide who the chief will be.
    • There is no independent vetting process to assess the suitability of qualified candidates, and the government’s assessment, if it is done at all, remains opaque and is an exercise behind closed doors.
    •  The moot reform issue is in ensuring the right balance between the government’s legitimate role in appointing or removing the police chief with the need to safeguard the chief’s operational autonomy.

    Need for reforms

    Two elements are vital to reforms in this area.

    1) Shift the responsibility to independent oversight body of which government is one part

    • The National Police Commission (NPC) (1979), and the Supreme Court in its judgment in 2006, in the Prakash Singh case suggested establishing a state-level oversight body with a specified role in the appointment and removal of police chiefs.
    • While the Supreme Court entrusted the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) with a role in shortlisting candidates from which the State government is to appoint the police chief.
    • However, the Model Police Bill, 2015 places the responsibility with a multiparty State Police Board, also referred to as the State Security Commission (SSCs) instead.

    No compliance with SC directive in the formation of SSC

    • While 26 States and the Union Territories have established SSCs, not a single one adheres to the balanced composition suggested by the top court.
    • Some do not include the Leader of the Opposition; others neither include independent members nor follow an independent selection process of the members.
    • In essence, the commissions remain dominated by the political executive.
    • Moreover, in as many as 23 States, governments retain the sole discretion of appointing the police chief. Assam, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Meghalaya and Mizoram are the only States where, on paper, the SSC is given the responsibility of shortlisting candidates.

    2) Need for transparency

    • The second element critical to police reforms is instituting an independent and transparent selection and decision-making process around appointment and removal, against objective criteria.
    •  On appointments, the Court and the Model Police Act require the UPSC/SSC to shortlist candidates on the basis of length of service, service record, and range of experience and a performance appraisal of the candidates over the past 10 years.
    • However, no further guidance has been developed on explaining these terms or specifying their elements.
    • Similarly, no scrutiny process has been prescribed to justify removals from tenure posts.
    • The National Police Commission had required State governments to seek the approval of the State Security Commission before removing the police chief before the end of term.
    • This important check was diluted under the Prakash Singh judgment that only requires governments to consult the SSC.
    • Most States omit even this cursory step.
    • The Supreme Court has rightly emphasised that “prima facie satisfaction of the government” alone is not a sufficient ground to justify removal from a tenure post in government, such as that of the police chief (T.P. Senkumar vs Union of India, 2017).
    • The rule of law requires such decisions be for compelling reasons and based on verifiable material that can be objectively tested.

    Way forward

    • Clear and specific benchmarks need to be integrated into decision-making processes, both on appointments and removals, to prevent politically motivated adverse actions.
    • In improving transparency the United Kingdom provides a useful example by introducing public confirmation hearings as an additional layer of check for the appointment of the heads of their police forces.

    Consider the question “Examine the status of compliance of the states to the directives of the Supreme Court with respect to the constitution of State Security Commission in the Prakash Singh case.”

    Conclusion

    Reforms are needed on urgent to ensure fairness in administrative decisions and to protect the political neutrality of the police. Any further delay in implementing reforms in this area will continue to demoralise the police and cripple the rule of law.

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  • Renewable Energy – Wind, Tidal, Geothermal, etc.

    A fresh push for green hydrogen

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia,Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Green hydroge

    Mains level: Paper 2- Scaling up green hydrogen manufacturing capacity in India

    Green hydrogen could help significantly in India’s transition to low carbon future. However, there are several challenges in ramping up its manufacturing. The article suggests measures to deal with these challenges.

    Increasing the production of green hydrogen

    • India will soon join 15 other countries in the hydrogen club as it prepares to launch the National Hydrogen Energy Mission (NHEM). 
    • India will soon join 15 other countries in the hydrogen club as it prepares to launch the National Hydrogen Energy Mission (NHEM). 
    • In 2030, according to an analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), green hydrogen demand could be up to 1 million tonnes in India across application in sectors such as ammonia, steel, methanol, transport and energy storage. 

    Dealing with challenges

    Several challenges in scaling up to commercial-scale operations persist. Following are five recommendations.

    1) Decentralise green hydrogen production

    • Decentralised hydrogen production must be promoted through open access of renewable power to an electrolyser (which splits water to form H2 and O2 using electricity).
    • Currently, most renewable energy resources that can produce low-cost electricity are situated far from potential demand centres.
    • Producing oxygen at such locations and then shipped, it would significantly erode the economics of it.
    • A more viable option would be wheeling electricity directly from the solar plant.
    • However, the electricity tariffs could double when supplying open-access power across State boundaries.
    • Therefore, operationalising open access in letter and spirit, as envisioned in the Electricity Act, 2003, must be an early focus.

    2)  Ensure access to round-the-clock renewable power

    • To minimise intermittency associated with renewable energy, for a given level of hydrogen production capacity, a green hydrogen facility will store hydrogen to ensure continuous hydrogen supply.
    • Therefore, as we scale up to the target of having 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030, aligning hydrogen production needs with broader electricity demand in the economy would be critical.

    3) Blending green hydrogen in industrial sector

    • We must take steps to blend green hydrogen in existing processes, especially the industrial sector.
    • Improving the reliability of hydrogen supply by augmenting green hydrogen with conventionally produced hydrogen will significantly improve the economics of the fuel.
    • This will also help build a technical understanding of the processes involved in handling hydrogen on a large scale.

    4) Facilitate investment

    • Policymakers must facilitate investments in early-stage piloting and the research and development needed to advance the technology for use in India.
    • The growing interest in hydrogen is triggered by the anticipated steep decline in electrolyser costs.
    • Public funding will have to lead the way, but the private sector, too, has significant gains to be made by securing its energy future.

    5) Focus on domestic manufacturing

    •  India must learn from the experience of the National Solar Mission and focus on domestic manufacturing.
    • Establishing an end-to-end electrolyser manufacturing facility would require measures extending beyond the existing performance-linked incentive programme.
    • India needs to secure supplies of raw materials that are needed for this technology.
    • Further, major institutions like the DRDO, BARC and CSIR laboratories have been developing electrolyser and fuel-cell technologies.

    Consider the question “Even before it has reached any scale, green hydrogen has been anointed the flag-bearer of India’s low-carbon transition. In lights of this, examine the challenges India faces in scaling up its green hydrogen production and suggest the ways to deal with these challenges.”

    Conclusion

    Hydrogen may be lighter than air, but it will take some heavy lifting to get the ecosystem in place.

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  • Employee State Insurance Scheme and Employee Provident Fund

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Government Scheme/Policies

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: ESIS and EPF

    Mains level: Paper 3- ESIS and EPF

    The idea of welfare state

    • Covid reminds us that a modern state is a welfare state as governments worldwide launched 1,600 plus new social protection programmes in 2020.
    • Sustainable social security lies in raising India’s 138th ranking in country per-capita GDP.
    • However, on the social security schemes, there is a case for three reforms to our biggest health insurance and pension schemes:
    • These schemes are the Employee State Insurance Scheme (ESIS) and Employee Provident Fund (EPF).

    Issues with ESIS

    • The Employee State Insurance Scheme (ESIS) is India’s richest and biggest health insurance scheme with 13 crore people covered and Rs 80,000 crore in cash.
    • Employers with more than 10 employees make a mandatory 4 per cent payroll deduction for employees earning up to Rs 21,000 per month.
    • Despite covering roughly 10 per cent of India’s population, a recent working paper from Dvara Research suggests high dissatisfaction.
    • The constraint is hardly resources: ESIC’s unspent reserves are larger than the Central government’s healthcare budgetary allocation.

    Issues with EPF

    • EPF is India’s biggest pension scheme with a Rs 12 lakh crore corpus and 6.5 crore contributors.
    • Employers with more than 20 employees make mandatory 24 per cent payroll deductions for employees earning up to Rs 15,000 per month.
    • It only covers 10 per cent of India’s labour force and 60 per cent of accounts and 50 per cent of registered employers are inactive.
    • EPF offers poor service and pathetic technology despite employer-funded administrative costs that make it the world’s most expensive government securities mutual fund.

    Updating the risk-sharing frameworks in society

    • In a book titled What We Owe Each Other: A New Social Contract, Nemat Shafik suggests updating the risk-sharing framework in societies.
    • This is because current structures are breaking up under the weight of changes in the role of women, longer careers, technology, globalisation, and much else.
    • She suggests a more nuanced social security redistribution across time (the piggy bank function), incomes (the Robin Hood function), and financial burden-bearing (the state, individuals, or employers).
    • In India, the answer lies in fixing the problems of EPF and ESIS.

    Solution to the EPF and ESIS problems

    • Both suffer from poor coverage, high costs, unsatisfied customers, metrics confused with goals, jail provisions, excessive corruption, low expertise, rude and unaccountable staff with no fear of falling or hope of rising, and no competition.

    Let’s look at possible solutions.

    1) Structure

    • EPF and ESIS combine the roles of policymaker, regulator, and service provider.
    • Splitting roles is a precondition for performance because goals, strategy, and skills are different.
    • An independent policymaker horrified with only 6 lakh of India’s 6.3 crore enterprises covered would create competition.
    • An independent regulator terrified by ESIS overcharging would frown on a claims ratio of less than 75 per cent.
    • An independent service provider would invest heavily in technology, customer service, and human capital.
    • Splitting roles would lead to the following benefits:
    • 1) Competition from NPS for EPF.
    • 2) Ending VIP opt-out by merging CGHS with ESIS,
    • 3) Raising enforceability by making employee provident fund contribution voluntary.
    • 4) Improving portability by de-linking accounts from employers.
    • 5) Targeting universalisation by simultaneously ending minimum employer head-count and employee salary contribution thresholds while introducing absolute contribution caps.
    • The Health and Finance Ministry would be logical homes for ESIS and EPF policy roles.

    2) Governance

    • The governing board of ESIS and EPFO have 59 and 33 members respectively.
    • Such a large group can’t have meaningful discussions, make decisions, and exercise oversight.
    • This governance deficit needs smaller boards (not more than 15), age limits, term limits, expertise, active sub-committees (HR, Investments, and technology) and real powers.

    3) Leadership

    • Health and pensions need complex skills developed over time.
    • Yet, ESIS and EPF are led by generalist bureaucrats.
    • Both organisations need professional chief executives.
    • Philosopher Isaiah Berlin’s framing of the generalist vs specialist debate as hedgehogs (who know one thing) and foxes (who know many things) is important.
    • A less generalist, non-transitory, and non-cadred chief executive would create a new tone-from-the-top around performance management, technology, and service outcomes.

    Conclusion

    Social security — not a borrowing binge that steals from our grandchildren — can blunt structural and COVID inequality when combined with complementary policies like formalisation, financialisation, urbanisation, and better government schools. But a great place to start is three flick-of-pen, non-fiscal reforms at EPF and ESIS.

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  • e-Commerce: The New Boom

    Towards digital Atmanirbharta

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth,Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: FDI restrictions on e-commerce

    Mains level: Paper 3- FDI in e-commerce

    We need a comprehensive FDI policy on trade to take care of the needs of all the stakeholders. The article highlights the issues faced by the e-commerce sector in relation to the FDI policy.

    E-commerce as an enabler

    • With their efficient, quick and reliable logistics network, e-commerce platforms have nudged consumer behaviour patterns from an offline to an online shopping mode.
    • During the pandemic, e-commerce emerged as an enabler in ensuring the availability of essentials to the masses.
    • E-commerce is going to be increasingly important in the future of retail shopping in India and the world over.
    • It is estimated to become a $100 billion industry by 2024, which was at $38.5 billion until 2017.
    •  The trend will continue to grow with the government’s impetus on digital literacy, also supported by the increasing penetration of internet and smartphone users.
    • However, what the sector lacks is the bandwidth of operation.

    Issues with FDI policy for e-commerce

    • In addition to the FDI Policy/FEMA, other laws such as IT Act, Consumer Protection Act, and those pertaining to IP and copyright, regulate the e-commerce sector in India.
    • Of these, the FDI policy plays an important role as massive investments are needed to build and strengthen the entire ecosystem of the e-commerce sector in the country.
    • FDI policies on trade have evolved over time as policy-making was done from time to time mostly responding to the needs of the market coupled with political feasibility.
    • Thus, FDI policy in cash and carry or wholesale B2B operations is different (100 per cent FDI allowed under automatic route) compared to highly restrictive FDI policy on retail B2C trade.
    • Similarly, an artificial distinction was created between single-brand retail and multi-brand retail as opposition to multi-brand retail was strong: 100 per cent FDI is allowed under automatic route in single-brand retail whereas FDI regime in multi-brand retail is quite restricted.
    • E-commerce is not allowed under FDI policy in multi-brand retail.
    • The FDI policy on e-commerce is quite different as e-commerce platforms are allowed to work only as a marketplace with permission to provide certain specified services to sellers and buyers.
    • However, FDI is allowed in the inventory model when these platforms sell fresh farm produce made in India.
    • There is no specific policy on FDI in e-commerce for exports.

    Need for comprehensive FDI policy for trade

    • The rapid expansion of the retail, organised retail as well e-commerce sector in India in the coming years will create huge opportunities for all.
    • The policies that have evolved over time need a relook to balance the interests of all in a win-win policy.
    • Today, our small businesses employing an exceptionally large number of workers need to use e-commerce more and more to augment their sales.
    • E-commerce provides them with the means to access a much bigger market without having to overly invest in marketing. This should include more and more foreign markets.
    • Consumers have benefited enormously from e-commerce.
    • Also, the harmonious working of online and offline retailers is essential.
    • With GST and the drive towards digitisation, more small traders need to be enabled to make the transition and take advantage of the expanding opportunities.

    Consider the question “Why e-commerce sector is important for the economy of a country? What are the issues the sector faces in India?” 

    Conclusion

    Public policy on e-commerce needs to place an equal premium on the views and interests of all the stakeholders in the ecosystem to strengthen our domestic businesses and create many more jobs and livelihood opportunities in the country to fulfil the dreams of Atmanirbhar Bharat.

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  • Internal Security Architecture Shortcomings – Key Forces, NIA, IB, CCTNS, etc.

    Politics, geography and demography shape Naxal movement

    op-ed snap | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: Various Security Forces, Agencies & Their Mandates

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Factors making Naxal moment a complex security challenge

    The article explains the issues with the two common themes adopted for explaining the Naxal movement in India.

    Two approaches to explain Naxal movement

    1) Root cause and alienation approach

    • The recent attack in and around Tekulagudem village in Sukma district demonstrates the threat posed by Maoists.
    • The post-incident analysis of such setbacks comes in two flavours.
    • The most popular theory amongst our intelligentsia and media is the root cause and alienation approach. 
    • This approach states that it is the failure of the Indian state to provide economic development and social justice to the tribals living in these areas that has fuelled the Naxal movement and sustained it for five decades.
    • As a prescription, a development-centric approach and negotiations are suggested as the way forward.

    Issues with root cause and alienation approach

    • There are several problems with this approach.
    • First, it ignores the ideological foundations of the movement, specifically its rejection of India’s Constitution and democracy.
    • Second, it fails to see that social and economic deprivation is not unique to the jungles of Chhattisgarh.
    • Third, it doesn’t account for the possibility that while alienation and deprivation may help in igniting the spark of revolution, once lit the flames draw oxygen from many sources.
    • Fourth, the role of external forces in fomenting and sustaining this movement is deliberately underplayed.
    • Fifth, the grubby ground reality of the praxis of revolution is conveniently swept under the carpet.
    • The organised extortion racket from all economic stakeholders in the Naxal-affected areas by our alienated revolutionaries seldom gets talked about.
    • Sixth, the extensive ideological, financial and logistical ecosystem that provides sustenance to these revolutionaries in the jungle is seldom acknowledged.

    2) Leadership issue

    • According to this view, our tactical failures against the Maoists are entirely due to the poor quality of leadership provided by the Indian Police Service.
    • The when, where, how of a setback simply don’t matter.
    • When in doubt, identify the first IPS officer in the chain of command and hoist him on the petard of tactical incompetence.
    • This view completely ignores the many successes of IPS leadership in counterinsurgency operations in Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and most recently in Odisha.
    • Even in the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir, where the Indian Army provides the backbone of the counterinsurgency grid, the police forces of the respective states and their IPS leadership play a crucial role in gathering intelligence and in executing operations.
    • So, the failures and setbacks in the Naxal areas of Chhattisgarh need to be placed in perspective.

    Way forward

    • The fact that the Indian state has adopted a broad policy of economic development, military restraint and gradual attrition and rejected indiscriminate violence in the Naxal theatre is the democratically prudent and morally just course of action.
    • This hasn’t dissuaded Maoist sympathisers from gaining international attention through relentless propaganda against our security forces.
    • However, such attacks also help in exposing their true nature and hardening public resolve against them.
    •  \We have enough examples of successful, police led CI Ops in our country.
    • Why we are not able to replicate these successes in Chhattisgarh is a matter of larger political issues, well beyond the narrow scope of operational tactics and individual lapses of police leadership.
    • Not just the politics, the geography and demography of the Naxal-affected areas, make it an even more complex challenge of internal security.

    Consider the question “What are the factors that make Naxal movement a persistent threat to India’s internal security? ” 

    Conclusion

    Not just the politics, the geography and demography of the Naxal-affected areas, make it an even more complex challenge of internal security.

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  • Parliament – Sessions, Procedures, Motions, Committees etc

    Issues with ordinance in India

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Article 123, Article 213 of the Indian Constitution

    Mains level: Paper 2- Issues with the repromulgation of ordinances

    Repromulgation of ordinances raises several questions and it also goes against the Supreme Court judgement. The article explains the issues involved.

    Ordinance route and issues with it

    • The central government has repromulgated the ordinance that establishes a commission for air quality management in the National Capital Region.
    • This raises questions about the practice of issuing ordinances to make law, and that of re-issuing ordinances without getting them ratified by Parliament.
    • Law making is a legislative function, this power is provided for urgent requirements, and the law thus made has an automatic expiry at the end of six weeks from the time Legislature next meets.

    How frequent is the use of ordinance route

    • In the 1950s, central ordinances were issued at an average of 7.1 per year.
    • The number peaked in the 1990s at 19.6 per year, and declined to 7.9 per year in the 2010s. 
    • The last couple of years has seen a spike, 16 in 2019, 15 in 2020, and four till now this year.
    • States have also been using the ordinance route to enact laws.
    • For example, in 2020, Kerala issued 81 ordinances, while Karnataka issued 24 and Maharashtra 21.
    • Kerala has also repromulgated ordinances.

    What the Supreme Court said

    • The issue was brought up in the Supreme Court through a writ petition by D.C. Wadhwa.
    • He found out that Bihar had issued 256 ordinances between 1967 and 1981, of which 69 were repromulgated several times, including 11 which were kept alive for more than 10 years.
    • A five-judge Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court, in 1986, ruled that repromulgation of ordinances was contrary to the Constitutional scheme.
    • The judgment did not stop the practice.
    • Instead, the Centre also started to follow the lead of Bihar.
    • For example, in 2013 and 2014, the Securities Laws (Amendment) ordinance was promulgated three times.
    • Similarly, an ordinance to amend the Land Acquisition Act was issued in December 2014, and repromulgated twice – in April and May 2015.
    • The matter came up again in the Supreme Court in  2017, a seven-judge Constitution Bench declared this practice to be unconstitutional and declared it to be a fraud on the Constitution.
    • Even this judgment has been ignored.
    • The Indian Medical Council Amendment Ordinance was issued in September 2018, and reissued in January 2019.

    Way forward

    • Ordinances are to tackle exigencies when the legislature is not in session, and expire at the end of six weeks of the next meeting of the legislature.
    • This time period is given for the legislature to decide whether such a law is warranted.
    • Repromulgation is not permitted as that would be a usurpation of legislative power by the executive.
    • As governments, both at the Centre and States, are violating this principle, the legislatures and the courts should check the practice.
    • By not checking this practice, the other two organs are also abdicating their responsibility to the Constitution.

    Consider the question “What are the issues with the repormulgation of ordinances by the government? Suggest the measures to deal with the issue.”

    Conclusion

    As the Supreme Court said, repromulgation would most certainly be a colourable exercise of power for the Government and it needs to be avoided.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    The great Afghan microcosm

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Importance of Afghanistan in regional strategic matrix

    The article highlights how players at 3 levels: global, regional and local level influence Afghan dynamics.

    Role of global powers in Afghanistan

    1) What the US exit from Afghanistan mean

    • The exit of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan underlines the end of the unipolar moment in international affairs.
    • Ending US military involvement, however, does not necessarily make Washington marginal to the future evolution of Afghanistan.
    • The US remains the most significant global power even after the end of the unipolar moment.
    • Its ability to weigh in on multiple issues is considerable.
    • President Joe Biden is under some pressure at home not to be seen as abandoning Afghanistan.
    • Nor can the US President ignore the dangers of Afghanistan re-emerging as a breeding ground for international terrorism.
    • The US will figure prominently in any Taliban strategy to win international diplomatic recognition and political legitimacy.
    • It will also need Western economic assistance for stabilising the war-torn country.

    2) Russia’s role in Afghanistan

    • Russia is determined to play an important role in the future of Afghanistan.
    • As a member of the UNSC, the joint leader of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation with China, and a major source of weapons, Russian clout is real.
    • Above all, Putin brings plenty of political will to compensate for Moscow’s loss of superpower status as we have seen across the world, from Venezuela to Myanmar and Mozambique to Syria.

    3) How China will benefit from the US withdrawal

    • If the US is a distant power, China is Afghanistan’s neighbour.
    • Unlike Russia, China can deliver massive economic resources to Afghanistan under the umbrella of the Belt and Road Initiative.
    • China’s expanding relations with the different nations of the Gulf and Central Asia and a deep partnership with Pakistan lends much potential depth to Beijing’s role in Afghanistan.
    • Both Kabul and the Taliban have seen China as a valuable partner in the pursuit of their divergent interests.
    • Beijing has often talked of extending the China Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan.
    • However, China is vulnerable to the extremist politics of the region that fan the flames of religious and ethnic separatism in its Xinjiang province.

    Regional powers influencing Afghan dynamics

    • One of the biggest concern about the Afghan future is the kind of influence Islamic radicals might regain in the country under Taliban rule and its consequences for the subcontinent, Central Asia, and the Middle East.
    • Pakistan and Iran, which share long physical borders, have had the greatest natural influence on land-locked Afghanistan.
    • When the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were the only countries other than Pakistan to recognise the government-run by its leader, Mullah Omar.
    • They have taken a back seat in the current round of Afghan diplomacy, but would certainly return to the centre stage sooner than later.
    • Meanwhile, bold Qatar and ambitious Turkey have injected themselves into the Afghan jousting.

    Influence of local actors

    • The local actors in Afghanistan have agency of their own.
    • All of them know how to manipulate external powers for their own ends in Afghanistan.
    • The image of the Taliban as a creature of the Pakistan army is misleading, the Taliban is quite capable of making independent deals with the rest of the world.
    • The Taliban’s opponents, too, are likely to fight for their interests and will seek out external partners.

    Consider the question “Discarding old hesitations and building new geopolitical coalitions will be critical for a successful Indian engagement with the Afghan microcosm. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    Several contentions unfolding in and around Afghanistan promise to reorder the region again. Delhi needs much strategic activism to secure its interests and promote regional stability in this flux.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Russia

    India and Russia look for a reset

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: CAATSA

    Mains level: Paper 2- India-Russia relations

    Avoiding military alliances and retaining its strategic autonomy could help India play an important role in geopolitics at the same time maintaining the diversity in its relationships.

    Transformation in India-Russia relations

    • The principal objective of the Russian Foreign Minister was to prepare the ground for the visit of President Vladimir Putin later this year.
    • The Indian perspective on the Indo-Pacific was conveyed to the Foreign Minister of Russia.
    •  India insists that its Indo-Pacific initiatives seek a cooperative order, that the Quad is not the nucleus of a politico-military alliance.
    • A $1 billion Indian line of credit for projects in the Russian Far East and activation of a Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor were announced in 2019.
    • The message was that India’s effort to restrain Chinese aggression is compatible with Russia’s vision of a Eurasian partnership.
    • Russia remains unconvinced, either because it feels India’s words do not match its actions or because of its close ties with China.

    China factor in India-Russia relations

    • India is concerned about Russia’s China embrace, encompassing close political, economic and defence cooperation: Russia accounted for 77% of China’s arms imports in 2016-20.
    • India’s apprehensions about their technology- and intelligence-sharing were heightened by Mr. Putin’s remark that he would not rule out a future Russia-China military alliance. 

    Russia-Pakistan relations

    • Foreign Minister visited Pakistan directly after India — the first time a Russian Minister has done so.
    • .He confirmed that Russia would strengthen Pakistan’s “counter-terrorism capability” .
    • Russia is now Pakistan’s second-largest defence supplier, accounting for 6.6% of its arms imports in 2016-20.
    • Their cooperation includes joint “counter-terrorism” drills and sharing perspectives on military tactics and strategic doctrines.

    Factors to consider about defence cooperation with Russia

    • Despite being a major defence supplier of China and Pakistan, Russia remains a major supplier of cutting-edge military technologies to India.
    • The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) records that Russia supplied 49% of India’s arms imports in 2016-20.
    • SIPRI estimates that recent orders for Russian arms could boost future import figures. T
    • his is a reality check.
    • Defence cooperation is not a transactional exchange. Sharing of technologies and strategies is underpinned by a mutual commitment to protection of confidentiality.
    • Sustainable defence cooperation is based on a credible assurance that what is transferred to our adversaries will not blunt the effectiveness of our weapons systems.
    • In this already complex mix, the American sanctions legislation, CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), adds an external layer of complexity.

    Criticality of geography influence India’s relationship with Russia and China

    • The Eurasian landmass to India’s north is dominated by Russia and China.
    • Strategic and security interests in Central Asia, West Asia and Afghanistan dictate our engagement with the region and the connectivity projects linking it, like the International North-South Transport Corridor through Iran.
    • India cannot vacate this space to a Russia-China condominium (with Pakistan in tow), without potentially grave security consequences.

    The broader geopolitical context

    • The principal element in this is the drive for the superpower status of a powerful, assertive China.
    • The U.S., as the pre-eminent superpower, seeks to retard this process.
    • In a deviation from classical geopolitical strategy, the U.S. is taking on both China and Russia.
    • This move is driving Russia and China together and arguably accelerating the move to bipolarity.
    • Even so, the differentials in military, economic and political power across countries may complicate the emergence of two clear poles of the Cold War variety.
    • A decline in Western hostility to Russia could add to the complexity, if Russia takes the opportunity to loosen the Chinese embrace and position itself as a pole in the multipolar world.

    Consider the question “The depth of India’s relationship with Russia will depend on the willingness and capacity of both countries to show mutual sensitivity to core security concerns. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    India has to explore the space within these processes to maximise its global influence by steering clear of alliances and retaining the autonomy of policy.

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  • Minimum Support Prices for Agricultural Produce

    Agriculture policy should target India’s actual farming population

    op-ed snap | Agriculture | Mains Paper 3: Issues Related To Farm Subsidies & Msp

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Agriculture households in India

    Mains level: Paper 3- Need to focus on India's actual farming population

    The article highlights the ambiguity about the number of farmers in India and related issues.

    How many farmers does India really have

    • The Agriculture Ministry’s last Input Survey for 2016-17 pegged the total operational holdings at 146.19 million.
    • The NABARD All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey of the same year estimated the country’s “agricultural households” at 100.7 million.
    • The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-Kisan) has around 111.5 million enrolled beneficiaries.
    • Agricultural households, as per NABARD’s definition, cover any household whose value of produce from farming activities is more than Rs 5,000 during a year.
    • That obviously is too little to qualify as living income.

    Who is real farmer

    • Agricultural households, as per NABARD’s definition, cover any household whose value of produce from farming activities is more than Rs 5,000 during a year.
    • That obviously is too little to qualify as living income.
    • A “real” farmer is someone who would derive a significant part of his/her income from agriculture.
    • This, one can reasonably assume, requires growing at least two crops in a year.
    • The 2016-17 Input Survey report shows that out of the total 157.21 million hectares (mh) of farmland with 146.19 million holdings, only 140 mh was cultivated.
    • And even out of this net sown area, a mere 50.48 mh was cropped two times or more, which includes 40.76 mh of irrigated and 9.72 mh of un-irrigated land.
    • Taking the average holding size of 1.08 hectares for 2016-17, the number of “serious full-time farmers” cultivating a minimum of two crops a year  would be hardly 47 million.
    • The above figure is also consistent with other data from the Input Survey.
    • These pertain to the number of cultivators planting certified/high yielding seeds (59.01 million), using own or hired tractors (72.29 million) and electric/diesel engine pumpsets (45.96 million), and availing institutional credit (57.08 million).
    • Whichever metric one considers, the farmer population significantly engaged and dependent on agriculture as a primary source of income is well within 50-75 million.
    • The current agriculture crisis is largely about these 50-75 million farm households.

    Lack of price parity

    • At the heart of farmers’ crisis is the absence of price parity.
    • In 1970-71, when the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat was Rs 76 per quintal, 10 grams of 24-carat gold cost about Rs 185.
    •  Today, the wheat MSP is at Rs 1,975/quintal, gold prices are Rs 45,000/10g.
    • The absence of farm price parity didn’t hurt much initially when crop productivity was rising.
    • Since the 1990s, yields have further gone up to 5.1-5.2 tonnes/hectare in wheat and 6.4-6.5 tonnes for paddy. But so have production costs. 
    • The demand for making MSP a legal right is basically a demand for price parity that gives agricultural commodities sufficient purchasing power with respect to things bought by farmers.

    Way forward

    • Most government welfare schemes are aimed at poverty alleviation and uplifting those at the bottom of the pyramid.
    • But there’s no policy for those in the “middle” and in danger of slipping to the bottom.
    •  When crop prices fail to keep pace with escalating costs — of not only inputs, but everything the farmer buys — the impact is on the 50-75 million surplus producers.
    • Any “agriculture policy” has to first and foremost address the problem of price parity.
    • Farmers’ interest be even better served by the government guaranteeing a minimum “income” rather than “price” support.
    • Subsistence or part-time agriculturalists, on the other hand, would benefit more from welfare schemes and other interventions to boost non-farm employment.

    Conclusion

    Whether it is crop, livestock or poultry, agriculture policy has to focus on “serious full-time farmers”, most of them neither rich nor poor. This rural middle class that was once very confident of its future in agriculture today risks going out of business. That shouldn’t be allowed to happen.

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