| PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2023] Why did human development fail to keep pace with economic development in India?
Linkage: The report says that India’s low scores in areas like women’s jobs and health show a deep problem that is slowing down the country’s progress. Even though the economy is growing, women are still left behind in key areas. That’s why the report’s low ranking is a strong warning. |
Mentor’s Comment: The World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2025 has brought renewed attention to India’s poor performance in gender equality, ranking it 131 out of 148 countries. Despite being a global economic and digital power, the report highlights serious structural deficits in India, especially in women’s health, economic participation, and decision-making roles.
Today’s editorial analyses the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2025 for India. This topic is important for GS Paper II (Social Justice) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
Recently, India was ranked very low in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2025, showing that there are serious and long-standing inequalities between men and women, especially in jobs and economic roles.
Why is India’s low gender gap ranking seen as a structural failure?
- Low Global Ranking in Gender Gap: According to the Global Gender Gap Report 2025, India ranks 131 out of 148 countries, reflecting persistent inequality in key areas such as economic participation and health. This ranking indicates a structural issue beyond isolated policy failures.
- Poor Female Labour Force Participation: India ranks 143rd in economic participation and opportunity, with women earning less than one-third of what men do. Female labour force participation remains below 25%, revealing systemic barriers to employment despite rising educational levels.
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What health barriers limit women’s economic participation in India?
- High Anaemia Prevalence: Nearly 57% of women aged 15–49 suffer from anaemia (NFHS-5), which weakens physical capacity, affects cognitive ability, and reduces safe maternal outcomes, ultimately restricting their ability to work or study.
- Gendered Gaps in Healthcare Access: Women, especially in rural and low-income groups, face inadequate access to reproductive health, preventive care, and nutrition, leading to poor health outcomes and lower life expectancy than men.
- Neglect of Women’s Health in Policy: Public health systems often fail to prioritise women’s specific needs, with underfunded primary care, weak maternal services, and poor sanitation, resulting in chronic health issues that hinder long-term workforce participation.
How does unpaid care work hinder gender equality and growth?
- Limits Women’s Workforce Participation: Indian women perform nearly seven times more unpaid domestic work than men (Time Use Survey), leaving little time for formal employment or skill development.
For instance, many women drop out of jobs after childbirth due to lack of childcare support.
- Undervalued in National Economy: Despite its economic value, unpaid care work is invisible in GDP calculations and often excluded from policy priorities. Countries like Uruguay have tried to measure and integrate care work into development plans to promote inclusive growth.
- Worsens Gender Inequality in Decision-Making: The burden of care responsibilities keeps women out of leadership roles and policy spaces, reinforcing their marginalisation in public and private institutions. Low representation of women in budget committees leads to underfunding of women-centric welfare schemes.
| Note: The Time Use Survey, conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in India (latest available: 2019), provides valuable data on how individuals allocate time to various activities over a 24-hour period. |
Which global models can India adopt for care economy reforms?
- Uruguay’s Approach: The National Integrated Care System ensures universal access to services like childcare, eldercare, and disability assistance, aiming to reduce the unpaid care burden and promote professionalisation of care work.
- South Korea’s Model: Through expansive public investment in care services, including care vouchers and subsidised facilities, South Korea has enhanced female workforce participation and addressed the care gap in ageing and young populations.
- Nordic Countries’ Example: Nations like Sweden and Norway offer state-supported childcare, generous parental leave, and policies that promote shared caregiving roles, fostering strong welfare systems and improving gender equity.
What are the demographic risks of excluding women from the workforce?
- Rising Dependency Ratio: When women are excluded, fewer people contribute economically while more depend on them, especially as India’s population ages. Eg: By 2050, nearly 20% of Indians will be senior citizens, increasing the burden on a shrinking working population.
- Shrinking Labour Force: Low female participation limits the potential of India’s large youth base, reducing the nation’s demographic dividend. Eg: India’s female labour force participation was just 24% in 2023, compared to over 60% in many developing nations.
- Stagnant Economic Growth: Without women’s inclusion, GDP growth slows, and the country may miss massive income gains. Eg: McKinsey Global Institute estimated India could add $770 billion to its GDP by 2025 by closing gender gaps.
What are the demographic risks of excluding women from the workforce?
- Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (BBBP): Launched in 2015, this scheme aims to improve the child sex ratio, ensure education for girls, and raise awareness against gender discrimination.
- Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY): This maternity benefit scheme provides financial support to pregnant and lactating women for their first childbirth, promoting nutrition and health.
- Mahila Shakti Kendra (MSK): MSKs offer support services at the grassroots level, including skill training, employment guidance, legal aid, and digital literacy to empower rural women.
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Way forward:
- Invest in Women-Centric Infrastructure: Enhance public spending on healthcare, childcare, and eldercare services, especially at the primary level, to support women’s well-being and free up time for economic participation.
- Institutionalize Gender-Responsive Policies: Implement gender budgeting, time-use surveys, and inclusive labour reforms to recognize unpaid care work and promote women’s entry into the formal workforce.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2019] Empowering women is the key to control population growth”. Discuss
Linkage: The PYQ’s focus on “Empowering women” directly reflects this crucial aspect of granting individuals, particularly young women, the choice and control over their bodies and lives. The article further elaborates that true empowerment means equipping adolescents, especially girls, with the skills, education, and opportunities. |
Mentor’s Comment: The World Population Day 2025 has reignited global and national discussions on youth empowerment, reproductive rights, and falling fertility rates. With the theme “Empowering young people to create the families they want in a fair and hopeful world”, the UN highlights the need for informed reproductive choices and access to health, education, and economic opportunities, especially for India’s large youth population. The day also coincides with the release of the UNFPA’s State of World Population Report 2025, which warns that the real fertility crisis lies not in declining birth rates, but in the unmet reproductive goals due to financial, social, and infrastructural constraints.
Today’s editorial analyses the youth empowerment, reproductive rights, and falling fertility rates. This topic is important for GS Paper I (Indian Society) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
Recently, World Population Day 2025 has brought renewed attention to global and national debates on empowering youth, ensuring reproductive rights, and addressing the challenges of declining fertility rates.
Why is youth empowerment essential for harnessing India’s demographic dividend?
- India’s youth population is a major economic asset: With over 371 million people aged 15–29, India has the world’s largest youth population. If equipped with quality education, skills, health, and family planning services, this segment can become a powerful engine of economic growth and innovation.
- Youth empowerment boosts national productivity and employment: Empowered youth can significantly reduce unemployment and enhance social outcomes. According to the World Bank and NITI Aayog, unlocking youth potential could increase India’s GDP by up to $1 trillion by 2030.
- Empowerment ensures participation in nation-building: By promoting reproductive autonomy, gender equality, and economic independence, youth, especially young women, can participate in decision-making and shape their futures, contributing meaningfully to sustainable development.
What barriers hinder reproductive autonomy and fertility choices in India?
- Limited access to family planning services and information: A significant share of the population lacks access to modern contraceptives, comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education, and counselling. Eg: According to the UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025, 36% of Indian adults faced unintended pregnancies, while 30% had unmet reproductive goals, reflecting systemic gaps in reproductive healthcare access.
- Socio-cultural norms and gender inequality: Patriarchal attitudes, early marriages, and taboos around women’s reproductive rights often prevent young women from making independent fertility decisions. Eg: Though child marriage rates have declined, they remain high at 23.3% (NFHS-5, 2019–21), indicating how cultural practices continue to limit women’s reproductive autonomy.
- Economic insecurity and structural barriers: Financial constraints, lack of housing, quality childcare, and secure employment inhibit couples from achieving their desired family size. Eg: A UNFPA survey found that 38% of Indian respondents cited financial limitations and 22% housing constraintsas major reasons for not fulfilling fertility aspirations.
How have schemes tackled child marriage and women’s empowerment?
- Promoting girls’ education to delay early marriages: Schemes like Project Udaan in Rajasthan focused on keeping girls in secondary school using government scholarships, reducing the incidence of child marriage and teenage pregnancy.
- Enhancing reproductive health awareness and services: Programmes such as Udaan and Advika improved access to modern contraceptives and sexual and reproductive health education, thereby strengthening reproductive agency among young women.
- Empowering adolescents through life skills and leadership training: The Advika programme in Odisha helped prevent child marriage by providing life-skills training, leadership development, and child protection awareness across thousands of villages.
- Fostering economic independence and employment: Project Manzil, implemented in Rajasthan, aligned skill training with young women’s aspirations and connected them to gender-sensitive workplaces, empowering over 16,000 women with employment and negotiation power.
- Engaging communities to shift social norms: Behaviour change strategies under projects like Manzil worked to challenge harmful gender norms and involved families and communities, leading to reduced resistance against girls’ education and work.
Why should population discourse focus on rights and gender equity over fertility panic?
- Respecting reproductive autonomy prevents coercion: Framing falling fertility as a “crisis” can lead to target-driven pronatalist policies that pressure women to reproduce, threatening their right to bodily autonomy. Eg: In countries like Hungary and Iran, such policies have led to restrictions on abortion and contraception, undermining women’s freedom.
- Empowering women yields long-term social gains: Promoting gender equality, economic participation, and education for women improves both fertility decisions and broader development outcomes. Eg: Nordic countries like Sweden focus on workplace equality and parental leave, ensuring women can choose when and whether to have children.
- Inclusive policy design avoids harmful stereotyping: Fertility panic often ignores the needs of those who want children but face barriers, while blaming those who are voluntarily childfree. Eg: The UNFPA’s 2025 report shows that 40% of respondents globally had to forgo childbearing due to financial and structural obstacles, not personal choice.
What can India learn from global responses to fertility decline?
- Focus on enabling choices, not coercion: Countries like South Korea have spent billions on pronatalist incentives, but results remained limited until recent societal support systems (e.g., childcare, housing, and financial aid) improved. India must prioritize voluntary reproductive agency over target-driven incentives.
- Promote gender equity in workforce and caregiving: Fertility policies that reinforce traditional gender roles have backfired. Instead of pressuring women to bear more children, countries like Sweden have boosted fertility by promoting gender-equal parenting, paternal leave, and women’s employment, which India can emulate.
Way forward:
- Invest in rights-based reproductive health systems: Ensure universal access to quality contraceptives, safe abortion, maternal care, and infertility services, while safeguarding individuals’ reproductive autonomy through accurate health education and gender-sensitive policies.
- Shift from fertility targets to gender equity: Focus on empowering women through education, economic independence, and childcare support, instead of promoting pronatalist incentives that risk reinforcing patriarchal norms and limiting personal choices.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2024] What is disaster resilience? How is it determined? Describe various elements of a resilience framework. Also mention the global targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030).
Linkage: This PYQ, focusing on “disaster resilience” and “Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR),” provides an excellent framework to discuss how catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) function as a financial planning tool for natural disasters. The article “Catastrophe Bonds: Insuring India’s Future Against Disasters” directly addresses the need for such instruments in India’s disaster management strategy. |
Mentor’s Comment: Catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) are in the spotlight as India explores innovative disaster risk financing amid rising climate-related calamities. With low disaster insurance penetration, India is considering cat bonds to strengthen post-disaster response, reduce fiscal shocks, and lead a regional South Asian initiative. Global success stories and India’s proactive mitigation funding have revived interest in adopting this financial tool.
Today’s editorial analyses the Catastrophe bonds (cat bonds). This topic is important for GS Paper III (Disaster Management) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
As climate change causes more frequent disasters, countries and insurers are using cat bonds to manage risk. These bonds help raise funds from markets for recovery and rebuilding after disasters.
What are catastrophe bonds?
- Catastrophe bonds are risk-linked securities that transfer disaster risk from issuers (usually governments or insurers) to investors. They are triggered when a predefined catastrophic event (like an earthquake, cyclone, or flood) occurs.
- Eg: The World Bank issued cat bonds for Mexico and Pacific Island countries to cover tropical cyclone and earthquake risks.
How do they function as instruments for disaster risk financing?
- Governments (sponsors) pay premiums, and the principal becomes the insured sum; if a disaster hits, investors lose their principal, which goes to recovery. Intermediaries like the World Bank issue the bond, ensuring reliability and reduced counter-party risk.
- They ensure quicker payouts, reduce dependency on budget allocations, and transfer risk away from insurers to global markets.
Why is disaster risk insurance penetration low in India?
- Lack of Awareness and Financial Literacy: Many individuals, especially in rural and hazard-prone areas, are unaware of the importance or availability of disaster insurance. Eg: Farmers vulnerable to floods or droughts often rely on government relief instead of purchasing crop insurance.
- High Premium Costs and Perceived Low Returns: Insurance premiums are often considered unaffordable or unnecessary, especially when disasters seem unlikely in the short term. Eg: Urban households in seismic zones like Delhi-NCR rarely insure homes against earthquakes.
- Limited Private Sector Participation and Poor Outreach: The insurance market remains underdeveloped, with few disaster-specific products and limited last-mile delivery mechanisms. Eg: MSMEs in coastal Odisha remain uninsured despite repeated cyclone exposure due to poor insurer penetration.
How can cat bonds address this gap?
- Access to Global Capital Markets: Cat bonds transfer disaster risk from governments to global investors, increasing the funding pool for post-disaster recovery. Eg: After Hurricane Maria (2017), Mexico accessed $150 million via a World Bank-backed cat bond, enabling rapid relief.
- Ensure Quick Payouts for Emergencies: Cat bonds use trigger-based mechanisms (e.g. earthquake magnitude, wind speed) to enable fast disbursement of funds. Eg: In 2021, the Philippines received $52.5 million within weeks after Typhoon Rai, due to pre-agreed cat bond triggers.
- Reduce Fiscal Pressure on Governments: Pre-disaster financing through cat bonds helps avoid budget shocks and reduce dependency on ad-hoc aid or borrowing. Eg: A cyclone-risk cat bond for Bay of Bengal can pre-finance relief for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
How can India benefit from a regional South Asian cat bond?
- Shared Risk Pooling for Cost Efficiency: By joining a regional cat bond with countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, India can pool disaster risks, reducing the premium burden and increasing affordability. Eg: The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company (PCRIC) pools risk for Pacific island nations, lowering overall costs.
- Boosts Regional Cooperation and Preparedness: A shared bond encourages joint early warning systems, emergency planning, and data sharing, improving collective disaster readiness. Eg: SAARC Disaster Management Centre can coordinate common triggers and payout parameters across South Asia.
- Access to Larger and Diverse Capital Markets: A regional bond can attract more global investors by offering diversified risk, improving fund availability post-disaster for quick response and recovery. Eg: The World Bank’s Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Insurance Facility (SEADRIF) supports countries like Laos and Myanmar through pooled financing.
What are the key risks in designing and implementing cat bonds?
- Basis Risk (Mismatch Between Trigger and Actual Loss): There’s a risk that the bond may not pay out even when severe losses occur, if the predefined trigger (e.g., earthquake magnitude or rainfall level) is not met, undermining trust and utility.
- High Setup and Transaction Costs: Cat bonds require specialized modeling, legal structuring, and investor engagement, which may be too complex or expensive for lower-income or disaster-prone regions without external support.
Why should India diversify its disaster financing amid climate risks?
- Rising Frequency and Intensity of Disasters: Climate change is increasing the number of extreme weather events like floods, cyclones, and droughts. Sole reliance on budgetary support and relief funds is unsustainable, making diversified financing (like cat bonds, parametric insurance) essential.
- Reducing Fiscal Burden and Ensuring Faster Relief: A diversified disaster financing system helps minimize delays in post-disaster response and lessens pressure on state and central budgets, allowing for quick payouts and resilient recovery.
Way forward:
- Promote Risk-Based Financing Instruments: Encourage the use of catastrophe bonds, parametric insurance, and public-private partnerships to diversify disaster risk funding and ensure timely payouts.
- Strengthen Institutional Capacity and Data Systems: Develop robust disaster risk assessment tools, improve climate modelling, and integrate early warning systems to design effective and credible financial instruments.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2024] Examine the need for electoral reforms as suggest ed by various committees with particular reference to “one na tion-one election” principle.
Linkage: The article talks about the “Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar,” initiated on June 24, 2025, after a gap of over 20 years. This SIR is described as a “complete reconstruction of the electoral rolls” based on document submission which is directly related electoral reforms given in question. |
Mentor’s Comment: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has launched a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls in Bihar, just months before the upcoming State Assembly elections in 2025. The process has drawn widespread criticism for being sudden, opaque, and document-heavy, potentially disenfranchising lakhs of eligible voters, particularly migrants, Muslims, and the poor. It is now being challenged in the Supreme Court for violating fundamental rights such as the right to vote, equality, and dignity. The issue has national implications, as similar exercises are reportedly planned in other states.
Today’s editorial analyses the issues related to Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls in Bihar. This topic is important for GS Paper II (Polity and Governance) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
Recently, the Election Commission of India (ECI) started a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar, just a few months before the 2025 State Assembly elections.
What is Special Intensive Revision (SIR)?
Special Intensive Revision (SIR) is a process carried out by the Election Commission of India (ECI) to update and verify the electoral rolls (voter lists) more thoroughly than usual.
Key Features of SIR:
- Not a routine update: Unlike regular annual revisions, SIR involves a more detailed and document-heavy verification process.
- Document verification: Voters are required to submit proof of citizenship (like birth certificates, land documents, or school records), especially if they are not listed in older rolls (e.g., from 2003).
- Purpose: Officially, it aims to: Remove duplicate or deceased voters, Identify ineligible entries, and Add newly eligible voters.
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Why is the Bihar Special Intensive Revision (SIR) seen as a threat to electoral democracy?
- Sudden and Opaque Implementation: The SIR was launched abruptly in June 2025 with minimal public awareness and a tight deadline of July 31, offering little time for a state with high migration and low documentation. Eg: Migrants working outside Bihar during monsoon may be excluded due to inability to submit documents on time.
- Document-Heavy Verification Process: Common documents like Aadhaar or voter ID are not accepted. Instead, hard-to-obtain papers like birth certificates, land records, or matriculation certificates are required, placing a disproportionate burden on poor, rural populations.
- Creation of a Two-Tier Citizenship: The process presumes voters not on the 2003 rolls are “suspect” citizens until proven otherwise, undermining the principle of universal adult franchise and equal voting rights. Eg: Like in Assam’s NRC, the burden of proof shifts to individuals, potentially creating a permanent class of disenfranchised citizens.
- Violation of Natural Justice: Requiring voters to prove citizenship reverses the principle of “innocent until proven guilty” and treats individuals as suspect citizens unless they can prove otherwise. Eg: In the Bihar SIR process, those not on the 2003 voter list must submit rarely available documents like birth certificates or land records, making many vulnerable to arbitrary exclusion.
How does the Bihar SIR compare with Assam’s NRC exercise?
| Aspect |
Bihar SIR (2025) |
Assam NRC (2013–2019) |
| 1. Suddenness vs. Supervised Process |
Launched suddenly with only one-month deadline, causing logistical challenges. |
Conducted over six years, supervised by Supreme Court, with phased rollout. |
| 2. Legal Oversight |
No direct judicial monitoring; raises concerns about transparency and accountability. |
Directly monitored by the Supreme Court, ensuring legal safeguards. |
| 3. Scale and Timeframe |
Targets 50 million voters in just one monsoon month, with floods and migration. |
Covered 33 million applicants in multiple phases over years. |
| 4. Document Requirements |
Demands rare documents (birth/matriculation/land records); common IDs not accepted. |
Required legacy documents, but provided assistance centres and lists. |
| 5. Purpose and Outcome |
Ostensibly for voter list update, but risks becoming a citizenship test, causing mass disenfranchisement. |
Explicitly aimed at identifying illegal immigrants; excluded 19 lakh people. |
What constitutional principles are at stake in the current voter verification drive?
- Universal Adult Franchise: Article 326 guarantees every Indian citizen above 18 the right to vote without discrimination. The demand for rare documents like land titles or educational certificates risks excluding poor and illiterate citizens.
- Equality Before Law (Article 14): The selective burden of proof imposed on new or undocumented voters violates the principle of equal treatment. It creates two classes of citizens — one presumed to be voters and another forced to prove eligibility.
- Presumption of Innocence (Principle of Natural Justice): The shift of burden from the state to the citizen undermines the principle that individuals are “innocent until proven guilty.”
Who are the vulnerable groups most affected by the SIR process?
- Migrant Workers: The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) disproportionately affects migrant workers who are often away from their home constituencies during the verification period, especially in July, a peak seasonal migration month.
- Poor and Illiterate Citizens: Those from economically weaker sections, particularly in rural areas, often lack the official documents such as birth certificates, matriculation degrees, or land records now required for voter verification. Their reliance on documents like Aadhaar, ration cards, or job cards, which the ECI currently does not accept, puts them at risk of disenfranchisement.
- Women (especially Elderly or Homemakers): Many women, especially widows, elderly, or those confined to domestic roles, are not listed on ownership documents and may lack the required identity proofs.
- Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (SCs/STs): Historically marginalised communities such as SCs and STs face greater hurdles due to their geographic isolation, poor access to services, and lower literacy levels, making it harder to furnish the required documentation to prove citizenship or residence.
- Urban Slum Dwellers and Informal Settlers: Migrants living in slums or unauthorised colonies in cities often lack registered addresses, utility bills, or tenancy documents. This makes it difficult to verify their voter eligibility either in their native village or in the urban location, risking double exclusion from electoral rolls.
Way forward:
- Ensure Inclusive and Transparent Voter Verification Process: Extend the verification timeline, especially in high-migration and flood-prone regions like Bihar. Accept commonly held identity documents such as Aadhaar, voter ID, and ration cards as valid proof. This would reduce arbitrary exclusions and uphold the principle of universal franchise.
- Protect Vulnerable Groups through Targeted Support: Launch doorstep assistance, mobile camps, and helplines in rural, tribal, and urban slum areas to help citizens gather documents and complete verification. Special provisions should be made for migrants, women, SC/STs, and informal workers, ensuring no one is disenfranchised due to procedural hurdles.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2018] The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same.
Linkage: The Article state that China’s traditional strategy involves “building up Pakistan’s strategic and conventional capabilities through overt and covert help to counter India and keep it off-balance”. This question directly relates to the “China-Pakistan nexus” by focusing on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). |
Mentor’s Comment: The Indian Army has officially confirmed what experts had long suspected, China directly helped Pakistan during Operation Sindoor (May 7–10), marking a major change in their military relationship. For the first time, China supported Pakistan in battle by sharing real-time surveillance data, using advanced weapons together, and spreading information online — all without openly escalating the conflict. This has turned the idea of a “two-front war” into a “one-front reinforced” war, where China backs Pakistan more closely in a real conflict. China’s support included high-tech weapons, cyber tools, and diplomatic moves at the UN, while avoiding any clear criticism of the Pahalgam terror attack. The use of Chinese-made fighter jets, drones, and air defence systems by Pakistan during the fighting is a game-changer and means India needs to rethink its defence strategy.
Today’s editorial analyses the China-Pakistan military collusion and its impact. This topic is important for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
The new “one-front reinforced” threat is now real, not just an idea. India must now rethink how it defends itself, update its military equipment, and clearly show its strength to others.
What are the strategic implications of China-Pakistan military collusion for India’s security?
- Increased Security Threat from a “One-Front Reinforced War”: A conflict with Pakistan now includes covert Chinese support, transforming it into a hybrid front rather than a standalone battle. India must prepare for simultaneous pressure on both borders, diluting its strategic flexibility. Eg: During Operation Sindoor (May 2025), China provided real-time ISR support and surveillance data to Pakistan.
- Enhanced Pakistani Military Capabilities via Chinese Technology: Pakistan’s use of advanced Chinese weapons systems improves its operational effectiveness and battlefield confidence. This deepens strategic asymmetry and reduces India’s military advantage. Eg: Pakistan deployed Chinese J-10C fighters and HQ-9 air defence systems, guided by China’s BeiDou satellites, during active operations.
- Erosion of India’s Strategic Autonomy and Deterrence: Collusion undermines India’s ability to execute punitive strikes without risking escalation or Chinese interference. India must now calibrate its response to avoid wider regional destabilisation. Eg: China blocked India’s diplomatic push at the UNSC post-Pahalgam attack and echoed Pakistan’s narrative, limiting India’s international manoeuvring space.
How has China’s role in India-Pakistan conflicts evolved over time?
- From Passive Diplomatic Support to Active Collusion: In earlier conflicts (1965, 1971, Kargil 1999), China offered only diplomatic or symbolic support to Pakistan without direct involvement. Now, China is actively enhancing Pakistan’s battlefield capabilities through technology and real-time support. Eg: In Operation Sindoor (2025).
- Use of Advanced Defence and ISR Systems: China has moved from supplying basic military hardware to enabling operational interoperability and network-centric warfare. Chinese platforms are now tactically integrated into Pakistan’s military exercises and combat. Eg: Deployment of Chinese J-10C fighters, PL-15 missiles, and BeiDou navigation for missile guidance shows deeper integration.
- Strategic Messaging and Digital Warfare Support: China now also supports Pakistan via propaganda, perception warfare, and digital influence operations. It helps shape global narratives and reduces diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. Eg: Chinese media amplified Pakistan’s ISPR propaganda during Operation Sindoor and resisted India’s push at the UNSC, aligning with Pakistan’s narrative.
What is a “One-Front Reinforced War”?
A “one-front reinforced war” refers to a conflict scenario where India fights on one primary front (e.g., against Pakistan), but this front is reinforced by active support from another adversary (e.g., China) without that second adversary being officially at war.
Why is the “one-front reinforced war” concept critical for India’s defence strategy?
- Unified Threat Vector: The China-Pakistan collusion has created a combined strategic front, making it harder for India to manage threats separately.
- Reduced Response Window: India faces a compressed decision-making timeline and resource overstretch, requiring faster and more coordinated defence responses. Eg: Despite the 2024 Ladakh disengagement, large Indian deployments are still needed on both the LAC and LoC.
- Need for Capability Boost: The “one-front” scenario highlights the urgency to upgrade conventional deterrence, invest in modern warfare tech, and adapt military doctrine. Eg: Pakistan acquiring Chinese J-35 stealth jets, KJ-500 AEW&C, and HQ-19 missile defence systems intensifies pressure on India to respond.
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How should India respond to rising two-front challenges amid declining defence spending?
- Increase Defence Allocation and Modernise Capabilities: India must reverse the decline in defence expenditure (from 17.1% of central spending in 2014-15 to 13% in 2025-26) and invest in next-generation warfare capabilities. This includes drones, AI-enabled surveillance, cyber defence, and network-centric warfare systems.
- Adopt Asymmetric and Unpredictable Response Strategies: India should avoid predictable retaliation and adopt multi-domain deterrence, including economic, cyber, and covert measures. Eg: Strategic reconsideration of agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty, economic sanctions on critical Chinese firms, or calibrated cyber operations.
- Institutional and Diplomatic Realignment: India needs to bolster its international alliances and ensure seamless coordination between the armed forces, intelligence agencies, and foreign policy apparatus. Eg: Deepening defence ties with the Quad members, France, and Israel for intelligence sharing, joint exercises, and technology transfer.
Way forward:
- Strengthen Integrated Defence Capabilities: India must invest in network-centric warfare, ISR systems, drone technologies, and joint-force interoperability to counter a reinforced adversary. Enhancing real-time battlefield awareness and communication across services is key.
- Recalibrate Strategic and Diplomatic Posture: India should link China’s strategic collusion with Pakistan to its bilateral ties, signalling consequences for such behaviour. Simultaneously, boost alliances like QUAD, and explore unpublicised retaliatory options (e.g., Indus Waters Treaty leverage) to deter future collusion.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2024] What changes has the Union Government recently introduced in the domain of Centre-State relations? Suggest measures to be adopted to build the trust between the Centre and the States and for strengthening federalism.
Linkage: The articles discusses how India’s democratic backsliding occurred partly due to the exploitation of constitutional weaknesses and how “the deeper damage to political culture, to institutions, to the idea that constitutionalism alone can protect democracy remains” after the Emergency. |
Mentor’s Comment: On U.S. Independence Day, reflections by Judge J. Michael Luttig and a look back at India’s 1975 Emergency give a strong warning about how democracy can be weakened from within. It compares how Indira Gandhi misused the Constitution in India to how leaders like Donald Trump show signs of authoritarianism in America. It highlights that freedom and rights can be lost not by war, but by twisting laws and failing institutions. The Emergency period still feels relevant today, as many democracies around the world face similar dangers. It’s a reminder that constant vigilance is the price of liberty.
Today’s editorial analyses the 1975 Emergency and its impact in India. This topic is important for GS Paper II (Indian Polity) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
The same problems that caused the Emergency in India are now putting the U.S. at risk. The lesson is that tyranny grows when important institutions stop doing their job.
What Constitutional gaps enabled the 1975 Emergency’s misuse?
- Vague Grounds for Proclaiming Emergency (Article 352): The term “internal disturbance” (before it was amended to “armed rebellion” by the 44th Amendment) was undefined, allowing the government to declare an Emergency without sufficient justification.
- Lack of Judicial Safeguards: The judiciary, including the Supreme Court, failed to protect fundamental rights. In the ADM Jabalpur case (1976), the Court ruled that even the right to life could be suspended, revealing a serious weakness in judicial independence and constitutional checks.
- Absence of Parliamentary Oversight Mechanisms: There was no mandatory review or time limit for an Emergency once proclaimed. Parliament was not empowered to effectively question or revoke the declaration, enabling prolonged executive overreach.
- Preventive Detention Laws without Safeguards: Laws like the Maintenance of Internal Security Act (MISA) allowed for the detention of individuals without trial, and the suspension of habeas corpus, giving the executive near-total control over personal freedoms.
How did the Emergency weaken democratic institutions in India?
- Suppressing the Free Press: The government imposed pre-censorship on newspapers like The Indian Express and The Statesman, curbing freedom of the press. Journalists were jailed, and dissenting voices silenced, eroding media independence.
- Paralysing the Legislature and Bureaucracy: Parliament became a rubber stamp, passing ordinances and amendments without real debate. Civil servants and ministers followed orders unquestioningly, prioritising loyalty over legality, thereby hollowing out institutional integrity.
Why is India’s Emergency relevant to the current global democratic decline?
- Authoritarianism through Legal Means: The 1975 Emergency showed how laws can be manipulated to suspend rights and suppress dissent without military coups. Today, similar tactics are used globally — leaders use legal loopholes and executive decrees to weaken democratic norms (e.g., Hungary’s rule-by-decree during the COVID-19 pandemic).
- Erosion of Institutional Independence: During the Emergency, judiciary, media, and civil services failed to resist executive overreach. This institutional submission mirrors current trends in several democracies where checks and balances are compromised under pressure (e.g., judiciary weakening in Turkey and political pressure on U.S. law enforcement).
- Cult of Personality and Centralised Power: Indira Gandhi’s consolidation of power and her son’s parallel command structure resemble modern populist leadershipsthat centralise authority, undermine opposition, and control narratives (e.g., executive overreach in Brazil, Philippines, or even Russia).
What ethical duties do institutions hold in resisting authoritarianism?
- Upholding Constitutional Values: Institutions like the judiciary, legislature, and civil services must prioritise the Constitution over political loyalty, ensuring that democratic principles, civil liberties, and rule of law are never compromised.
- Maintaining Institutional Independence: Institutions have a duty to remain independent and impartial, resisting pressure from the executive or ruling parties. This includes protecting dissent, enabling checks and balances, and avoiding complicity in authoritarian overreach.
- Defending Public Trust and Accountability: Ethical responsibility requires institutions to serve the public interest, not individual leaders. They must ensure transparency, fairness, and accountability, especially during crises when democratic norms are most vulnerable.
How can citizens safeguard democracy from internal threats?
- Active Civic Participation: Citizens must engage in democratic processes such as voting, peaceful protest, and public discourse to hold leaders accountable. Eg: Mass movements like India’s JP Movement in the 1970s or the U.S. Civil Rights Movement helped restore democratic accountability.
- Demanding Transparency and Accountability: Citizens should question government actions, demand answers through RTI, media, and civil society platforms, and resist normalisation of unconstitutional acts. Eg: Public pressure during India’s anti-corruption movement (2011) led to the Lokpal Act.
- Promoting Constitutional Literacy and Vigilance: A well-informed public is less likely to fall for authoritarian rhetoric. Citizens must educate themselves about constitutional rights and duties, enabling them to recognize and resist erosion of democratic norms.
Way forward:
- Strengthen Institutional Independence: Ensure autonomy of key democratic institutions like the judiciary, election commission, and media through legal safeguards and transparent appointments to resist political influence.
- Promote Constitutional Literacy and Civic Engagement: Launch nationwide awareness campaigns and integrate constitutional values into education to empower citizens to uphold democratic principles and resist authoritarianism.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2024] Discuss India as a secular state and compare with the secular principles of the US Constitution.
Linkage: This question directly addresses India’s secular character. The article explicitly defines Indian secularism not as “mere religious neutrality but the positive assurance that the state will treat all religions equally, protect the rights of minorities, and ensure that no citizen suffers discrimination on the basis of faith”. |
Mentor’s Comment: The words (socialism and secularism) were added during the Emergency through the 42nd Constitutional Amendment (1976), but they are not just additions; they are core values that reflect the spirit of India’s freedom struggle and the vision of the Constitution’s framers.
Today’s editorial analyses the impact of the removal of socialism and secularism in the Indian Constitution. This topic is important for GS Paper II (Indian Polity) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
The recent statement by the right-wing leader advocating the removal of “socialism” and “secularism” from the Preamble of the Constitution has triggered widespread concern.
What is the role of socialism and secularism beyond the Preamble?
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Role of Socialism beyond the Preamble:
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- Embedded in Directive Principles: Articles like 38, 39, 41–43 guide the state to secure economic justice, reduce inequality, and promote welfare measures.
- Reflected in Fundamental Rights: Article 14 (equality before law) and Article 16 (equal opportunity in public employment) embody the socialist commitment to justice and dignity.
- Guides Judicial and Legislative Action: Courts and lawmakers have interpreted and enacted policies (like land reforms, reservation, public healthcare) in line with socialist philosophy to ensure inclusive growth.
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Role of Secularism beyond the Preamble:
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- Constitutional Protections for Religious Freedom: Articles 25–28 ensure freedom of religion, worship, and prohibit religious taxes or religious instruction in state-funded institutions.
- Equality and Non-Discrimination: Articles 15 and 29–30 ensure that no citizen is discriminated against based on religion and that minority cultural and educational rights are protected.
- Part of Basic Structure Doctrine: The Supreme Court has affirmed that secularism is inherent to the Constitution’s basic structure, safeguarding religious neutrality of the state in governance. Eg: In S.R. Bommai v. Union of India (1994), secularism was upheld as part of the basic structure.
Why is removing socialism and secularism seen as a threat to the basic structure?
- Undermines Constitutional Guarantees of Equality and Justice: Secularism ensures the equal treatment of all religions and protects minority rights, while socialism underpins the goal of economic equality and a welfare state. Their removal would weaken the guarantee of justice, liberty, and equality. Eg: Articles 14–16 (Right to Equality) and 25–30 (Freedom of Religion and Minority Rights) draw directly from secular and socialist ideals.
- Contradicts the Foundational Vision of the Constitution: The Objective Resolution, Constituent Assembly Debates, and freedom struggle clearly endorsed secular and socialist principles as integral to India’s identity. Removing them attempts to rewrite history and alter the spirit of the Constitution. Eg: Dr. B.R. Ambedkar’s final speech in the Constituent Assembly emphasized equality and fraternity—values rooted in socialism and secularism.
How do India’s freedom struggle and debates reflect these constitutional values?
- Freedom Struggle Emphasised Equality and Social Justice (Socialism): Leaders like MK Gandhi, Nehru, and Ambedkar envisioned an India free not only from colonial rule but also from poverty, caste oppression, and economic exploitation. These ideals laid the foundation for a socialist orientation in the Constitution, focusing on welfare, equitable distribution, and dignity for all.
- Constituent Assembly Debates Favoured Religious Pluralism and Inclusion (Secularism): The framers, influenced by India’s diverse social fabric, stressed a neutral state that treats all religions equally. Debates clearly show a consensus that religion should not influence state affairs, leading to the inclusion of secular provisions like Articles 25–28.
How has the Supreme Court upheld secularism under the basic structure doctrine?
- Kesavananda Bharati Case (1973): The Court held that Parliament cannot alter the “basic structure” of the Constitution. Though this case didn’t directly address secularism, it laid the foundation for later rulings protecting it as part of the core constitutional philosophy.
- S.R. Bommai Case (1994): The Court explicitly declared that secularism is part of the Constitution’s basic structure. It ruled that a state government can be dismissed if it acts against secular principles, reinforcing that the State must remain neutral and equidistant from all religions.
- Aruna Roy v. Union of India (2002): The Court upheld that secularism does not mean hostility to religion, but rather equal respect for all religions (Sarva Dharma Sambhava). It reaffirmed that religious pluralism and tolerance are integral to the Indian State’s identity.
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Way forward:
- Strengthen Constitutional Literacy and Civic Education: Promote widespread awareness about the values of socialism and secularism embedded in the Constitution through school curricula, public campaigns, and community programs. An informed citizenry is essential to defend constitutional principles against any attempts at dilution.
- Judicial and Legislative Vigilance: The judiciary must remain proactive in upholding secularism and social justice as part of the basic structure doctrine. Parliamentarians and civil society must oppose regressive amendments and uphold constitutional morality in lawmaking and governance.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2015] Terrorist activities and mutual distrust have clouded India-Pakistan relations. To what extent the use of soft power like sports and cultural exchanges could help generate goodwill between the two countries? Discuss with suitable examples.
Linkage: This question directly linked with the central issue of “mutual distrust” and “terrorist activities” between India and Pakistan, which are explicit drivers of the complex “triangular relationship”. The article mentions India’s diplomatic campaign to isolate Pakistan globally and impose accountability on the state apparatus enabling terrorist groups. |
Mentor’s Comment: The renewed ties between the Trump-led U.S. government and Pakistan’s military, seen in events like the high-profile lunch with Field Marshal Asim Munir and the return of military aid, show a clear shift in America’s approach to South Asia. This change, similar to the Cold War era, could weaken the strong U.S.-India partnership built on shared concerns over terrorism and China. At the same time, India has moved away from its earlier cautious approach, as shown by Operation Sindoor, raising the risk of conflict on two fronts against both Pakistan and China. As the U.S. balances between long-term strategy and short-term deals, the power dynamics in South Asia are being reshaped.
Today’s editorial analyse the renewed ties between the Trump-led U.S. government and Pakistan’s military. This topic is important for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
In the complicated power politics of South Asia, the relationship between the United States, India, and Pakistan tells an important story.
What drives the recent shift in U.S.-Pakistan relations?
- Transactional Diplomacy Over Strategic Values: The U.S., particularly under the Trump administration, has adopted a deal-based approach rather than value-based alliances. Eg: Authorisation of $397 million for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet for “counter-terrorism” signals a shift towards immediate tactical gains rather than long-term strategic alignment with India.
- Pakistan’s Geostrategic Leverage: Pakistan’s location at the crossroads of Afghanistan, Iran, and China enhances its strategic utility for U.S. regional interests, especially amid tensions in West Asia. Eg: Trump’s praise of Pakistan’s role in understanding Iran and his meeting with “Field Marshal” Asim Munir show a willingness to engage Pakistan despite its terror-linked image.
How is it affecting U.S.-India strategic relations?
- Erosion of Strategic Trust: India-U.S. partnership, built over counterterrorism cooperation and convergence on China, is being undermined by the U.S.’s renewed engagement with Pakistan. Eg: Trump’s claim of mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan contradicted India’s “no third-party” policy, leading to diplomatic discomfort.
- Increased Strategic Caution in India: India’s concern over U.S.-Pakistan proximity may lead it to recalibrate its own foreign policy posture, especially in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. It may reduce India’s reliance on U.S. support in regional disputes, focusing instead on self-reliant deterrence and regional alliances.
- Undermining of U.S.-India Indo-Pacific Vision: The Quad framework and Indo-Pacific cooperation, key pillars of U.S.-India ties, risk losing momentum due to America’s distracted diplomacy in South Asia.
What is the significance of India’s “new normal” doctrine in South Asia?
- Departure from Strategic Restraint: India’s “new normal” reflects a proactive military and diplomatic posture against cross-border terrorism, moving away from its earlier defensive doctrine. Eg: In response to the Pahalgam terror attack, India launched Operation Sindoor, signaling its intent to punish provocations decisively.
- Global Isolation of State-Sponsored Terrorism: The doctrine aims to internationally isolate Pakistan by linking terror acts to state support, thereby shifting global opinion and increasing diplomatic pressure.
Eg: India’s efforts in UN forums to designate Pakistan-based terror groups under sanctions align with this approach.
- Regional Deterrence and Strategic Signaling: It serves as a deterrent by altering Pakistan’s cost-benefit calculation of supporting non-state actors, while also sending a message to China amid a two-front threat perception. Eg: Statements by PM of India calling the ceasefire a “pause, not peace” indicate sustained pressure on both Pakistan and its backer, China.
Who gains or loses from the U.S.’s ambivalent role in India-Pakistan dynamics?
- Pakistan Gains Strategic Leverage: The U.S.’s ambiguity allows Pakistan to portray itself as a valuable security partner, especially in the context of Afghanistan, Iran, and regional logistics.
- India Faces Diplomatic Setbacks: U.S. engagement with Pakistan undermines India’s strategic trust in the U.S., weakening its position on issues like cross-border terrorism and Kashmir.
- The U.S. Risks Losing Credibility: By oscillating between idealism and transactionalism, the U.S. dilutes its reliability as a consistent global partner, particularly in the Indo-Pacific strategy. Eg: India’s growing ties with Russia and Iran, and its push for strategic autonomy, partly stem from concerns over U.S. inconsistency.
Way forward:
- Strengthen India-U.S. Strategic Dialogue: India should deepen institutional-level engagement with the U.S. to reaffirm mutual interests in the Indo-Pacific, counterterrorism, and technology partnerships, reducing the influence of personality-driven shifts.
- Pursue Regional Strategic Autonomy: India must continue to build bilateral and multilateral ties with like-minded countries (e.g., France, Japan, UAE) to diversify strategic options and reduce overdependence on U.S. foreign policy swings.
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| PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2024] The Doctrine of Democratic Governance makes it necessary that the public perception of the integrity and commitment of civil servants becomes absolutely positive. Discuss.
Linkage: The new criminal codes, through provisions like mandatory audio-video recording of searches and seizures, aim to improve the quality of investigation and ensure greater integrity and commitment from investigating officers (IOs). This directly seeks to foster a positive public perception of civil servants involved in law enforcement, aligning with the query’s emphasis on progress in the new codes. |
Mentor’s Comment: As India completes one year of implementing its overhauled criminal justice framework—comprising the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS), and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam (BSA)—the on-ground feedback is beginning to surface. A major highlight has been the operationalization of the ‘e-Sakshya’ app for real-time evidence collection. While it empowers investigation officers (IOs) and enhances transparency, several systemic and logistical constraints hinder its full potential. Despite attempts at modernization, the gap between legal reforms and infrastructural readiness threatens to blunt the progressive intent of these laws. This transitional phase is a crucial moment for policy correction and investment.
Today’s editorial talks about the effectiveness of India’s new criminal laws—BNS, BNSS, and BSA. This topic is important for GS Paper II (Indian Polity & Governance) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
Recently, India’s new criminal laws—BNS, BNSS, and BSA—mark a year of implementation. Technological tools like the e-Sakshya app aid progress, but feedback from investigating officers reveals key challenges and improvement needs.
What are the key improvements brought by the BNS, BNSS, and BSA in the criminal justice system?
- Modernization of Colonial Laws: The new laws replace the outdated Indian Penal Code (1860), CrPC (1973), and Indian Evidence Act (1872), aligning criminal justice with contemporary realities, citizen-centric values, and technological advancements.
- Integration of Technology in Investigation: The BNSS mandates audio-video recording of critical procedures such as search, seizure, and statement recording. It supports the use of tools like the ‘e-Sakshya’ app for real-time digital evidence collection, improving transparency and accountability.
- Improved Victim-Centric and Time-Bound Procedures: Provisions like seven-day deadlines for medical reports in rape cases and emphasis on video conferencing for witness examination under BNSS aim to ensure faster process, reduce trauma for victims, and increase judicial efficiency.
How has the ‘e-Sakshya’ app enhanced evidence collection and policing?
- Real-time digital documentation: The app enables investigating officers to capture photos and videos on the spot with geo-coordinates and a timestamp, ensuring authenticity and preventing tampering. For instance, during a search and seizure, the officer must record the process under Section 105 of BNSS, improving transparency.
- Improved accountability in investigations: Investigating officers are now required to take selfies at crime scenes, ensuring that they personally conduct the investigation and don’t delegate it unofficially. This deters fabrication of evidence and builds a stronger chain of custody for trial.
- Strengthened witness reliability: The visual capture of witness presence at the crime scene discourages denial of participation later in court. Eg when a suspect is made to show the place where a weapon or contraband is hidden, the recording serves as reliable secondary electronic evidence admissible in court.
Why is digital integration through CCTNS and ICJS vital for the new laws’ success?
- Seamless transition and registration of cases: The Crime and Criminal Tracking Network and Systems (CCTNS) ensures smooth FIR registration and jurisdictional transfers, enabling police stations to shift from old laws to BNS, BNSS, and BSA without disruption. For instance, zero FIRs are easily routed to the correct police stations within a state using CCTNS.
- Interlinking of justice system pillars: The Inter-operable Criminal Justice System (ICJS) connects police with forensic labs, prosecution, courts, and jails, improving coordination and efficiency. This digital integration supports time-bound actions like forwarding medical examination reports or conducting video-based evidence collection as mandated under BNSS.
| Note: About Zero FIR It refers to a First Investigation Report (FIR) that is registered irrespective of the area where the offence is committed. The police in such a case can no longer claim that they have no jurisdiction. |
What are the challenges that hinder the effective implementation of the new criminal laws?
- Inadequate digital infrastructure: Many police stations have only one tablet, and officers often use their personal phones to operate the e-Sakshya app, which requires Android version 10 or higher and at least 1GB of storage. This limits the ability to uniformly implement mandatory audio-video recording provisions under BNSS.
- Lack of real-time integration with courts: While images and videos are stored on the National Government Cloud (NGC), courts still do not directly access this digital evidence through the ICJS. Instead, police submit evidence using pen drives, leading to duplication, extra costs, and delay in proceedings.
- Forensic and legal bottlenecks: Despite the requirement of FSL expert visits under Section 176 of BNSS, forensic infrastructure in many states remains underdeveloped. Also, cybercrime evidence often needs expert analysis and testimony, but State forensic labs are yet to be notified under the IT Act, hampering admissibility of digital evidence.
What reforms are needed to address them? (Way forward)
- Strengthen digital infrastructure in police stations: The government should ensure that each investigating officer (IO) has access to a dedicated device compatible with the e-Sakshya app. Providing sufficient tablets or mobile phones with the required specifications will help officers capture evidence reliably and eliminate the need for using personal devices.
- Enable direct court access to digital evidence: Courts must be integrated with the Inter-operable Criminal Justice System (ICJS) to allow secure, real-time access to evidence stored on the National Government Cloud. This will eliminate dependency on external storage like pen drives and promote efficiency and authenticity in judicial proceedings.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2017] ‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor.
Linkage: It focuses on how China uses its economic power to gain strategic and military advantages, and how this affects India, its neighbor. The article show that Pakistan heavily depends on China for money, support, and infrastructure. With China’s backing, Pakistan could pose new terrorism and security threats to India. |
Mentor’s Comment: China recently held a three-country meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming, soon after a similar one with Pakistan and Afghanistan. These talks show that China is trying to increase its influence in South Asia by bringing India’s neighbours closer, especially as India’s ties with Bangladesh are tense and India is becoming more active in Afghanistan. This reminds us of Cold War-style strategies, where countries tried to surround rivals. As India takes strong action against terrorism and defends its regional interests, China’s new meetings seem to show not just strategy, but also nervousness about India’s growing power.
Today’s editorial talks about the recent meeting between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. This topic is important for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
Last week, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh met together for the first time in a three-country meeting held in Kunming, China.
What are China’s goals behind trilateral talks with Pakistan and others?
- Expand Regional Influence: China aims to increase its geopolitical footprint in South Asia by leading trilateral forums.
- Contain India’s Rise: Trilateral talks help China keep India distracted by regional tensions, limiting its strategic outreach and diplomatic bandwidth. Eg: China’s coordination with Pakistan and Afghanistan shortly after India’s Operation Sindoor aimed to show Pakistan as a regional stakeholder and challenge India’s dominance.
- Promote BRI and Economic Interests: By drawing countries like Afghanistan and Bangladesh closer, China seeks to push its Belt and Road Initiative and related infrastructure investments. Eg: Discussions with Afghanistan have included extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through Afghan territory.
Why is China increasing regional engagement amid India’s rise?
- To Counter India’s Strategic Clout: As India grows economically and diplomatically, China seeks to undermine its influence in neighbouring countries. Eg: China’s trilateral with Pakistan and Bangladesh followed India’s strengthening ties with Afghanistan and regional powers.
- To Exploit Shifting Political Landscapes: China is leveraging regime changes in countries like Afghanistan and Bangladesh to draw them closer into its orbit. Eg: After the regime change in Bangladesh (2024), China intensified efforts to engage Dhaka through trilaterals.
- To Protect and Expand Economic Interests: Rising Indian assertiveness challenges China’s economic initiatives, especially BRI projects. Regional engagement helps safeguard these investments. Eg: China wants to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan to secure trade routes and regional access.
How does the China-Pakistan nexus affect India’s security strategy?
- Increased Two-Front Security Threat: The China-Pakistan partnership forces India to prepare for simultaneous threats on both western and northern borders, complicating military planning. Eg: During Operation Sindoor (2025), Pakistan used Chinese-made drones, radars, and fighter jets, requiring India to recalibrate its defence posture.
- Diplomatic Isolation Attempts: China often backs Pakistan at global platforms, shielding it from international scrutiny, especially on terror-related matters. Eg: China blocked UN resolutions targeting Pakistan-sponsored terrorists, limiting India’s global counterterrorism diplomacy.
- Regional Instability via Trilateral Engagements: China promotes trilateral meetings involving Pakistan and India’s neighbours to sideline New Delhi and create regional pressure points. Eg: The China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral aims to undermine India’s influence in South Asia and divert attention from long-term strategic goals.
What are the developments that show India countering China’s regional influence?
- Assertive Military and Diplomatic Response: India has adopted a proactive approach to respond to security threats and Chinese intrusions. Eg: In response to the Pahalgam terror attack, India launched Operation Sindoor (2025) and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, restricted port access, and took military action, signalling firm redlines.
- Strengthening Ties with Neighbours: India is engaging constructively with its neighbours to limit Chinese outreach and reinforce strategic trust. Eg: Despite past tensions, India supported Nepal’s energy cooperation with Bangladesh and re-engaged with Maldives and Sri Lanka, reinforcing regional goodwill.
- Coalition Building with Like-Minded Nations: India is enhancing cooperation with democratic allies to counterbalance China’s strategic footprint in South Asia. Eg: India has deepened ties through platforms like QUAD, and built defence and intelligence partnerships with countries like the U.S., Japan, and Australia, strengthening its regional deterrence.
Who among the neighbours are shifting towards China?
- Pakistan: Deeply aligned with China for military, economic, and diplomatic support. Eg: Over $29 billion in loans, and 80% of arms imports from China.
- Bangladesh: After the 2024 regime change, it has shown increasing economic and political engagement with China. Eg: Joined trilateral talks with China and Pakistan, indicating a shift despite India’s past close ties.
- Afghanistan: Shifted closer to China-Pakistan axis after the Taliban takeover (2021) and again after 2024 regime changes.
Way forward:
- Enhance Strategic Partnerships in South Asia: India should build stronger bilateral ties with its neighbors through infrastructure support, trade cooperation, and regional connectivity projects. Strengthening initiatives like BIMSTEC and Act East Policy can counterbalance China’s influence.
- Assert Regional Leadership Through Security and Diplomacy: India must continue to lead anti-terror cooperation, defend regional sovereignty, and set clear redlines for any hostile alignments. At the same time, it should promote inclusive regional forums that prioritize peace and mutual development.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2021] The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain.
Linkage: The article explicitly state that the US views AI technology control as a means to “preserve its lead” against adversaries like China and Russia, seeing advanced AI capabilities as a determinant of national power, similar to nuclear weapons. |
Mentor’s Comment: The United States’ decision to withdraw the AI Diffusion Framework marks a clear change in policy, but not in its overall strategy to control AI technology. The framework had treated AI like a nuclear threat, aiming to tightly control the export of AI chips, especially to China and Russia. Its removal is seen as positive news, especially for countries like India, which were not treated fairly. However, the U.S. is now trying to achieve the same goals through technology-based controls instead of direct trade rules. This shift from open policy to hidden enforcement could hurt global AI cooperation, cause strategic caution among allies, and lead to repeating the same problems in a new way.p
Today’s editorial talks about the impact of the United States’ recent decision to cancel its AI Diffusion Framework. This topic is useful for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
The United States recently cancelled its AI Diffusion Framework, a set of rules that controlled the export of AI technology. This decision is being seen as a positive move.
What is the AI Diffusion Framework?
The AI Diffusion Framework was a set of export control rules announced by the United States in early 2025. It aimed to regulate how advanced AI technology, such as AI chips and model weights, could be shared or sold to other countries.
What were the key goals of the U.S. AI Diffusion Framework?
- Restrict Access to Strategic Competitors: The framework aimed to block countries like China and Russia from obtaining advanced AI chips and model weightsto prevent them from enhancing their military and surveillance capabilities through powerful AI systems.
- Preserve U.S. Technological Leadership: By limiting the global spread of high-performance computing resources, the U.S. sought to maintain its edge in AI development and ensure that cutting-edge innovations remained concentrated within the U.S. and trusted allies.
- Create a Structured Export Control System: It introduced a clear set of rules combining export controls and licensing, aiming to simplify regulatory procedures and standardize how AI-related technology was shared or restricted across countries.
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Why was the U.S. AI Diffusion Framework seen as counterproductive?
- Damaged trust among allies and partners: The broad restrictions impacted both rivals and friendly countries, causing diplomatic friction. Some nations that were not classified as preferred allies began investing in independent AI ecosystems to avoid overdependence on the U.S.
- Accelerated innovation in restricted regions: By limiting access to advanced AI chips, the framework pushed affected countries to create more efficient algorithms that required less computing power. This led to the development of competitive AI models that challenged the dominance of those built with high-end hardware.
Why is the framework’s withdrawal seen as beneficial for countries like India?
- Improved Access to AI Hardware and Resources: With the framework withdrawn, countries like India now face fewer barriers in acquiring high-performance AI chips and related technologies. Eg: Indian startups and research institutions can more easily procure advanced GPUs necessary for developing large AI models.
- Support for Strategic and Technological Autonomy: The removal of restrictions allows India to pursue its own AI development agenda without being constrained by another country’s policy. Eg: India can strengthen initiatives like the IndiaAI Mission and the Semiconductor Mission to build domestic capabilities.
- Enhanced Global Collaboration Opportunities: The rollback encourages deeper cooperation between India and other nations, including the U.S., in AI research and innovation. Eg: Indian firms may now engage in joint ventures or technology partnerships with U.S. companies without facing restrictive export barriers.
How do new U.S. AI chip controls reflect a continuation of earlier strategies?
- Ongoing Restriction on Adversaries: The U.S. continues to block access to advanced AI chips for countries like China by expanding export controls and adding more firms to the Entity List, just as the earlier framework aimed to do.
- Shift from Trade to Technological Enforcement: Instead of broad trade bans, the new approach focuses on hardware-level restrictions, such as embedding features in chips to monitor or limit usage, reflecting the same strategic intent in a new form.
- Sustained Focus on Controlling AI Diffusion: The introduction of location tracking mandates and usage controls in AI chips shows the U.S. is still trying to control how and where AI technology spreads, continuing the goals of limiting proliferation and maintaining dominance.
What are the global implications of U.S. AI export controls on innovation and technological sovereignty?
- Push for Technological Self-Reliance: Countries affected by the controls are investing in domestic AI ecosystems and indigenous chip manufacturing to reduce dependence on U.S. technology, leading to the rise of multiple, parallel innovation hubs around the world.
- Erosion of Trust and Collaboration: Export restrictions create privacy concerns, surveillance risks, and a sense of strategic vulnerability, prompting both allies and adversaries to hedge against U.S. influence, thereby weakening global scientific cooperation and technological integration.
What are the steps taken by the Indian government in AI chips?
- IndiaAI Mission (2024): A ₹10,000 crore initiative focused on developing compute infrastructure, datasets, and talent.
- Semiconductor Mission (ISM): Includes financial incentives and infrastructure support for AI chip manufacturing and design.
- Collaborations with the private sector: Partnerships with companies like Micron, AMD, and Tata Group to build chip fabs and R&D centres in India.
- Supercomputing initiatives: Under PARAM and National Supercomputing Mission, India is developing indigenous high-performance compute for AI workloads.
- IndiaAI compute platform: Aimed at giving startups and researchers access to high-end GPU clusters.
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Way forward:
- Promote Inclusive and Transparent AI Governance: The U.S. and other major powers should work through multilateral platforms to create balanced AI export norms that protect security interests without stifling global innovation or alienating partners.
- Strengthen Global AI Collaboration Frameworks: Countries like India should advocate for open-access research, joint AI development programs, and capacity-building initiatives to ensure equitable access to AI technology and reduce dependency on a single ecosystem.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2022] How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?
Linkage: This question highlights a new grouping involving Israel and the USA, both central to the West Asia conflict described as the origin point for the “Axis of Upheaval”. The formation and impact of such new strategic groupings, particularly in the context of the Middle East, are directly relevant to the evolving power dynamics and strategic realignments that define the concept of the “Axis of Upheaval.” |
Mentor’s Comment: The recent U.S.-Israel attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and the weak ceasefire that followed have shown that today’s global alliances, often compared to Cold War groups, are not very strong or united. Even though Iran has close economic and political ties with Russia and China, neither country gave any military support. This clearly shows the limits of strategic partnerships when there is a real military threat. The so-called ‘Axis of Upheaval’ made up of Iran, Russia, and China is really just a loose group, without any formal military treaties like those in Western alliances such as NATO. This crisis breaks the idea of a bipolar world and highlights the unequal power dynamics in today’s global politics.
Today’s editorial discusses global power alliances in the context of the Israel-Iran war. This topic is helpful for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
The recent U.S.-Israel attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, followed by a weak ceasefire, has shown that today’s global alliances, often compared to Cold War blocs, are not as strong or united as they appear.
What are the new global power blocs?
New global power blocs refer to emerging alliances among countries like China, Russia, and Iran that seek to challenge the dominance of the Western-led global order. These blocs focus on economic cooperation, strategic alignment, and institutional alternatives such as BRICS and SCO, but lack formal military treaties like NATO. |
Why has the Israel-Iran conflict weakened the idea of new global power blocs?
- Lack of Military Support: Despite Iran’s close ties with Russia and China, neither provided military assistance during the conflict. Eg: Russia, engaged in the Ukraine war, offered only diplomatic mediation, while China limited itself to verbal condemnation.
- Absence of Binding Alliances: The so-called ‘Axis of Upheaval’ lacks formal military treaties that require collective defense. Eg: Iran’s strategic partnerships with Russia (2025) and China (2021) are primarily economic, not military.
- Diverging Strategic Interests: Russia and China used the conflict to advance their own interests, letting the U.S. get entangled in West Asia. Eg: The U.S. bombing of Iran may distract American focus from the Indo-Pacific and Europe, which suits Beijing and Moscow.
What are the strategic limits of Iran’s ties with Russia and China?
- No Binding Military Pact: Iran’s ties with Russia and China are largely economic and diplomatic, with no formal military alliance or commitment to joint defense.
- Conflicting Strategic Priorities: Russia is deeply engaged in the Ukraine war, and China is focused on maintaining its economic growth and regional stability, limiting their readiness to back Iran militarily. Eg: Russia has turned to North Korea for troops, showing its own resource constraints.
- Unequal Benefits: Iran is heavily dependent on these relationships, while Russia and China gain economic and geopolitical advantages without taking on direct strategic risks. For instance, China secures discounted Iranian oil under sanctions, while offering limited concrete support in return.
How have Russia and China responded to Iran’s crisis post-ceasefire?
- Diplomatic Support without Military Action: Russia offered to mediate the conflict through a call by President Putin, but this was ignored by the U.S., and no military support was extended.
Putin’s involvement reflected symbolic backing, not a commitment to defend Iran.
- Condemnation of Israeli Actions: China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticised Israeli airstrikes as violations of international law, showing support through official statements while avoiding direct intervention. This response aimed to maintain China’s global diplomatic posture without escalating tensions.
- Strategic Caution for Self-Interest: Both countries used the conflict to their advantage by letting the U.S. get entangled in West Asia, potentially weakening its focus on the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine. The crisis served to advance Beijing and Moscow’s strategic space without direct involvement.
Where does Iran stand diplomatically and militarily after the recent conflict?
- Diplomatic Isolation and Limited Support: Despite having strategic partnerships with Russia and China, Iran received only verbal and symbolic backing, with no concrete military or institutional support.
Its regional alliances failed to activate, reflecting a gap between rhetoric and action.
- Military Weakening and Proxy Setback: Iran suffered a decapitation of leadership and capacity, while its key proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthiswere unable to respond effectively.
This has weakened Iran’s role as a regional power and exposed its dependence on non-state actors.
Way forward:
- Formalize Strategic Partnerships: Iran, Russia, and China should work toward institutionalising their ties through defense cooperation frameworks, joint military exercises, and security dialogues to build trust and operational coordination.
- Align Long-term Strategic Interests: The three nations need to develop a shared geopolitical vision that goes beyond transactional ties, ensuring mutual support mechanisms during crises while balancing individual regional priorities.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?
Linkage: “Operation Midnight Hammer: B-2 Bombers Strike Iran’s Nuclear Facilities,” details a significant event where the “U.S. military carried out precision strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities, mainly Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan”. This PYQ is highly relevant as it requires an analysis of the broader implications for India arising from such direct military actions and controversies involving the US and Iran’s nuclear capabilities, which are central to the “Operation Midnight Hammer” narrative. |
Mentor’s Comment: On June 21, 2025, the U.S. officially entered the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict by launching “Operation Midnight Hammer”, a precision strike on Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. What makes this operation historic is the first-ever operational use of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), dropped by B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. Fordow, an ultra-hardened site buried deep within a mountain, had long been considered impregnable — even to Israeli firepower. This high-stakes attack involving stealth bombers, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and elaborate deception tactics showcases the evolving nature of strategic warfare, stealth technology, and nuclear deterrence dynamics, with significant implications for global security and geopolitics.
Today’s editorial discusses the effects of the recent U.S.A. Operation Midnight Hammer: B-2 Bombers Strike Iran’s Nuclear Facilities. This topic is important for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
Recently, the U.S. joined the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran by launching “Operation Midnight Hammer”, a targeted military strike on Iran’s main nuclear sites located at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
What is the B-2 Stealth Bomber?
The B-2 Stealth Bomber, also known as the B-2 Spirit, is an advanced long-range, heavy bomber used by the United States Air Force. |
What are the geopolitical impacts of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites?
- Undermining diplomatic efforts: The attack weakens ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, especially efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the U.S. exited in 2018.
- Message of deterrence and alliance assurance: The operation signals U.S. commitment to Israel’s security and aims to deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, reaffirming strategic dominance in West Asia and setting a precedent like the 1981 Israeli strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor.
How do technologies like B-2 bombers and bunker-busters shape modern warfare?
- Enhanced penetration of fortified targets: Bunker-buster bombs like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator can destroy deeply buried nuclear facilities, such as Iran’s Fordow site, which is located inside a mountain.
- Stealth and survivability in hostile environments: The B-2 Spirit bomber, with its low radar signature and long-range capabilities, allows undetected strikes deep into enemy territory, demonstrated during Operation Midnight Hammerover Iran.
- Precision and reduced collateral damage: The use of GPS-guided munitions enables targeted destruction of critical infrastructure while minimizing civilian harm. The Tomahawk cruise missiles used alongside the B-2s in the Iran strike are an example.
What does U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict indicate about its West Asia strategy?
- Reinforcement of strategic alliances: The U.S. action shows its continued military and political support for Israel, especially after Israel’s initial strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. This underscores a long-standing alliance.
- Deterrence against nuclear proliferation: By targeting Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, the U.S. aims to send a strong message against the development of nuclear weapons by adversarial states in the region.
- Projection of power and dominance: The deployment of B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles illustrates America’s intent to maintain military superiority and influence over regional conflicts, ensuring its leadership role in West Asia’s security architecture.
What challenges arise in attacking underground nuclear sites like Fordow?
- Depth and Fortification: The Fordow nuclear site is buried 80–90 meters underground and shielded by reinforced concrete, making it resilient to conventional strikes. Even the GBU-57 bunker-busters caused only partial damage, revealing the limits of aerial assaults.
- Operational Complexity: Missions to strike such sites need advanced platforms like the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, supported by decoy tactics, mid-air refuelling, and long-duration flights. The limited number of B-2s and their high maintenance make repeated missions challenging.
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Does India have B-2 bomber capability?
- Lack of Stealth Bomber Technology: India does not possess any stealth bombers like the U.S. B-2 Spirit, which is capable of penetrating heavily fortified targets with low radar visibility. The B-2 is a unique platform operated exclusively by the United States.
- Current Indian Bomber Fleet: India relies on multirole fighter jets such as the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Mirage-2000 for strike missions. These aircraft are effective but lack deep-strike stealth capabilities and the payload capacity of strategic bombers.E.g. The Sukhoi Su-30MKI can carry cruise missiles like BrahMos, but not bunker-busters like the GBU-57.
- Strategic Focus and Alternatives: Instead of stealth bombers, India invests in missile-based deterrents such as the Agni series (ballistic missiles) and long-range cruise missiles. These provide strategic strike capability without the need for a dedicated stealth bomber. E.g. The Nirbhay cruise missile offers precision strike capability with a range of 1000+ km.
What can India do? (Way forward)
- Invest in Indigenous Stealth and Deep-Strike Platforms: India can accelerate development of indigenous stealth bombers or long-range unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) under future programs like AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) to enable penetration of heavily defended targets.
- Enhance Precision Missile and Bunker-Buster Arsenal: India can develop or acquire heavy bunker-busting munitions and integrate them with existing platforms like the Su-30MKI or future drones, while also upgrading satellite-guided targeting systems for deeper and more accurate strikes.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?
Linkage: This question directly addresses a central component of the “U.S.-West Asia calculus”—the US-Iran dynamic. The article explicitly states that the U.S. conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear installations and that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) was focused on the situation in West Asia and how to deter Iran with Pakistan’s support. |
Mentor’s Comment: On June 22, U.S. President Donald Trump launched The USA recently carried out military attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could influence the future of West Asia for a long time. on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could shape the future of West Asia for years. This decision may trigger a long-term conflict between the U.S. and Iran, but it also has major links to South Asia. Just days before the strikes, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir had an unusual private lunch with President Trump at the White House—something rare for anyone who isn’t a head of state. This points to deeper strategic changes. At the same time, Pakistan is facing rising sectarian tensions, serious economic troubles, and higher defense spending. Its sudden border closure with Iran and growing support from the U.S. raise important questions about Pakistan’s new role in the Iran-Israel conflict and what it could mean inside the country.
Today’s editorial looks at how the USA’s military strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites and Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir’s rare private lunch with President Trump could affect international relations. This is useful for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Why in the News?
The USA recently carried out military attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could influence the future of West Asia for a long time.
What could be the impact of a U.S. strike on Iran have on West Asia and the subcontinent?
- Escalation of Conflict: The strike may trigger a prolonged confrontation between Iran and Western allies, increasing instability in West Asia. Eg: Past U.S. interventions in Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011) resulted in regime change but long-term chaosand extremist expansion.
- Realignment of Regional Powers: Countries like Pakistan may shift alliances to support U.S. actions, potentially isolating Iran and affecting critical land-based trade routes. Eg: Pakistan closed its land border with Iran in June 2025, limiting Iran’s trade access to South Asia.
- Security Tensions: U.S. engagement with Pakistan’s military leadership amid regional conflict could embolden Pakistan strategically, raising concerns for India.
Why is General Munir’s meeting with Trump strategically significant?
- Geopolitical Signalling to India and Iran: The timing and optics of the meeting send a message to both India and Iran about Pakistan’s rising strategic relevance in U.S. calculations. Eg: Coinciding with Pakistan closing borders with Iran and India-Pak tensions easing, the visit reshapes regional power equations.
How do Pakistan-Iran ties affect regional dynamics?
- Border Tensions and Proxy Conflicts: Pakistan and Iran share a volatile border in Balochistan, where militant groups operate across both sides, causing frequent skirmishes. Eg: In early 2024, both countries exchanged missile strikes after attacks on Iranian security forces allegedly by groups based in Pakistan.
- Geopolitical Rivalry in Afghanistan: Both countries compete for influence in Afghanistan, affecting regional alliances and the balance of power in Central Asia. Eg: Iran backs Shia groups, while Pakistan supports Sunni factions, intensifying sectarian divides and shaping Afghanistan’s internal politics.
- Strategic Role in U.S.-Iran Tensions: Pakistan could play a critical role in isolating Iran, especially during a U.S.-Iran conflict, by shutting trade routes and cooperating with U.S. military interests. Eg: On June 15, 2025, Pakistan closed its border with Iran, coinciding with the Pakistani Army Chief’s visit to Washington, signaling alignment with U.S. strategy.
Where does Pakistan stand economically amid rising defence spending?
- High Debt Burden : Interest payments consume 74% of revenue, leaving little for other public services. Eg: In FY2025‑26, PKR (Pakistan’s revenue) 8.207 trillion was allocated to interest, out of PKR 11.07 trillion in total revenue.
- Defense Budget Surge at Development’s Expense: Despite an overall cut in spending, defense gets a 17% increase, while developmental funds are halved. Eg: Defense allocation in FY2025‑26 is PKR 3.29 trillion, whereas development spending dropped to PKR 1 trillion.
- Heavy Reliance on Bailouts: Pakistan depends on IMF packages and debt rollovers to meet fiscal commitments amid shrinking revenues. Eg: After its 25th IMF bailout, Pakistan secured PKR 1.4 billion in climate resilience funds, along with PKR 16 billion in loan rollovers.
What are the steps taken by the Indian government?
- Strategic Engagement with Iran and Gulf Nations: India continues to balance its ties with Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to safeguard energy security and trade interests. Eg: India is actively involved in developing the Chabahar Port in Iran, enhancing access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. At the same time, India is deepening partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including in defence and energy sectors.
- Heightened Border Surveillance: The Indian government has directed increased surveillance and intelligence gathering along the western borders, especially in Jammu & Kashmir, to counter any proxy threats or destabilisation efforts. Eg: Deployment of UAVs and satellite imaging systems has been intensified across vulnerable stretches, and border infrastructure under the Vibrant Villages Programme is being upgraded.
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What should India do? (Way forward)
- Strengthen Strategic Autonomy in West Asia: India must maintain balanced relations with both Iran and the U.S., ensuring that its energy security and regional interests are safeguarded. Eg: Continue investing in Chabahar Port, a strategic counter to China-backed Gwadar, while also deepening ties with the Gulf monarchies for energy and investment.
- Enhance Intelligence and Military Vigilance along Western Borders: With increasing Pakistan-U.S. military cooperation and Iran-Pakistan tensions, India must stay alert to any spillover effects. Eg: Boost surveillance in Jammu & Kashmir, especially given General Munir’s renewed rhetoric on Kashmir and increased Pakistani defense spending.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2019] The economy is in a state of crisis due to global inflation. Critically examine whether this crisis and high inflation have left the Indian economy in good shape? Give reasons in support of your arguments.
Linkage: This PYQ directly mentions a specific global economic “trouble” – global inflation – and asks about its impact on the Indian economy. This article talks about the “monetary policy should continue to remain accommodative” and that “inflation currently under control and projected to be lower” can help “propel growth,” indicating that managing inflation is a key part of steering the economy amidst global challenges. |
Mentor’s Comment: The global trade order is witnessing a seismic shift amid renewed trade wars, evolving tariff regimes, and accelerating bilateral negotiations. In this flux, India’s exports of nearly one-fifth of its merchandise to the U.S., finds itself vulnerable, especially in sectors dominated by MSMEs like apparel, gems, and electronics. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. reciprocal tariffs, potential dumping threats, and the instability in trade negotiations pose a structural challenge. However, India also faces a rare geopolitical opportunity—to integrate into the reconfigured global supply chains, reduce dependency on traditional partners, and assert itself as a global manufacturing and export hub.
Today’s editorial analyses the impact of new trade rules and ongoing political tensions between countries. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Indian Economy) in the mains Paper.
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Why in the News?
The global economy is changing in a big way, mainly due to new trade rules and ongoing political tensions between countries.
Why are current global trade dynamics creating uncertainty for Indian exporters?
- Rise in protectionism and trade wars: Many countries are reviewing tariffs and adopting protectionist measures. This creates unpredictability in global trade flows, making it harder for Indian exporters to plan pricing and market strategies. Eg: The U.S. imposing or revising tariffs on Indian goods affects sectors like garments and pharmaceuticals.
- Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the U.S.-China trade war or the Russia-Ukraine war are disrupting supply chains and altering trade alliances, impacting Indian exporters’ access to global markets and increasing costs. Eg: Indian exporters face delays or higher freight costs due to changes in trade routes.
- Uncertain tariff regimes: Indian exporters face difficulty in decision-making due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies and lack of clarity on future duty structures, impacting pricing and margins. Eg: Sectors such as auto components and gems & jewellery, heavily reliant on the U.S., face profitability issues.
- Losing competitive advantage: Competing countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam may benefit from early trade deals with the U.S., while India’s relative tariff advantage remains unclear. Eg: Indian textile exports could become costlier compared to Bangladesh’s duty-free access.
- Planning uncertainty: Exporters hesitate to invest or plan for the long term in the absence of stable trade rules and policies. This impacts capacity expansion and export contracts, particularly for MSMEs. Eg: Indian MSMEs may cancel new orders or delay shipments due to lack of tariff clarity.
What challenges do Indian MSMEs face due to potential U.S. tariff changes?
- Profit Margin Erosion: Increased U.S. tariffs make Indian goods costlier, reducing profit margins for MSMEs and making their exports uncompetitive. Eg: A carpet-exporting MSME in Uttar Pradesh may struggle to maintain orders if buyers shift to cheaper alternatives from Bangladesh.
- Order Uncertainty and Planning Delays: Fluctuating tariff policies create hesitation among U.S. buyers, affecting long-term contracts and production planning for small businesses. Eg: An MSME manufacturing leather goods may face cancelled or delayed orders due to uncertainty over final landed prices.
- Limited Ability to Absorb Costs: Unlike large firms, MSMEs lack the financial cushion to absorb increased costs from tariffs, logistics, or compliance. Eg: A small pharmaceutical exporter may not afford sudden freight hikes or additional duties, making exports unviable.
How can bilateral and free trade agreements help India navigate global trade disruptions?
- Ensure Preferential Market Access: FTAs allow Indian exporters to access foreign markets with lower or zero tariffs, making their goods more competitiveeven amid global disruptions. Eg: An FTA with the UK can benefit Indian apparel exporters by reducing tariff barriers, boosting exports.
- Diversify Export Destinations: Bilateral trade deals reduce dependency on a single market like the U.S., helping India shift exports to Europe, Australia, or ASEAN during crises. Eg: The India-EU FTA under negotiation could open up multiple markets for Indian electronics and auto components.
- Address Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): FTAs help resolve issues like customs delays, quality standards, or licensing hurdles, ensuring smooth trade flowduring uncertain times. Eg: A mutual recognition agreement (MRA) under a BTA with the U.S. could simplify pharmaceutical exports by accepting Indian drug certifications.
What policies can boost India’s economic resilience?
- Strengthening Public Capital Expenditure: Increased government spending on infrastructure boosts domestic demand, generates employment, and crowds in private investment during global slowdowns. Eg: The PM Gati Shakti scheme accelerates infrastructure development, improving logistics and economic stability.
- Expanding Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes: Enhancing PLI coverage to include more sectors like IoT devices or battery raw materials promotes domestic manufacturing, attracts FDI, and reduces import dependency. Eg: PLI in electronics has boosted mobile phone exports and created supply chain resilience.
- Maintaining Accommodative Monetary Policy: Ensuring low interest rates and easy liquidity through monetary support helps businesses manage costs and stimulate investment during global headwinds. Eg: RBI’s repo rate cuts post-COVID helped MSMEs access cheaper credit, aiding recovery.
Why should India focus on foreign investment and PLI expansion?
- Diversify Global Supply Chains: Global companies are looking to reduce dependency on China and Southeast Asia. India can attract them by offering stable policies and incentives. Eg: Apple has shifted part of its iPhone manufacturing to India due to the PLI scheme and policy support.
- Boost Manufacturing and Employment: Expanding PLI coverage to sectors like wearables, batteries, and semiconductors can enhance local production, reduce imports, and generate jobs. Eg: The PLI for electronics has helped create thousands of direct jobs and increased exports.
- Strengthen Export Competitiveness: Foreign investments bring technology transfer, better quality standards, and improved productivity, which are crucial for export growth. Eg: Investments in the automobile and pharma sectors under PLI have enhanced India’s global competitiveness.
Way forward:
- Accelerate FTA Negotiations and Ensure Tariff Stability: India should fast-track bilateral and multilateral trade agreements (e.g., with the EU, Australia) to ensure stable market access and reduce uncertainty for exporters.
- Expand and Streamline PLI Schemes: Broaden the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes to include high-potential sectors (e.g., semiconductors, IoT), and simplify procedures to attract more foreign investment and boost domestic manufacturing.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2019] What makes Indian society unique in sustaining its culture? Discuss.
Linkage: The article emphasizes India’s “deep cultural heritage” and states that India is “uniquely positioned to lead” in the creative economy, reaffirming a “shared creative spirit” with the UK. This question probes the underlying strengths and uniqueness of Indian culture that enable such leadership and sustained collaboration. |
Mentor’s Comment: The landmark moment for India-UK ties, not only with the ratification of the long-awaited Free Trade Agreement but more so with the signing of the Programme of Cultural Cooperation (POCC) between both nations. This represents a significant cultural pivot and recognizes creative industries as drivers of economic growth, inclusion, and diplomacy. It also places India, with its deep heritage and burgeoning digital skills, in a leadership role within the global creative economy — a sector projected to constitute 10% of global GDP by 2030. The POCC opens up a digital-cultural corridor between India and the UK, at a time when cross-border cultural diplomacy is becoming central to international relations.
Today’s editorial analyses the Free Trade Agreement between the UK and India. This content would help in GS Paper I (Indian Society), GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III ( Indian Economy) in the mains Paper.
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Why in the News?
In May 2024, India and the United Kingdom approved their long-awaited Free Trade Agreement, marking a major step forward in their economic relationship.
What is the Programme of Cultural Cooperation (POCC)?
- POCC is a cultural agreement signed on May 2 between U.K. Secretary of State for Culture Lisa Nandy and India’s Minister for Culture Gajendra Singh Shekhawat.
- It aims to strengthen India-U.K. cultural ties and enhance cooperation across the creative economy. It represents a shared commitment to cross-cultural collaboration and economic growth.
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What are its main focus areas?
- Digital Technologies for Culture: Focuses on using emerging tools like AI, AR/VR, and digital platforms to preserve and share cultural experiences. Eg: Creating virtual museum tours or AI-powered cultural archives.
- Exhibitions and Collections: Promotes collaboration between museums and institutions to share art, history, and heritage collections. Eg: Joint exhibitions by the British Museum and Indian cultural institutions.
- Performances and Events: Encourages cultural exchanges through music, dance, theatre, and film festivals. Eg: Participation of Indian artists in the Serendipity Arts Festival – Birmingham chapter.
- Cultural Property: Aims to protect and restore heritage artifacts and traditions, including tackling illicit trafficking. Eg: UNESCO–Royal Enfield’s Himalayan Knot project conserving textile traditions.
- Sustainability: Supports environmentally responsible practices in cultural projects and promotes green initiatives in the arts. Eg: Sustainable exhibition design and eco-friendly performances during India-UK cultural collaborations.
What is the creative economy?
The creative economy includes sectors such as art, music, design, film, architecture, publishing, fashion, advertising, digital media, software, and crafts—all of which rely on individual creativity, skill, and talent. Eg: Bollywood contributes to both India’s cultural identity and economy through movies, music, and dance. |
Why is the creative economy important for both India and the U.K.?
- Drives Economic Growth: The creative economy is projected to contribute 10% of global GDP by 2030. Eg: India’s creative sector is already worth $35 billion, and is rapidly expanding with global collaborations.
- Generates Employment: It is a major employment multiplier, especially in sectors like film, design, digital content, and heritage arts. Eg: In India, it employs 8% of the workforce, second only to agriculture.
- Boosts Cross-Cultural Collaboration: Fosters partnerships and mutual understanding between nations through shared cultural experiences. Eg: The POCC agreement strengthens UK-India ties via co-created exhibitions and performances.
- Supports Innovation through Technology: Integrates AI, AR/VR, and digital platforms into creative practices, making the sector dynamic and future-ready. Eg: The British Council’s Arts and Technologies report calls for embedding digital tools in India’s creative education.
- Promotes Inclusive Development: Engages non-metro regions and artisan communities, helping balance regional inequalities. Eg: Creative hubs in Badgam (J&K) and Tiruppur (TN) show the power of decentralised cultural growth.
How are new technologies shaping the creative sector?
- Enhancing Cultural Experiences through AR/VR: Augmented and virtual reality bring immersive experiences to museums, exhibitions, and performances. Eg: Museums in the U.K. use VR to recreate historical events, allowing virtual tours and deeper engagement.
- Expanding Global Reach via Digital Platforms: Digital platforms enable creators to reach global audiences instantly. Eg: Indian artists now showcase their work on OTT platforms and global streaming services.
- Boosting Innovation in Storytelling with AI: Artificial Intelligence helps generate content, animation, music, and design, improving efficiency and creativity. Eg: AI tools are used in film editing and scriptwriting to speed up production.
- Creating New Art Forms and Jobs: Tech-based sectors like gaming, digital art, and interactive media are emerging as new creative industries. Eg: India’s gaming sector, driven by youth and mobile access, is becoming a major employer in digital creativity.
- Transforming Creative Education: New technologies are integrated into curricula to train the next generation of artists and designers. Eg: The British Council’s report urges India to include tech-based tools in creative education programs.
Way forward:
- Promote Education & Skill Development: Invest in creative education, vocational training, and digital literacy to build a future-ready workforce equipped for sectors like design, animation, gaming, and digital content.
Eg: Setting up creative arts institutes and expanding courses in AR/VR, AI, and multimedia design.
- Strengthen International Collaboration & Policy Support: Foster cross-border partnerships and provide policy incentives for creative industries to innovate, grow, and access global markets. Eg: Agreements like the India–U.K. Programme of Cultural Cooperation (POCC) help promote cultural exchangeand creative trade.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2020] What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
Linkage: The question regarding Indo-US and Indo-Russian defense deals is relevant because India’s propulsion gap directly influences its choices and reliance on these foreign defense partners for critical military hardware like engines. Addressing the propulsion gap would reduce this dependency, enabling India to better assert its strategic autonomy and contribute to regional stability (such as in the Indo-Pacific) without being constrained by external supply chain pressures or technology transfer limitations from other nations. |
Mentor’s Comment: India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project is moving ahead quickly and is seen as a big step forward for the country’s aerospace sector. However, the excitement is being held back by a long-standing reliance on foreign engines. This same problem had earlier affected the HF-24 Marut and is now also troubling the LCA and AMCA fighter jet programs. Even after years of work and investment — including the unsuccessful Kaveri engine project and delays in getting engines from GE — India still depends heavily on other countries for engine technology. This not only affects military preparedness but also raises serious concerns about India’s ability to act independently in defence matters.
Today’s editorial analyses the development of Indian fighter aircraft engines. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Science & Technology) in the mains Paper.
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Why in the News?
Recently, there is growing excitement around India’s AMCA stealth fighter, seen as a major aerospace milestone. However, concerns remain due to a long-standing reliance on imported engines since the HF-24 Marut.
Why has India failed to develop its own jet engine?
- Technological Challenges in Engine Design: Jet engines require high thrust-to-weight ratios, thermal stability, and advanced metallurgy, which India has struggled to achieve. Eg: The Kaveri GTX-35VS engine, under development since 1989 by DRDO-GTRE, failed to meet performance benchmarks in thrust and thermal management even after 3,000 hours of testing.
- Lack of Core Materials and Manufacturing Capability: India lacks access to critical technologies like single-crystal turbine blades, thermal barrier coatings, and advanced cooling systems, essential for high-performance engines. Eg: Negotiations with GE for F414 engine hit a roadblock because GE refused full transfer of these core technologies despite India’s demand.
- Fragmented and Short-Term Funding: Defence R&D funding in India is project-specific and often lacks a long-term strategic vision, affecting continuity and innovation in complex projects. Eg: Despite spending over ₹2,032 crore on the Kaveri project over 35 years, no operational engine was produced due to inconsistent support and shifting goals.
- Over-Reliance on Foreign Engines: Dependence on foreign suppliers has created a complacency in indigenous R&D, slowing domestic capability-building. Eg: India continues to rely on GE F404 and F414 engines for its LCA Tejas variants, instead of pursuing an urgent push for domestic alternatives.
- Institutional Inertia and Missed International Collaborations: Bureaucratic rigidity and institutional pride have caused India to reject key collaborative opportunities for engine co-development. Eg: A proposed joint project with Safran (France) for developing an engine for AMCA and Tejas MkII was reportedly declined by DRDO.
What is HF-24 Marut?
The HF-24 Marut (meaning “Spirit of the Tempest”) was India’s first indigenously designed and built fighter jet, developed in the 1950s and 1960s by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). |
What caused the HF-24 Marut’s underperformance?
- Underpowered Engine: The Marut was equipped with British Bristol Siddeley Orpheus 703 turbojets, which lacked the thrust needed for supersonic performance. Eg: Designer Kurt Tank had envisioned a more powerful engine, but it never materialised, severely restricting the aircraft’s speed and payload capabilities.
- Failure to Acquire Suitable Alternatives: Despite multiple attempts, India could not procure or co-develop a more suitable engine to enhance the Marut’s performance. Eg: Efforts to source a better engine from Egypt and Germany failed, leaving the Marut stuck with the underpowered Orpheus units.
- Operational Limitations in Combat: The aircraft performed well in ground-attack roles, such as in the 1971 war, but its overall combat effectivenesswas limited by its propulsion shortfall. Eg: Indian Air Force veterans cited that the engine limitation was the Marut’s Achilles’ heel, preventing it from evolving into a full-spectrum fighter.
How does engine import dependency impact India’s defence?
- Delays in Defence Production and Induction: Dependency on foreign engines leads to project delays when there are supply chain issues or export restrictions. Eg: Delivery of 99 General Electric F404 engines for the LCA Mk1A was delayed by 13 months, pushing back aircraft induction timelines.
- Limited Operational and Strategic Autonomy: India becomes vulnerable to geopolitical pressures and foreign policy decisions of engine-supplying nations. Eg: U.S. reluctance to share core technologies like single-crystal turbine blades restricts India’s ability to upgrade or export its fighter aircraft.
- Constraints on Defence Exports: Exporting platforms equipped with foreign engines requires third-party approvals, limiting India’s potential in global defence markets. Eg: India’s ability to export Tejas is restricted by U.S. controls on the GE F404 engine, limiting defence diplomacy options.
What are the steps taken by the Indian Government?
- Strategic Collaborations for Technology Transfer: India has initiated joint ventures and international collaborations to acquire advanced propulsion technology. Eg: During PM Modi’s 2023 U.S. visit, HAL signed a deal with General Electric to co-produce GE F414 enginesin India for the LCA Mk2 and AMCA programs.
- Revival of Indigenous Engine Projects: The government has revived and restructured efforts to develop indigenous jet engines under DRDO’s GTRE. Eg: The Kaveri engine project was decoupled from the LCA program and is being explored for use in UAVs and future aircraft with potential foreign assistance.
- Promotion of Atmanirbhar Bharat in Defence: The Defence Ministry has prioritized self-reliance in critical technologies, including aero-engines, under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative. Eg: Several defence PSUs and private players have been incentivized to develop components and sub-systemsfor aerospace platforms under Make in India schemes.
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What must India do to achieve propulsion self-reliance? (Way forward)
- Establish Strategic Global Partnerships for Technology Transfer: India must engage in joint ventures with trusted international engine manufacturers to acquire critical technologies like single-crystal turbine blades and thermal barrier coatings. Eg: The proposed GE-HAL deal to manufacture the F414 engines in India should ensure full transfer of know-how to avoid long-term dependency.
- Develop an Integrated Indigenous R&D Ecosystem: India needs to create a cohesive framework connecting DRDO, GTRE, academia, and private industry to focus on advanced propulsion R&D with long-term investment. Eg: Encouraging private sector participation in defence through the Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX)platform can accelerate jet engine innovation.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?
Linkage: This question explicitly links “escalating tensions between Iran and Israel” to oil prices “spiralling upwards” due to fears of “potential disruption in oil supplies globally”. The article talks about the Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz as the “primary reason” for rising prices, as this chokepoint is crucial for transporting a significant portion of global petroleum liquids and oil supply from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. |
Mentor’s Comment: Oil prices have jumped sharply due to rising tensions between Iran and Israel, mainly because of fears that the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil supply — could be blocked. Brent crude prices rose by 9%, showing how sensitive global markets are to such conflicts. Although prices eased slightly after news of diplomatic talks through Gulf countries, the threat of disruption still remains. For India, which buys over 80% of its oil from abroad, this is a serious concern. It affects not just fuel availability, but also inflation, economic stability, and business investments, making it a major challenge for India’s economy.
Today’s editorial analyses the impact of tensions between Iran and Israel on crude oil prices. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Indian Economy) in the mains Paper.
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Why in the News?
Recently, oil prices have risen a lot because of increasing tension between Iran and Israel, mainly due to worries that the Strait of Hormuz — a major route for global oil transport — might be closed.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz vital for global oil trade?
- Major Oil Transit Chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, through which nearly 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil passed in 2024 — about one-fifth of global consumption. Eg: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the strait handled the world’s largest oil tankers transporting oil from Gulf nations.
- Exports from Key Producers: It serves as the primary export route for major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Eg: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about one-fourth of the global oil supply exits the Gulf through this strait.
- Dependency of Asian Markets: A significant portion of oil transiting the Strait goes to Asian economies, which are heavily dependent on West Asian oil. Eg: In 2024, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported via the Strait was destined for countries like India, China, Japan, etc.
What are the economic implications of the Israel-Iran conflict on India’s growth and inflation?
- Rising Crude Oil Prices Increases Import Costs: A spike in global oil prices due to the conflict raises India’s import bill, as the country imports over 80% of its crude oil needs. Eg: Brent crude surged to $78.50/barrel in June 2024 amid Israel-Iran tensions, directly increasing India’s energy costs and widening the current account deficit.
- Pressure on Inflation and Input Costs: Higher oil prices translate into increased transportation and production costs, leading to inflationary pressure on goods and services. Eg: Experts like Amit Kumar of Grant Thornton noted that global price shocks could affect India Inc’s profitability and raise inflation even though India doesn’t import oil directly from Iran.
- Threat to GDP Growth Projections: Prolonged geopolitical instability may lead to delayed private investments and lower industrial output, affecting economic growth. Eg: ICRA’s Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, warned that a sustained oil price rise could prompt a downward revision of India’s 6.2% GDP growth forecast for FY25.
How has India reduced its vulnerability to oil price shocks amid West Asian tensions?
- Diversification of Crude Oil Import Sources: India has expanded its import basket beyond traditional Gulf suppliers to include countries like the U.S., Russia, and Latin American nations. Eg: Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India is “comfortably placed” due to diversified crude sourcing, reducing overdependence on West Asia.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India has built strategic oil reserves to buffer against short-term supply disruptions or price spikes. Eg: The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL) manages reserves that can support 9–10 days of crude demand, offering resilience during crises.
- Promoting Renewable Energy and Domestic Production: India is ramping up solar, wind, and ethanol-blended fuels to lower long-term reliance on imported oil. Eg: Initiatives like PM-KUSUM and National Bio-Energy Mission aim to reduce fossil fuel dependence and enhance energy security.
What are the key drivers of the recent oil price surge?
- Geopolitical Tensions Between Iran and Israel: The escalation in Israel-Iran conflict, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, triggered fears of significant supply disruptions, sending oil prices sharply upward. Eg: Brent crude shot up nearly 9% on June 13, reaching $75.65 per barrel, after heightened tensions.
- Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Risk: As a critical maritime chokepoint, any threat to close the Strait could drastically affect global oil flow and increase shipping and insurance costs, contributing to higher prices. Eg: Iran’s repeated threats to disrupt transit through the Strait instilled market anxiety, pushing Brent to an intraday high of $78.50 per barrel.
- Supply Constraints Due to Sanctions and Regional Export Bottlenecks: U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and potential disruptions to routes via the Suez Canal or Red Sea limit available global supply, exacerbating price volatility.
Who ensures safe oil transit through Hormuz?
- United States Navy – Fifth Fleet: The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, regularly patrols the Strait to deter threats like piracy or military aggression, especially from Iran. Eg: In 2019, after Iranian threats, the U.S. deployed additional naval assets to escort commercial tankers through Hormuz.
- International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC): A coalition of Western and Gulf nations, including the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, established the IMSC to protect freedom of navigation in the Gulf region. Eg: The UK Royal Navy has deployed warships like HMS Montrose to escort oil tankers through Hormuz during periods of heightened tension.
What global actions can reduce related risks? (Way forward)
- Strengthening Multilateral Naval Patrols: Enhancing joint maritime security through coalitions like the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) can deter potential blockades and ensure safe passage. Eg: The U.S. and UK-led naval missions in 2019 escorted oil tankers after Iran’s threats, maintaining uninterrupted oil flow.
- Diversifying Global Oil Supply Routes: Investing in alternative pipelines and trade routes (e.g., via Red Sea or land-based pipelines) reduces overdependence on chokepoints like Hormuz. Eg: The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline bypasses the Strait and delivers oil directly to the Arabian Sea, reducing exposure to disruption.
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PYQ Relevance:
[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?
Linkage: To answer this question effectively, one would need to understand the strategic objectives (Netanyahu’s “endgame”) of the key players involved, particularly Israel and the U.S., concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities and regional influence because this question is highly relevant as it directly references the “US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy,” which is a central theme of article. |
Mentor’s Comment: Israel’s massive air attack on Iran, launched on June 13, has become a major turning point in West Asia’s politics and nuclear tensions. Israel targeted important nuclear sites, military bases, and top Iranian leaders — including the head of Iran’s armed forces — in what is now the most serious direct clash between the two countries. Although Israel says it wants to stop Iran’s nuclear program, much of the damage is limited, and Iran has hit back by firing hundreds of missiles, showing that Israel’s air advantage has its limits. This rising conflict is pushing the region closer to a wider war, with uncertain choices ahead — whether through diplomacy, trying to remove Iran’s government, or involving the U.S. — all of which carry serious global risks.
Today’s editorial analyse the Israel’s massive air attack on Iran. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) in the mains Paper.
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Why in the News?
Israel controls the skies and keeps bombing Iran to stop its nuclear program. But without powerful bombers to destroy protected sites, the attacks are unlikely to end soon.
Why did Israel launch a pre-emptive air war against Iran?
- To cripple Iran’s nuclear programme: Israel aimed to destroy key facilities involved in uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel processing. Eg: The air strikes on Natanz and Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre targeted centrifuge halls, uranium conversion labs, and fuel manufacturing plants.
- To eliminate Iran’s military leadership and infrastructure: Israel sought to weaken Iran’s retaliatory capabilities by decapitating its chain of command and targeting missile sites. Eg: The first wave of attacks killed Iran’s top generals, including the chief of the armed forces, and destroyed ballistic missile sites.
- To pre-empt diplomacy and assert regional dominance: The strike came just before scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, indicating Israel’s intent to disrupt any deal that could legitimize Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Eg: The air war began three days before the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, showing that diplomacy was not Israel’s immediate priority.
What impact has Israel’s offensive had on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and retaliatory capabilities?
- Partial damage to nuclear infrastructure: Israel’s strikes caused significant but incomplete destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Eg: The Natanz facility’s above-ground buildings were “completely destroyed”, but the underground centrifuge hall remained mostly intact, as per the IAEA.
- Severe but not total disruption of key nuclear functions: Several critical facilities were hit, reducing Iran’s short-term nuclear processing ability. Eg: At Isfahan, Israel destroyed a chemical lab, uranium conversion plant, fuel manufacturing plant, and a uranium metal conversion unit—all essential to nuclear development.
- Limited impact on Iran’s missile retaliation capacity: Despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage, Iran responded with strong missile and drone attacks. Eg: Iran launched ~400 missiles, striking targets in Israel like the Haifa oil refinery and a research institute near Tel Aviv, showing its retaliatory capabilities remain intact.
How does the ongoing conflict affect regional security?
- Risk of a full-scale regional war: The conflict may escalate beyond Israel and Iran, drawing in regional actors and proxy militias. Eg: Iran’s allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq and Syria could retaliate, opening multiple war fronts across West Asia.
- Destabilization of already fragile states: Ongoing hostilities may worsen instability in politically volatile countries. Eg: Countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, already dealing with internal conflicts, could become battlefields for Israeli-Iranian proxy warfare.
- Undermining regional diplomacy and peace efforts: The conflict derails ongoing peace talks and normalisation efforts between Israel and Arab nations. Eg: Arab countries part of the Abraham Accords, like UAE and Bahrain, are now under pressure to respond, potentially freezing further diplomatic engagement with Israel.
- Threat to global energy supplies: The war risks disrupting oil production and shipping through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Eg: Iran may target Gulf oil infrastructure or tankers, affecting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE, leading to global oil price hikes.
- Increased civilian casualties and humanitarian crises: Strikes on civilian infrastructure increase displacement and humanitarian distress. Eg: Bombing of civilian locations in Iran and missile hits on Israeli cities have killed dozens and forced airport shutdowns like at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.
What is the role of global powers like the U.S.?
- Indirect support and strategic green light to Israel: While officially denying involvement, the U.S. has tacitly approved Israel’s actions. Eg: President Donald Trump publicly claimed neutrality but reportedly gave a “clear green light” to Israel before the June 13 strikes, according to Israeli officials.
- Using Israeli strikes as diplomatic leverage: The U.S. is leveraging the conflict to pressure Iran into nuclear negotiations on stricter terms. Eg: Trump indicated openness to a new nuclear deal with Iran, using Israeli aggression as a tool to push Iran back to talks.
- Avoiding direct military involvement while containing escalation: The U.S. is trying to prevent the conflict from expanding to American assets or allies. Eg: Trump warned Iran not to target U.S. troops or bases, and Iran has been cautious to avoid direct conflict with U.S. forces despite intense fighting with Israel.
What are the diplomatic and military options available to Israel in its conflict with Iran?
- Military escalation for regime change: Israel may continue bombing key infrastructure to weaken or collapse the Iranian regime. Eg: Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted at targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and stated that the offensive could lead to regime change in Tehran.
- Pause strikes to enable diplomacy: Israel could halt its attacks temporarily to allow diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Eg: Iran reportedly sent feelers through Gulf countries expressing willingness to talk if Israel stops bombing, indicating an opening for peace talks.
- Push for direct U.S. military involvement: Israel could seek to draw the U.S. into the conflict to achieve its strategic goals, especially the destruction of fortified nuclear sites. Eg: Israeli officials are pressing Washington to join the war, as U.S. bunker-buster bombs and bombers are necessary to destroy Iran’s Fordow facility.
Way forward:
- Pursue an internationally mediated ceasefire and nuclear dialogue: Global powers, especially the U.S., EU, and UN, should mediate a ceasefire to de-escalate hostilities and revive nuclear diplomacy with robust verification mechanisms. Eg: Leveraging backchannel talks through Gulf countries and involving the IAEA can help restore trust and prevent further militarisation.
- Prevent regional spillover through coordinated crisis management: Establish a joint crisis response framework involving regional actors (like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey) to contain proxy escalations and protect civilian infrastructure. Eg: A regional security dialogue could be initiated under the UN or Arab League to address missile threats, avoid airspace violations, and prevent humanitarian crises.
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[UPSC 2022] Do you think that BIMSTEC is a parallel organisation like the SAARC? What are the similarities and dissimilarities between the two? How are Indian foreign policy objectives realized by forming this new organisation?
Linkage: This article highlights India’s efforts to “reinvigorate BIMSTEC” and the significance of the BIMSTEC Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement in reducing trade friction and fostering multimodal linkages within the Bay of Bengal, with a broader goal of positioning India as a “regional integrator”. This question directly examines India’s foreign policy objectives through such regional organizations, which are central to its balancing act in the Bay of Bengal. |
Mentor’s Comment: India’s decision to cancel Bangladesh’s transshipment facility — once seen as a step towards closer regional trade — has created tension in the Bay of Bengal region. This move came at a time when Bangladesh was seen to be strengthening ties with China, leading many to believe that India’s trade decisions are now being influenced by its strategic concerns. What was once neutral and shared trade infrastructure is now becoming politically sensitive. This is important because India is also trying to promote regional trade through BIMSTEC and position itself as a leader of fair, rules-based trade. But this action goes against those goals, making it a turning point for India’s regional diplomacy.
Today’s editorial discusses the implications of India’s recent decision to cancel Bangladesh’s transhipment facility. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) in the mains Paper.
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Why in the News?
India recently withdrew Bangladesh’s access to its ports for sending goods to other countries. This move has now created tension in the Bay of Bengal.
Why did India revoke Bangladesh’s transhipment facility?
- Official Justification: Port Congestion: India cited logistical constraints and congestion at its ports, which were causing delays for Indian exporters, as the main reason for revoking the facility. Eg: Indian terminals at ports like Haldia and Kolkata were reportedly overloaded, affecting trade efficiency.
- Perceived Political Message to Bangladesh: The move was seen in Dhaka as a political signal, possibly linked to Bangladesh’s growing ties with China and a speech by its interim Chief Adviser referring to India’s Northeast as “landlocked”. Eg: The announcement followed Bangladesh’s assertion that it was a maritime lifeline for India’s Northeast, which New Delhi viewed unfavourably.
- Geopolitical Sensitivities and Strategic Hedging: India may have aimed to discourage strategic balancing by Bangladesh, especially as Dhaka has been reopening maritime trade with Pakistan and expanding engagement with Beijing. Eg: The timing suggested India was responding to Bangladesh’s diplomatic moves rather than acting purely on trade logistics.
What impact has this decision had on BIMSTEC trade and regional cooperation?
- Undermines the Spirit of Cooperative Regionalism: The withdrawal of the transshipment facility has reintroduced political conditionality into what was seen as neutral trade infrastructure, weakening trust in regional integration efforts. Eg: BIMSTEC’s Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement, aimed at easing trade, now appears less credible if access depends on bilateral politics.
- Disrupts Bangladesh’s Export Logistics: Bangladeshi exporters, especially in ready-made garments (over 85% of its foreign earnings), now face higher costs and delays in routing shipments through alternatives like Sri Lanka or Southeast Asia. Eg: Exporters relying on Indian ports for faster global access must now divert shipments to costlier and less efficient routes.
- Creates Regional Uncertainty and Strategic Caution: Other BIMSTEC members (like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar) may now view Indian trade infrastructure as subject to political shifts, potentially leading them to hedge against overdependence on India. Eg: If India’s trade facilitation appears transactional, smaller economies may seek Chinese or Southeast Asian alternatives, weakening BIMSTEC cohesion.
How does politicising trade affect India’s regional credibility?
- Erodes Trust in India’s Leadership Role: When India uses trade access as a tool of political signalling, it undermines its image as a stable and reliable regional partner. Eg: Revoking the transshipment facility with Bangladesh due to geopolitical tensions contradicts India’s projected role as a neutral integrator under initiatives like BIMSTEC and Sagarmala.
- Encourages Smaller Neighbours to Hedge Strategically: Politicised trade may push neighbouring countries to diversify economic dependencies and explore ties with rival powers such as China. Eg: Bangladesh’s increasing engagement with China, including maritime and economic cooperation, reflects a strategic shift partly influenced by India’s conditional economic approach.
- Weakens India’s Push for Rules-Based Regional Order: If trade rules are seen as subject to India’s unilateral political decisions, it undermines the credibility of multilateral frameworks India champions. Eg: The credibility of a future BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement could suffer if member states believe India might alter terms based on bilateral tensions.
Why is Bangladesh’s growing engagement with China a concern for India?
- Strategic Encirclement through China’s Influence: Bangladesh’s closer ties with China raise fears of India being strategically encircled under China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, which aims to increase Chinese presence around India’s maritime periphery. Eg: China’s involvement in Bangladesh’s port infrastructure, like the Payra and Chattogram ports, gives Beijing a potential foothold in the Bay of Bengal, affecting India’s maritime security.
- Dilution of India’s Role as a Regional Connector: If Bangladesh aligns more with China, it could sideline India’s efforts to be the primary economic and connectivity hub in South Asia. Eg: Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser referring to the country as the “maritime lifeline” for India’s Northeast indirectly challenges India’s Act East and Sagarmala initiatives.
- Undermines BIMSTEC-Led Regional Integration: China is not a BIMSTEC member, and deeper Bangladesh-China economic ties may fragment the regional architecture that India is promoting through BIMSTEC. Eg: Bangladesh’s reopening of maritime trade with Pakistan and increased Chinese engagement may discourage rules-based, India-led cooperation in the Bay of Bengal.
What measures can India take to keep trade infrastructure geopolitically neutral? (Way forward)
- Institutionalise Rules-Based Trade Frameworks: India should establish transparent, rules-based mechanisms for port access and transshipment to avoid ad-hoc or politically motivated decisions. Eg: Reinstating Bangladesh’s transshipment facility under a BIMSTEC Maritime Trade Protocol would ensure decisions are not influenced by political tensions.
- Promote Multilateral Ownership of Regional Corridors: Trade corridors should be developed through collective BIMSTEC initiatives instead of bilateral control, reducing suspicion of Indian dominance. Eg: Projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway can be expanded under a BIMSTEC umbrella for shared responsibility and access.
- Separate Strategic Concerns from Economic Policy: India must draw a firm line between diplomatic disputes and regional trade policies to preserve trust and reliability. Eg: Avoiding retaliatory restrictions (such as land port bans on Bangladeshi goods) helps maintain India’s image as a credible regional partner, even during diplomatic disagreements.
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