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  • Women Safety Issues – Marital Rape, Domestic Violence, Swadhar, Nirbhaya Fund, etc.

    Marital Rape

    12 May 2022 | op-ed snap | Polity
    Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary, Parliament & State Legislatures

    Context

    On May 10, 2022, a two-judge bench of the Delhi High Court gave a split ruling on marital rape, thus ensuring a future hearing in the Supreme Court.

    Why rape and marriage were seen as mutually exclusive

    • The concepts of rape and marriage were seen as mutually exclusive – they could not be brought together.
    • Across the world, and till very recently, marriage has been explicitly treated as being outside the purview of rape.
    • Even in the Western countries that we associate with the more “advanced” practices of gender equality, marital rape was treated as an exception to the crime of rape till the early 1990s.
    • In the absence of a universal definition, several scholars take marriage to be an institution where a man and a woman live together, have sexual relations and engage in cooperative economic activity.
    • Link between marriage and property: Others have emphasised the link between marriage and property.
    • The dominant form of marriage in the modern West became quite distinctly patriarchal, visible in late 18th-century British law, for instance, whereby a wife became the property of her husband upon marriage.
    • Husbands, therefore, had the right to access their wives sexually, without the question of coercion or consent being on the horizon in the first place.
    • As property, wives had to be protected from the (illegal) sexual access of other men, and here too, their consent was irrelevant.

    Introduction of marital rape

    • If what distinguishes the relationship of husband and wife from other relations between men and women is the legitimate expectation of sexual relations, then the introduction of marital rape signals the entry of a new and equally legitimate expectation: A wife’s consent to sexual relations is essential, and in this, she is no different from other women.
    • Husbands no longer enjoy unquestioned rights over the bodies of their wives — this is what it means for a wife to be a person with bodily integrity.

    Conclusion

    It is strange, indeed, that most parts of the world, India included, became modern while continuing to believe that wives are the property of husbands.

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  • Policy Wise: India’s Power Sector

    Power crisis in India

    11 May 2022 | op-ed snap | Economics
    Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    Context

    The power crisis has taken us by surprise. The question in everyone’s mind is: where did we go wrong? And who slipped up?

    Responsibilities in supply chain

    • Under the Electricity Act, it is the responsibility of the Distribution Licensee/Company (Discom) to provide reliable quality and round-the-clock electricity to all consumers to meet full demand.
    • To do so, they enter into contracts with a number of generating companies in order to ensure adequate supply.
    • These Discoms work under the oversight of the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions.

    Suggestions

    1] Dealing with the challenge of demand prediction

    • Qualitative transformation in demand: With higher incomes and the consequent increase in the use of air-conditioners and other electrical appliances, the nature of electricity demand is undergoing a qualitative transformation with rising daily and seasonal peaks, and spikes on very hot or cold days.
    • While demand prediction is inherently uncertain, the questions to ask are whether Discoms have been making and updating their demand growth projections and scenarios over the medium term with adequate supply arrangements in a robust manner.
    • This needs to become central to the regulatory process.
    • Ensuring reliable supply to meet unanticipated peaks, as have occurred now, requires making supply arrangements with reserve margins that are adequate.
    • The Regulatory Commissions need to provide for such expensive peaking power arrangements in the tariffs they approve.
    • It is also time to move towards separate peaking power procurement contracts in addition to the present system of long-term thermal power contracts.

    2] Demand-based time of day rates of electricity

    • A transition to demand-based time of day rates of electricity for generators as well as consumers would help.
    • These should be brought in by the Regulatory Commissions.
    • Flattening of demand curve: Peak demand moderation and flattening of the demand curve through a change in consumer behaviour is feasible with smart meters.
    • But this would take place only with a strong price signal, a large differential in peak and off-peak rates.

    3] Subsidies and politics

    • Free supply of electricity to farmers and households up to a specified level is not a problem as long as State governments pay for it as provided in the Act, and the Regulatory Commissions do not at the same time act from a political point of view and shy away from determining cost-reflective tariffs.
    • While the problem of delayed payments by Discoms is getting highlighted and needs to be resolved with a sense of urgency, the coal supply problem is not due to this.
    • Coal India needs to create capacities to rapidly ramp up production; and the Railways need to carry larger quantities of coal when demand surges, as has happened now.
    • Imported coal and gas generated electricity: There is idle but expensive generating capacity available — about 15-20 GW of gas-based power plants which can run on imported liquefied natural gas, and 6 GW-8 GW of thermal plants which can run on imported coal.
    • Consumers who are willing to pay more could be kept free of power cuts with purchase and supply of more expensive electricity generated from imported coal and gas.
    • To improve reliability, Discoms, with the approval of the Regulatory Commissions, need to go in for bids for storage.

    Conclusion

    A lesson is that demand growth projections and supply arrangements need to become central to the regulatory process.

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  • Monetary Policy Committee Notifications

    Control inflation by acting on liquidity

    11 May 2022 | op-ed snap | Economics
    Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Context

    The recent action of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise the repo rate by 40 basis points and cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points is a recognition of the serious situation with respect to inflation in our country and the resolve to tackle inflation.

    Inflation in India and role of government expenditure

    • India’s CPI inflation has been fluctuating around a high level.
    • As early as October 2020, it had hit a peak of 7.61%.
    • It had remained at a high level of over 6% since April 2020.
    • It did come down after December 2020 but has started rising significantly from January 2022.
    • On the other hand, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation had remained in double digits since April 2021. The GDP implicit price deflator-based inflation rate for 2021-22 is 9.6%.
    • Even though the RBI’s mandate is with respect to CPI inflation, policymakers cannot ignore the behaviour of other price indices.
    • After the advent of COVID-19, the major concern of policymakers all over the world was to revive demand.
    • Keynesian prescription: This was sought to be achieved by raising government expenditure.
    • Thus, the expansion in government expenditure did not immediately result in increased production in countries where the lockdown was taken seriously.
    • However, the Keynesian multiplier does not work when there are supply constraints as in developing countries.
    • That is why the multiplier operates in nominal terms rather than in real terms in such countries.
    • Something similar has happened in the present case where the supply constraint came from a non-mobility of factors of production.
    • Nevertheless, the prescription of enhanced government expenditure is still valid under the present circumstances.
    • Perhaps the increase in output could happen with a lag and also with the relaxation of restrictions.

    Role of monetary policy

    • Why lover money multiplier rate? Initially, the focus of monetary policy in India has been to keep the interest rate low and increase the availability of liquidity through various channels, some of which have been newly introduced.
    • However, the growth rate of money was below the growth rate in reserve money.
    • This is because of lower credit growth which also depends on business sentiment and investment climate.
    • Thus the money multiplier is lower than usual.
    • The Government’s borrowing programme which was larger went through smoothly, thanks to abundant liquidity.
    • Even as the economy picked up steam in 2021-22, inflation also became an issue, this is a worldwide phenomenon.
    • In India too there is a shift in monetary policy.

    Analysing the cause of inflation

    • While discussing inflation, analysts focus almost exclusively on the increases in the prices of individual commodities such as crude oil as the primary cause of inflation.
    • General price level: Supply disruptions due to domestic or external factors may explain the behaviour of individual prices but not the general price level which is what inflation is about.
    • Given a budget constraint, there will only be an adjustment of relative prices.
    • Besides the fact that any cost-push increase in one commodity may get generalised, it is the adjustment that happens at the macro level which becomes critical.
    • It is the adjustment in the macro level of liquidity that sustains inflation.

    Inflation and growth

    • The possible trade-off between inflation and growth has a long history in economic literature.
    • The Phillip’s curve has been analysed theoretically and empirically.
    • Tobin called the Phillip’s curve a ‘cruel dilemma’ because it suggested that full employment was not compatible with price stability. 
    • The critical question flowing from these discussions on trade-off is whether cost-push factors can by themselves generate inflation.
    • In the current situation, it is sometimes argued that inflation will come down, if some part of the increase in crude prices is absorbed by the government. 
    • If the additional burden borne by the government (through loss of revenue) is not offset by expenditures, the overall deficit will widen.
    • The borrowing programme will increase and additional liquidity support may be required.

    Concomitant decisions on CRR and repo rate

    • These are concomitant decisions. Central banks cannot order interest rates.
    • For a rise in the interest rate to stick, appropriate actions must be taken to contract liquidity.
    • That is what the rise in CRR will do.
    • In the absence of a rise in CRR, liquidity will have to be sucked by open market operations.

    Conclusion

    Beyond a point, inflation itself can hinder growth. Negative real rates of interest on savings are not conducive to growth. If we want to control inflation, action on liquidity is very much needed with a concomitant rise in the interest rate on deposits and loans.

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  • Minority Issues – SC, ST, Dalits, OBC, Reservations, etc.

    Govt to reconsider Minority Tag for Hindus in some states

    11 May 2022 | | Polity
    Mains Paper 2: Indian Constitution – historical underpinnings, evolution, features, amendments, significant provisions and basic structure

    The Union government will initiate a wide consultation with states and other stakeholders to examine a plea as to whether Hindus can be granted minority status in states where their numbers are comparatively less.

    Why such move?

    • Hindus are merely 1% in Ladakh, 2.75% in Mizoram, 2.77% in Lakshadweep, 4% in Jammu & Kashmir, 8.74% in Nagaland, 11.52% in Meghalaya, 29% in Arunachal Pradesh, 38.49% in Punjab, and 41.29% in Manipur.

    Who are the Minorities?

    • Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists, Jain and Zorastrians (Parsis) have been notified as minority communities under Section 2 (c) of the National Commission for Minorities Act, 1992.
    • As per the Census 2011, the percentage of minorities in the country is about 19.3% of the total population of the country.
    • The population of Muslims are 14.2%; Christians 2.3%; Sikhs 1.7%, Buddhists 0.7%, Jain 0.4% and Parsis 0.006%.
    • Minority Concentration Districts (MCD), Minority Concentration Blocks and Minority Concentration Towns, have been identified on the basis of both population data and backwardness parameters of Census 2001 of these areas.

    Who are linguistic minorities?

    • Linguistic Minorities are group or collectivities of individuals residing in the territory of India or any part thereof having a distinct language or script of their own.
    • The language of the minority group need not be one of the twenty-two languages mentioned in the Eighth Schedule of the Constitution.
    • In other words, linguistic minorities at the State level mean any group or groups of people whose mother tongues are different from the principal language of the State, and at the district and taluka/tehsil levels, different from the principal language of the district or taluka/tehsil concerned.
    • The linguistic minorities are therefore identified by the respective States/UTs.

    Defining Minorities

    • The Constitution recognizes Religious minorities in India and Linguistic minorities in India through Article 29 and Article 30.
    • But Minority is not defined in the Constitution.
    • Currently, the Linguistic minorities in India are identified on a state-wise basis thus determined by the state government whereas Religious minorities in India are determined by the Central Government.
    • The Parliament has the legislative powers and the Centre has the executive competence to notify a community as a minority under Section 2(c) of the National Commission for Minorities Act of 1992.

    Article 29: It provides that any section of the citizens residing in any part of India having a distinct language, script, or culture of its own, shall have the rights of minorities in India to conserve the same. Article 29 is applied to both minorities (religious minorities in India and Linguistic minorities in India) and also the majority. It also includes – rights of minorities in India to agitate for the protection of language.

    Article 30: All minorities shall have the rights of minorities in India to establish and administer educational institutions of their choice. Article 30 recognises only Religious minorities in India and Linguistic minorities in India (not the majority). It includes the rights of minorities in India to impart education to their children in their own language.

    Article 350-B: Originally, the Constitution of India did not make any provision with respect to the Special Officer for Linguistic minorities in India. However, the 7th Constitutional Amendment Act, 1956 inserted Article 350-B in the Constitution. It provides for a Special Officer for Linguistic Minorities appointed by the President of India. It would be the duty of the Special Officer to investigate all matters relating to the safeguards provided for linguistic minorities under the Constitution.

    Laws specifying minorities

    • There are two such laws:
    1. 1992 National Commission for Minorities (NCM) Act and
    2. 2004 National Commission for Minorities Educational Institutions (NCMEI) Act
    • Under the NCM Act, the central government has notified only six communities, namely Christians, Sikhs, Muslims, Buddhists, Parsis and Jains, as minorities as the national level.
    • The NCMEI Act entitles the six communities notified under the NCM Act to establish and administer educational institutions of their choice.

     

     

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  • Indian Army Updates

    Plans underway on Creation of Integrated Battle Groups

    11 May 2022 | | Internal Security
    Mains Paper 3: Various Security Forces, Agencies & Their Mandates

    The Indian Army is in advanced stages of putting together Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) by reconfiguring its combat formations.

    What are IBGs?

    • IBGs are brigade-sized, agile, self-sufficient combat formations, which can swiftly launch strikes against an adversary in case of hostilities.
    • Each IBG would be tailor-made based on Threat, Terrain and Task and resources will be allotted based on the three Ts.
    • They need to be light so they will be low on logistics and they will be able to mobilise within 12-48 hrs based on the location.
    • An IBG operating in a desert needs to be constituted differently from an IBG operating in the mountains.
    • The key corps of the Army is likely to be reorganized into 1-3 IBGs.

    Objective of IBG

    • Holistic integration to enhance the operational and functional efficiency, optimize budget expenditure, facilitate force modernization and address aspirations

    Structure of the IBG

    • While a command is the largest static formation of the Army spread across defined geography, a corps is the largest mobile formation.
    • Typically each corps has about three brigades.
    • The idea is to reorganise them into IBGs which are brigade-sized units but have all the essential elements like infantry, armoured, artillery and air defence embedded together based on the three Ts.
    • The IBGs will also be defensive and offensive. While the offensive IBGs would quickly mobilise and make a thrust into enemy territory for strikes, defensive IBGs would hold ground at vulnerable points or where enemy action is expected.

    Why need IBGs?

    • After the terrorist attack on the Parliament, the Indian military undertook massive mobilization but the Army’s formations which deep inside took weeks to mobilise losing the element of surprise.
    • Following this, the Army formulated a proactive doctrine known as ‘Cold Start’ to launch swift offensive but its existence was consistently denied in the past.
    • Its existence was acknowledged for the first time by (Late) Gen Rawat in January 2017.

     

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  • Wildlife Conservation Efforts

    Highlights of State of the World’s Birds Report

    11 May 2022 | Prelims Only | Environment
    Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    The State of the World’s Birds, an annual review of environmental resources has revealed that the population of 48% of the 10,994 surviving species of birds is declining.

    State of the World’s Birds

    • The report is published by the Manchester Metropolitan University.
    • It gives an overview of the changes in the knowledge of avian biodiversity and the extent to which it is imperilled.
    • The study draws from BirdLife International’s latest assessment of all birds for the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List.

    What are the key findings of the study?

    • The study found that 5,245 or about 48% of the existing bird species worldwide are known or suspected to be undergoing population declines.
    • While 4,295 or 39% of the species have stable trends, about 7% or 778 species have increasing population trends.
    • It shows 1,481 or 13.5% species are currently threatened with global extinction.

    Where the birds are threatened the most?

    • The more threatened bird species (86.4%) are found in tropical than in temperate latitudes (31.7%).
    • Such hotspots are concentrated in the tropical Andes, southeast Brazil, eastern Himalayas, eastern Madagascar, and Southeast Asian islands.

    What is the importance of birds to ecosystems and culture?

    • Birds contribute toward many ecosystem services that either directly or indirectly benefit humanity.
    • These include provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services.
    • The functional role of birds within ecosystems as pollinators, seed-dispersers, ecosystem engineers, scavengers and predators.
    • They not only facilitate accrual and maintenance of biodiversity but also support human endeavours such as sustainable agriculture via pest control besides aiding other animals to multiply.
    • For instance, coral reef fish productivity has been shown to increase as seabird colonies recovered following rat eradication in the Chagos archipelago.
    • Wild birds and products derived from them are also economically important as food (meat, eggs).

    What are the threats contributing to avian biodiversity loss?

    • The study lists eight factors, topped by land cover and land-use change.
    • The continued growth of human populations and of per capita rates of consumption lead directly to conversion and degradation of primary natural habitats.
    • Deforestation has been driven by afforestation with plantations (often of non-native species) plus land abandonment in parts of the global North, with net loss in the tropics.
    • The other factors are habitat fragmentation, degradation, hunting and trapping.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2020:

    Q.With reference to India’s Biodiversity, Ceylon frogmouth, Coppersmith barbet, Gray-chinned minivet and White-throated redstart are

    (a) Birds

    (b) Primates

    (c) Reptiles

    (d) Amphibians

     

    Post your answers here.

     

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  • Modern Indian History-Events and Personalities

    Places in news: Martand Sun Temple

    11 May 2022 | Prelims Only | History
    Mains Paper 1: Arts & Culture

    After Prayers held at the ruins of the eighth-century Martand Sun Temple in Jammu and Kashmir’s Anantnag is deemed to be a violation of the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) rules.

    About Martand Sun Temple

    • The Martand Sun Temple is a Hindu temple located near the city of Anantnag in the Kashmir Valley.
    • It dates back to the eighth century AD and was dedicated to Surya, the chief solar deity.
    • The temple was destroyed by Sikandar Shah Miri in a bid to undertake mass conversion and execution of Hindus in the valley.
    • According to Kalhana, the Temple was commissioned by Lalitaditya Muktapida in the eighth century AD.
    • The temple is built on top of a plateau from where one can view whole of the Kashmir Valley.
    • From the ruins the visible architecture seems to be blended with the Gandharan, Gupta and Chinese forms of architecture.

    Why in news now?

    • According to ASI, prayers are allowed at its protected sites only if they were “functioning places of worship” at the time it took charge of them.
    • No religious rituals can be conducted at non-living monuments where there has been no continuity of worship when it became an ASI-protected site.

    What are the living/non-living monument?

    • If some activity, like any kind of worship, has been going on for years in the structure, then it is taken over as a living monument.
    • But where no activity has taken place, say an abandoned building, then it is declared a dead monument.
    • The latter is difficult to restore because it is generally covered by a lot of overgrowths.
    • The best-known example of a living ASI monument is the Taj Mahal in Agra, where namaz is held every Friday.

     

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  • Nobel and other Prizes

    Pulitzer Prize and the Indians who have won it

    11 May 2022 | Prelims Only | Trivia

    A team of four Indian photographers have won the 2022 Pulitzer Prize for feature photography for their coverage of the Covid-19 crisis in India.

    About Pulitzer Prize

    • The Pulitzer is the most coveted award for journalists from across the world.
    • It is announced by America’s Columbia University and bestowed on the recommendation of the Pulitzer Prize Board.

    Who was Joseph Pulitzer, after whom the awards are named?

    • Born to a wealthy family of Magyar-Jewish origin in Mako, Hungary, in 1847, Joseph Pulitzer had a stint in the military before he built a reputation of being a “tireless journalist”.
    • In the late 1860s he joined the German-language daily newspaper Westliche Post, and by 25 he had become a publisher.
    • In 1884, he was elected to the US House of Representatives from New York’s ninth district as a Democrat.

    When were the Pulitzer awards instituted?

    • The awards were instituted according to Pulitzer’s will, framed in 1904, where he made a provision for the establishment of the Pulitzer Prizes as an incentive to excellence.
    • Pulitzer specified solely four awards in journalism, four in letters and drama, one for education, and five travelling scholarships.
    • After his death in 1911, the first Pulitzer Prizes were awarded in June, 1917.

    Indians who have won the Pulitzer

    • A member of the Ghadar Party in America, journalist Gobind Behari Lal, was the first from India to win the Prize in 1937.
    • In 2000, London-born Indian-American writer Jhumpa Lahiri won the Pulitzer Prize in Fiction for her debut short story collection Interpreter of Maladies.
    • In 2003, Mumbai-born Geeta Anand was part of the team at Wall Street Journal that won a Pulitzer Prize for reporting on corporate corruption.
    • In 2016, Indian-American Sanghamitra Kalita, then managing editor of Los Angeles Times, won the Pulitzer.

    The list goes on to date ….

     

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  • Literacy and delivery of services, not religion, influences fertility

    10 May 2022 | op-ed snap | Trivia
    Mains Paper 1: Population & Associated Issues

    Context

    The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5 report that was awaited for nearly six months is finally out. And it provides a heartening outlook.

    About NHFS

    • Started in 1992-93, it has culminated in the fifth round 2019-21.
    • The NFHS is a large, multi-round survey that, inter alia, provides information on fertility, infant and child mortality, the practice of family planning, reproductive health, nutrition, anaemia, quality and utilisation of health and family planning services.
    • The surveys provide essential data needed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and other agencies for policy and programme purposes.
    • The Ministry assigned the nodal responsibility for the task to the International Institute for Population Sciences(IIPS), Mumbai.
    • Several international agencies are involved in providing technical and financial assistance, mainly USAID, DFID, UNICEF, and UNFPA.

    Replacement rate achieved

    • Replacement rate achieved: The report shows that India has finally achieved the replacement rate of 2.1TFR (Total Fertility Rate is the total number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime).
    • In fact, it has gone below the mark to 2.0.
    • There are, of course, large interstate variations.
    • The lagging states are UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur and Meghalaya.
    • Significantly, there were four states which were keeping the figures poor, namely, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
    • Two states, Rajasthan and MP, have struggled to get out of this group, while Jharkhand and the two northeastern states have replaced them.
    • UP and Bihar because of their sheer size are pulling down the national average.
    • Rajasthan and MP have reached the TFR of 2, which shows the success of their efforts.

    Influencing factors

    • It is not religion as commonly propounded but literacy, especially of girls, income and delivery of family planning, and health services.
    • 1] Delivery of services: The figures would have been even better if all those who have been made aware of the benefits of family planning had received the services they desire.
    • Making people informed of the need and methods of family planning and motivating them to adopt family planning is difficult enough.
    •  Having achieved the difficult task, we are not able to provide the services communities need — the “unmet need” — which is still very high at 9.4 per cent.
    • If we focus on this issue in a mission mode, the family planning performance will dramatically improve.
    • 2] Male attitude towards family planning: They tend to put the onus for birth control on women.
    • As many as 35 per cent men believe that using contraceptives is a woman’s responsibility. They ignore the fact that male vasectomy is a much simpler procedure than female tubectomy.
    • 3] Acceptance of family planning:  Muslim acceptance of family planning has continued through the five surveys spread over three decades at a rate faster than all other communities.
    • Though birth control practice among Muslims is still the least – 47.4 per cent (up from 45 per cent in NFHS-4).
    • Other communities — for example, Hindus — are not far behind with 58 per cent (up from 56 per cent).
    • This means that 42 per cent of the 80 per cent of the population are not practising family planning.
    • Education:  Women who have not attended school have 2.8 TFR as against 1.8 for those who have completed class XII.
    • Poverty: Similar gap of figure one is visible in the context of poverty with the poorest segment having higher TFR than the richest.

    Conclusion

    The time has come to leave politics behind and work together for achieving the goals set by National Population Policy 2000. Instead of misleading narratives, we need to address the real determinants of fertility behaviour – literacy, income generation and improvement of health and family planning services.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-United States

    Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    10 May 2022 | op-ed snap | International Relations
    Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India, Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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