💥UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (April Batch) + Access XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Type: op-ed snap

  • Industrial Sector Updates – Industrial Policy, Ease of Doing Business, etc.

    Formal sector and fine print

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Inclusive Growth & Issues,Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Formalisation and its challenges

    Context

    A recent study by SBI has reported that the Indian economy witnessed accelerated formalisation under the distressed conditions of the pandemic and the lockdown last year. The study estimates that the share of the informal economy has fallen to a mere one-fifth of GDP — a figure comparable to many advanced economies.

    Understanding informality

    • ILO definition: The ILO’s globally accepted framework for definitions is as follows: Informal sector enterprises are defined as private unincorporated enterprises owned by individuals (or households) that are not constituted as separate legal entities independently of their owners.
    • They are not registered under specific national legislation (such as Factories’ or Commercial Acts).
    • Definition of a formal worker in India: Formal workers in India, on the other hand, are defined as those having access to at least one social security benefit such as a provident fund or healthcare benefits.

    What explains the decline of informal sector in GDP

    • Significance of informal sector: In 2017-18, as per the latest official statistics, India’s informal sector accounted for approximately 52 per cent of its GDP, employing 82 per cent of the total workforce.
    • These ratios have broadly remained unchanged over the last decade.
    • Most affected due to pandemic: As the informal (unorganised) sector bore much of the brunt of the economic contraction during 2020-21, a decline in its share in GDP is unsurprising.
    • Lack of financial strength: The sector had neither the financial strength nor the technical wherewithal to face the Covid shock.
    • Inadequate policy support: Additionally, policy support, mostly supply-side measures, was mainly focused on firms in the formal sector, with the informal sector left to fend for itself.

    Issues with decline

    • Undeniably, the informal sector’s share in GDP is likely to have shrunk due to the Covid shock.
    • However, alarmingly, the purported decline in the informal sector’s share in GDP has not been accompanied by an expected reduction in its employment share. 
    • Data from the official annual Period Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2017-18 and 2019-20, where the latter includes the period of the Covid shock from April to June 2020, shows that the employment share in non-agricultural informal enterprises has increased from 68 per cent in 2017-18 to 69.5 per cent in 2019-20.
    • These figures do not include the agricultural sector, where employment is almost entirely in the informal sector.
    • The increasing share of the formal sector in terms of GDP but declining share in employment only widens the schism (or dualism) between the two sectors.
    • The increasing share of the formal sector in terms of GDP but declining share in employment only widens the schism (or dualism) between the two sectors.

    Implications

    • Impact on investment and growth: The lack of remunerative jobs for the vast majority of Indian consumers implies that eventually the lack of growth in demand will adversely impact investment and economic growth.
    • After all, a mere 17-18 per cent of the workforce in the organised sector cannot sustain growth of the economy in the long run.
    •  Squeezing out informal enterprises: The increase in the formal sector’s share in GDP due to Covid-19 is a result of large, formal enterprises squeezing out informal enterprises.
    • It is important to note here that the increase in formalisation is not a consequence of micro and small informal firms transitioning to formality.

    Increasing productivity: A way forward to formalisation

    • Promoting formalisation: Over the last five years, the economy has officially witnessed a significant drive towards formalisation.
    • Multiple reasons for avoiding formalisation: It is crucial to recognise that firms exist in the informal sector for various reasons and not simply to evade regulations and taxation.
    • Significance of productivity: Many own account enterprises and MSMEs cannot afford to survive in the formal sector due to their low productivity.
    • It is essential to view the process of formalisation as a development strategy that requires stepping up investment in physical and human capital to boost productivity and the extension of social security benefits for all workers, not just a registration strategy on myriad portals.

    Consider the question “Informal sector has been affected disproportionately in the wake of the pandemic. What are the implications of this for the economy? Suggest the way forward for the formalisation.”

    Conclusion

    The informal sector will come back to life as much of it represents the survival efforts of the working poor. Celebrating formalisation based on the misery and devastation of poor informal workers (and their meagre productive assets) is not just misplaced but also callous.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • A collaborative tech vision for US, UAE, Israel and India

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- A collaborative tech vision for India, UAE, ISRAEL and the US

    Context

    Last month’s meeting between the foreign ministers of India, the US, Israel, and the UAE has set foreign policy circles in India abuzz with talks of the potential emergence of another quadrilateral grouping or as analysts term it, a “new Quad”.

    Significance of the new Quad meeting

    • Collaboration in various areas: The grouping discussed technology collaboration along with the joint infrastructure projects in transportation, enhancing political and economic cooperation and maritime security matters.
    • Forum for economic cooperation: They have agreed to set up an international forum for economic cooperation.
    • Collaboration on technology: Amongst all the issues discussed, the technology dimension of this partnership promises a far greater potential for collaboration.
    • The four countries are uniquely placed to shape an innovation-based partnership, which can conjoin the technology hubs of Silicon Valley, Dubai, Tel Aviv, and Bengaluru.
    • Such potential collaboration can benefit from the existing robust cooperation between these countries.
    • Collaboration in fintech: The agreement between Start-Up Nation Central, an Israeli non-profit that connects the tech ecosystem, and Dubai International Financial Centre, the UAE’s financial hub, will create regulatory sandboxes and accelerators for start-ups and provide them with market access opportunities.
    • India and the US have been separately working with the two countries on multiple projects.

    New Quad’s technology cooperation

    • Tech-based collaboration: Given the synergies in the innovation and startup sector, it is logical that the “new Quad” works towards tech-based collaboration.
    • The agenda for the new Quad’s technology cooperation can begin by selecting three technologies — quantum science, blockchain, and 3D printing.
    • Collaboration in quantum technology: Israel and the US, too, have made research on quantum technology a priority by allocating $91 million and $1.2 billion respectively to this sector.
    • India is also fast catching up through its National Mission on Quantum Technologies and Applications and joining hands with countries like France to work on this technology.
    • Collaboration in the blockchain:  in blockchain, India and the UAE can leverage the American and Israeli expertise in cyber and cryptography to craft customised applications for use in banking, fintech and trade financing.
    • Collaboration in 3-D printing: In 3D printing, which promises to transform the manufacturing process radically, Israel has taken the lead in manufacturing about 40 per cent of 3D printers worldwide.
    • India, in contrast, has been slow in getting onto the 3D printing bandwagon. But it can certainly benefit from the expertise of the US, Israel and the UAE.
    • Opportunity for India: From the Indian perspective, such partnerships can leverage Silicon Valley’s venture capital funding, Tel Aviv’s close-knit organic linkages between start-ups, industry, and academia, and UAE’s funding and focus on innovation.
    • To this mix, Bengaluru — and potentially Hyderabad — can add opportunities for scaling up and manufacturing.
    • The startup community in the US, Israel and the UAE have already reached an advanced research and development stage providing an opportunity for India to build expertise and offer the scale to the development and applications of these technologies.

    Way forward

    • Security cooperation: The collaborative and customisation possibilities offered by these technologies and their dual-use nature offers the potential to give a technological edge to the four countries’ militaries.
    •  This, in turn, can add the security cooperation element to the grouping’s agenda.
    • Broaden the base: If the four countries plug their innovation ecosystems in this collaboration to shortlist, fund and develop technologies, it will also help to broaden the base of cooperation for this grouping, rather than restrict it to the government-to-government domain.
    • Government push will be the essential catalyst to unlock this space for cooperation through seed-funding, academic collaborations, industrial partnerships and MoUs.
    • China factor: By collaborating with Russia, and domestic flagship initiatives like “Made in China 2025”, Beijing has pursued emerging technologies and successfully reduced the capability gap with Washington.
    • These developments make it imperative for the US, Israel, UAE, and India to strengthen their newly established cooperation.

    Conclusion

    Each country with its unique advantage in the field of science and technology, innovation and start-ups can make a significant contribution to advance shared technological goals.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Police Reforms – SC directives, NPC, other committees reports

    Issues with ordinance that extend the tenure of the Director of the CBI

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: General conent

    Mains level: Paper 2- Reforms in CBI

    Context

    The Central government’s decision to give a five-year tenure to heads of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) has drawn a lot of flak.

    Background

    • Apex court’s directive giving a mandatory two-year tenure to the Director of the CBI was a fallout of the Hawala scandal.
    • Prior to that, the government was arbitrary and capricious in choosing the Director.
    • It was not rare to see temporary appointments given to favour some individuals.
    • Seniority was often ignored in appointments and Directors were removed frequently.

    Why tenure matters

    • Short tenure: A two-year tenure for a CBI head is too short for any officer to make an impact on the organisation.
    • Longer provides the much-needed continuity that a Director needs in an outfit charged with the task of conducting highly sensitive investigations, which sometimes impinge on the longevity and stability of a democratically elected government.
    • The Federal Bureau of Investigation chief in the U.S. gets a 10-year term.

    Suggestions

    • Need to avoid government interference: Any blatantly dishonest interference in the working of the organisation is bound to raise the hackles of those who believe in and carry out straightforward investigations.
    • The government will therefore have to show enormous restraint in its interactions with the head of the CBI.
    • Balancing accountability with autonomy: Of course, as a measure of accountability, the Director will have to keep the government informed of all major administrative decisions.
    • He or she should inform the executive but not take orders from it.
    • Need for CBI Act: Successive chiefs have suggested the drafting of a CBI Act to ensure that the organisation is not dependent on the State governments, many of which have withdrawn consent for the CBI to function in that State.
    • Eight States — West Bengal, Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram — have withdrawn the general consent.
    • The CBI should be made to derive its authority for launching investigations from its own statute instead of depending on the Criminal Procedure Code, which makes the CBI a police organisation.

    Issue with ordinance

    • The only problem with the latest ordinance is that, at the end of the mandatory two-year tenure, the government will have to issue orders granting one-year extensions at a time. 
    • The rule about three annual extensions can be misused by a tendentious government.
    • It may be construed as a reward for ‘good behaviour’, which is a euphemism for an obliging Director.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges facing Central Bureau of Investigation? Suggest the measures to make the organisation more effective.” 

    Conclusion

    We will have to wait for a few years to gauge the impact of the change in tenure rules. It is preposterous to probe the intentions of this major move.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Back2Basics: General Consent

    • A “general consent” is normally given by states to help the CBI in seamless investigation of cases of corruption against central government employees in their states.
    • Almost all states have traditionally given such consent, in the absence of which the CBI would have to apply to the state government in every case, and before taking even small actions.
    • Section 6 of The DSPE Act (“Consent of State Government to exercise of powers and jurisdiction”) says: “Nothing contained in section 5 (“Extension of powers and jurisdiction of special police establishment to other areas”) shall be deemed to enable any member of the Delhi Special Police Establishment to exercise powers and jurisdiction in any area in a State, not being a Union territory or railway area, without the consent of the Government of that State.”

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Pakistan

    Kabul, Kashmir and the return of realpolitik

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Return of Taliban in Afghanistan and implications for India-Pakistan relations

    Context

    In a rather unfriendly neighbourhood, New Delhi’s attempts at forming a regional consensus to stabilise Afghanistan, albeit wise and timely, will only achieve limited success thanks to the China-Pakistan coalition and its interests at play in and over Afghanistan.

    Role played by China and Pakistan in Afghanistan and its implications for India

    • China’s long-term vision for Afghanistan revolves around the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project of which Afghanistan has been a part since May 2016.
    • The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also viewed as a key component within the larger Chinese BRI project and Afghanistan could eventually become part of CPEC if and when the Taliban regime stabilises itself in the country.
    • Role of Pakistan in keeping India away from Afghanistan: While Pakistan lobbies the international community to help prevent Afghanistan slide into further turmoil, it is determined to keep India as far away from Kabul as possible.
    • Pakistan has always been deeply suspicious of growing India-Afghanistan relations no matter who was/is in charge in Kabul.
    • Implications for India: It is likely that the more India gets close to the Taliban, the more the Pakistani side will increase the ‘attacks’ in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • By maintaining ties with the Taliban and convening the regional security meeting in New Delhi, India has indicated that this is an acceptable risk.
    • Regional Security Dialogue: The recently-held Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan was an important initiative to help Afghanistan stabilise, the reality is that the two countries that are key to stabilising Afghanistan — China and Pakistan — decided to stay away from it.
    • Scope for other powers: Russia or the Central Asian states have neither the ability nor the desire to pursue a role in Afghanistan autonomous from the larger Chinese or Pakistani designs there.

    The dilemma facing the international community

    • Taliban and Pakistan refer to the U.S.-led coalition as ‘colonisers’ who just vacated the Afghan territory; and in the same breath, they seek assistance from those very ‘former colonisers’.
    • But perhaps what might bother the West the most is that if they stabilise the country, they would still be called former colonisers, and Pakistan and China will benefit out of it geopolitically, making it, in that sense, a thankless job for the West.
    • So the question before the western leaders is how to offer structured incentives to the Taliban, and when.

    The dilemma facing India

    • To engage the Taliban or not: The first one was to decide whether to engage the Taliban or not.
    • The successive governments in Afghanistan, including the current Taliban regime, have sought relations with India which has upset Pakistan.
    • The Taliban want India to engage and help the country stabilise, but Pakistan resents that.
    • Catch-22 situation for India: If the Taliban regime is stabilised in Kabul without India’s assistance to the country, the more it is likely to do Pakistan’s bidding vis-à-vis India.
    • On the other hand, the more India helps the Taliban-led Afghanistan, the more Pakistan will up the ante in Kashmir.
    • This is a catch-22 situation that India finds itself in.
    • And yet, India has little choice but to engage the Taliban.

    How Taliban victory led to change in Pakistan’s Kashmir policy

    • The earlier Pakistani willingness to be conciliatory towards India on Kashmir before and in the run-up to the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021 seems to have disappeared for now.
    • This is at least partly due to the Pakistani triumphalism about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
    • Since then, violence data show that the backchannel understanding is withering away with violence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) spiking along all three indicators albeit gradually.
    • Sentiments from across the border also indicate that the earlier Pakistani stand that it would accept the Indian decision to withdraw the special status to Kashmir in lieu of New Delhi restoring Statehood to Kashmir and allowing political activity in the State has now change.
    • It now demands that India fully reverts to the pre-August 5, 2019 position on Kashmir.

    Way forward

    • No possibility of cooperation with China and Pak: Any possibility of India-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan would be very hard to achieve.
    • Beijing will play along; so will Iran and the Central Asian countries, for the most part.
    • Coordinate with other powers: For India, the options are to coordinate its Afghan policy with Moscow, Washington and the various western capitals while steadfastly engaging the Taliban.

    Consider the question “Return of Taliban in Afghanistan and consequential geopolitical changes in the region are bound to have implications for India-Pakistan relation. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    India’s advances to court the Taliban and attempts to evolve a regional consensus on Afghanistan might deteriorate India-Pakistan relations and pose challenges for India in Kashmir.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Policy Wise: India’s Power Sector

    India needs a coordinated approach for decarbonisation of economy

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Emission intensity

    Mains level: Paper 3- Decarbonising the Indian economy

    Context

    The announcement of enhanced targets for climate action by India, particularly for achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, has highlighted the importance of long-term planning for decarbonising the economy.

    Why do we need a decarbonizing strategy

    • The Government of India has responded to rapid reductions in the cost of renewable energy (RE) based power, with dramatic enhancements in the targets for RE.
    • With this approach, India has done well and is on a path to fulfilling its Paris Agreement commitments for 2030.
    • However, the road ahead will be challenging, and therefore, a coordinated strategy for decarbonising the economy efficiently and effectively will be required.

    Strategy for decarbonising the economy

    • Factoring in the changes: By 2070, there will be many changes in technology, environmental conditions, and the economy.
    • The planning horizon of about 50 years will need to be broken up into shorter periods so that new knowledge about emerging technologies can be incorporated into plans.
    • Monitoring of the progress: Plans will need to be monitored so that the course can be corrected to respond to any unforeseen problems.
    • Five years, as the UK has used, seems like a reasonable “Goldilocks ideal.”
    • An autonomous and technically credible agency, like the Climate Change Committee (CCC) in the UK, should be set up.

    Decarbonising the power sector

    • Biggest source of GHG: The power sector is the biggest source of GHG emissions and also the easiest one to decarbonise.
    • Reducing emission intensity is a good overarching objective; increased use of RE or non-fossil-fuel generation is a means to that end.
    • The four 2030 targets: Non-fossil fuel generating capacity to be 500 GW, RE capacity to be 50 per cent of all generation capacity, reduction in emission intensity by 45 per cent, and avoidance of GHG emissions by 1 billion tonnes — are inter-related.

    Suggestions to decarbonise the power sector

    • Set emission intensity targets: Setting permissible emission intensity in terms of grammes of carbon dioxide equivalent per kWh of electricity sold, would be a good option for targets in the power sector.
    • Single emission-related objective: In order to decarbonise the power sector, it would be best to have a single emissions-related objective so that an optimal strategy can be developed to achieve the objective at the lowest cost.
    • Avoid separate targets: Currently there is a profusion of separate targets for almost every resource used to generate electricity.
    • For example, there are separate renewable purchase obligations (RPOs) for solar, non-solar RE, and hydropower.
    • Such an approach reduces the flexibility of distribution companies to select resources to meet their loads, resulting in a non-optimal resource mix, and a higher cost of electricity.
    • Reconsider RPO: RPOs are usually imposed to support nascent technologies, and because RE is now competitive on costs with conventional generation, the need for RPOs should be reconsidered.
    • The use of emission intensity targets is a better approach.

    Consider the question “Why power sector holds the key to decarbonising the Indian economy? Suggest the strategy India should follow to decarbonise the power sector.”

    Conclusion

    The use of five-year interim targets for permissible emission intensity and the establishment of an autonomous and credible agency to advise the government on targets and policies and to monitor progress will greatly facilitate an effective, economic, and smooth transition to decarbonisation of the power sector first, and the Indian economy later by 2070.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India – EU

    The EU’s role in the Indo-Pacific

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: AUKUS

    Mains level: Paper 2- EU's role in Indo-Pacific

    Context

    Speedy development of the Quad comprising Australia, Japan, India and the U.S.; the emergence of AUKUS comprising Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.; and other alignments raise the question: where does Europe stand in relation to this churning?

    Significance of EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy

    • Europe’s Asia connect is old, strong and multi-layered.
    • Since 2018, countries such as France, the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K. announced their specific policies towards the Indo-Pacific.
    • The announcement by the Council of the European Union of its initial policy conclusions in April, followed by the unveiling of the EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific on September 16, are notable.
    • Focus on security and development: The policy document also says cooperation will be strengthened in sustainable and inclusive prosperity, green transition, ocean governance, digital governance and partnerships, connectivity, security and defence, and human security.

    Way forward for EU

    • Support France: The EU’s security and defence capabilities are quite limited, as compared to the U.S. and China.
    • To obviate an imbalance in favour of economic links, EU will need to give adequate space and support to France which has sizeable assets and linkages with the Indo-Pacific.
    • Coordination with UK: EU also must forge strategic coordination with the U.K. as the latter prepares to expand its role in Asia as part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy.
    • Leverage economic power: As a major economic power, the EU has an excellent chance of success in its trade negotiations with Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand; economic partnership agreement with the East African Community; and in forging fisheries agreements and green alliances.
    • To achieve all this and more, EU must increase its readiness to share its financial resources and new technologies with partners.
    • Internally coordinated approach:Many states view China as a great economic opportunity, but others are acutely conscious of the full contours of the China challenge.
    • Russia next door is the more traditional threat. It is increasingly on China’s side.
    • Hence, the EU should find it easy to cooperate with the Quad.
    • AUKUS, endeavours by a part of the western alliance to bolster naval and technological facilities to deal with China should be welcome.

    Way forward for India

    • India’s pivotal position in the region necessitates a closer India-EU partnership.
    • Early conclusion of an ambitious and comprehensive trade agreement and a standalone investment protection agreement will be major steps.
    • Cooperation in Industry 4.0 technologies is desirable.
    • Consolidating and upgrading defence ties with France, Germany and the U.K. should also remain a significant priority.

    Conclusion

    The EU can create a vantage position for itself in the Indo-Pacific by being more candid with itself, more assertive with China, and more cooperative with India.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Middle East

    What the rise of pan-Turkism means for India

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Lapis Lazuli corridor

    Mains level: Paper 2- India-Turkey relations

    Context

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing internationalist card for national benefit. India, which has been worried about Erdogan’s Islamist politics, must now begin to pay attention to another political idea from the Turkish president — promoting pan-Turkism.

    Impact of political ideas on global politics

    • Internationalism based on religion, region or secular ideologies has always run headlong into resistance from sectarianism and nationalism.
    • Yet, these ideas have a profound impact on global politics.
    • Calls for regionalism and internationalism as well as religious and ethnic solidarity often end up as instruments for the pursuit of national interest.

    The rise of pan-Turkism

    • Foundation of OTS: The international symbol of solidarity among peoples of Turkic ethnicity has been the Council of Turkic States, formed in 2009 by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
    •  At a summit of the Council’s leaders last week in Istanbul, it was announced that the forum has been elevated to an “Organisation of Turkic States”.
    • Hungary, which has a long history of association with Turkic people, and Turkmenistan have observer status.
    •  At least a dozen other countries have apparently shown interest in getting observer status.
    • Implications: There is no escaping the fact that Turkey is determined to rewrite the geopolitics of Eurasia.
    • The rise of pan-Turkism is bound to have important consequences for Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Central Asia and, more broadly, India’s Eurasian neighbourhood.

    Rise of Turkey in Central Asia

    • Soft power initiatives: Over the last three decades, a number of soft power initiatives — in education, culture, and religion — have raised Turkey’s profile in Central Asia and generated new bonds with the region’s elites.
    • Military power: It is in the domains of hard power — commercial and military — that Turkey’s progress has been impressive.
    • Turkey has stunned much of the world with its military power projection into the region.
    • That Kazakhstan, a member of the Russia-led regional security bloc, is moving towards strategic cooperation with Turkey, a member of US-led NATO, points to the thickening pan-Turkic bonds in a rapidly changing regional order.
    • The dominance of economy and trade: Nearly 5,000 Turkish companies work in Central Asia. Turkish annual trade with the region is around $10 billion.
    • This could change as Turkey strengthens connectivity with Central Asia through the Caucasus.
    • For the Central Asian states, living under the shadow of Chinese economic power and Russian military power, Turkey offers a chance for economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy.
    • Connectivity: Turkey has also made impressive progress in building transportation corridors to Central Asia and beyond, to China, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
    • The so-called Lapis Lazuli Corridor now connects Turkey to Afghanistan via Turkmenistan.

    What should be India’s approach towards Turkey?

    • Pan-Turkism is a good reason for India to explore a more purposeful engagement with Turkey.
    • Issues: There is no denying that the current differences between Delhi and Ankara over Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan are real and serious.
    • Need for dialogue: The current political divergence only reinforces the case for a sustained dialogue between the two governments and the strategic communities of the two countries.
    • Lessons for India: Turkey’s own geopolitics offers valuable lessons on how to deal with Ankara.
    • That Turkey is a NATO member has not stopped Erdogan from a strategic liaison with Russian.
    • Purchase of advanced weapons like S-400 missiles from Moscow  does not stop Erdogan from meddling in Russia’s Central Asian backyard.
    • Criticism of China’s repression of Turkic Uighurs in Xinjiang — that was once called “Eastern Turkestan” — goes hand-in-hand with deep economic collaboration with Beijing.
    • What does this policy tell India? One, Erdogan’s enduring enthusiasm for Pakistan does not preclude Turkey from doing business — economic and strategic — with India.
    • Limiting Turkish hegemony: Erdogan’s ambitions have offended many countries in Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
    • Many of them are eager to expand strategic cooperation with India in limiting Turkish hegemony.
    • This opens a range of new opportunities for Indian foreign and security policy in Eurasia.
    • Imperative to engage: Sceptics will point to the fact that Erdogan’s time is running out.
    • That does not, however, alter the Indian imperative to engage with Turkey.

    Consider the question “Turkey’s influence in Eurasian region is expanding. In this context examine the issues that adds friction between India and Turkey and suggest the approach India should adopt in dealing with Turkey.”

    Conclusion

    Independent India has struggled to develop good relations with Turkey over the decades. A hard-headed approach in Delhi today, however, might open new possibilities with Ankara and in Turkey’s Eurasian periphery.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Digital India Initiatives

    Central bank digital currency (CBDC)

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Digital currencies

    Mains level: Paper 3- CBDC and challenges

    Context

    Recently, Nigeria joined the Bahamas and five islands in the East Caribbean as the only economies to have introduced central bank digital currency (CBDC). This is a shortlist, but one that is likely to be supplemented.

    Benefits of CBDC

    • Desire to make domestic payments systems and cross-border remittances cheaper, faster and more efficient, and deepen financial inclusion, represent key areas of priority for most other emerging market and development economies (EMDEs).
    • Between 2019 and 2021, the last three surveys conducted by the Bank for International Settlements showed that the primary drivers for central banks of EMDEs to study CBDCs were domestic payments efficiency, financial inclusion and payments safety.

    Design features of CBDCs

    • In theory, the potential of CBDCs are only limited by their design and the capabilities of the central bank issuing it, but their appropriateness and form also depend on the state of the domestic banking and payments industry.
    • Ultimately, CBDCs must be seen as a means to an end.
    • A particular CBDC could, for example, be account-based or tokenised, may be distributed directly by the central bank or through intermediaries, may be interest-bearing (even the possibility of a negative interest has been considered), may be programmable, may offer limited pseudonymity to its holders (similar to, but not to the extent of, cash) and so on.
    • Whether it may be one or the other depends on what its country requires it to be.

    Challenges

    • An economy that adopts an interest-bearing CBDC could make the interest rate on CBDCs the main tool of monetary policy transmission domestically (assuming a high degree of substitution of fiat and fiat-like currency).
    • On the other hand, as former RBI Governor D Subbarao recently warned, rendering an Indian CBDC as an interest-bearing instrument could pose an existential threat to the banking system by eroding its critical role as intermediaries in the economy.
    • If CBDCs compete with bank deposits and facilitate a reduction of bank-held deposits, banks stand to lose out on an important and stable source of funding.
    • Banks may respond by increasing deposit rates, but this would necessitate a higher lending rate to preserve margins, and dampen lending activities.
    • The resultant shrinking of balance sheets will lead to a more pronounced disintermediation role for financial institutions, which could have long-term effects on financial stability, and facilitate easier bank runs.
    • The introduction of CBDCs would require central banks to maintain much larger balance sheets, even in non-crisis times.
    • They would need to replace the lost funding (because of migration of deposits) by lending potentially huge sums to financial institutions, while purchasing correspondingly huge amounts of government and possibly private securities.
    • CBDCs could also have implications for the state from seigniorage as the cost of printing, storing, transporting and distributing currency can be reduced.

    Conclusion

    Recent comments by RBI officials have focussed on the desirability of introducing CBDCs. But the path to a “Digital Rupee” is not clear.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Cyber Security – CERTs, Policy, etc

    Creating safe digital spaces

    op-ed snap | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Social Media Networks & Internal Security

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Creating safe digital spaces

    Context

    Various reports have indicated increased incidence of cyberbullying and online child sexual exploitation by adults.

    Tackling cyberbullying

    • School closures as a response to the COVID-19 lockdowns have led to an unprecedented rise in unsupervised screen time for children and young people, which in turn exposed them to a greater risk of online violence.
    • In India, an estimated 71 million children aged 5-11 years access the Internet on the devices of their family members, constituting about 14% of the country’s active Internet user base of over 500 million
    • There is growing scientific evidence which suggests that cyberbullying has negative consequences on the education, health and well-being of children and young people.
    • Published in 2019 and drawing on data from 144 countries, UNESCO’s report ‘Behind the numbers: Ending school violence and bullying’ highlighted the extent of the problem, with almost one in three students worldwide reporting being bullied at least once in the preceding month.
    • Therefore, cyberbullying prevention interventions should aim at tackling all types of bullying and victimisation experiences at the same time, as opposed to each in silo.

    Cyberbullying prevention interventions

    • Although online violence is not limited to school premises, the education system plays a crucial role in addressing online safety.
    • To prevent and counter cyberbullying, the information booklet brought out by UNESCO in partnership with NCERT on Safe Online Learning in Times of COVID-19 can be a useful reference.
    • Effective interventions also require gender-sensitive and targeted approaches that respond to needs of learners who are most likely to be the victims of online violence.
    • Concerted efforts must be made to provide children and young people with the knowledge and skills to identify online violence so that they can protect themselves from its different forms, whether perpetrated by peers or adults.
    • Teachers also play a critical role by teaching students about online safety, and thus supporting parental involvement.

    Conclusion

    It is imperative that digital and social media platforms are free of cyberbullying, if learners have to access quality education. More importantly, confidential reporting and redress services must be established.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Climate Change Negotiations – UNFCCC, COP, Other Conventions and Protocols

    Why Glasgow Climate Pact disappoints

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- COP26 achievements and disappointments

    Context

    The Glasgow Climate Pact was adopted on Saturday and, as was to be expected, it is a mixed bag of modest achievements and disappointed expectations.

    Transition away from fossil fuel

    • The Pact is the first clear recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels, though the focus was on giving up coal-based power altogether.
    • India introduced an amendment at the last moment to replace this phrase with “phase down” and this played negatively with both the advanced as well as a large constituency of developing countries.
    • This amendment reportedly came as a result of consultations among India, China, the UK and the US.
    • As the largest producer and consumer of coal and coal-based thermal power, it is understandable that China would prefer a gradual reduction rather than total elimination.
    • India may have had similar concerns.

    Recognition of Adaptation

    • There is a welcome recognition of the importance of Adaptation and there is a commitment to double the current finance available for this to developing countries.
    • Since this amount is currently only $15 billion, doubling will mean $ 30 billion.
    • This remains grossly inadequate.
    • According to UNEP, adaptation costs for developing countries are currently estimated at $70 billion annually and will rise to an estimated $130-300 billion annually by 2030.
    • A start is being made in formulating an adaptation plan and this puts the issue firmly on the Climate agenda, balancing the overwhelming focus hitherto on mitigation.

    Disappointment on the issue of finance

    • The Paris Agreement target of $100 billion per annum between 2005-2020 was never met with the shortfall being more than half, according to some calculations.
    • There is now a renewed commitment to delivering on this pledge in the 2020-2025 period and there is a promise of an enhanced flow thereafter.
    • But in a post-pandemic global economic slowdown, it is unlikely these promises will be met.
    • In any event, it is unlikely that India will get even a small slice of the pie.
    • The same applies to the issue of compensation for loss and damage for developing countries who have suffered as a result of climate change for which they have not been responsible.

    Initiatives on methane and deforestation

    • Two important plurilateral outcomes could potentially develop into more substantial measures.
    • The most important is an agreement among 100 countries to cut methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030.
    • India is not a part of this group.
    • Cutting methane emissions, which is generated mainly by livestock, is certainly useful but there is a much bigger methane emergency around the corner as the earth’s permafrost areas in Siberia, Greenland and the Arctic littoral begin to melt due to global warming that has already taken place and will continue to take place in the coming years.
    • Another group of 100 countries has agreed to begin to reverse deforestation by 2030.
    • India did not join the group due to concerns over a clause on possible trade measures related to forest products.

    Implications of US-China Joint Declaration on Climate Change for India

    • Declaration was a departure for China, which had held that bilateral cooperation on climate change could not be insulated from other aspects of their relations.
    • The declaration implies a shift in China’s hardline position.
    • It appears both countries are moving towards a less confrontational, more cooperative relationship overall.
    • This will have geopolitical implications, including for India, which may find its room for manoeuvre shrinking.

    Conclusion

    As in the past, the can has been kicked down the road, except that the climate road is fast approaching a dead-end. What provides a glimmer of light is the incredible and passionate advocacy of urgent action by young people across the world. This is putting enormous pressure on governments and leaders and if sustained, may become irresistible.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor