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Foreign Policy Watch: India-Myanmar

The soft approach: India-Myanmar

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations
Context
- On November 20-21, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra made a two-day visit to Myanmar. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in a press release stated that he met with members of the military junta that is currently ruling the country and discussed security and stability in the border areas, human trafficking issues (several Indian nationals have been victims), and infrastructure development.
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What are the interpretations over the foreign Secretary’s visit?
- Myanmar’s national portal says discussion on friendly relations: According to Myanmar National portal, the two sides held discussions on Myanmar-India friendly relations, exchanged views on the promotion of bilateral cooperation and the implementation of Myanmar’s peace process.
- India’s no mention of Myanmar’s return to democracy: The MEA statement made no mention of any Indian interest in seeing Myanmar return to the path of democracy or the release of political prisoners and other tricky issues.
- Emphasis on completing the ongoing projects: On the contrary, the foreign secretary spoke about continued Indian support for “people-centric socio-economic developmental projects” and early completion of connectivity projects including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway between India, Myanmar, and Thailand.
- Assured development Programs: It appears that infrastructure and developmental projects were a big emphasis during the visit because Kwatra also assured the Myanmar junta about projects under Rakhine State Development Program and Border Area Development Program.
- Contradictory omissions: Despite the MEA press release not mentioning it, the MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi tweeted that the foreign secretary had discussions on several important issues including “India’s support to democratic transition in Myanmar.”
Background of the different interpretations
- MEA’s 2021 statement that India’s interest in Myanmar’s return to democracy: Contrast this with the December 2021 statement that the MEA issued following then-Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s visit where he emphasized India’s interest in seeing Myanmar’s return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; and complete cessation of all violence.”
- India’s strong and consistent support to ASEAN: He had also reiterated that India’s strong and consistent support to the ASEAN initiative and expressed hope that progress would be made in a pragmatic and constructive manner, based on the five point consensus.
What are the India’s concerns?
- Human trafficking emerged as the major issue: Human trafficking has emerged as a major issue in Myanmar, with several criminal syndicates running a racket luring Indian citizens with fake job prospects. The MEA spokesperson, according to media reports, cautioned Indian nationals of being wary of trafficking. IT companies recruiting Indian workers in the pretext of jobs in Thailand, who were then taken to Myanmar. There have been reportedly close to 200 Indian nationals who have been duped into this job racket.
- China’s support to Military Junta: Since the military coup, China has improved on its good relations with the military junta, providing much-needed support for the Myanmar leadership in the face of international opprobrium.
- Chinas’ high investment in Myanmar: China reportedly has been a key source of foreign investment in Myanmar. China’s multiple projects include several high-speed railway lines and dams as well as a $2.5 billion investment in a gas-fired power plant. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which consists of oil and gas pipelines and infrastructure development projects run into billions of dollars.
- China’s aim to get better access to Indian ocean: Of particular interest to China is the deep sea port that China plans to develop at Kyaukphyu, on Myanmar’s west coast, this will possibly give China better access to the Indian Ocean, which China has been eyeing for a while.
- Budding relationship between Myanmar and Pakistan a cause of concern: According to media reports, Myanmar took the delivery of six JF-17 light-weight multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan in 2018 after signing a contract two years earlier in 2016. Myanmar was to get another batch of 10 aircraft although the date of delivery is unknown.
Rational behind India’s changed interest in Myanmar’s return to democracy
- Pragmatism on account of the growing presence and inroads of China in Myanmar has possibly pushed India to give up on its moralizing about democracy and increase its outreach to Naypyidaw.
- While the pro-democracy elements within Myanmar as well as India’s strategic partners in ASEAN may not be particularly pleased with this outreach, especially India dropping ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar, it appears that New Delhi sees itself as having not too many choices
Conclusion
- Strategic factors appear to be driving India’s greater engagement with the military junta, especially fear of China and Pakistan making inroads into the country. India has to maintain delicate balance while dealing with the ruling military junta.
Mains question

Q. In the backdrop of much speculations about the recent visit of India’s foreign secretary to Myanmar. Discuss India’s evolving position, which shows a soft approach towards the ruling military junta.

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G20 : Economic Cooperation ahead

The ‘Global South’ Narrative

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India
As India assumed the presidency of the G20 group of countries for 2022 to 2023, EAM S Jaishankar said on December 1 that India would be the voice of the Global South that is otherwise under-represented in such forums.

What is ‘Global South’?
- The term has since been used multiple times, such as when Jaishankar said of ongoing global conflicts, “polarisation may occur elsewhere, the people who suffer most are the Global South”.
- ‘Global North’ refers loosely to countries like the US, Canada, Europe, Russia, Australia and New Zealand, while ‘Global South’ includes countries in Asia, Africa and South America.
Behind the binary difference: ‘Global North’ and the ‘Global South’
- For a long time in the study of international political systems, the method of categorising countries into broad categories for easier analysis has existed.
- The concepts of ‘East’ and ‘West’ is one example of this, with the Western countries generally signifying greater levels of economic development and prosperity among their people.
- Eastern countries were considered as being in the process of that transition.
What are other such categorizations?
- Another similar categorisation is of First World, Second World and Third World countries.
- It referred to countries associated with the Cold war-era alliances of the US, the USSR, and non-aligned countries, respectively.
- The idea of the “third” world underlined that it was not only different from the “first” — the capitalist West — but also and the second — the socialist “East”.
Concept behind: World Systems Approach
- At the centre of these concepts is the World Systems approach introduced by sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein in 1974, emphasising an interconnected perspective of looking at world politics.
- He said there are three major zones of production: core, peripheral and semi-peripheral.
- The core zones reap profits, being the owners of cutting-edge technologies – countries like the US or Japan.
- Peripheral zones, on the other hand, engage in less sophisticated production that is more labour-intensive.
- In the middle are countries like India and Brazil.
Need for new terms

(1) Global shift of powers
- In the post-Cold War world, the First World/Third World classification was no longer feasible.
- This is because when the Communist USSR disintegrated in 1991, most countries had no choice but to ally at some level with the capitalist US – the only remaining global superpower.
(2) Monolithic classification
- The East/West binary was seen as often perpetuating stereotypical thinking about African and Asian countries.
- Categorising incredibly diverse countries into a monolith was felt to be too simplistic.
- Also, the idea that some countries were ‘developed’ while others were not was thought to be too wide a classification, inadequate for accurately discussing concerns.
(3) Issues with Developed vs. Developing
- Writing in 2014 from the perspective of his organisation’s philanthropic activities, Bill Gates said of the ‘developing’ tag.
- It found an irony that- any category that lumps China and the Democratic Republic of Congo together confuses more than it clarifies.
- Some so-called developing countries have come so far that it’s fair to say they have developed.
- A handful of failed states are hardly developing at all. Most countries are somewhere in the middle.
Emergence of Global South
- Colonial past: A big commonality between the South countries is that most have a history of colonization, largely at the hands of European powers.
- No say since de-colonization: Region’s historical exclusion from prominent international organizations – such as from the permanent membership of the UN is intriguing.
- Consciousness for decision-making: As bodies like the UN and the IMF are involved in major decision-making that affect the world in terms of politics, economy and society, the exclusion is seen by these countries as contributing to their slower growth.
- Economic emergence: China and India have emerged economically sound in the past two decades.
- Declining US hegemony: Many consider the world to now be multipolar rather than one where the US alone dominates international affairs.
- Climate reparations: In the ongoing debate adds Northern countries paying for funding green energy, having historically contributed to higher carbon emissions.
Criticism of the classification
- Only few players: South simply aims to replace the North and the positions it occupies, again continuing a cycle in which a few countries accumulate crucial resources.
- More of a India vs. China competition: Much controversy currently surrounds the question of whether elites of the global South and ‘rising powers’ genuinely have the intention to challenge the dominant structures of global capitalist development”.
- Anti-china motive: China’s tentative “going out” strategy at the turn of the century eventually morphed into the expansive Belt and Road Initiative.
Where does India stand?
- No further diplomatic groupism: EAM S Jaishankar India’s objective is not to rebuild a global trade union against the North.
- Bridging the divide: India is eager to become a bridge between the North and the South by focusing on practical outcomes rather than returning to old ideological battles.
Challenges
- Political consistency: In the past, India’s ideological enthusiasm for the Global South was not matched by material power and political will.
- Bridging the neighbours: India must also come to terms with the fact that the Global South is not a coherent group and does not have a single shared agenda.
- Despaired south: There is much differentiation within the South today in terms of wealth and power, needs and capabilities.
- Defiance from NAM: India’s Third World strategy (and Non-Aligned Movement) in the Cold War era was undermined by multiple internal and regional conflicts within the Global South.
Way ahead
- More engagement in neighborhood: Championing the Global South today would demand more active Indian engagement with the messy regional politics within the developing world.
- Political coherence: If India can translate this ambition into effective policy, there will be no contradiction between the simultaneous pursuit of universal and particular goals.
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Air Pollution

What is missing in Delhi’s breathing

op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia
Context
- Every year around Deepavali, and like clockwork, Delhi’s air quality makes it to the headlines. As firefighters we are doing well, but as planners doing very little. While nature will not change, emissions can be reduced. While a lot has been written and said about Delhi’s air quality, the question that still has to be answered is this: why is nothing changing after all these years?
Air pollution and its impact
- Air pollution a health crisis in making: Increasingly polluted air is a hazard and a health crisis in the making, in fact, it is already one.
- Air pollution related death in India: India now reports 2.5 million air pollution-related deaths annually.
- Air pollution not confined to external hazard: Pollution not only makes our throats and eyes burn but is much more insidious.
- Pollutants can enter bloodstreams: Some pollutants are so small that they are able to enter the bloodstream with ease, impacting almost every organ in the body and leading to the onset of health issues such as stroke, heart diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer, to name just a few serious health problems.
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Critique: Why is nothing changing after all these years?
- Applying same approach without through evaluation: A principal reason is that year after year, we are doing the same things to try and address the problem without actually trying to evaluate why those measures are not effective.
- Inefficiency of Commission for Air Quality Management: The Government formed the Commission for Air Quality Management, which, unfortunately, did not offer anything new. This body essentially issued the same orders the Ministry and the Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority used to, with just a slight change in the language used.
- Same advisory every year than the preventive measures: Every year schools are closed, people are advised to to stay indoors, or carpool and work from home, bans on firecrackers are reinforced, construction stopped, trucks and cars not allowed to enter the city, and industries running on fuel shut. These measures, and several others, are akin to dressing a bullet wound with band-aid.
Analysis: Is it only stubble burning is the culprit behind Delhi’s air pollution?
- Delhi’s bad air when stubble is not being burnt: Stubble burning in the neighbouring States being identified as the main culprit. However, the reality is that Delhi’s air is bad even when stubble is not being burnt.
- Burning of biomass in and around Delhi: The burning of biomass in and around Delhi, if audited properly, would be the same as stubble burning in other States. Unfortunately, none of the bodies, be it the municipal body or the government’s Public Works Department, is willing to take responsibility for this or address and find a solution to the problem.
- Less compliance on construction activities: Delhi chokes on its own dust and industrial activities. No clarity on how and who is ensuring compliance with the rules relating to the handling of construction and demolition waste.
- Heavy reliance on private Vehicles which is another major source of pollution: Vehicles are another source of pollution in the city. Despite an expanding fleet of public transport, citizens who primarily use two-wheelers have not moved to using the public transport system, buses and the metro. Reasons for this may include last-mile connectivity, the problem of crowding in buses and metros, and the inability to reach and navigate narrow lanes that two-wheelers can. The state of maintenance of buses could be another reason as well.
What needs to be done?
- Look beyond the measures that have already been tried: We have to be creative and look beyond the measures that have already been tried and proved they are at best a short-term solution to a recurring, long-term problem.
- Making efficient and coordinated governance mechanism: Core issue that needs to be addressed is the governance system. There needs to be a single entity that takes responsibility for air quality management. We cannot operate in silos where one system of governance is responsible for thinking, a second issues orders and a third is responsible for implementation. There need to be an efficient system that works in a coordinated way.
- Acknowledge the reality and not just taking the actions in the time of crisis: The reality also is that Delhi is not the sole offender. There are many other cities in India where safe levels of air quality are breached regularly. We need to take more comprehensive, long-term measures throughout the year and not just in the days and weeks when it begins to make news.
Conclusion
- This is not to say that stubble burning is not a problem. Some solutions have been tried out over the years, but with little success. Unless farmers are adequately compensated, the problem is unlikely to go away. What is required is a fundamental shift in agricultural patterns, and a strong political will to take bold decisions.
Mains question

Q. Do you agree with the statement that only stubble burning is the culprit behind Delhi’s air pollution?
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Global Implications

Price cap on Russia’s Oil and India’s contextual response

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests
Context
- Recently, G7 proposal to impose a price cap on Russian oil came into effect. The proposal, which took months to fructify, seeks to achieve a delicate balance how to starve the Russian state of oil revenues so as to financially cripple its war against Ukraine, but without causing supply disruptions in the global oil market which would cause prices to spiral. The move, however, risks fracturing the global crude oil market.
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What is Price cap on Russian oil?
- The $60 per barrel and denial of infrastructure services to Russian oil: The $60 per barrel cap is intended to cut Russia’s oil revenues while keeping Russian crude on the market by denying insurance, maritime services, and finance provided by the Western allies for tanker cargoes priced above a fixed dollar-per-barrel cap.
- Aim to hurt Russia’s oil revenue and create a pressure: The US-proposed cap aims to hurt Moscow’s finances while avoiding a sharp oil price spike if Russia’s oil is suddenly taken off the global market.
- Impact on shipping: Without insurance, tanker owners may be reluctant to take on Russian oil and face obstacles in delivering it.
Russian response to the price cap
- Russia refused to abide by the measure: Russia has said it will not observe a cap and will halt deliveries to countries that do.
- Retaliate by shutting off the shipments: It could retaliate by shutting off shipments in hopes of profiting from a sharply higher global oil price on whatever it can sell around the sanctions.
- Russia said price cap will not hurt financing the war: Russia recently said that the cap would not hurt the financing of its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
- Others buyers may bypass the restrictions putting countries interests first: Buyers in China and India might not go along with the cap, while Russia or China could try to set up their own insurance providers to replace those barred by US, UK and Europe. It is also possible that these countries will find creative ways to bypass the restrictions imposed by the G7.
How impacts global oil supply chain?
- Russian oil can now only be shipped using G7 countries infrastructure: Broadly speaking, Russian oil can now be shipped across the world using the infrastructure of the G7 countries tankers, insurers, etc only if it is sold at a price of $60 per barrel or less.
- Higher price for buying oil from Russia: This makes buying oil from Russia at a higher price in the week prior to this announcement, Urals crude was trading in the mid-$60s range a difficult proposition as most of the companies that offer shipping and insurance services are located in these G7 nations.
- Countries wish to buy are at disadvantage but still not higher than brent crude oil: While Russia has refused to abide by this measure, and the cap will place countries that do opt for buying oil from Russia at a price higher than $60 at a disadvantage, it will still be at a considerable discount compared to Brent crude oil which is currently trading at around $81 per barrel.
- Countries that continued trade despite of objections: So far, despite objections from western nations, countries like India and China have continued to trade with Russia.
India’s response and the bilateral trade with Russia
- India’s bilateral trade with Russia has surged to an all-time high: In fact, as reported in this paper, India’s bilateral trade with Russia has surged to an all-time high in the first five months of the year (April-August).
- India putting its interests first and taking advantage of discounted price: Putting its interests first, India has raised its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of the discounts being offered the country which used to import less than 1 per cent of its import requirement from Russia, now imports around a fifth from it.
- As India is an oil importer, the trade at discounted price will give some relief in current account deficit and economic stability: After all, for an oil importer like India, which meets an overwhelming share of its requirements through imports, lower crude oil prices will moderate the price pressures in the economy and bring relief to the current account deficit, easing risks to macroeconomic stability.
- India rejected the so-called moral duty: India has rejected any “moral” duty to join the price cap coalition.
Conclusion
- Attempts to use trade as a weapon will only distort the global market and hurt energy-poor consumers not responsible for the war. India’s response so far to the West’s retaliation against Russia for the war in Ukraine has been guided by its sovereign interests. This must continue to be the guiding principle.
Mains Question

Q. G7 recently imposed a price cap on Russian oil driven by US and west. In light of this Discuss how it disrupt the global oil supply chain and how India is responding?

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Nuclear Diplomacy and Disarmament

China reiterates ‘No First Use’ Nuke Policy

IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India
China responded to a US report alleging a major build-up in Beijing’s nuclear capabilities. It said, it adheres to its policy of no first use of nuclear weapons.

What is the news?
- The Pentagon released an annual China security report that warned Beijing would likely have 1,500 nuclear.
- China currently has 350 nuclear warheads.
- As of 2022, Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads compared to 5,428 in the US inventory.
What is ‘No First Use’ Doctrine?
- In nuclear ethics and deterrence theory, NFU is a commitment to never use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances, whether as a pre-emptive attack or first strike, or in response to non-nuclear attack of any kind.
Where do nuclear-armed countries stand on No First Use?
- China is the only nuclear-armed country to have an unconditional NFU policy.
- India maintains a policy of NFU with exceptions for a response to chemical or biological attacks.
- France, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the UK and the US maintain policies that permit the first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict.
- Israel does not acknowledge the existence of its nuclear arsenal so has no publicly known position.
Why advocate for global NFU commitments now?
- The world after US bombing of Japan has never faced any crises that could escalate to nuclear conflict.
- In addition to the precarious situation on the Korean peninsula, we’re running acceptably high risks of nuclear weapons use between-
1. NATO and Russia: Amid ongoing Ukrainian Invasion
2. India and Pakistan: Jihadist acquiring nuclear weapons
3. US and China: Due to provocations over the South China Sea and Taiwan
- In fact right now the chances that nuclear weapons will be used — intentionally, accidentally, or due to miscalculation — are the highest they’ve been since the worst days of the Cold War.
- Establishing global NFU would immediately make the world safer by resolving uncertainty about what a nuclear-armed country might do in a crisis.
- It removes pressure and incentive for any one country to “go nuclear” first in a crisis and thus create a moral obligation on others.
Consequences of nuclear war
- Any use of a nuclear weapon would invite massive retaliation.
- Not to mention the horrific aftermath of nuclear war.
- A 2014 study shows that so-called “limited” nuclear war in South Asia, in which 100 nuclear weapons are used, would have global consequences.
- Millions of tons of smoke would be sent into the atmosphere, plunging temperatures and damaging the global food supply.
- Two billion people would be at risk of death by starvation.
What lies ahead?
- Global No First Use would be an important step toward making nuclear weapons irrelevant to national security.
- These policies would strip nuclear weapons of value in the eyes of military planners, enable future nuclear disarmament negotiations, and accelerate the dismantling of these weapons.
- It would also serve as a “confidence-building measure” that establishes greater trust among nuclear-armed countries.
- It thus makes it easier to work together to reduce nuclear risks and ultimately eliminate all nuclear weapons.
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Child Rights – POSCO, Child Labour Laws, NAPC, etc.

Pendency falls in the Child Adoption cases

Prelims Only | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Laws, Institutions & Bodies Constituted For The Vulnerable Sections
The pendency in the adoption of children has come down to 644 from 905 over the last two months since the new Adoption Regulations were notified.

What is the news?
- The Rules for the adoption of the Juvenile Justice Act were notified in September this year.
Adoption Regulations, 2022
- The new rules empower District Magistrates to issue adoption orders.
- Earlier, this power was exercised by the judiciary.
- Changes have also been made to the Child Adoption Resource Information and Guidance System (CARINGS) online platform for adoption.
- In accordance with the new rules, prospective adoptive parents can now opt from their home State or region.
- This has been mandated to ensure that the child and the family adjust well with each other, belonging to the same socio-cultural milieu.
Adoption in India: A backgrounder
- In 2015, the then Minister for Women and Child Development centralised the entire adoption system by empowering Central Adoption Resource Authority (CARA).
- CARA is an autonomous and statutory body of Ministry of Women and Child Development set up in 2015.
- It was empowered to maintain in various specialised adoption agencies, a registry of children, prospective adoptive parents as well as match them before adoption.
- This was aimed at checking rampant corruption and trafficking as child care institutions and NGOs could directly give children for adoption after obtaining a no-objection certificate from CARA.
Why is there concern over the revised rules?
- Parents, activists, lawyers and adoption agencies will have to be transferred and the process will have to start afresh.
- A delay in such an order can often mean that a child can’t get admission into a school because parents don’t yet have a birth certificate.
- Parents and lawyers also state that neither judges, nor DMs are aware about the change in the JJ Act leading to confusion in the system and delays.
- DMs don’t handle civil matters that bestow inheritance and succession rights on a child.
- If these rights are contested when a child turns 18, a judicial order is far more tenable to ensure the child is not deprived of his or her entitlements.
Is it such a big issue?
- The Central Adoption Resource Authority (CARA) says there are nearly 1,000 adoption cases pending before various courts in the country.
- This is not such a huge burden.
What is the adoption procedure in India?
- Adoptions in India are governed by two laws:
1. Hindu Adoption and Maintenance Act, 1956 (HAMA): It is a parent-centric law that provides son to the son-less for reasons of succession, inheritance, continuance of family name and for funeral rights and later adoption of daughters was incorporated because kanyadaan is considered an important part of dharma in Hindu tradition.
2. Juvenile Justice Act, 2015: It handles issues of children in conflict with law as well as those who are in need of care and protection and only has a small chapter on adoptions.
- Both laws have their separate eligibility criteria for adoptive parents.
- Those applying under the JJ Act have to register on CARA’s portal after which a specialised adoption agency carries out a home study report.
- After it finds the candidate eligible for adoption, a child declared legally free for adoption is referred to the applicant.
- Under HAMA, a “dattaka hom” ceremony or an adoption deed or a court order is sufficient to obtain irrevocable adoption rights.
Issues with child adoption in India
- Parent-centrism: The current adoption approach is very parent-centred, but parents must make it child-centred.
- Age of child: Most Indian parents also want a child between the ages of zero and two, believing that this is when the parent-child bond is formed.
- Institutional issues: Because the ratio of abandoned children to children in institutionalised care is lopsided, there are not enough children available for adoption.
- Lineage discrimination: Most Indians have a distorted view of adoption because they want their genes, blood, and lineage to be passed down to their children.
- Red-tapism: Child adoption is also not so easy task after the Juvenile Justice Rules of 2016 and the Adoption Regulations of 2017 were launched.
Practical issues in adoption
- There are no rules for monitoring adoptions and verifying sourcing of children and determining whether parents are fit to adopt.
- There are many problems with the adoption system under CARA but at the heart of it is the fact that there are very few children in its registry.
- According to the latest figures there are only 2,188 children in the adoption pool, while there are more than 31,000 parents waiting to adopt a child.
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WTO and India

What is Goods Trade Barometer?

Prelims Only | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy
The World Trade Organization’s Goods Trade Barometer says the global economy, hit by strong headwinds and weakening import demand, may see trade growth slowdown in the closing months of 2022 and into 2023.

What is Goods Trade Barometer?
- The Goods Trade Barometer was developed by the WTO to complement conventional trade statistics and forecasts.
- It is the world’s leading composite indicator that highlights the turning points in the global merchandise trade and provides forecasts of its likely trajectory in the near future.
- It is released on a quarterly basis based on the availability of data.
- It provides real-time data on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to the current trends.
- Values higher than 100 indicates above-trend growth and the values less than 100 indicates below-trend growth.
Key trends
- In its recent release, it said trade growth is likely to slow down in 2022 and into 2023.
- Reflecting a cooling demand for traded goods based on actual trade developments through the second quarter of 2022, the current reading of 96.2 is below the baseline value index and the prior reading of 100.0.
- The downturn in the goods barometer is in line with the earlier forecast which predicted a merchandise trade volume growth of 3.5% in 2022 and a revised lower estimate of 1% for 2023.
Impact on India’s trade balance
- With a likely fall in export earnings, and no decrease in imports of essential items like crude oil and capital goods, India’s trade deficit is set to widen.
- The projection is that the country’s current account trade deficit is expected to be around 3% of GDP for FY23.
- Foreign exchange reserves which have already depleted by over $100 billion over the last year are likely to shrink further.
What does a slowdown mean for India?
- India is not an export-led economy. In FY22, 21.5% of Indian GDP depended on exports.
- However, in view of the poor performance of the country’s major market destinations such as the US and China, Indian exports are bound to suffer.
- During the subprime crisis which engulfed the entire world, India’s export-oriented sectors had to pay the price though the economy was to a large extent insulated due to a vibrant rural sector.
- But currently rural India is not in a strong position unlike in 2008-09.
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Minority Issues – SC, ST, Dalits, OBC, Reservations, etc.

Analyzing the Reservation system and the EWS

op-ed snap | Polity | : Laws, Institutions & Bodies Constituted For The Vulnerable Sections
Context
- Reservation was introduced as a short-term measure to give opportunities to classes of people who were socially and educationally backward and/or inadequately represented in education, employment, politics and other spheres. The intent was laudable. Reservation has increased the standard of life for many. But what was supposed to be a short-term measure got extended due to various political and sociological compulsions.
What is the idea of reservation?
- Based on historical injustice: Reservation is intrinsically linked to the historical injustice meted out to Shudras and Dalits.
- Reservation for egalitarian society: It was during the anti-caste movement that the idea of reservation came up as a way for an egalitarian social order, to ensure fair representation in the socio-political order, and to mitigate and compensate for the inhuman exclusion of humans based on ascriptive status.
- Equal participation in nation building: Reservation is implemented in politics, education and public employment so that all those in the hierarchy can participate in nation-building on equal terms.
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Is the reservation system successful in eliminating the cause?
- Cannot claim it successful: Even after seven decades of reservation, we are not able to claim success in eliminating the cause that required reservation in the first place.
- successive governments kept extending in a hope of a different outcome: In our personal lives and careers, if a solution to a problem doesn’t give the expected result within a reasonable time frame, we reconsider the solution and try to improve it. However, successive governments kept extending the reservation system, hoping for a different outcome.
- Reservation system being used as a self-perpetuating mechanism: People who benefited from reservation wanted the system to continue for successive generations too. It was clear that the reservation system was being used by them as a self-perpetuating mechanism.
- Those who really need are deprived: Since the reservation is used as perpetuating mechanism, those who really needed reservation were deprived of its benefits.
Analysis over the outcomes of reservation system and the rising silent demands
- Background, at the time of Independence and the family professions: At the time of Independence, the economy was primarily agrarian and based on traditional commerce. People were largely unskilled. They continued engaging in the professions that their family had practiced for generations.
- Profession changed from caste-based to skill-based: Free school education and industrialization helped people learn new skills, which gave them scope to migrate to greener pastures. As cities became cosmopolitan, the class divide became a thing of the past. Employment in the industrial sector became largely skill-based rather than caste-based.
- Social and educational backwardness go hand-in-hand with economic weakness: More than 70 years of reservation has brought economic prosperity to a large section of people and given them adequate representation.
- Befitted should make a way for others and to completely oppose the demands: Ideally, families that have been brought above the poverty line through adequate employment opportunities and other benefits should make way for others who are less fortunate; instead, they oppose extending the system to the economically weaker sections (EWS) of society only because some of the beneficiaries could be from the so-called ‘forward’ communities.
- Caste system becoming less prevalent in today’s technology cum information age: The cause for social inequality and oppression was somewhat wrongly attributed to a particular faith and the practice of caste system prevalent in those days. In this technology-cum-information age, the surging middle class population makes the caste system less prevalent.
- Economic prosperity helps to neutralise the social injustice: The economic prosperity seen today has neutralised to a large extent the very reason for social injustice the class disparity.
- The reservation is still kept alive: However, the caste and reservation system are still being kept alive only so that political parties and those who have benefited from the system so far can continue to milk it.
What are the Misconceptions clarification and the judgement over EWS
- Misunderstanding that the basic structure of the constitution may violet: Most objections to this come from a misunderstanding that the basic structure of the Constitution has been violated by the EWS amendment, which seeks to empower the privileged sections of society who are neither socially and educationally backward nor inadequately represented.
- Misconception that it will reduce the availability of seats: Another misconception is that the 10% quota in the open category in favour of ‘forward’ communities reduces the availability of seats in the open category for other classes and communities.
- What the government clarified: The government has clarified that this 10% is in addition to the existing reservation in favour of SEBCs. This means it does not in any way affect reservation up to 50% for SEBCs, OBCs, SCs and STs.
- The egalitarian judgement: The judgment that sets the basis for this 10% quota said, “If an egalitarian socio-economic order is the goal, the deprivations arising from economic disadvantages, including those of discrimination and exclusion, need to be addressed to by the State; and for that matter, every affirmative action has the sanction of our Constitution.”
Conclusion
- The government has a constitutional and moral duty to achieve the goal of “social, economic and political justice,” mentioned in the Preamble. The 10% quota for the EWS aims to correct an anomaly in the system that is depriving deserving and qualified people. We need to accept that reservation on the basis of economic criteria is the need of the hour and the stepping stone to achieving economic and social justice.
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Police Reforms – SC directives, NPC, other committees reports

There should be uniformity in the rules for granting parole

op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Civil Service
Context
- There was a huge uproar in the media when Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, a convict serving a 20-year prison sentence for raping two disciples, was seen organising an online ‘satsang’ while on a 40-day parole in October. On the other hand, S. Nalini, a convict in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case, who was serving life imprisonment, was given several extensions of parole from December 2021 until her release. Lack of uniformity in parole rules does not bode well for the criminal justice system.
What is Parole and furlough?
- Short term release: Furlough and parole envisage a short-term release from custody, both aimed as reformative steps towards prisoners.
- Not a Right but a case of Specific exigency: Parole is granted to meet a “specific exigency” and cannot be claimed as a matter of right.
- Circumstances considered: Both provisions are subject to the circumstances of the prisoner, such as jail behaviour, the gravity of offences, sentence period and public interest.
Is there any specific provision pertaining to parole and/or furlough?
- No specific provision: The Prisons Act, 1894, and the Prisoners Act, 1900, did not contain any specific provision pertaining to parole and/or furlough.
- State are empowered to make such rules: Section 59 of the Prisons Act empowers States to make rules inter alia “for the shortening of sentences” and “for rewards for good conduct”.
You must know
- Since “prisons, reformatories” fall in the State List of the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution, States are well within their reach to legislate on issues related to prisons.
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Parole rules are different for different states and on different case
- Suspension of sentence in Uttar Pradesh: The Uttar Pradesh rules provide for the ‘suspension of sentence’ (without mentioning the term parole or furlough or leave) by the government generally up to one month. However, the period of suspension may exceed even 12 months with prior approval of the Governor.
- Maharashtra rules: Maharashtra’s rules permit release of a convict on ‘furlough’ for 21 or 28 days (depending upon the term of sentence), on ‘emergency parole’ for 14 days, and on ‘regular parole’ for 45 to 60 days.
- Revised rules in Haryana: The recently revised rules of Haryana (April 2022) permit ‘regular parole’ to a convict up to 10 weeks (in two parts), ‘furlough’ for three to four weeks in a calendar year, and ‘emergency parole’ up to four weeks. Ram Rahim is on his regular parole.
- Rules of leaves and its extension in Tamin Nadu and the Nalini case: Though the Tamil Nadu rules of 1982 permit ‘ordinary leave’ for a period of 21 to 40 days, ‘emergency leave’ is permitted up to 15 days (to be spread over four spells). However, in exceptional circumstances, the government may extend the period of emergency leave. Till recently, Nalini was on extended emergency leave owing to her mother’s illness.
- Unlike TN, rules in Andhra Pradesh prohibit extension: Surprisingly, the Andhra Pradesh rules specifically prohibit such extension (Nalini extension) on account of the continued illness of a relative of a prisoner. They permit ‘furlough’ and parole/emergency leave up to two weeks, except that the government may extend parole/emergency leave in special circumstances.
- Odisha: Similarly, Odisha rules permit ‘furlough’ for up to four weeks, ‘parole leave’ up to 30 days and ‘special leave’ up to 12 days.
- West Bengal: West Bengal provides for releasing a convict on ‘parole’ for a maximum period of one month and up to five days in case of any ‘emergency’.
- Kerala: Kerala provides for 60 days of ‘ordinary leave’ in four spells, and up to 15 days ‘emergency leave’ at a time.
Provision of ‘Custody parole’
- Custody parole: Release of a prisoner, who is ineligible for a leave under the police escort for some hours for extreme emergency cases.
- Custody parole In Haryana: A hardcore convict, who is ineligible for any parole or furlough, may be released for attending the funeral or marriage of a close relative under police escort for a period not exceeding six hours. Haryana has a long list of ‘hardcore’ prisoners who are not entitled to be released except on ‘custody parole’ under certain conditions.
- In Tamil Nadu: In Tamil Nadu, police escort is given to a prisoner who is released on emergency leave and is dangerous to the community.
- Kerala: Similarly, in Kerala, prisoners who are not eligible for emergency leave may be granted permission for visit under police escort for a maximum period of 24 hours.
- States that do not permit such provision: Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Kerala and West Bengal do not permit release of habitual criminals and convicts, who are dangerous to society, under Sections 392 to 402 of the Indian Penal Code.
The rules of set by the states vary in scope and content
- Furlough is as incentive: While ‘furlough’ is considered as an incentive for good conduct in prison and is counted as a sentence served.
- Parole: parole or leave is mostly a suspension of sentence. Emergency parole or leave is granted for specified emergencies such as a death, serious illness or marriage in the family. While most States consider only close relatives such as spouse, parents, son, daughter, brother and sister as close family, Kerala has a long list of more than 24 relatives in case of death and 10 in case of marriage.
- Different circumstances in different states: Though regular parole or leave is granted after serving minimum sentence (varying from one year to four years) in prison, some States include other familial and social obligations such as sowing or harvesting of agricultural crops, essential repair of house, and settling family disputes. In Kerala, a convict becomes eligible for ordinary leave after serving one-third of a year in prison if he is sentenced for one year.
- Concern raised: Despite the fact that temporary release cannot be availed of as a matter of right, the above provisions demonstrate that each State has its own set of rules which not only vary in scope and content, but may also be flouted to give favours to a few.
Conclusion
- Without any common legal framework in place to guide the States and check misuse, arbitrariness is likely to creep in, endangering the entire criminal justice system. With ‘prisons’ in the State List, this task is not feasible unless at least half of the States come together to request the Central government to legislate a common law for the country on parole and furlough.
Mains question

Q. What is parole or furlough? The entire criminal justice system in the country is in jeopardy due to lack of uniformity in rules. Discuss.

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Climate Change Negotiations – UNFCCC, COP, Other Conventions and Protocols

Shortcomings in the climate justice negotiations

op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 1: Important Geophysical Phenomena
Context
- In the climate negotiations, areas of interest to developing countries are not covered or sparsely covered, while other areas are over-regulated. Equitable sustainable development is not even discussed. At COP27, the policy debate was no longer legitimized by science.
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Problems with the current negotiating process
- Developed countries’ national emissions of C02 from consumption: citizens in developed countries are not even aware that two-thirds of their national emissions of carbon dioxide come from their diet, transport, and residential and commercial sectors, which together constitute the major share of their GDP; the consumption sectors are not independent silos but reflect their urban lifestyles.
- Ignores urbanization and requirement of fossil fuels for developing countries: the process ignores that global well-being will also follow urbanisation of the developing country’s population, requiring fossil fuels for infrastructure and energy to achieve comparable levels.
- Requirement of Infrastructure development in developing countries: the need for vast quantities of cement and steel in developing countries for infrastructure, constituting essential emissions, as they urbanise, is not being considered.
Discussion missing on developing countries to pace up decarbonization
- Late urbanization: As late urbanisers, developing countries account for more than half the annual emissions and most emissions growth.
- Cannot afford new technologies: They cannot affordably access many of the new technologies to decarbonise quickly.
- Not having a comparable level playing field: The result is a shrinking of their policy space and human rights, endangering efforts to achieve comparable levels of well-being with those who developed earlier without any constraints.
Why the foundation of the Climate Treaty in international environmental law is questionable?
- US interpretation in Stockholm Conference on the Environment (1972): In the run-up to the Stockholm Conference, the United States Secretary of States stated that “urbanization has changed the nation with seventy five percent of its people living in the urban area. we must see ourselves not only as victims of environmental degradation but as environmental aggressors and change our patterns of consumption and production accordingly”.
- Conclusion by scientific committee set up by the US: A scientific committee concluded that “long range planning to cope with global environmental problems must take account of the total ecological burden, controlling that burden by systematic reduction in per-capita production of goods and services would be politically unacceptable. A concerted effort is needed to orient technology toward making human demands upon the environment less severe”.
- Power play on risk management but not on the technology transfer: Power play framed natural resource use around risk management rather than technology transfer and the well-being of all within ecological limits.
Why climate negotiations are seen as Differentiated common responsibility?
- Missing the objective: The objective of the Climate Treaty is to avoid a concentration of cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide, prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system and enable sustainable economic development.
- Climate agreements and initiatives: The Paris Agreement (2015) agreed to a 1.5°C global temperature goal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2018 recommended that net emissions needed to zero out around 2050. In Glasgow, in 2021, negotiators zeroed in on coal to reduce future emissions.
- Ignored the key findings of the IPCC report: This initiative was not based on science and it ignored the key finding of the IPCC on the centrality of the carbon budget, i.e., cumulative emissions associated with a specific amount of global warming that scientifically links the temperature goal to national action.
- Carbon budget and the developing countries: Carbon budgets are robust as they can be estimated accurately from climate models. And, they are the most useful for policy as they couple the climate to the economy consistent with the science of both. The IPCC, in 2018, estimated the budget for a 50% chance of avoiding more than 1.5°C of warming to be 2,890 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (now, it is less than 400bn tonnes), raising the question on how late developers will attain comparable levels of wellbeing.
Shortcomings in Climate justice
- Climate injustice flows from the negotiations and not from the text of the Climate Treaty.
- Rejected historical responsibility and shifted the burden: The process adopted the structure of international law in a manner that rejected historical responsibility for a continuing problem, and steadily shifted the burden to China and India.
- The flaw in set agenda: The agenda was set around globalised material flows described as global warming (the symptom), and not wasteful use of energy.
- Public finance is not materialised for actual objective: Public finance is used as a means to secure a political objective, and not to solve the problem itself. The $100 billion promised at Paris along with pre-2020 commitments constituting the incentive for developing countries to agree to a global temperature goal has not materialised. And, new funding for ‘Loss and Damage’ will be from a “mosaic of solutions”, constituting a breach of trust.
- Longer term trend has been ignored: With one-sixth of the global population, the developed country share in 2035 will still be 30%. Asia’s emissions with half the world’s population will rise to 40% remaining within its carbon budget. Pressures to further reduce emissions displace their human rights.
Conclusion
- India’s thrust on LiFE (or “Lifestyle for Environment”), with the individual shifting from wasteful consumption of natural resources goes back to the original science. Consumption-based framing challenges the ‘universalism’ that has dominated the negotiations and its common path of reductions based on single models. The carbon budget formalizes a ‘diversity’ of solutions. For example, in developed countries, exchanging overconsumption of red meat for poultry can meet half the global emissions reduction required by the end of the century.
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