The Galwan incident marked the new low in the India-China relations. Following it, there have been talks of a closer alliance with the U.S. This article analyses the utility, potential and the limitations of this approach.

Exploring the strategic options

• As the border stand-off with China deepens, India will have to think of all possible strategic options that gives it leverage.
• One of the options is new arrangements with other powers.
• This is the right moment to mobilise international opinion on China.
• But can this be translated into concerted global action to exert real pressure on China?

Things India should consider while forming alliance with the US

• International relations are formed in the context of a country’s development paradigm.
• India’s primary aim should be to preserve the maximum space for its development model, if it can actually formulate one.
• India is not unique in this respect.
•  The question for India is not just whether the US has a stake in India’s development, which it might.
• But it is, rather, to ask whether India’s development needs will fit into the emerging US development paradigm.
• Will the very same political economy forces that create a disengagement with China also come in the way of a closer relationship with India?
• Some sections of American big business might favour India.
• But the underlying political economy dynamics in the US are less favourable.
• Will the US give India the room it needs on trade, intellectual property, regulation, agriculture, labour mobility, the very areas where freedom is vital for India’s economy?
• Will a US hell-bent on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, easily gel with an “atma nirbhar” Bharat?
• To see what is at stake, we just need to look how the development paradigm is driving tensions on trade, taxation and regulatory issues between the US and EU.

Why India avoided alignment with the US in the past

•  But the drivers of this have often been legitimate differences over development, including climate change.
• It has also been that, at various points, that alignment was against India’s other strategic commitments.
• India was wise to stay out of the war in Iraq, it was wise not to upset Russia.
• It is wise not to throw its weight behind the US’s Iran policy.
• There is more maturity in the US to understand India’s position.

Global reluctance in collective action against China

• It is an odd moment in global affairs, where there is recognition of a common challenge emanating from China.
• But there is no global appetite to take concerted action.
• An interesting example might be the global response to the BRI.
• Many countries are struggling to meet their BRI debt obligations.
• But it is difficult to see the rest of the international community helping all these countries to wean their regimes away from dependence on Chinese finance.
• Similarly, there are now great concerns over frontier areas of conflict like cyber security and space.
• It is difficult to imagine concerted global action to create rules in these area, partly because Great Powers like the US and Russia will always want to maintain their exceptionalism.

Limitations of global alliance and public opinion in solving local conflicts

• 1) The international community has not been very effective in neutralising
•  exercised by some powers.
• This is the tactic Pakistan has used.
• 2) Don’t count on the fact that the world will support an Indian escalation beyond a point.
• The efforts of the international community, in the final analysis, will be to try and throw cold water on the conflict.
• No one has a serious stake in the fate of the terrain India and China are disputing.
• At the end of the day, India has to manage China and Pakistan largely on its own.

Conclusion

Even as we deal with the military situation on the border, the test of India’s resolve will be its ability to return to some first principle thinking about its own power.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now

The LAC has been exploited by China as leverage against India. And failure on our part to understand long-term strategic aims and objective of China makes the problem hard to solve. This article suggests a three-pronged approach to deal with China.

Incomprehension of aims and objectives

•  There is incomprehension among our decision-makers of the long-term strategic aims and objectives that underpin China’s belligerent conduct.
• We have not devoted adequate intellectual capital, intelligence resources and political attention to acquisition of a clear insight into China and its motivations.
• Even when intelligence is available, analysis and dissemination have fallen short.

What China’s Defence White Papers suggest

• These thematic public documents articulate China’s national security aims, objectives and vital interests and also address the “ends-ways-means” issues related to its armed forces.
• The 11 DWPs issued so far are a model of clarity and vision, and provide many clues to current developments.
• No Indian government since Independence has deemed it necessary to issue a defence white paper, order a defence review or publish a national security strategy.
• Had we done so, it may have prepared us for the unexpected and brought order and alacrity to our crisis-response.

China uses LAC as strategic leverage

• In order to show India its place, China had administered it a “lesson” in 1962.
• And it may, perhaps, be contemplating another one in 2020, with the objective of preventing the rise of a peer competitor.
• For China, the line of actual control or LAC, representing an unsettled border, provides strategic leverage.
• Leverage it can use to keep India on tenterhooks about its next move while repeatedly exposing the latter’s vulnerabilities.

1993 Agreement didn’t benefit India

• Our diplomats derive considerable satisfaction from the 1993 Border Peace & Tranquility Agreement.
• This agreement, according to former foreign secretary, Shivshankar Menon, “…effectively delinked settlement of the boundary from the rest of the relationship”.
• But by failing to use available leverage for 27 years, and not insisting on bilateral exchange of LAC maps, we have created a ticking time-bomb, with the trigger in China’s hands.
• While “disengagement” may soon take place between troops in contact, it is most unlikely that the PLA will pull back or vacate any occupied position in Ladakh or elsewhere.
• In which case, India needs to consider a three-pronged strategy.

What should be India’s three-pronged strategy?

1. Reinforce at ground level

• At the ground-level, we need to visibly reinforce our positions, and move forward to the LAC all along.
• We should enhance the operational-tempo of the three services as a measure of deterrence.
• Indian warships should show heightened presence at the Indian Ocean choke-points.
• Cyber emergency response teams country-wide should remain on high alert.
• We should build-up stocks of weapons, ammunition and spares.
• The Ministry of Defence should seize this opportunity to urgently launch some long-term “atma-nirbharta” schemes in defence-production.

2. At strategic level: Modus vivendi

• At the strategic level, the government should consider sustained process of engagement with China at the highest politico-diplomatic echelons.
• The negotiations should seek multi-dimensional Sino-Indian modus-vivendi; encompassing the full gamut of bilateral issues like trade, territorial disputes, border-management and security.
• Simultaneously, at the grand-strategic level, India should initiate a dialogue for the formation of an “Indo-Pacific Concord for Peace and Tranquility”.
• This Concord should involve inviting four members of the Quad as well as Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia.

3. Political pragmatism

• As a nation, we need to be pragmatic enough to realise that neither conquest nor re-conquest of territory is possible in the 21st century.
• Parliament should, now, resolve to ask the government, “to establish stable, viable and peaceful national boundaries”.

Consider the question “With changing relations with China, India needs to overhaul its strategy on the ground, strategic and political levels in dealing with China”

Conclusion

This three-pronged approach while comprehending the Chines objectives and goals can help India in dealing successfully with the challenge posed by China.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now

This article calibrates the changes our future engagement with China will experience following the Galwan incident. The first casualty has been the trust between the two countries. And next could be strategic communications between the two countries. So, India’s response to the incident should be based on these changes.

What explains China’s aggression

• Hubris, internal insecurities in China, the COVID-19 pandemic and the complex and confused external environment explains it.
• Challenge posed by India from the ideological, strategic and economic points of view can be the other factor.

Violation of many agreements

• China’s recent military actions in Ladakh clearly violate the signed agreements of 1993, 1996, 2005, etc on maintaining peace and tranquillity along the LAC.
• These actions are in violation also of other signed agreements, including at the highest level.
• It also contradict positions taken by Xi himself at the informal Wuhan and Chennai summits in 2018 and 2019.
• In 2003, two countries signed a Declaration on Principles for Relations and Constructive Cooperation between our two countries.
• The third principle states: “The two countries are not a threat to each other. Neither side shall use or threaten to use force against the other.”
•  This was more than reiterated in the agreement signed in April 2005 on the Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for settlement of the India China boundary question.
• . Article 1 states, inter alia: “Neither side shall use or threaten to use force against the other by any means.”

Doklam and informal summits

• .A qualitative change though occurred in Chinese perceptions after the Doklam face-off.
• That necessitated the first informal summit at Wuhan in April 2018.
• One important outcome of that summit was the agreement to continue to meet at the highest level and to enhance trust and strengthen strategic communication.
• The second informal summit took place between Xi and Narendra Modi in Chennai in October 2019.
• It was in the aftermath of the revocation of Article 370 by India and China’s unnecessary and unsuccessful attempt to raise the issue in the UN Security Council.
• By then, many other developments — both internal and external — had added pressure on China.
• At Chennai, the Chinese undoubtedly drew some red lines.

Which red lines does China feel India has crossed

• One fundamental red line is China’s long-held and strategic interest in parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
• Jammu and Kashmir border Xinjiang and Tibet and allow connectivity between the two.
• It is wrongly argued that it is Pakistan that is the issue in J&K.
• China is as big an issue but has quietly hidden behind Pakistan’s cover.
• That is no longer feasible as democratic India becomes economically and otherwise stronger.

Future of Special Representative process

• The Special Representatives process to address the boundary question seems stalemated and its usefulness needs review.
• The 2005 agreement contains the necessary parameters for a boundary settlement but there is obviously not adequate common ground.
• Some positivity can, however, be brought in if the LAC clarification process is revived and completed in a time-bound manner.
• But this is easier said than done in the prevailing circumstances.
• Patrolling procedures will need to be revised, preferably by mutual agreement.

Unsustainable economic partnership

• The current nature of the economic partnership between India and China is not sustainable.
• India’s annual trade deficit with China in recent years virtually finances a CPEC a year!
• China has still not fulfilled all its commitments to India on joining the WTO in 2001.

What should be our trade policy

• Indian business and industry must stop taking the easy option.
• Some costs will no doubt go up but there can be environmental advantages of switching to other sources of technology and equipment.
• There is more than one available source of financial investments in Indian ventures.

What will be the nature of bilateral dialogue

• Bilateral dialogue mechanisms will continue their desultory course.
• On issues of interest to India such as terrorism, we get no support from China.
• Cooperation on river waters has not evolved.
• On the global agenda, on issues such as climate change, dialogue and cooperation will continue in multilateral fora depending on mutual interest.

What should be the nature of governments response

• The response to China’s recent actions in Ladakh must be an all-of-government one, indeed an all-India one.
• It should be covering all sectors including heightened security and be coordinated, consistent.
• This is not a question of nationalism or patriotism but of self-esteem and self-respect.

Consider the question “What should be the basis of India’s evolving policy response to China’s new approach to the border dispute?”

Conclusion

Bilateral relations between India and China cannot progress unless there is peace on the borders and China recognises that India too has non-negotiable core concerns, aspirations and interests.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now

This article tracks the faultline in India’s China policy that makes it an enduring tragedy. China never bought into India’s narratives of Asian unity and untied Asian front against the West. Instead, China cultivated its relations with the West and leveraged that for furthering its interests.

Enduring tragedy: India’s China policy

• That tragedy is rooted in persistent political fantasies.
• Refusal to learn from past mistakes.
• And the belief that the US and the West are at the source of India’s problems with China.
• The problem predates independence.
• Each generation has been reluctant to discard the illusions that India’s China policy has nurtured over the last century.

Historical background

•  Tagore went to China in 1924 with the ambition of developing a shared Asian spiritual civilisation.
• He was accused by Chines of diverting Chins’s attention away from the imperatives of modernisation and, yes, westernisation.
•  Jawaharlal Nehru approached China as a modernist and nationalist.
• He met a delegation of Chinese nationalists at Brussels in 1927.
• There he issued a ringing statement on defeating western imperialism and shaping a new Asian and global order.
•  But in Second World War, Congress was unwilling to join hands with China in defeating Japanese imperialism.
• Indian and Chinese nationalists could not come together for they were fighting different imperial powers.

Relations after independence

• As India’s first PM, Nehru campaigned against the western attempt to isolate China.
• Afro-Asian conference in Bandung, Indonesia in 1955 was attended by both.
• Within five years war broke out in 1962.
• Atal Bihari Vajpayee travelled to China in February 1979 to re-engage Beijing.
• Before he could head home, Beijing had launched a war against a fellow communist regime in Vietnam.
• That was an end of hope for Asian solidarity.
• Rajiv Gandhi in 1988 sought to normalise relations with China while continuing to negotiate on the boundary dispute.

Other issues: Trade entanglement

• Amid border dispute, other issues have taken a life of their own.
• For example, the massive annual trade deficits.
• India’s hope that economic cooperation will improve mutual trust will help resolve other issues was also dashed.
• India’s massive trade deficit with China is now a little over half of its total trade deficit.
• India is finding it hard to disentangle the deep economic dependence on imports from China.

Story of political cooperation: From unipolar to bipolar world

• As the Cold War ended, India began political cooperation with China on global issues.
• It was hoped that such cooperation will provide the basis for better bilateral relations.
• It could not have been more wrong.
• P V Narasimha Rao and his successors joined China and Russia in promoting a “multipolar world” [remember the US dominance].
• Delhi is now struggling to cope with the emergence of a “unipolar Asia” — with Beijing as its dominant centre.
• China’s rapid rise has also paved the way for the potential emergence of a “bipolar world” dominated by Washington and Beijing.

Engagement with West

• China never worked with Indian on the ideas of building coalitions against the West.
• While India never stopped arguing with the West, China developed a sustained engagement with the US, Europe and Japan.
• Mao broke with Communist Russia to join forces with the US in the early 1970s.
• Deng Xiaoping promoted massive economic cooperation with the US to transform China and lay the foundations for its rise.

Will staying away from West lead to good relations with China

• China has leveraged the deep relationship with the West to elevate itself in the international system.
• Delhi continues to think that staying away from America is the answer for good relations with Beijing.
• Beijing sees the world through the lens of power.
• Delhi tends to resist that realist prism.
• India has consistently misread China’s interests and ambitions.
• The longer India takes to shed that strategic lassitude, the greater will be its China trouble.

Facts that India needs to come to terms with

• India must also recognise that China, like the great powers before it, wants to redeem its territorial claims.
• China also has the ambition to bend the neighbourhood to its will, reshape the global order to suit its interests.
• China has not hidden these goals and interests, but India has refused to see what is in plain sight.

Consider the question “Acknowledging Beijing’s rise, scale of challenge it presents, are first steps in crafting a new China policy” Comment.

Conclusion

Acknowledging China’s dramatic rise and recognising the scale of the challenge it presents is essential for Delhi in crafting a new China policy.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now

While formulating our response to China’s aggressive policies in Ladakh, we should first understand their objectives. This article explains these objective and suggests the steps to deal with China’s policies.

Statements on Aksai Chin and Pakistan

• Statements over Aksai Chin and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) by India have painted the image of India as a revanchist power in utter disregard of the country’s capabilities.
• These statements also gave the impression that India precludes any attempt at changing the status quo on either front.
• Though these statements were justifiable in terms of India’s legal rights to these territories, were ill-timed.

How these statements were perceived by China

• They were made when Beijing was feeling alarmed at the Indian government’s decision to separate Ladakh from Jammu and Kashmir.
• The move augmented its perception that it was a prelude to India’s attempt to change the status quo in Aksai Chin.
• India’s assertion of its claims on PoK that in China’s perception threatened the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

China’s 4 strategic objectives

1. India and China are not equals

• China wants India to understand that it is not in the same league as China.
• China resorts to periodic assaults across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) if India tries to assume a position of equality.

2. Keep India away from interfering in Indo-Pacific

• China wants India not to actively oppose Chinese designs to dominate the Indo-Pacific region.
• Also, China wants Indias to refrain from aligning with the U.S. and its allies — Japan and Australia, in particular — in an attempt to contain China.

3. Keeping India preoccupied with problems

• China’s strategy also includes keeping India preoccupied with problems in its immediate neighbourhood.
• So with these problems, India cannot act as an alternative pole of power to China in the broader Asian region.

4. Supporting Pakistan to neutralise India

• As part of the last objective, China supports  Pakistan economically and militarily, including the sharing of nuclear weapons designs.
• China uses Pakistan to neutralise India’s conventional power superiority vis-à-vis that country.

An understanding of these objectives is essential to fashioning a realistic Indian response to China’s aggressive policies in Ladakh and elsewhere along the LAC.

But, what about Pakistan?

• Pakistan is at best an irritant for India. (so, focus on China)
• Pakistan can be managed with the use of diplomatic tools, international opprobrium, and superior military force.
• In fact, the Pakistani challenge to India has become magnified because of its nexus with China.

What India should do?

• India’s main strategic goal should be the adoption of carefully calculated policies that neutralise China’s diplomatic and military clout in the Asia-Pacific region.
• While doing so, India should not appear as a surrogate for other powers.
• And India should also ensure that in making alliances it in not sacrificing the autonomy of decision-making in foreign policy. 

Consider the question “Understanding of China’s objective is essential to formulate a realistic response to its aggressive policies in Ladakh.” Comment.

Conclusion

Understanding the greater threat posed by China vis-a-vis Pakistan should be the basis of India’s policy towards China.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now

Of late, India’s bilateral relations with Nepal has been going south. The latest trigger has been the changes made by Nepal in the map. This article explores the transformation of Nepal and its impact on India-Nepal relations. Despite the efforts by Nepal to explore the options beyond India, ties are still robust between the two countries and this is reflected in more than one ways.

Let’s map the changes in  Nepal with one constant factor: nationalism

1. Democracy

• The obvious change in Nepal is that it is now a democratic republic after nearly 250 years of being a monarchy.
• The Nepali Congress and Maoist leader, Prachanda, claim democracy (1990) and the abolition of monarchy (2008) as their legacies.

2. Societal change due to exposure to globalisation

• More pervasive is the societal change from Nepal’s exposure to globalisation.
• Geography, too, stands to change, with the Chinese now having the potential to bore through the Himalayas and exhibiting their presence in Kathmandu in economics and politics.

3. Nationalism

• The constant in Nepal is nationalism which is really a mask for anti-India sentiment.
• Politicians use it for personal gain, and it is deeply ingrained in the bureaucracy, academia and the media.
• Today, Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli is cementing his legacy as a nationalist by extending Nepal’s map into Indian territory.
• The cartographic aggression and the embedding of the new map in the country’s national emblem and Constitution are untenable and should have been avoided under all circumstances.
• In 2015, the Nepali Congress government adopted the new Constitution, ignoring India’s concerns.

4. Identity politics

• Identity politics with India is also visible within the country.
• Nepali citizens from the Terai (Madhesis) feel discriminated as being “Indian”.

To Nepal, their attitudes reflect the angst of a small state. To India, Nepal appears incorrigible.

Let’s understand how globalisation changed Nepal

• After democracy was restored in 1990, passports were more liberally issued, and Nepalis began looking for work opportunities globally, beyond just India.
• West Asia and South-East Asia specifically became major destinations for labour migration.
• Security uncertainties with the Maoist insurgency at home also propelled the trend of migration.
• Students and skilled personnel began moving to Europe, the United States, Australia, Thailand and even to Japan and South Korea.
• As of 2019, nearly a fifth of Nepal’s population, from all parts of the country, were reportedly overseas.
• At an estimated $8 billion, global remittances account for nearly 30% of Nepal’s nominal GDP.
• This makes Nepal one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world.
• Leftist ideology and the prominent presence of international non-governmental organisations — ostensibly there to resolve conflict and alleviate poverty — have added to Nepal’s exposure to the world.
• Nepal’s 2011 Census shows that over 80% of its 28 million-strong population were Hindus, and since 1962, it had formally been a Hindu kingdom.
• The new Constitution in 2015 makes Nepal a secular country.
• The proliferation of communication technology has also spread a certain cosmopolitanism but without the accompanying metropolitanism.

Nepal exploring options beyond India

• Kathmandu has continued its long-standing efforts to spread Nepal’s options beyond India.
• Multilateral development banks are by far the biggest lenders and players in the country’s development efforts.
• And in fact, one of Nepal’s largest aid donors is the European Union.
• India and China are not the only players for big projects either.
• A long-delayed project to pipe water into Kathmandu was with an Italian company.
• Major investments in the telecom sector are coming from Malaysia, and the largest international carrier in Nepal is Qatar Airways.

Weakening of natural bond and responsible factors

• The outward movement of students, along with with the growth of institutions of higher learning at home, has meant that most young people in Nepal, including emerging contemporary leaders in politics, business or academics, have not studied in India.
• This lack of common collegiate roots removes a natural bond of previous generations that had provided for better understanding and even empathy.
• While most Nepalis understand Hindi, because of the popularity of Bollywood, articulation is quite another matter.

Robust ties with India, despite diversification

• Despite Nepal’s efforts to diversify its options globally, its linkages with India remain robust.
• Nepal’s trade with India has grown in absolute terms and continues to account for more than two-thirds of Nepal’s external trade of around $12 billion annually.
• This clearly reflects the advantages of geography, both physical and societal.
• India continues to be the largest aggregate investor in Nepal.
• The massive under-construction Arun-III 900 MW hydro-electric project is slated to singly produce as much power, when completed in five years, as Nepal produces today.
• Moreover, the peg with the Indian Rupee provides unique stability to the Nepali Rupee.

Unique advantage to Nepal

• Nepal’s per-capita income is just above $1,000.
• While the huge remittance economy has brought a semblance of well-being, the country has a long way to go in reaching prosperity.
• The relationship with India, with open borders and Nepalis being allowed to live and work freely, provides Nepal a unique advantage and an economic cushion.
• The latter is particularly important today with COVID-19-caused global contraction positioned to pop the remittance bubble.
• Neither the Chinese nor any others are likely to write blank cheques.
• India for its part should also focus on developing its border areas with Nepal, with better roads and amenities of interest (such as shopping malls) to the burgeoning Nepali middle class.
• This would have economic plusses for both sides and keep ties strong at the people’s level. It would also be an image makeover.

Consider the question “Despite intermittent disagreements over certain issues, India-Nepal ties remain robust. In light of this, elaborate on the ties between the two countries and suggest ways to find the solution to the latest border dispute between the two countries.”

Conclusion

It is important that we update the prism through which we view our relationship with our Himalayan neighbour. We must not forget the past nor turn away from it but, instead, must be mindful of the realities of a changing India and a changing Nepal.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now