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  • Agricultural Sector and Marketing Reforms – eNAM, Model APMC Act, Eco Survey Reco, etc.

    The roots of the agricultural crisis run deep

    op-ed snap | Agriculture | Mains Paper 3: Issues Related To Farm Subsidies & Msp

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not Much

    Mains level: Concerns of farmers other than MSP

    The standoff between farmers and the government continues even after a few rounds of discussion.

    Un-timely reforms

    • Currently, the country was struggling with novel coronavirus-caused lockdowns, supply disruptions, job losses and falling incomes in an economy.
    • The reforms embedded in the three Acts are unlikely to help resolve the structural issues facing Indian agriculture, even their withdrawal is unlikely to change the ground reality.

    Farmers protest continues

    • The immediate trigger for the current protests is the enactment of the three Acts, on agricultural marketing, contract farming and stocking of agricultural produce, which deregulates the existing Acts on these.
    • Farmer unions have rejected the proposal and continue to demand complete withdrawal of the three Acts along with making MSP a guarantee.

    Government for negotiations

    • The latest proposal by the government indicates its willingness to amend the three agriculture-related Acts passed in September.
    • The government has proposed amendments which will empower the States to frame rules the contentious issues of registration of private traders, levy of taxes on trade outside the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) mandis.
    • Similar assurances have been given on access to the judiciary for dispute resolution and continuation of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) mechanism.

    Many protests, one thread

    • The last four years have seen a series of large protests in most of the States.
    • For example, a group of farmers from Tamil Nadu camped in Delhi for over 100 days, Maharashtra was witness to the ‘Kisan Long March’ of farmers on more than one occasion, protests erupted in Rajasthan, UP, Haryana and MP.
    • The latest round of protests may have seen spirited protests from farmers from Punjab and Haryana but has found the support of farmers from the other States as well.
    • The common thread in all these protests — of declining agricultural incomes, stagnant wages and withdrawal of state support to agriculture.

    Changing faces of agriculture

    • The real issue is the lack of remunerative prices for a majority of agricultural commodities, a sharp increase in price variability in recent years, and an unpredictable and arbitrary government policy regime.
    • The other major problem is the changing nature of agriculture which has seen increased dependence on markets, increasing mechanization along with increasing monetization of the agrarian economy.
    • The increased dependence on markets has contributed to increasing variability in output prices.
    • Limited government intervention in protecting farmers’ income and stabilizing prices through MSP-led procurement operations made the increased variability in frequency as well as its spread.
    • Other than rice and wheat — and to some sporadic instances, of pulses — most crops suffer from inadequate intervention from MSP operations.
    • Even these procurement operations are unable to stabilize prices with falling demand and a slowing economy. For example, wheat has seen a steady decline in year-on-year inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
    • Uneven nature of procurement in some states is also responsible to arrest the decline in prices. Crops like paddy, maize have seen in many States significantly lower market prices than the MSP.

    Factors behind vulnerability

    • Increasing mechanization and monetization have led to an increase in the cash requirement.
    • Most of these are met by non-institutional sources including middlemen which have contributed to the rising cost of cultivation and an increase in loan defaults.
    • The demand for loan waivers is unlikely to subside with the rising cost of inputs.
    • These trends have accentuated after 2010-11 when the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) for fertilizers regime led to an increase in fertilizer prices.
    • The withdrawal of diesel subsidy and a rise in electricity prices also contributed to making agriculture unviable.
    • The government has declined the agricultural investment in the first four years which resulted in rising input costs and falling output prices.
    • The shocks of demonetization and the lockdown only increased the uncertainty and vulnerability in the agricultural sector both on input and output prices.

    What lies ahead?

    • The demand for making MSP a guarantee for private trade is meaningless if the government is unable to ensure procurement for a majority of the 23 crops for which it announces MSP.
    • Thus, the withdrawal of the three Acts by the government will only seem to offer a temporary truce.

    Policy overhaul needed

    • The existing policy framework with an excessive focus on inflation management and obsession with the fiscal deficit will likely lead to lower support from the government either in price stabilization or reduction in the cost of cultivation through fiscal spending.
    • The agricultural sector needs a comprehensive policy overhaul to recognize the new challenges of agriculture which are diversifying and getting integrated with the non-agricultural sector.
    • This not only entails a better understanding of the structural issues but also innovative thinking to protect farmers’ livelihood from the uncertainty of these changes.
    • Above all, it requires financial support and institutional structures to support the agricultural sector and protect it. Only this can lead to the government’s dream of doubling the farmers’ income.

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  • Climate Change Negotiations – UNFCCC, COP, Other Conventions and Protocols

    Five years of Paris Agreement

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Paris Agreement

    Mains level: Paper 3- Net zero emission targets and issues with it

     Climate Ambition Summit was held on the 5th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. The article takes stock of the progress made on climate action in the last 5 years.

    The Paris Agreement

    • The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016.
    • Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.
    • To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate-neutral world by mid-century.
    • It is a landmark process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.

    How does it function?

    • Implementation of the Paris Agreement requires economic and social transformation, based on the best available science.
    • The Agreement works on a 5- year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action carried out by countries.
    • By 2020, countries submit their plans for climate action known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

    NDCs

    • In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their Greenhouse Gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.
    • Countries also communicate in the NDCs actions they will take to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of rising temperatures.

    Long-Term Strategies

    • To better frame the efforts towards the long-term goal, the Paris Agreement invites countries to formulate and submit by 2020 long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS).
    • LT-LEDS provide the long-term horizon to the NDCs. Unlike NDCs, they are not mandatory.
    • Nevertheless, they place the NDCs into the context of countries’ long-term planning and development priorities, providing a vision and direction for future development.

    Progress made after 5 years

    • All states have submitted their national contributions to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
    • However, these contributions are radically insufficient to reach the “well below 2 degrees Celsius” limit and are even further from the “1.5 degrees Celsius” temperature limit identified in the Paris Agreement.
    • This initial shortfall was expected — the logic of the Paris Agreement relied on iterative scaling up of national targets over time to bridge the gap.

    Are countries scaling up the targets

    • Although 151 states have indicated that they will submit stronger targets before December 31, only 13 of them, covering 2.4 per cent of global emissions, have submitted such targets.
    • While states have been slow to update their national contributions for 2025-2030, several have announced “net zero” targets in the recent past.
    • All G-7 states except the US and 11 G20 members have mid-century (2050 or 2060) net zero targets -carbon dioxide or other GHGs.
    • The Joe Biden administration is also expected to join this group.

    Issues in Net Zero targets

    1) Credibility of the commitments

    • First, the credibility check — are these long-term net zero goals aligned with short-term actions, policies and measures?
    • The IPCC 1.5 degrees Celsius Report indicated that to stay within a reasonable chance of achieving 1.5 degrees Celsius, global carbon dioxide emissions have to fall by 45 per cent from the 2010 levels by 2030.
    • Current national contributions are not on track for such a fall.
    • For many there is a mismatch between short-term actions and long-term commitments.
    • Further, there is a significant “overshoot” in terms of GHGs in the short and medium-term, and a reliance on negative emissions technologies to get there in the long-term.

    2) Fixing accountability

    • Many net zero goals have not yet been embedded in national contributions and long-term strategies under the Paris Agreement.
    • In any case, accountability under the Paris Agreement is limited. States are not obliged to achieve their self-selected targets.
    • There is no mechanism to review the adequacy of individual contributions.
    • States are only asked to provide justifications for the fairness and ambition of their targets.
    • The transparency framework does not contain a robust review function, and the compliance committee is facilitative and limited to ensuring compliance with a short list of binding procedural obligations.
    • Accountability, therefore, has thus far been generated by non-state actors outside the UN regime rather than in the regime.

    3) Fairness of climate action

    •  The issue of equity and fairness, side-stepped in the Paris Agreement, is emerging in climate litigation before national and regional courts.
    • In the landmark Urgenda case (2019), the Dutch Supreme court considered “fair shares” when identifying benchmarks against which the Netherland’s national effort could be judged in the context of a collective action problem.
    • Issues of fairness and justice, both between and within generations, are “unavoidable”.

    India’s commitment

    In 2015, ahead of the UN significant climate conference in Paris, India announced three major voluntary commitments called the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC):

    1. Improving the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33–35% by 2030 over 2005 levels
    2. Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels-based electricity to 40% by 2030 and
    3. Enhancing its forest cover, thereby absorbing 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide

    A success (?)

    • The Environment Minister said that we have achieved 21% of its emissions intensity reduction target as a proportion of its GDP in line with its pledge to a 33-35% reduction by 2030.
    • India was the only major G20 country that was on track towards keeping to its nationally determined commitments to halt runaway global warming.

    Conclusion

    Credible short-term commitments, with a clear pathway to medium-term decarbonisation, that take into account the multiple challenges states face, such as on air pollution, and development, might well be the more defensible choice for some.

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  • Iran’s Nuclear Program & Western Sanctions

    Iran’s calculated risk

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Iran's nuclear deal

    Mains level: Paper 2- Iran nuclear deal and challenges

    The article analyses Iran’s response to the recent killing of its top nuclear scientist. Instead of responding to the provocation, Iran has decided to wait and watch the new U.S. administrations response.

    Background of nuclear deal with Iran

    • In 2015, the P5+1 nations-China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., plus Germany- reached an agreement with Iran to curb the country’s nuclear programme.
    • It was expected that the agreement would lead to a new beginning in West Asia, however, this did not happen.
    • Washington saw Iran’s nuclear programme, which was at an advanced stage in 2015, as a national security problem and tackled it via diplomacy.
    • However, for Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s nuclear programme was not the problem but was part of the larger geopolitical challenges Iran posed.
    • The problem was Iran itself: Tehran’s influence across West Asia, its backing for non-state militias, and its ambition to emerge as a dominant pillar in the region.
    • The Donald Trump administration took an entirely different line towards Iran.
    • It pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear deal, despite United Nations certification that Iran was compliant with its terms, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

    Israels

    • Iran wants to set back Iran’s nuclear programme by taking out a prominent scientist and scuttle the possible revival of the nuclear deal.
    • If Iran does not retaliate, it shows that Iran’s deterrence is getting weaker, which could trigger more such attacks from its rivals.
    • If it retaliates, it could escalate the conflict, giving the outgoing Trump administration and Isarael reasons to launch heavier strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, closing off the diplomatic path.

    Iran’s response and challenges in it

    • Instead of walking into the trap of provocation, Iran’s Parliament passed a Bill that obliges the government to enrich uranium to a higher level, from less than 5% now to 20%.
    • This is a technical step away from the weapons-grade level of 90%.
    • And stop access for UN inspectors to the country’s top nuclear facilities in two months if sanctions relief is not given.
    • Within two months, Mr. Biden will be in the White House.

    Conclusion

    Iran is taking a calculated risk by enhancing its nuclear programme, which can be reversed if talks are revived. But it is leaving the Israel problem unaddressed, for now. This leaves the region vulnerable to a prolonged crisis.

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  • Mother and Child Health – Immunization Program, BPBB, PMJSY, PMMSY, etc.

    Threat of malnutrition to promise of India

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Government Scheme/Policies,Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: POSHAN Abhiyan

    Mains level: Paper 2- Analysing the contribution of POSHAN Abhiyan

    POSHAN Abhiyan has completed 1000 days. The article analyses the challenges country face on the nutrition front which has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 induced disruptions.

    Severity and impact of malnutrition

    • Malnourished children tend to fall short of their real potential — physically as well as mentally.
    • That is because malnutrition leaves their bodies weaker and more susceptible to illnesses.
    • In 2017, a staggering 68% of 1.04 million deaths of children under five years in India was attributable to malnutrition, reckoned a Lancet study in 2019.
    • Without necessary nutrients, their brains do not develop to the fullest.
    • Malnutrition places a burden heavy enough for India, to make it a top national priority.
    • About half of all children under five years in the country were found to be stunted (too short) or wasted (too thin) for their height, estimated the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey, carried out by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare with support of UNICEF three years ago.

    POSHAN Abhiyan against the background Covid-19 disruption

    • The Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nutrition (POSHAN) Abhiyaan in 2018, led to a holistic approach to tackle malnutrition.
    • Under it, the government strengthened the delivery of essential nutrition interventions.
    • COVID-19 is pushing millions into poverty making them vulnerable to malnutrition and food insecurities.
    • Pandemic-prompted lockdowns disrupted essential services — such as supplementary feeding under anganwadi centres, mid-day meals, immunisation, and micro-nutrient supplementation which can exacerbate malnutrition.
    •  Leaders from academia, civil society, development partners, community advocates and the private sector have come together as part of ‘commitment to action’.
    • The ‘commitment to action’ includes commitments around sustained leadership, dedicated finances, multi-sectoral approach and increased uninterrupted coverage of a vulnerable population under programmes enhancing nutrition.

    Financial commitments

    • India already has some of the world’s biggest early childhood public intervention schemes such as the Integrated Child Development Scheme, the mid-day meal programme, and Public Distribution System.
    • India needs to ensure coverage of every single child and mother.
    • To ensure this, the country needs to retain its financial commitments for nutrition schemes.
    • Economic insecurities often force girls into early marriage, early motherhood, discontinue their schooling, and reduce institutional deliveries, cut access to micronutrient supplements, and nutritious food.
    •  Accelerating efforts to address these will be needed to stop the regression into the deeper recesses of malnutrition.

    Conclusion

    It takes time for nutrition interventions to yield dividends, but once those accrue, they can bring transformative generational shifts. Filling in the nutrition gaps will guarantee a level-playing field for all children and strengthen the foundations for the making of a future super-power.

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  • Mother and Child Health – Immunization Program, BPBB, PMJSY, PMMSY, etc.

    Anganwadi centres

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Government Scheme/Policies,Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: ICDS program

    Mains level: Paper 2- Role of Anganwadi centres in ICDS

    The article highlights the role of Anganwadi’s in the effective implementation and service delivery under the ICDS.

    Gaps in the utilisation of services by ICDS

    • The economic fallout of COVID-19 makes the necessity of quality public welfare services more pressing than ever.
    • The Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) programme is one such scheme.
    • ICDS caters to the nutrition, health and pre-education needs of children till six years of age as well as the health and nutrition of women and adolescent girls.  
    • However, recent reports have shown gaps in the utilisation of services.

    Recasting the Anganwadi centres

    • Anganwadi centres (AWCs) could become agents of improved delivery of ICDS’s services.
    • According to government data, the country has 13.77 lakh Anganwadi centres (AWCs).
    • These centres have expanded their reach, but they need to play a much larger role in anchoring community development.
    • Nearly a fourth of the operational AWCs lack drinking water facilities and 36 per cent do not have toilets.
    • In 2015, the NITI Aayog recommended better sanitation and drinking water facilities, improved power supply and basic medicines for the AWCs.
    • NITI Aayog also suggested that these centres be provided with the required number of workers, whose skills should be upgraded through regular training.
    •  It has acknowledged the need to improve anganwadi centres.
    • The Central government’s Saksham Anganwadi Scheme aims to upgrade 2.5 lakh such centres across the country. It is up to the state governments to take up the baton
    • Only a limited number of AWCs have facilities like creche, and good quality recreational and learning facilities for pre-school education.
    • An approach that combines an effective supplementary nutrition programme with pedagogic processes that make learning interesting is the need of the hour.

    Steps taken for effective implementation of ICDS

    • Effective implementation of the ICDS programme rests heavily on the combined efforts of the anganwadi workers (AWWs), ASHAs and ANMs.
    • The Centre’s POSHAN Abhiyaan has taken important steps towards building capacities of AWWs.
    • Technology can also be used for augmenting the programme’s quality.
    • AWWs have been provided with smartphones and their supervisors with tablets, under the government schemes.
    • Apps on these devices track the distribution of take-home rations and supplementary nutrition services.
    • The data generated should inform decisions to improve the programme.
    • In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, anganwadi centres have been geotagged to improve service delivery.
    • Gujarat has digitised the supply chain of take-home rations and real-time data is being used to minimise stockouts at the anganwadi centres.

    Conclusion

    Government must act on the three imperatives. First, while infrastructure development and capacity building of the anganwadi remains the key to improving the programme, the standards of all its services need to be upscaled. Second, states have much to learn from each other’s experiences. Third, anganwadi centres must cater to the needs of the community and the programme’s workers.

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  • Factors sustaining federalism in India

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Federalism

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Federal structure

    Mains level: Paper 2- Federalism in India and factors sustaining it

    The article analyses the various factor that helped in sustaining the federal structure in India.

    Flexible federalism

    • The Indian Constitution was designed to be opportunistic about federalism.
    • As BR Ambedkar had put it, “India’s Draft Constitution can be both unitary as well as federal according to the requirements of time and circumstances.”
    • This flexible federalism is still the default common sense of Indian politics.
    • The concerns about security, state-building, and economic development are always given preference over the idea of federalism.

    4 factors sustaining federalism in India

    1) Linguistic and cultural diversity in India

    • The first was a genuine concern about whether a centralised state could accommodate India’s linguistic and cultural diversity.
    • The States Reorganisation Act and the compromises on the issue of languages was a victory for federalism.
    • It allowed India to use federalism to accommodate linguistic diversity.
    • So long as regional linguistic identities are not threatened there is no natural source of resistance to centralisation.

    2) Distribution of political power

    • The rise of coalition governments, economic liberalisation, regional parties, seemed to provide a basis for political federalism.
    • Political federalism is quite compatible with financial, and administrative centralisation.
    • Fragmentation of power effectively meant was that each state could bargain for certain things, or very strong leaders could veto central proposals.
    • However, it is striking that the period of fragmented power, strong chief ministers, didn’t act to strengthen the institutions of federalism.

    3) Political and institutional culture

    • The third thing that sustains federalism is the political and institutional culture.
    • But the culture of political parties ruling at the Centre was committed to the most extreme interpretation of flexible federalism, including procedural impropriety to oust opponents.
    • Because of the increasing presidentialisation of national politics, the attribution of policy successes or failures might change, diminishing the stature of chief ministers considerably.
    • The other source of institutional culture might be the Supreme Court.
    • There was mostly a bi-partisan consensus on honouring the technical recommendations of institutions like the Finance Commission.

    4) Asymmetrical federalism

    • The fourth thing that sustained federalism was “asymmetrical federalism” — special exemptions given to various states.
    • But asymmetrical federalism has always been subject to three pressures.
    • For Kashmir, asymmetrical federalism came to be seen as the source, not the resolution, of the security threat.
    • Even in the North-east, local conflicts within the scheme of asymmetrical federalism and discourse of security allowed the Centre to step in.
    • And increasingly, there will be pressure on the question: Which laws under asymmetrical federalism are compatible with Article 14 of the Indian Constitution?

    GST and Decentralisation in states

    • The most far-reaching change in the Indian Constitution on federalism was GST.
    • It does increase centralisation in the system.
    • But it is a product of the cooperation of the states, who still have a significant role in shaping it.
    • The states did push back against the possibility of the Centre reneging on its commitment on payments.
    • Most states are reluctant to honour more decentralisation within, to rural and urban bodies.
    • The Centre disproportionately controls resources in India; but very few states have shown a zeal to increase their own financial headroom by utilising whatever powers they might have on taxation.

    Consider the question “How federalism in India is different from the U.S.? What are the factors responsible for its sustenance in India?”

    Conclusion

    The flexible federalism will be bent in all kinds of ways. But it is important to remember that this mess is not a product of Centre versus states. It has been co-produced by a political culture in both Centre and the states.

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  • Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

    Need for avoiding misplaced optimism over economic recovery

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: GDP

    Mains level: Paper 3- Recovery of Indian economy and the issue of fiscal conservatism

    Overoptimism stemming from the signs of recovery shown by the figures for the second quarter could result in reduced spending and the rollback of the stimulus. However, other features indicate that fiscal conservatism at this moment is not a good idea.

    Hype over recovery

    •  India’s economy contracted by 7.5% in the second quarter of financial year 2020-21.
    • There are two ways to look at that figure:-
    • 1) That figure is far lower than the 23.9% contraction registered in the first quarter of this financial year.
    • 2) A 7.5% second quarter contraction is high both in itself and when compared with most similarly placed countries.
    • The government, however, has chosen to focus on the unsurprising evidence that GDP rose sharply, by 23%, between the first quarter and the second when restrictions were substantially lifted.
    • Based on that evidence, the Finance Ministry’s Monthly Economic Report, for November, speaks of a V-shaped recovery reflective of “the resilience and robustness of the Indian economy”.
    • The danger is that such optimism would provide the justification to avoid adoption of the measures crucially needed to pull the economy out of recession.

    India economy is still demand constrained: 3 signs

    • 1) The decline in private final consumption expenditure at constant prices, which accounts for 56% of GDP, has come down from minus 27% in the first quarter to minus 11% in the second, it still remains high.
    • Though there are signs of a short-run recovery in private consumption demand with the lifting of lockdowns, net incomes and consumer confidence are not at levels that can even restore last year’s levels.
    • 2) As is to be expected, with production restraints relaxed, depleted stocks are being replenished with a fall of 21% in the first quarter turning into an increase in stocking of 6.3% in the second quarter.
    • 3) The decline in fixed capital formation has fallen from a high minus 47% in the first quarter to minus 7% in the second, investment is still falling year-on-year.
    • These are all signs of an economy that is severely demand constrained, requiring a significant step up in government expenditure.

    Impact on spending by the Centre and the States

    • Figures from the Office of the Controller General of Accounts for the first seven months of 2020-21 (April to October) indicate that the total expenditure of the central government stood at only 55% of what was provided for in the Budget for 2020-21.
    • In fact, in a non-COVID-19 year, 2019-20, the ratio of actual spending by the central government over April-October relative to that budgeted figure was a higher 59%.
    •  Meanwhile, with Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues having fallen from their lower-than-expected levels during the COVID-19 months, the States have been cash-strapped.
    • Yet, the government has decided not to compensate them for the shortfall, as promised under the GST regime.
    • States have been left to fend for themselves by going to market and borrowing at high interest rates, which they would find difficult to cover.
    • Needless to say, as a consequence, State spending has also been curtailed.

    Why government should avoid fiscal conservatism

    • The loss of jobs and livelihoods that happened during lockdown is sure to affect demand now.
    • This leads to increased indebtedness and the bankruptcies well after restrictions are relaxed.
    • So, the tasks of providing safety nets, reviving employment and spurring demand become crucial.
    • Since the market cannot deliver on those fronts, state action facilitated by substantially enhanced expenditure is crucial.
    • And since government revenues shrink during a recession, that expenditure has to be funded by borrowing.
    • This is no time for fiscal conservatism, as governments across the world have come to accept.
    • Trend suggests that allocations for welfare expenditures — ranging from subsidised food to minimal guaranteed employment — needed to support those whose livelihoods have been devastated by the pandemic, would be reduced over time.
    • As collateral damage, this frugality in a time of crisis is likely to prolong the recession.

    Conclusion

    The optimism that a V-shaped recovery is imminent, and that optimism, in turn, would justify the view that fiscal conservatism pays. It does not, as time would tell.

    Back2Basics: What is V-shaped recovery?

    • A V-shaped recovery is characterized by a quick and sustained recovery in measures of economic performance after a sharp economic decline.
    • Because of the speed of economic adjustment and recovery in macroeconomic performance, a V-shaped recovery is a best case scenario given the recession.
    • The recoveries that followed the recessions of 1920-21 and 1953 in the U.S. are examples of V-shaped recoveries.
    V-shaped recovery of the U.S. economy

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  • The rise of the AI economy

    op-ed snap | | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: AI and machine learning

    Mains level: Paper 3- Artificial intelligence and opportunities for Indian economy

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform the Indian economy. In the last few years, India made significant progress in its adoption. However, there are several areas India need to focus on to make the most of what AI offers.

    AI adoption and capacity building in India

    • NITI Aayog’s national strategy for AI envisages ‘AI for all’ for inclusive growth.
    • NITI Aayog identifies healthcare, agriculture, education, smart cities and infrastructure, and smart mobility and transportation as focus areas for AI-led solutions for social impact.
    • The Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra governments, among others, have announced policies and strategies for AI adoption.
    • Technology companies have established AI centres of excellence to create solutions for global clients.
    • India has a thriving AI start-up ecosystem.
    • Our talent pool in AI/ML (Machine Learning) is fast-growing, with over 5,00,000 people working on these technologies at present.

    AI will boost Indian economy

    • Nasscom believes that data and AI will contribute $450 billion-$500 billion to India’s GDP by 2025, which is around 10% of the government’s aspiration of a $5 trillion economy.
    • The growing AI economy will create employment opportunity by creating an estimated over 20 million technical roles.
    • AI can create not just niche solutions to specific problems that banks and other service providers are deploying, such as speeding up loan application processing or improving customer service; it can also provide solutions for better governance and social impact.
    •  AI can create not just niche solutions to specific problems that banks and other service providers are deploying, such as speeding up loan application processing or improving customer service; it can also provide solutions for better governance and social impact.

    Way forward: Focus on 3 areas

    1)Talent development

    • In 2019, we nearly doubled our AI workforce to 72,000 from 40,000 the year before.
    • However, the demand continues to outpace the supply.
    • That means our efforts to develop talent must pick up speed.

    2) Policies around data

    • Without data, there cannot be AI.
    • However, we need a balanced approach in the way we harness and utilise data.
    • We need a robust legal framework that governs data and serves as the base for the ethical use of AI.

    3) Providing the right amount of training data

    • Though the use of digital technologies has gone up, the level of digitisation continues to be low.
    • This poses a big challenge for organisations in finding the right amount of training data to run AI/ML algorithms, which in turn affects the accuracy of the results.
    • Then there is the problem of availability of clean datasets.
    • Organisations need to invest in data management frameworks that will clean their data before they are analysed, thus vastly improving the outcomes of AI models.

    Consider the question “What is Artificial Intelligence? How it could help in providing a boost to the India economy?”

    Conclusion

    The future for AI looks promising but to convert the potential into reality, India will need better strategies around talent development, stronger policies for data usage and governance, and more investments in creating a technology infrastructure that can truly leverage AI.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-United States

    Building political consensus on climate change

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Geopolitics of climate change and India's role in it

    With the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. Presidential election geopolitics of the climate change is headed for a new reset. The article examines the role India could play in the changing geopolitical realities and also spells out the challenge for India.

    India’s role in geopolitics of climate change

    • India is probably better prepared than in the past when India was widely seen as part of the problem on climate issues.
    • But the urgency of addressing climate change is likely to intensify for two reasons:
    • 1) The election of Biden as US President.
    • 2) The prospect of cooperation on climate change between Washington and Beijing.
    • India’s ability to influence the new geopolitics of climate change will depend a lot on its domestic political resilience in adapting to the new imperatives.
    • While a democratic India struggles to deal with the new internal conflicts centred on climate, China has crafted a new template of “coercive environmentalism”.
    • The Chinese model of coercive environmentalism is finding an echo among some Western environmentalists.
    • Whatever the merits of authoritarian environmentalism, it has little political chance of being replicated in democracies.

    Cooperation on climate change between the US and China

    • Modernising liberal environmentalism is the essence of president-elect Biden’s commitment to integrating the climate question with the domestic policy agenda.
    • “Climate justice” is another important objective of Biden’s domestic environmental policy.
    • It is based on the recognition that pollution and other ecological problems have a greater impact on the poor and minorities.
    • Although coercive and liberal approaches to managing climate change are different, the US and China share some important objectives.
    • Both China and the US (along with the West) recognise the urgency of the challenge.
    • Beijing and Washington are also racing to develop new technologies that will constitute the foundations of the green economic future.
    • Both have zeroed in on industrial policy to achieve their climate objectives.
    • For Xi and Biden, gaining the leadership of the global movement for mitigating climate change is a strategic mission.
    • Washington and Beijing understand that climate politics is in the end about rearranging the global order.
    • Consequently, the new direction of Chinese and US policies (in partnership with Europe and Japan) will inevitably put pressure on other states for climate actions.

    Conclusion

    India’s real test on climate change is on building a new domestic consensus that can address the economic and political costs associated with an internal adjustment to the prospect of a great global reset.

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  • Skilling India – Skill India Mission,PMKVY, NSDC, etc.

    Investing in India’s youth

    op-ed snap | | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Right to Education Act, Skill India Mission

    Mains level: Paper 2- Skill development of youth in India

    Significant progress has been made in India on the skill development front. However, there are many challenges that are needed to be tackled through policy measures and their effective implementation. The article deals with the issue.

    Progress in skill development in India

    • Evidence shows that many people develop 21st-century skills on the job, or from courses that focus on practical application of skills, rather than in schools.
    • India has laid the foundation for delivering on the vision of making quality skills development programmes available to the youth.
    • Vocational education can be a route for many to gain specific skillsets, such education formats are referred to as Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET).
    • The National Skill Development Policy was launched in 2009 and revamped in 2015, recognising the challenge of skilling with speed and high standards.
    • The Skill India Mission was launched soon after, with the vision for making India the “skill capital” of the world.

    Key finding and recommendations of the UNESCO’s State of the Education Report for India

    • The report focuses on vocational education and training and showcases the growth of the skills development sector.
    • It also provides practical recommendations to ensure that policy is effectively implemented.
    • One of the biggest challenges for expanding the reach of TVET-related courses has been the lack of aspiration and stigma attached to jobs such as carpentry and tailoring.
    • Considerable effort, including information campaigns involving youth role models, would help in improving the image of vocational education.
    • At the same time, common myths around TVET need to be debunked.
    • Research is now proving that TVET graduates for entry level jobs can get paid as much as university graduates.
    • Moreover, students from vocational streams typically take less time to find jobs as compared to university graduates.
    • The report emphasises the need for expanding evidence-based research.
    • High-quality research based on careful data-gathering and analytics can add value to all aspects of TVET planning and delivery.

    Emphasis on vocational education in NEP

    • The new National Education Policy (NEP) aims to provide vocational education to 50% of all learners by 2025.
    • Schools are encouraged to provide students access to vocational education from Grade 6 onwards and to offer courses that are aligned to the local economies and can benefit local communities.
    • For the vision of the NEP to be fulfilled, a robust coordination mechanism for inter-ministerial cooperation is necessary for bringing the skills development and vocational education systems together.

    Conclusion

    Effective implementation of the policies for skill development is essential for capitalising on the country’s demographic dividend.

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