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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

    Hardly the India-China century

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Context

    Deng Xiaoping had told then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988 that the 21st century would be “India and China’s century”, the current Chinese leadership has no patience for such pablum. They believe — indeed believe they know — that it is destined to be China’s century alone.

    The policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations

    • There have always been political tensions, both over each country’s territorial claims over land controlled by the other, and China’s alliance with Pakistan, and India’s hospitality to the Dalai Lama.
    • But neither country had allowed these tensions to overwhelm them:
    • China had declared that the border dispute could be left to “future generations” to resolve.
    • India had endorsed the “One China” policy, refusing to support Tibetan secessionism while limiting official reverence for the Dalai Lama to his status as a spiritual leader.
    • India actions and statements have usually been designed not to provoke, but to relegate the border problem to the back burner while enabling trade relations with China (now worth close to $100 billion) to flourish.
    • India made it clear that it was unwilling to join in any United States-led “containment” of China.
    • From negligible levels till 1991, trade with China had grown to become one of India’s largest trading relationships. 
    • India engages with China diplomatically in the BRICS  as well as conducting annual summits of RIC (Russia-India-China).
    • India is an enthusiastic partner in the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank (NDB).
    • However, it has become increasingly apparent that the policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations has played into Chinese hands.

    Chinese strategy in Galwan

    • In the Galwan clash, the Chinese troops seem to have been engaged in a tactical move to advance their positions along areas of the LAC that it covets, in order to threaten Indian positions and interdict patrols.
    • They are threatening India’s construction of roads, bridges and similar infrastructure on undisputed Indian territory, a belated effort to mirror similar Chinese efforts near the LAC in Tibet.
    • They have established a fixed presence in these areas well beyond China’s own ‘Claim Line’.
    • The objective seems to be to extend Chinese troop presence to the intersection of the Galwan river and the Shyok river, which would make the Galwan Valley off bounds to India.
    • The Chinese have constructed permanent structures in the area of their intrusion and issued statements claiming that sovereignty over the Galwan valley has “always belonged” to China.
    • Consolidation of LOC: China’s strategy seems to be to consolidate the LAC where it wants it, so that an eventual border settlement — that takes these new realities into account — will be in its favour.
    • Implications for India:  In the meantime, border incidents keep the Indians off-balance and demonstrate to the world that India is not capable of challenging China, let alone offering security to other nations.

    India’s options

    • India has reinforced its military assets on the LAC to prevent deeper incursions for now.
    • And hopes to press the Chinese to restore the status quo ante through either diplomatic or military means.
    • Chinese and Indian officials are currently engaged in diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue to ease tensions, but de-escalation has been stalled for months.
    • Economic options: India has responded with largely symbolic acts of economic retaliation.
    • India has also reimposed tighter limits on Chinese investment in projects such as railways, motorways, public-sector construction projects, and telecoms.

    Limits to India’s economic retaliation

    • India is far too dependent on China for vital imports — such as pharmaceuticals, and even the active ingredients to make them, automotive parts and microchips that many fear it will harm India if it acted too strongly against China.
    • Imports from China have become indispensable for India’s exports to the rest of the world.
    • Various manufacturing inputs, industrial equipment and components, and even some technological know-how come from China; eliminating them could have a seriously negative effect on India’s economic growth.
    • And there are limits to the effectiveness of any Indian retaliation: trade with China may seem substantial from an Indian perspective, but it only represents 3% of China’s exports.
    • Drastically reducing it would not be enough to deter Beijing or cause it to change its behaviour.

    Consider the question “State of India-China relationship hardly indicate the 21st Century being the “India and China’s century”. In light of this, examine the factors responsible for this and suggest the way forward for India.”

    Conclusion

    This range of considerations seems to leave only two strategic options. Playing second fiddle to an assertive China or aligning itself with a broader international coalition against Chinese ambitions. Since the first is indigestible for any democracy, is China de facto pushing India into doing something it has always resisted — allying with the West?

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  • Goods and Services Tax (GST)

    Centre and states must strike bargain on GST

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Context

    After one and a half years of dispute, and with the economy showing signs of recovery, a path forward for the GST finally seems visible. This opportunity needs to be seized to strike the Centre-State bargain.

    How GST performed so far

    •  The contributors are many but the critical one has been simply a lack of revenues.
    • Initially, the GST performed well, with collections soaring to Rs 11.8 lakh crore in the first full year of implementation in 2018-19.
    • But in 2019-20, the growth rate decelerated sharply. And in 2020-21, collections actually fell.
    • As future collections became uncertain, a gap opened up between the amount that the Centre felt it could afford to promise and the minimum that the states felt they needed and were entitled to.
    • More recently, however, confidence in GST has improved.
    • Collections have revived, averaging Rs 1.1 lakh crore in the first five months of the current fiscal year, exceeding even pre-pandemic levels.

    What explains the weak revenue performance of the GST?

    • Slowing economy: The GST’s past performance now seems much better than it once did.
    • We now know that after 2018-19, nominal GDP growth slowed from 10.5 per cent in 2018-19 to 7.8 per cent the next year and -3 per cent in 2020-21.
    • Effective rate cuts: The RBI has pointed out, the effective tax rate has fallen by nearly 3 percentage points because of rate cutting in 2019, in which both the Centre and states were complicit.
    • Thus the weak revenue performance of the GST now seems attributable to wider economic difficulties and policy actions, rather than problems with the tax itself.

    Necessary changes: Opportunity for striking bargain for Centre and States

    1) Principle of compensation must be re-cast: Create revenue buffer

    • As the GST was a new tax, so states were guaranteed against the teething troubles that would inevitably arise for the next five years.
    • Five years on, this logic is less compelling.
    • The GST as tax reform has reached maturity, well understood by producers, consumers, and tax officials.
    • At the same time, the last few years have exposed the vulnerability of the states to shocks such as Covid-19 pandemic.
    • Way forward: To prevent this situation from recurring, the authorities should create a revenue buffer that could be tapped in a time of need.
    • In sum, there is a bargain waiting to be struck: The states give up their demand for an extension of the compensation mechanism, while the Centre offers a new counter-cyclical buffer.
    • As the figure shows, in good economic times, GST revenues will be robust but it is against downturns that states need protection.
    • The shift to revenue insurance, in turn, should allow the compensation cess to be abolished. 

    2) The GST structure needs to be simplified and rationalised

    • The GST structure needs to be simplified and rationalised, as recommended by the Fifteenth Finance Commission and the Revenue Neutral Rate report.
    • New rate structure: A new structure should have one low rate (between 8 and 10 per cent), one standard rate (between 16 and 18 per cent) and one rate for all demerit goods.
    • The single rate on demerit goods also requires eliminating the cesses with all their complexity.

    3) The GST Council’s working needs changes

    • Consensus-based decision making in GST Council can be sustained only if there is a shared sense of participatory and inclusive governance. 
    • Nearly two decades ago, when the VAT was being introduced, Yashwant Sinha established a culture of consensual discussions on indirect taxes.
    • He did this by requiring the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers to be headed by a finance minister from an Opposition-run state government.
    • The spirit of this idea could be translated to the GST Council.

    Consider the question “Inherent importance of GST and its significance for the cooperative federalism underline the necessity for the Centre and the States to strike the win-win bargain. In light of this, examine the issues with the GST and suggest the way forward to deal with these issuef.”

    Conclusion

    Cooperative federalism is not a gesture or one-off outcome. It is, above all, a disposition, resulting from quotidian democratic practice. By rehabilitating cooperative federalism’s finest achievement — the GST — the Centre and states can help restore India’s broader economic prospects.

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  • Higher Education – RUSA, NIRF, HEFA, etc.

    NEET

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    The Tamil Nadu Assembly has passed a bill exempting the State from the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) for admission to undergraduate (UG) medical courses.

    About NEET

    The NEET has replaced the formerly All India Pre-Medical Test (AIPMT).

    It is an all-India pre-medical entrance test for students who wish to pursue undergraduate medical (MBBS), dental (BDS) and AYUSH (BAMS, BUMS, BHMS, etc.) courses.

    The exam is conducted by National Testing Agency (NTA).

    TN law: Permanent Exemption for NEET

    • The Bill exempts medical aspirants in Tamil Nadu from taking NEET examination for admission to UG degree courses in Indian medicine, dentistry and homeopathy.
    • Instead, it seeks to provide admission to such courses on the basis of marks obtained in the qualifying examination, through “Normalization methods”.
    • The aim of the Bill is to ensure “social justice, uphold equality and equal opportunity, protect all vulnerable student communities from being discriminated”.
    • It seeks to bring vulnerable student communities to the “mainstream of medical and dental education and in turn ensure a robust public health care across the state, particularly the rural areas”.

    Why TN is against NEET?

    • Non-representative: TN opposes because NEET undermined the diverse societal representation in MBBS and higher medical studies.
    • Disfavors the poor: It has favored mainly the affordable and affluent sections of the society and thwarting the dreams of underprivileged social groups.
    • Exams for the elite: It considers NEET not a fair or equitable method of admission since it favored the rich and elite sections of society.
    • Healthcare concerns: If continued, the rural and urban poor may not be able to pursue medical courses.

    Can any state legislate against NEET?

    • Admissions to medical courses are traceable to entry 25 of List III (Concurrent List), Schedule VII of the Constitution.
    • Therefore, the State can also enact a law regarding admission and amend any Central law on admission procedures.

    Views of the stakeholders appointed by TN

    • A majority of stakeholders were not in favor of the NEET requirement.
    • NEET only worked against underprivileged government school students, and had profited coaching centres and affluent students.
    • NEET had not provided any special mechanism for testing the knowledge and aptitude of the students.
    • The higher secondary examination of the State board itself was an ample basis for the selection of students for MBBS seats.

    A move inspired by a SC Judgement

    • This thinking of the State may be due to the observation made by the Supreme Court in the selection process of postgraduate (PG) courses in medicine.
    • The Medical Council of India (MCI) had prescribed certain regulations providing reservations for in-service candidates.
    • The Supreme Court struck down regulation 9(c) made by the MCI on the ground of the exercise of power beyond its statute.

    Not a similar case

    • It must be remembered that the Supreme Court was only dealing with a regulation framed by the MCI.
    • The requirement of NEET being a basic requirement for PG and UG medical courses has now been statutorily incorporated under Section 10D of the Indian Medical Council (IMC) Act.
    • When the Tamil Nadu government issued an order in 2017 providing for the reservation of 85% of the seats for students passed out from the State board it was struck down by the Madras High Court.
    • The introduction of internal reservation for government school students is under challenge before the Madras High Court. Similarly, NEET as a requirement is also pending in the Supreme Court.
    • Unless these two issues are decided, NEET cannot be removed by a State amendment.

    The bill cannot be passed

    • The present move to pass a fresh Bill on the same lines is most likely to meet the same fate.
    • The President refused to give his assent to this bill.
    • It is significant that no other State in India has sought an exemption from NEET and, therefore, exempting Tamil Nadu alone may not be possible.
    • Even among the seats allotted to the State, there is no bar for students from other States from competing or selecting colleges in Tamil Nadu.

    The bigger question

    • The question is not whether the State government can amend a law falling under the Concurrent List.
    • The question is whether the State government can exempt Section 10D of the IMC Act, which is a parliamentary law that falls under the Central List (Entry 66).
    • Moreover, the Supreme Court has also upheld NEET as a requirement.
    • Mere statistics highlighting that a majority of the stakeholders do not want NEET in Tamil Nadu is not an answer for exempting the examination.

    Again, it is State and Centre are at crossroads

    • Normally, a Bill requires assent from the Governor to become a law. Stalin’s contention is that this Bill deals with education, which is a Concurrent List subject.
    • Admissions to medical courses fall under Entry 25 of List III, Schedule VII of the Constitution, and therefore the state is competent to regulate the same.
    • Yet, as far as matters relating to the determination of standards for higher education are concerned, the central government has the power to amend a clause or repeal an Act.
    • So, just the passing of the Bill doesn’t enable the students to get exempted from writing NEET.
    • Already, Union Higher Education Secretary Amit Khare has held that if any State wants to opt out of the exam, it has to seek permission from the Supreme Court.

    Options for Tamil Nadu

    • Data is necessary only when there is power to legislate on the subject concerned.
    • Since the Bill, which will become an Act only after the President’s nod, will come into effect only from the next academic year, the battle for and against the NEET requirement will continue in courts.
    • Hopefully, the courts will determine the legality and have a definite solution to the question of medical admissions within the next year.
    • Till such time, students who wrote NEET will fill the seats under the State quota.

    Way forward: Preventing Commercialization of Medical Education

    • The time may also have come to examine whether NEET has met its purposes of improving standards and curbing commercialization and profiteering.
    • Under current norms, one quite low on the merit rank can still buy a medical seat in a private college, while those ranked higher but only good enough to get a government quota seat in a private institution can be priced out of the system.
    • The Centre should do something other than considering an exemption to Tamil Nadu.
    • It has to conceive a better system that will allow a fair admission process while preserving inter se merit and preventing rampant commercialization.

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  • Indian Ocean Power Competition

    AUKUS Partnership for Indo-Pacific

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Important International Institutions

    The Biden administration has announced a new trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. (AUKUS).

    What is AUKUS?

    • AUKUS, as the partnership is being called, will strive over the next 18 months to equip Australia with nuclear propulsion technology.
    • As part of this, Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines with help from the UK and the US.
    • It will also involve a new architecture of meetings and engagements between the three countries, as well as cooperation across emerging technologies (applied AI, quantum technologies and undersea capabilities).
    • Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines, when they deploy, will be armed with conventional weapons only and not nuclear weapons.

    Why such an alliance?

    • Tensions have been high between Australia and an increasingly assertive China, its largest trade partner.
    • Australia banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei in 2108 and its PM called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 last year.
    • China retaliated by imposing tariffs on or capping Australian exports.

    Not to substitute Quad or others

    • This alliance does not and will not supersede or outrank existing arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region such as the Quad, which the US and Australia form with India and Japan, and ASEAN.
    • AUKUS will complement these groups and others.

    Significance

    • There has been only one other time that the US has shared as “extremely sensitive” submarine propulsion technology — more than 60 years ago, back in 1958, with Great Britain.
    • The US is working to move past the 20-year war in Afghanistan and the chaotic U.S. exit from Kabul.
    • The Biden Administration has put countering China at the center of his economic and national security efforts, describing it as the biggest challenge of this era.

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  • Telecom and Postal Sector – Spectrum Allocation, Call Drops, Predatory Pricing, etc

    Four-year moratorium for AGR dues

    | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    In big bang reforms, the Union Cabinet approved a relief package for the telecom sector that includes a four-year moratorium on payment of statutory dues by telecom companies as well as allowing 100% foreign investment through the automatic route.

    What is AGR?

    • Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) is the usage and licensing fee that telecom operators are charged by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT).
    • It is divided into spectrum usage charges and licensing fees, pegged between 3-5 per cent and 8 per cent respectively.

    Why is AGR important?

    • The definition of AGR has been under litigation for 14 years.
    • While telecom companies argued that it should comprise revenue from telecom services, the DoT’s stand was that the AGR should include all revenue earned by an operator, including that from non-core telecom operations.
    • The AGR directly impacts the outgo from the pockets of telcos to the DoT as it is used to calculate the levies payable by operators.
    • Currently, telecom operators pay 8% of the AGR as licence fee, while spectrum usage charges (SUC) vary between 3-5% of AGR.

    Why do telcos need to pay out large amounts?

    • Telecom companies now owe the government not just the shortfall in AGR for the past 14 years but also an interest on that amount along with penalty and interest on the penalty.
    • While the exact amount telcos will need to shell out is not clear, as in a government affidavit filed in the top court, the DoT had calculated the outstanding licence fee to be over ₹92,000 crore.
    • However, the actual payout can go up to ₹1.4 lakh crore as the government is likely to also raise a demand for shortfall in SUC along with interest and penalty.
    • Of the total amount, it is estimated that the actual dues is about 25%, while the remaining amount is interest and penalties.

    Is there stress in the sector?

    • The telecom industry is reeling under a debt of over ₹4 lakh crore and has been seeking a relief package from the government.
    • Even the government has on various occasions admitted that the sector is indeed undergoing stress and needs support.
    • Giving a ray of hope to the telecom companies, the government recently announced setting up of a Committee of Secretaries to examine the financial stress in the sector, and recommend measures to mitigate it.

    Issue of lower tariff

    • Currently, telecom tariffs are among the lowest globally, driven down due to intense competition following the entry of Reliance in the sector.
    • The TRAI examines the merits of a “minimum charge” that operators may charge for voice and data services.

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  • Coastal Zones Management and Regulations

    Tarballs on Mumbai Coast

    Prelims Only | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    A beach in South Mumbai, saw black oil-emanating balls lying on the shore.

    What are Tarballs?

    • Tarballs are dark-coloured, sticky balls of oil that form when crude oil floats on the ocean surface.
    • Tarballs are formed by weathering of crude oil in marine environments.
    • They are transported from the open sea to the shores by sea currents and waves.
    • Tarballs are usually coin-sized and are found strewn on the beaches. Some of the balls are as big as a basketball while others are smaller globules.
    • However, over the years, they have become as big as basketballs and can weigh as much as 6-7 kgs.

    How are tarballs formed?

    • Wind and waves tear the oil slick into smaller patches that are scattered over a much wider area.
    • Various physical, chemical and biological processes (weathering) change the appearance of the oil.

    Why are tarballs found on the beaches during the monsoon?

    • It is suspected that the oil comes from the large cargo ships in the deep sea and gets pushed to the shore as tarballs during monsoon due to wind speed and direction.
    • All the oil spilt in the Arabian sea eventually gets deposited on the western coast in the form of tarballs in the monsoon season when wind speed and circulation pattern favour transportation of these tarballs.

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  • Historical and Archaeological Findings in News

    [pib] Hybodont Shark fossils found in Jaisalmer

    Prelims Only | Science Tech | Mains Paper 1: Distribution Of Key Natural Resources Across The World

    In a rare discovery, teeth of new species of Hybodont shark of Jurassic age have been reported for the first time from Jaisalmer by a team of officers from the Geological Survey of India (GSI).

    Hybodont Shark

    • Hybodonts, an extinct group of sharks, was a dominant group of fishes in both marine and fluvial environments during the Triassic and early Jurassic time.
    • However, hybodont sharks started to decline in marine environments from the Middle Jurassic onwards until they formed a relatively minor component of open-marine shark assemblages.
    • They finally became extinct at the end of the Cretaceous time 65 million years ago.

    Significance of the fossil

    • The newly discovered crushing teeth from Jaisalmer represents a new species named by the research team as Strophodusjaisalmerensis.
    • These sharks have been reported for the first time from the Jurassic rocks (approximately, between 160 and 168 million years old) of the Jaisalmer region of Rajasthan.
    • The genus Strophodus has been identified for the first time from the Indian subcontinent and is only the third such record from Asia, the other two being from Japan and Thailand.
    • It opens a new window for further research in the domain of vertebrate fossils.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Australia

    India-Australia relations

    | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Context

    A few days ago, India’s Defence Minister and External Affairs Minister held the inaugural ‘2+2’ talks with their Australian counterparts.

    Transforming relations between India-Australia

    • Both are vibrant democracies which have respect for international laws and a belief in the equality of all nations irrespective of their size and strength.
    • Both draw their congruence from a rule-based international order, believe in inclusive economic integration in the Indo-Pacific region, and face challenges from a belligerent China.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison elevated their bilateral strategic partnership to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2020.
    • Growing convergence on issues: There is a growing convergence of views on geo-strategic and geo-economic issues.
    • The convergence is backed by a robust people-to-people connection.
    • Both countries have stepped up collaborations through institutions and organisations on many issues in bilateral, trilateral, plurilateral and multilateral formats.
    • Bilateral security cooperation: Given their common security challenges and in order to enhance regional security architecture, both countries have intensified bilateral security cooperation.
    • Further, elevation of their ‘2+2’ Foreign and Defence Secretaries’ Dialogue to the ministerial level emphasises the positive trajectory of their transforming relations.
    • They have also stepped up security dialogue with key partner-countries to deepen coordination in areas where security interests are mutual.
    • The Malabar naval exercise by the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, the U.S.) is a step in this direction.
    • Partnership with like-minded countries:  Beyond bilateralism, both countries are also entering into partnerships with like-minded countries, including Indonesia, Japan and France, in a trilateral framework.
    • Trade ties: Trading between India and Australia has seen remarkable growth in recent years.
    • Two-way trade between them was valued at $24.4 billion in 2020. 
    • Trade is rapidly growing and encompasses agribusiness, infrastructure, healthcare, energy and mining, education, artificial intelligence, big data and fintech.
    • An early harvest agreement by December will pave the way for an early conclusion of a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement between both countries.

    Issues in deeper economic integration

    • High tariff on agri products in India: India has a high tariff for agriculture and dairy products which makes it difficult for Australian exporters to export these items to India.
    • Non-tariff barrier in Australia: At the same time, India faces non-tariff barriers and its skilled professionals in the Australian labour market face discrimination.

    Consider the question “A growing convergence of views on geo-strategic and geo-economic issues between Indian and Australia makes it imperative to forge a partnership guided by principles with a humane approach. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    The Quad has gained momentum in recent months. The time is ripe for these countries to deliberate on a ‘Quad+’ framework. The geo-political and geo-economic churning in international affairs makes it imperative for India and Australia to forge a partnership guided by principles with a humane approach.

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  • Slide in democratic values, India must work to fix it

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary,Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Context

    India has performed poorly in every major global democracy report in the past few years.

    India’s declining performance

    • The Freedom House Index for 2021 pushed India down four points from last year, bringing its score from 71 to 67.
    • V-Dem, the world-renowned think-tank from Sweden, has similarly downgraded India.
    • It has labelled India an “electoral autocracy”.
    • The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) study has shown India’s ranking has taken a nosedive from 27 to 53 out of 167 countries.
    • The Reporters without Borders’ Press Freedom Report has placed India 167th out of 183 countries.
    • Freedom House has also given India a score of 2 out of 4 in terms of press freedom.

    Factors pointed out by the rating agencies

    • The country has seen increased pressure being put on human rights organisations and civil rights groups.
    • Journalists and activists have been intimidated and incarcerated, and minorities have been specifically targeted.
    • Hate and polarisation are rampant.
    • The most worrying trend has been the crackdown on freedom of speech, with statistics showing a 165 per cent increase in sedition cases between 2016 and 2019.

    Issues with rejecting of global democratic indexes

    • Indian government sought to challenge the rating of EIU after it released its 2021 report earlier this year.
    • An offer made by the Indian government to supply ‘accurate’ data pertaining to the democratic index was firmly refused by the EIU.
    • Shooting the messenger: This seeming retraction of Indian democratic values in global reports and the Indian indignation regarding it seems to be a clear case of shooting the messenger.
    • Harming democracy: The Indian refusal to acknowledge and remedy them is irreparably harming its democracy.
    • Trying to influence the rating agencies to doctor data to suit us is reprehensible.
    • Difficulty for policymakers: Kaushik Basu, formerly the chief economist of the World Bank, commenting on this episode has said that the tendency of fabricating data to present an alternative image has beset the Indian administration.
    • Not showcasing actual data is making it difficult for policymakers to attempt to remedy the situation.

    Way forward

    •  A committee of secretaries’ meeting on January 30, 2020 discussed how India fared on various important parameters based on 32 internationally recognised indices in order to improve the performance on these indices.
    • The desire to introspect and analyse what needs to be done to improve is correct and laudable.
    •  Let NITI Aayog and all concerned organisations focus on improving our performance in all the declining indicators.

    Consider the question “Ranking of the various agencies shows the declining trend of democratic values in India. What are the reasons for such decline?vSuggest the steps to arrest this decline.” 

    Conclusion

    Instead of denying these rankings and the reports of these agencies, India must work on fixing them.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-SCO

    Can the SCO be the regional body that stabilizes Afghanistan?

    IOCRop-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    On the face of it, the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) this week in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, is well placed to lead the stabilization of Afghanistan after the American retreat.

    About SCO

    • After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the then security and economic architecture in the Eurasian region dissolved and new structures had to come up.
    • The original Shanghai Five were China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.
    • The SCO was formed in 2001, with Uzbekistan included. It expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan.
    • Since its formation, the SCO has focused on regional non-traditional security, with counter-terrorism as a priority.
    • The fight against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism has become its mantra. Today, areas of cooperation include themes such as economics and culture.

    India’s and the SCO

    • India and Pakistan both were observer countries.
    • While Central Asian countries and China were not in favor of expansion initially, the main supporter — of India’s entry in particular — was Russia.
    • A widely held view is that Russia’s growing unease about an increasingly powerful China prompted it to push for its expansion.
    • From 2009 onwards, Russia officially supported India’s ambition to join the SCO. China then asked for its all-weather friend Pakistan’s entry.

    Afghanistan and SCO

    • Afghanistan has been engaged with the SCO for over 15 years.
    • In 2012, Afghanistan became an observer in the SCO when then-Afghan president Hamid Karzai visited China.
    • In 2015, Kabul applied for full membership in the group.
    • Kabul sought to be a member of the SCO as it believes that it is a natural candidate.
    • Geographically, Afghanistan is a part of the SCO region.

    Limited (or No) progress made by SCO

    • For all the political hype, the SCO has not deepened regionalism in Central Asia.
    • Two decades after its formation — it was set up just weeks before the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington — the institutional promise of the SCO remains just that — a promise.
    • Seen from the subcontinent, the SCO certainly looks better than the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
    • That India and Pakistan, whose differences have prevented even regular meetings of SAARC, are actively participating in the SCO, would point to its attractiveness.
    • But then SAARC is such a low bar.

    Opportunities for role-play in Afghanistan

    The crisis in Afghanistan presents a major opportunity for the SCO to realize its regional ambitions.

    • Involvement of regional superpowers: The SCO’s importance for Afghanistan seems self-evident when you look at its sponsors and members. Its founding leaders are the two great powers of the east — Russia and China.
    • Neighborhood are members: Its other initial members were Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan to the north and northeast of Afghanistan.
    • Observers vested interest: Besides Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus and Mongolia are observers. Iran is said to be on track for full membership.
    • Many dialogue partners: The SCO has a number of “dialogue partners”. They include Armenia and Azerbaijan from the neighboring Caucasus region and Turkey a step further to the West. Nepal and Sri Lanka from the subcontinent and Cambodia from southeast Asia are also dialogue partners.

    Issues with SCO

    • China centrism: For an organization that bears the name of Shanghai, but is focused on Central Asia, its associates look disparate.
    • Lack of coherence: The Central Asian members of the SCO have quarrels of their own, and have struggled to develop collective approaches to their common regional security challenges.
    • Dint go beyond dialogues: As it broadened its membership, the SCO has, unsurprisingly, struggled to deepen institutional cooperation.
    • Not comprehensive: There is also one important country missing in the mix. It is Turkmenistan, which shares an 800 km border with Afghanistan and a 1,150 km border with Iran.
    • Neutrality of members: The organizing principle of Turkmenistan rulers is absolute “neutrality” — think of it as an extreme form of “non-alignment”. It refuses to join any regional institution, political or military.
    • Individual interests: Russia’s effort to build a regional institution in its Central Asian periphery ran parallel to its plans for the so-called “strategic triangle” with China and India. India and Pakistan, needless to say, are poles apart on the Taliban.

    No common interest in Afghan Peace

    • The US military retreat from Afghanistan has brought cheer to both Moscow and Beijing, although publicly they criticize President Joe Biden’s hasty retreat.
    • The US retreat might weaken the glue that binds Moscow and Beijing in Central Asia or tightens it.
    • Although Russia and China are closer to each other than ever before, their interests are not entirely the same in Central Asia.

    Russian alternatives to SCO

    (1) Central Security Treaty Organisation

    • While military confidence-building measures have grown under the SCO banner, Russia had its own security organisation for the region, called the Central Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
    • Three of the SCO members — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan — along with Armenia and Belarus are members of the CSTO.
    • Russia sees itself as the sole protector of the former Soviet Republics and may not be ready to share that role with China — “yes” to coordination, but “no” to a Sino-Russian security dyarchy.

    (2) Eurasian Economic Union

    • Moscow also appears reluctant to back Chinese proposals to promote trade integration under the SCO banner; it prefers the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) under its own leadership.
    • China is not a member of either CSTO or EAEU. This is one reason for the weakness of SCO regionalism.

    Other deterrents

    (1) Affinity with Taliban

    • China has openly admitted to cooperating with the Taliban by restoring all formal diplomatic ties. It is the first such country to acknowledge the Taliban.
    • Turkmenistan too, which is not part of SCO, has been quite open to engaging the Taliban in sync with its principles of neutrality.
    • Some Russian analysts see Turkmenistan as the potential weak link in the defense against the Taliban’s potential threats to the region.
    • Uzbekistan seems open to a cautious engagement with the Taliban.

    (2) Iranian aspirations for unwarranted interference (just like Turkey does regarding Kashmir)

    • Iran, which has ethnic and linguistic links with the Persian-speaking Tajiks, appears equally worried about the Taliban’s policies towards minorities.
    • As Moscow and Beijing, Tehran was happy to see the Americans leave in humiliation and appeared hopeful of a positive engagement with the Taliban.
    • Those hopes may have been suspended for now, if not discarded.

    What can the SCO do now?

    • The Afghanistan debacle presents an opportunity for the SCO to play a constructive role in meeting the region’s burgeoning security challenge.
    • Providing humanitarian relief, tending to refugees, facilitating an inclusive dialogue and national reconciliation constitute immediate and long-term goals in which the organization can fill a role.
    • The SCO can also pressure the Taliban to share power with other domestic actors and refrain from providing sanctuary to foreign terror organizations (through foreign funds from Saudi*).
    • It can suspend Afghanistan’s observer status, curtail border traffic or withhold recognition, investments, and aid, should Kabul be found wanting.

    Way forward

    • While the SCO is not an impressive regional institution, it remains an important diplomatic forum.
    • India has sought to make full use of the SCO’s diplomatic possibilities without any illusions about its effectiveness.
    • At the SCO summit this week, PM Modi would remind other leaders of the “three evils” that the SCO set out to defeat — terrorism, extremism, and separatism.
    • Few would disagree that the Taliban embodied all the three sins in the past. Today, the Taliban and its mentor Pakistan say the sinner wants to become a saint.
    • India must focus on finding common ground with those members of the SCO who do share India’s concerns about Afghanistan.

    Conclusion

    • Given this divergence, it is unlikely that the SCO can come up with a “regional solution” for the Afghan crisis.
    • The only real Afghan convergence today is between Pakistan and China.
    • Expect them to try and nudge the SCO towards a positive engagement with the Taliban.

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