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The article discusses the future pushback against China in South Asia and Indo-Pacific as Quad gains more momentum. 

Context

Recently, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Li Jiming, warned Dhaka that there will be “substantial damage” in bilateral ties between China and Bangladesh if the latter joins the Quad.

Bangladesh’s reaction

• Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen promptly and publicly challenged the Chinese envoy’s statement, underlining categorically that Dhaka pursues an independent foreign policy. 
• That China’s remarks would reverberate far beyond South Asia was expected and perhaps intended.
• The spokesperson of U.S. State Department remarked, “What we would say is that we respect Bangladesh’s sovereignty and we respect Bangladesh’s right to make foreign policy decisions for itself.”

Implications for South Asia and Info-Pacific

• With its message to Bangladesh, Beijing was laying down a marker that nations should desist from engaging with the Quad.
• This episode captures the emerging fault lines in South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
• For all its attempts to play down the relevance of the Quad, Beijing realises that the grouping, with all its weaknesses, is emerging as a reality and there is little it can do to prevent that.
• And so, it is agitated about Quad’s future role and its potential success in offering the regional states an alternative to its own strong-arm tactics.

About Quad’s agenda

• The Quad member states are figuring out a cohesive agenda amongst themselves and there are no plans for an expansion.
• There is a desire to work with like-minded nations but that can only happen if the four members of the Quad can build a credible platform first.
• Quad has not asked any country to join and no one has shown an interest.
• But China wants to ensure that after failing in its initial attempt to prevent the Quad from gaining any traction.
• Its message is well understood by other states who may harbour any desire of working closely with the Quad members.

Way forward

• Beijing has failed to prevent nations from the West to the East from coming out with their Indo-Pacific strategies.
• It has failed to prevent the operationalisation of the Quad, and now it might be worried about other nations in the region thinking of engaging with the Quad more proactively.
• Even Bangladesh is planning to come out with its own Indo-Pacific strategy and Beijing has now warned Dhaka that a close cooperation with the Quad should not be part of the policy mix.
•  As the Quad gains more momentum and the churn in the waters of the Indo-Pacific leads to new countervailing coalitions against China, Beijing’s belligerence can only be expected to grow.

Conclusion

Beijing is more likely to demand clear-cut foreign policy choices from its regional interlocutors, as its warning to Bangladesh underscores. But as Dhaka’s robust response makes it clear, states are more likely to push back than become subservient to Chinese largesse.

The article takes an overview of the growing convergence of India’s interest with the West in the changing geopolitical scenario and opportunities it offers to India.

Significance of G-7 Summit for India

• Summit of the G-7, the Group of Seven industrial countries, will be hosted by the United Kingdom this week.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi will participate digitally in this summit.
• This participation also marks an important step towards a new global compact between India and the West.
• The global financial crisis of 2008, the rapid rise of China, divisions within the West during the Trump years, and the chaotic response in North America and Europe to the Covid-19 pandemic, were the factors that indicated the decline of the West.
• In his first tour abroad as the US president wants to demonstrate that the collective West is an enduring force to reckon with under renewed American leadership.
• For India, the G-7 summit is an opportunity to expand the global dimension of India’s growing partnerships with the US and Europe.

Convergence of interests between India and the West

• The challenges from an increasingly aggressive China, the urgency of mitigating climate change, and the construction of a post-pandemic international order are generating convergence between the interests of India and the West.
• India’s current engagement with the G-7 is about global issues.
• The idea of a global democratic coalition that is based more broadly than the geographic West has gained ground in recent years.
• And India is at the very heart of that Western calculus.
• For India, too, the G-7summit comes amidst intensifying strategic cooperation with the West.
• This includes strong bilateral strategic cooperation with the US, France, UK as well as the Quad and the trilateral partnerships with France and Australia as well as Japan and Australia.
• India has also stepped up its engagement with the European Union.

China factor

• India’s increasing engagement with the US and the West has been triggered in part by the continuous deterioration of the relationship with China.
• Besides the threat to territorial security, India finds that its hopes for strong global cooperation with China have taken a big beating in recent years.
• China is the only great power that does not support India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council and blocks India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
• At the end of the Cold War, India believed that China was a natural partner in the construction of a multipolar world.
• India now can’t escape the conclusion that China is the greatest obstacle to India’s global aspirations and the West is an emerging partner.
•  India has relied on Western support to fend off China’s effort to internationalise the Kashmir question after the 2019 constitutional changes.
• India walked away from RCEP due to the growing trade imbalance with China and the negative impact of Chinese imports on India’s domestic manufacturing.
• After China’s aggression in Ladakh last April, India has also sought to actively limit its exposure to Chinese investments and technology.

Way forward

• The convergence of interests between India and the West does not mean the two sides will agree on everything.
•  There are many areas of continuing divergence within the West — from the economic role of the state to the democratic regulation of social media and the technology giants.
• It will surely not be easy translating the broad convergences between India and the West into tangible cooperation.
• That would require sustained negotiations on converting shared interests.

Consider the question “The idea of a global democratic coalition that is based more broadly than the geographic West has gained ground in recent years. This offers India an opportunity to expand the global dimension of India’s growing partnerships with the US and Europe. Comment.”

Conclusion

While India continues to strengthen its partnerships in Asia and the global south, a more productive partnership with the West helps secure a growing array of India’s national interests and adds a new depth to India’s international relations.