Introduction

The India-China equation has once again come into focus with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to India. Coming at a time when Donald Trump’s unpredictable moves are reshaping US–China relations and India faces pressure over its Russian oil purchases, the visit is being viewed as a tactical outreach by Beijing. For the first time since the Galwan clash, both sides agreed on a 10-point understanding, from reopening border trade points to restarting stalled dialogues. Yet, beneath the gestures of cooperation, deep mistrust lingers: unresolved tensions in Ladakh, Beijing’s quiet backing of Pakistan, and economic vulnerabilities that India cannot ignore. The central question remains, is this the start of a cautious reset, or will rivalry continue to define the relationship?

Current State of India-China Relationship

• A Cautious Thaw: Signs of easing after years of strain post-2020 Galwan clashes. The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister and the expected Modi–Xi meeting at the SCO summit reflect cautious engagement.
• Unfinished Border Business: 
  1. Unfinished disengagement: Restrictions continue on Indian troop patrolling and herdsmen grazing in Ladakh buffer zones.
  2. De-escalation talks: Both sides have now agreed to discuss principles and modalities of de-escalation, but with little progress so far.
  3. Historical baggage: From the 1962 war to Doklam and Galwan, border issues repeatedly resurface as the defining irritant.
• Persistent Trust Deficit: India remains wary of China’s military links with Pakistan, dam projects on the Brahmaputra, and use of economic dependencies such as rare-earths and critical technologies as leverage.

China–Pakistan Axis and India’s Security Concerns

1. Operation Sindoor 2025: China provided Pakistan with real-time ISR, command-and-control integration, and advanced weaponry.
2. Extended theatre: While not directly engaging militarily, China’s operational support widened the conflict spectrum.
3. Strategic consequences: India now faces a two-front dynamic made more acute by China’s active involvement.

Trade Dependence Shaping Geopolitical Weakness

1. Weaponisation of dependencies: China has denied India supplies of rare-earth magnets, fertilisers, tunnel-boring machines.
2. Industrial impact: Foxconn withdrew hundreds of Chinese technicians under pressure from Beijing.
3. Hydropower concerns: A massive dam, thrice the size of Three Gorges, threatens India’s lower riparian interests.

Can tactical outreach substitute for structural resolution?

1. Wang Yi’s visit: Led to a 10-point understanding including resumption of flights, border trade, and talks on border issues.
2. Tactical gestures: China seeks to ease tensions but has not offered substantive concessions on India’s concerns.
3. India’s position: PM Modi emphasised the need for “stable, predictable and constructive” relations, but only grounded in realism.

Why outright conflict remains unlikely

1. Geographical constraints: The Himalayas pose immense logistical challenges for a sustained full-scale war.
2. China’s strategic calculus: Since 1979, Beijing has avoided wars to focus on economic growth.
3. Cost of conflict: War with India risks derailing China’s “great power” ambitions vis-à-vis the US.

The limits of aligning with China against the US

1. US factor: Trump’s inconsistent China policy has unsettled India’s geopolitical calculations.
2. Chinese spin: Beijing portrayed India as siding with it against “unilateral bullying” (implicitly the US).
3. MEA clarification: India reaffirmed no change in its One-China policy stance, signalling caution.

Way Forward

1. Strengthen Border Posture: Accelerate infrastructure and surveillance along LAC to counter tactical surprises.
2. Diversify Dependencies: Invest in domestic capacity for critical minerals, semiconductors, and rare earths.
3. Engage but Verify: Continue talks on de-escalation and economic ties, but measure outcomes, not promises.
4. Diplomatic Balancing: Maintain strategic autonomy while leveraging QUAD, SCO, BRICS without being trapped in binaries.
5. Water Security Mechanisms: Push for institutionalised basin-sharing frameworks on Brahmaputra with multilateral backing.

Conclusion

The India-China relationship sits at a crossroads. While tactical outreach such as Wang Yi’s visit creates openings for engagement, the structural drivers of mistrust remain too deep for a true reset. India cannot overlook the challenges of border tensions, economic weaponisation, and China-Pakistan collusion. At the same time, the high costs of conflict and shared economic interests provide space for pragmatic management. The way forward lies in carefully calibrated diplomacy, neither falling into the trap of confrontation nor harbouring illusions of a reset.

Mapping microthemes

1. GS Paper II (IR): India-China relations, India-US-China triangle, border disputes, strategic autonomy.
2. GS Paper III (Security): Two-front challenge, defence preparedness, technology denial regimes.
3. GS Paper IV (Ethics): Diplomacy, realpolitik vs idealism in foreign policy.

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