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  • Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

    Brace for higher interest rates

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Context

    Inflation has now remained above the RBI’s upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent for four months in a row.

    Broad based inflation

    • The second-order impact of higher fuel prices is also visible as inflation in transport and communication surged to nearly 11 per cent, from 8 per cent in the previous month.
    • The latest data also indicates that inflation is becoming broad-based. 
    • With demand rebounding, the pass-through of higher input costs is also gaining momentum.
    • Considering that demand for goods recovered faster than services, goods producers passed on input costs to consumers.
    • But as services recover, there will be greater pass-through of prices to consumers in the coming months.
    • While there may be a slight moderation, inflation is expected to remain above the RBI’s threshold of 6 per cent in the coming months.
    • The Ukraine conflict continues to impact markets for foodgrains and vegetable oils.
    • Rising fertiliser prices are likely to push up farmers’ production costs, leading to high food prices.
    • While the government has extended price support through higher subsidies, if this will be enough to cool prices needs to be seen.

    Inflation targeting by the RBI

    • With sticky crude oil prices and continuing supply-side disruptions amplified by the Covid-induced lockdowns in China, the RBI has rightly reverted its focus on inflation targeting.
    • This is needed as central banks around the world are pursuing tight monetary policies to counter inflation.
    • The US Fed followed its 25 basis points hike by another 50 basis points rise in May.
    • These will be followed by hikes of similar magnitude in the coming months.
    • In its April policy, the RBI announced the withdrawal of excess liquidity but did not raise the policy rate.
    • Rate hikes by RBI: The RBI is now likely to respond with aggressive rate hikes to prevent the price spiral from getting entrenched.
    • The continued strength of the dollar index and sharp rupee depreciation in the last few days could impose further pressure on prices through higher imported inflation.
    • Withdrawal of liquidity support: In addition to calibrated rate hikes, the RBI needs to fast-track the withdrawal of the ultra-accommodative liquidity support provided during the pandemic.

    Implications

    • Discretionary spending: Rising inflation will cut back discretionary spending and adversely impact consumption that had only just started picking up.
    • Recession concerns: There are concerns about a recession in advanced economies as rising prices have started manifesting in a decline in purchasing power and a fall in consumer sentiments.
    • The demand destruction could trigger a moderation in prices.
    • Base metals prices have eased from the peak seen in the last few months.

    Conclusion

    Monetary policy support needs to be accompanied by fiscal support measures. The policy response will have to be tailored to the evolving geopolitical situation and the paths of commodity and food prices while balancing the imperatives of fiscal consolidation.

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  • Food Procurement and Distribution – PDS & NFSA, Shanta Kumar Committee, FCI restructuring, Buffer stock, etc.

    Inflation in India

    op-ed snap | Agriculture | Mains Paper 3: Issues Related To Farm Subsidies & Msp

    Context

    Recently, the RBI raised the repo rate by 40 basis points (bps) and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps with a view to tame inflation.

    How effective would be the rate hike in taming the inflation?

    • High inflation is always an implicit tax on the poor and those who keep their savings in banks.
    • Will the increases in the repo rate and CRR control inflation, especially food inflation?
    • The RBI has been behind the curve by at least by 4-to 5 months, and its optimism in controlling inflation in the earlier meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee was somewhat misplaced.
    • The reason for this is that food prices globally are scaling new peaks as per the FAO’s food price index.
    • The disruptions caused by the pandemic and now the Russia-Ukraine war are contributing to this escalation in food prices.
    • India cannot remain insulated from this phenomenon.

    Opportunities and challenges for India

    • Record wheat export: For the first time in the history of Indian agriculture, cereal exports have already crossed a record high of 31 million metric tonnes (MMT) at $13 billion (FY22), and the same cereal wonder may be repeated this fiscal (FY23).
    • Among cereals, wheat exports have witnessed an unprecedented growth of more than 273 per cent, jumping nearly fourfold from $0.56 billion (or 2 MMT) in FY21 to $2.1 billion (or 7.8 MMT) in FY22.
    • Rice exports have crossed 20 MMT in FY22 in a global market of 50 MMT.
    • Some of the concerns on the wheat front are genuine, and we need to realise that climate change is already knocking on our doors.
    • With every one degree Celsius rise in temperatures, wheat yields are likely to suffer by about 5 MMT, as per earlier IPCC reports.
    • This calls for massive investments in agri-R&D to find heat-resistant varieties of wheat and also create models for “climate-smart” agriculture. We are way behind the curve on this.

    Need for rationalising food subsidy

    • India distribute free food to 800 million Indians, with a food subsidy bill that is likely to cross Rs 2.8 lakh crore this fiscal out of the Centre’s net tax revenue of about Rs 20 lakh crore in FY23.
    • Reducing coverage: What needs to be done targeting only those below the poverty line for free or subsidised food and charging a reasonable price, say 90 per cent of MSP, from those who are above the poverty line.
    • Giving an option to beneficiaries to receive cash in their Jan Dhan accounts (equivalent to MSP plus 20 per cent) in lieu of grains can be considered.
    • This is permitted under NFSA and by doing so, he can save on the burgeoning food subsidy bill.

    Conclusion

    Indian farmers need access to global markets to augment their incomes, and the government must facilitate Indian farmers to develop more efficient export value chains by minimising marketing costs and investing in efficient logistics for exports.

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  • Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

    India’s U-turn on Wheat Exports

    | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth

    The Union commerce ministry was preparing to send delegations abroad to boost the country’s wheat exports, when the government abruptly banned its exports on 14 May.

    Why did India ban the export of wheat?

    • Record retail inflation has punctured India’s export hopes.
    • While wheat prices are up nearly 20%, prices of essential food items such as flour have risen nearly 15% last year.
    • Prices of other food items that use wheat, like bread and biscuits, have surged, too.
    • Heatwaves in the latter part of March, especially in northwest India, impacted the production of foodgrains.

    Is India staring at a food shortage?

    • India’s grain stocks are well above the buffer levels and the decision to regulate wheat exports was taken largely to check prices and curb hoarding.
    • The public distribution system in the country would be run smoothly.
    • However, the government has replaced wheat with rice in the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana scheme for 2022-23.
    • The effort clearly is a response to the reduced availability of wheat.

    What has been the global reaction to the ban?

    • Agriculture ministers from G7 condemned India’s decision to withhold wheat exports amid a global grain shortage.
    • India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer and was expected to fill the gap created because of the Ukraine war.
    • However, wheat exports will be allowed in cases where an irrevocable letter of credit has already been issued.

    How will the ban affect India’s neighbors?

    • The export control will help India guide wheat trade in a certain direction.
    • Even with the ban, there is a window open for neighbouring countries.
    • The export will be allowed to other countries “based on the request of their governments”.
    • This window is crucial for Sri Lanka because the country is facing an economic crisis.
    • Also, Bangladesh and Nepal have traditionally relied on Indian wheat.

    What is the impact on farmers and traders?

    • The ban has deprived Indian wheat traders the opportunity to gain from the global grain shortage.
    • It may have an unfavorable impact on wheat farmers too.
    • Market prices of wheat had soared past the minimum support price (MSP) in recent months.

    Issues with the ban

    • This ban has impacted the credibility of India as a reliable supplier of anything in global markets.
    • It conveys that we don’t have any credible export policy as it can turn its back at the drop of a hat.
    • More interestingly, it also reflects a deep-rooted consumer bias in India’s trade policies.
    • It is this consumer bias that indirectly becomes anti-farmer. This ban deprives farmers from profit-making.
    • It only shows the hollowness of agri-trade policies and dreams of doubling agri-exports.
    • The export ban also reflects poorly on India’s image in playing its shared global responsibility amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

    Way forward

    • It may be recognised that inflation is a global phenomenon today caused by excessive liquidity injected by central banks and loose fiscal policies around the world.
    • India’s wheat export ban will not help tame inflation at home.
    • The Government could have announced a bonus of Rs 200-250/quintal on top of MSP to augment its wheat procurement.
    • The govt could have calibrated exports by putting some minimum export price (MEP).

    Back2Basics:

    How the Central and State governments procure Wheat?

     

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  • Defence Sector – DPP, Missions, Schemes, Security Forces, etc.

    Back in news: Chief of Defence Staff (CDS)

    | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: Various Security Forces, Agencies & Their Mandates

    The Union government is reassessing the concept of the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) leading to a delay in the appointment to the post.

    The post of CDS has also been lying vacant since the demise of Late. Gen. Bipin Rawat.

    Office of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS)

    • The CDS is a high military office that oversees and coordinates the working of the three Services, and offers seamless tri-service views and single-point advice to the Executive.
    • On long-term it provides for defence planning and management, including manpower, equipment and strategy, and above all, “joint manship” in operations.
    • In most democracies, the CDS is seen as being above inter-Service rivalries and the immediate operational preoccupations of the individual military chiefs.
    • The role of the CDS becomes critical in times of conflict.

    Duties and Functions of the CDS

    The Ministry of Defence has outlined various functions and duties for the post of CDS:

    • To head the Department of Military Affairs in Ministry of Defence and function as its Secretary.
    • To act as the Principal Military Advisor to Raksha Mantri on all Tri-Service matters.
    • To function as the Permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee
    • To administer the Tri-Service organizations/agencies/commands.
    • To be a member of Defence Acquisition Council chaired by Raksha Mantri.
    • To function as the Military Advisor to the Nuclear Command Authority.
    • To bring about jointness in operation, logistics, transport, training, support services, communications, repairs and maintenance, etc of the three Services.
    • To implement Five-Year Defence Capital Acquisition Plan and Two-Year roll-on Annual Acquisition Plans, as a follow up of Integrated Capability Development Plan.
    • To bring about reforms in the functioning of three Services with the aim to augment combat capabilities of the Armed Forces by reducing wasteful expenditure.

    Why need CDS?

    • Tri-services coordination: The creation of the CDS will eventually lead to the formation of tri-service theatre commands intended to create vertical integration of the three forces.
    • Single-point military advisory: The CDS will be a single-point military adviser to the government and synergise long term planning, procurements, training and logistics of the three Services.
    • Efforts saving: This is expected to save money by avoiding duplication between the Services, at a time of shrinking capital expenditure within the defence budget.
    • Military diplomacy: This is today supporting conventional diplomacy. That can’t be done by different Services.

     

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  • Innovations in Biotechnology and Medical Sciences

    RNA granules to treat neurodegenerative disorders

    Prelims Only | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Achievements Of Indians In S&T

    Researchers at IISc Bangalore have identified a protein in yeast cells that dissolves RNA-protein complexes, also known as RNA granules.

    What is mRNA?

    • Messenger RNA (mRNA) is a single-stranded RNA (Ribo Nucleic Acid) molecule that is complementary to one of the DNA strands of a gene.
    • The mRNA is an RNA version of the gene that leaves the cell nucleus and moves to the cytoplasm where proteins are made.
    • During protein synthesis, an organelle called a ribosome moves along the mRNA, reads its base sequence, and uses the genetic code to translate each three-base triplet, or codon, into its corresponding amino acid.

    What are RNA granules?

    • Inside the cytoplasm of any cell there are structures made of messenger RNA (mRNA) and proteins known as RNA granules.
    • Unlike other structures in the cell (such as mitochondria), the RNA granules are not covered and confined by a membrane.
    • This makes them highly dynamic in nature, thereby allowing them to constantly exchange components with the surrounding.
    • RNA granules are present in the cytoplasm at low numbers under normal conditions but increase in number and size under stressful conditions including diseases.

    Why are they unique?

    • A defining feature which does not change from one organism to another (conserved) of the RNA granule protein components is the presence of stretches containing repeats of certain amino acids.
    • Such stretches are referred to as low complexity regions.
    • Repeats of arginine (R), glycine (G) and glycine (G) — known as RGG — are an example of low complexity sequence.

    Functions of RNA granules

    • Messenger RNAs are converted to proteins (building blocks of the cell) by the process of translation.
    • RNA granules determine messenger RNA (mRNA) fate by deciding when and how much protein would be produced from mRNA.
    • Protein synthesis is a multi-step and energy-expensive process.
    • Therefore, a common strategy used by cells when it encounters unfavorable conditions is to shut down protein production and conserve energy to deal with a stressful situation.
    • RNA granules help in the process of shutting down protein production.
    • Some RNA granule types (such as Processing bodies or P-bodies) not only regulate protein production but also accomplish degradation and elimination of the mRNAs, which in turn helps in reducing protein production.

    What is the recent study?

    • Researchers concluded that low complexity sequences which normally promote granule formation, in this case promote the disintegration of RNA granules in yeast cells.
    • They observed that the identified protein Sbp1 is specific for dissolving P-bodies and not stress granules which are related RNA granule type also present in the cytoplasm.

    Significance of the study

    • This study has highlighted the potential of amino acid repeats (RGG) as a therapeutic intervention.
    • The study may help analyze the effect of repeat sequences in genetically engineered mice that accumulate insoluble pathological aggregates in brain cells.
    • This could possibly help in treating neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease.

     

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  • Modern Indian History-Events and Personalities

    Devasahayam Pillai: first Indian layman to be declared a Saint by Vatican

    Prelims Only | History | Mains Paper 1: Arts & Culture

    Pope Francis canonised Devasahayam Pillai as a Catholic Saint during an event in St Peter’s Basilica.

    Who was Devasahayam Pillai?

    • Devasahayam was born on April 23, 1712 in Nattalam village in Kanyakumari district, and went on to serve in the court of Marthanda Varma of Travancore.
    • After meeting a Dutch naval commander at the court, Devasahayam was baptised in 1745, and assumed the name ‘Lazarus’, meaning ‘God is my help’.

    His works

    • While preaching, he particularly insisted on the equality of all people, despite caste differences.
    • His conversion did not go well with the heads of his native religion.
    • False charges of treason and espionage were brought against him and he was divested of his post in the royal administration.
    • On January 14, 1752, Devasahayam was shot dead in the Aralvaimozhy forest.
    • Since then, he is widely considered a martyr, and his mortal remains were interred inside what is now Saint Francis Xavier’s Cathedral in Kottar, Nagercoil.

    Other canonized saints in India

    • Of the eleven, Gonsalo Garcia, born in India to Portuguese parents in Mumbai in 1557, is considered to have been the first India-born saint.
    • In 2008, Kerala-born Sister Alphonsa was declared as the first woman Catholic saint from India.
    • Mother Teresa had a fast track to sainthood when she was canonized in 2016.

     

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  • Public opinion cannot influence jurisprudence

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Comparison Of The Indian Constitutional Scheme With That Of Other Countries,Executive & Judiciary,Seperation Of Power

    Context

    On May 5, 2022, the current affairs site politico.com obtained the draft opinion of Justice Samuel Alito, apparently speaking for the majority of the judges of the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) overruling Roe v Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood v Casey (1992). These two previously decided cases enable women in the US to access abortions, albeit with some restrictions.

    Background of the US Supreme Court

    • SCOTUS was established on March 4, 1789.
    • The almost 225-year-old court, founded to interpret the American constitution that was adopted in 1789, has a long history of being an ideologically divided court, hearing deeply contentious political issues.
    • Within both the polity and law in the US, no issue is as emotive and divisive as matters related to abortion.
    • At present there is the 6-3 divide in the SCOTUS, with the conservatives constituting the majority.
    • Paying attention to the public opinion: Conservative judges also frame the regulation of abortion as a state legislative rights issue, giving enormous weight to the apparent public opinion within those states.

    Paying attention to the public opinion

    • In the draft opinion that was leaked, after being circulated to the other eight judges of SCOTUS, Justice Alito writes “We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” adding, “it is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.
    • Here is how the issue is initially framed: Legislatures in states must be able to adopt laws on abortion as they see fit.
    • The justification offered is in the context of the legitimacy of such laws being made by the will of the people, through their representatives.
    •  Justice Alito clearly sees this an issue for the legislature to decide based on the will of the voters.

    Why public opinion is not a legitimate parameter for adjudicating issues of rights

    • Against the separation of power: Across jurisdictions, in the constitutional scheme of separation of powers, the executive, legislature and judiciary are expected to play different roles.
    • The executive to govern using the rule of law, the legislature to make law and the judiciary to ensure that those laws are in consonance with constitutional values.
    • The introduction of public opinion and deference to the legislature as a valid basis for adjudication by constitutional courts leads to extraordinary conclusions.
    • The virtue of constitutional courts is that they are expected to be insulated from public opinion.
    • In that regard, they are freed from the vagaries of the will of the voters and enjoy the quiet introspection and justification through legal reasoning that the law creates space for.

    Conclusion

    The notion that constitutional courts should take  the will of voters into account is at odds with the understanding of courts elsewhere, like in India.

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  • J&K – The issues around the state

    With delimitation over, a look at the slate for J&K

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Federalism,Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    Context

    Fresh delimitation was necessary for Jammu and Kashmir since the State had been divided into two Union Territories and elections could only be held under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019.

    Issues with the report of the Delimitation Commission

    • The central question of why Jammu has gained six Assembly seats and the Valley only one has been brushed under general remarks on methodology with no explanation of how that methodology was applied.
    • Nor does it explain why Jammu’s Muslim-majority seats now comprise less than a quarter of the province’s total seats, though Muslims comprise over a third of the province’s population.
    • The commission’s recommendations further complicate the issue.
    • They propose that the President nominate Pandit migrants to two Assembly seats — why is there no reference to Pandits who remain in the Valley?
    • Indeed, the only overarching guideline which the report does describe in some detail is the commission’s desire to match the boundaries of Assembly and parliamentary constituencies.
    • Most of these questions were addressed to the commission during its consultation phase.
    •  By choosing not to do so they lost a valuable opportunity to display transparency and dispel suspicion of bias.

    Way forward

    • The only hope for a peace process in Jammu and Kashmir is if there is a clean election, statehood is speedily restored, and the new Assembly determines whether or in which form special status is required. 
    • The better option is to hold elections for existing constituencies and let the new assembly approve or query the delimitation report.
    • In fact, the commission itself proposed that the report be placed before the legislative assembly, a recommendation that makes sense only if new delimitation comes into force after and not before elections.
    • Urgent as elections are, attention to fundamental freedoms is even more important.

    Conclusion

    The peace process in Jammu and Kashmir needs to address the concerns of the people related to the restoration of statehood, and clean elections.

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  • Civil Services Reforms

    Actions that corrode the steel frame of India

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Civil Service

    Context

    A letter war between two sets of retired public officials (civil servants, judges and army officers), concerning the prevailing political and social situation in the country, has been widely reported in the media.

    Role of civil service

    • It is the police and magistracy, judicial courts and other regulatory agencies — not politicians — which have been authorised and empowered by law to take preventive action against potential troublemakers, enforce the laws relating to criminal, economic and other offences, and maintain public order.
    • In mature democracies, self-respecting public officials normally discharge their constitutional and legal responsibilities with honesty, integrity and their own conscience, firmly resisting the dictates of the vested interests.

    Deterioration in the standard of civil service

    • The deterioration in standards was very visible during the National Emergency declared in 1975.
    • The civil services, like other institutions including the judiciary, just caved in; the trend might have accelerated over the years.
    • Now, no one even talks of civil service neutrality.
    • Earlier, during communal or caste riots, the Administration focused on quelling the disturbances and restoring peace in the affected locality, without ever favouring one group over the other.
    • Now, there are allegations of local officers taking sides in a conflict.
    • A civil servant’s pliant and submissive behaviour means an end to civil service neutrality and the norms and values that this trait demands, does not seem to bother either the political or bureaucratic leadership.
    • Despite the protection and safeguards in Article 311 of the Constitution, politicians could have a civil servant placed in an inconvenient position or even punish him.

    Norms and values associated with a civil servant

    • Norms: The norms that define neutrality are: independence of thought and action; honest and objective advice; candour and ,‘speaking truth to power’.
    • Values: Associated with these norms are the personal values that a civil servant cherishes or ought to cherish, namely, self-respect, integrity, professional pride and dignity.
    • All these together contribute to the enhancement of the quality of administration that benefits society and the people.

    Conclusion

    Constitutional morality is not a natural sentiment,” wrote B.R. Ambedkar, the architect of the Constitution and added, “It has to be cultivated. We must realise that our people have yet to learn it. Democracy in India is only a top dressing on an Indian soil which is essentially undemocratic.”

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  • Monsoon Updates

    What is Onset of Monsoon?

    | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 1: Geographical Features & Their Location

    The monsoon is slated to make its earliest arrival in 13 years over Kerala, informs the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

    What does the “Onset of Monsoon” mean?

    • The onset of the monsoon over Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month, June to September southwest monsoon season over India.
    • It brings more than 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall.
    • It marks a significant transition in the large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • The IMD announces it only after certain newly defined and measurable parameters, adopted in 2016, are met.
    • The onset is a significant day in India’s economic calendar.

    How does IMD predict the monsoon?

    • Broadly, the IMD checks for the consistency of rainfall over a defined geography, its intensity, and wind speed:
    1. Rainfall: The IMD declares the onset of the monsoon if at least 60% of 14 designated meteorological stations in Kerala and Lakshadweep record at least 2.5 mm of rain for two consecutive days at any time after May 10.
    2. Wind field: The depth of westerlies should be upto 600 hectopascal (1 hPa is equal to 1 millibar of pressure) in the area bound by the equator to 10ºN latitude, and from longitude 55ºE to 80ºE. The zonal wind speed over the area bound by 5-10ºN latitude and 70-80ºE longitude should be of the order of 15-20 knots (28-37 kph) at 925 hPa.
    3. Heat: The INSAT-derived Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) value (a measure of the energy emitted to space by the Earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere) should be below 200 watt per sq m (wm2) in the box confined by 5-10ºN latitude and 70-75ºE latitude.
    • The onset is not officially declared until the prescribed conditions (above) are met.

    Factors considered by IMD

    • The IMD uses a specialised model that forecasts the arrival dates within a four-day window.
    • It uses six predictors:
    1. Minimum temperatures over northwest India
    2. Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula
    3. Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea
    4. Lower tropospheric zonal wind over the southeast Indian Ocean
    5. Upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and
    6. OLR over the southwest Pacific region

    Where is the early arrival noticed?

    • The monsoon’s arrival over India is marked by rain over south Andaman Sea, which then advances north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal.
    • In general, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands start receiving monsoon rainfall between May 15 and May 20 every year.
    • And it usually starts raining along the Kerala coast in the last week of May.

    Does an early onset foretell a good monsoon?

    • No, it does not — just as a delay does not foretell a poor monsoon.
    • The onset is just an event that happens during the progress of the monsoon over the Indian subcontinent.
    • A delay of a few days, or perhaps the monsoon arriving a few days early, has no bearing on the quality or amount of rainfall, or its regional distribution across the country.

    Back2Basics: Long Period Average (LPA)

    • The IMD predicts a “normal”, “below normal”, or “above normal” monsoon in relation to a benchmark “long period average” (LPA).
    • The LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc.
    • LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded from June to September for the entire country, the amount of rain that falls every year varies from region to region and from month to month.
    • The IMD’s prediction of a normal monsoon is based on the LPA of the 1971-2020 period, during which India received 87 cm of rain for the entire country on average.
    • It has in the past calculated the LPA at 88 cm for the 1961-2010 period, and at 89 cm for the period 1951-2000.

    Why LPA is needed?

    • The IMD records rainfall data at more than 2,400 locations and 3,500 rain-gauge stations.
    • Because annual rainfall can vary greatly not just from region to region and from month to month, but also from year to year within a particular region or month.
    • An LPA is needed to smooth out trends so that a reasonably accurate prediction can be made.
    • A 50-year LPA covers for large variations in either direction caused by freak years of unusually high or low rainfall, as well as for the periodic drought years.
    • It also takes into account the increasingly common extreme weather events caused by climate change.

    Range of normal rainfall

    The IMD maintains five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale. These are:

    1. Normal or near normal, when the percentage departure of actual rainfall is +/-10% of LPA, that is, between 96-104% of LPA;
    2. Below normal, when departure of actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA, that is 90-96% of LPA;
    3. Above normal, when actual rainfall is 104-110% of LPA;
    4. Deficient, when departure of actual rainfall is less than 90% of LPA; and
    5. Excess, when the departure of actual rainfall is more than 110% of LPA.

    Also read

    Various terms related to Indian Monsoon

     

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