PYQ Relevance:
Q) Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (UPSC CSE 2020)
Q) ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC CSE 2022) |
Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on Crossborder insurgency (2019), and Role of India in Southeast Asia (2017).
The ongoing violence in Myanmar, human rights abuses, and political repression have left millions in dire conditions, with over 6,000 civilians killed and 3.5 million displaced. According to the World Bank, by 2025, around 19.9 million people—one-third of the population—are expected to require humanitarian aid, including 6.3 million children in Myanmar.
As Myanmar marks four years since the military coup, today’s editorial highlights the urgent need for global attention and action. The international community’s response has been inadequate, failing to effectively challenge the junta’s grip on power. This content can be used to present Neighbourhood Policy or South Asian Democratic Crises in your Mains Answers.
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Let’s learn!
Why in the News?
There are several significant developments surrounding the ongoing crisis in Myanmar as it marks the fourth anniversary of the military coup.
![[1st February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare](https://d18x2uyjeekruj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/myn.jpg)
What has been the impact of the military coup on Myanmar’s political landscape?
The military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, has drastically altered the political landscape, leading to instability and conflict.
- Return to Military Rule: The coup reversed a decade-long democratic transition by overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), resulting in widespread protests and civil unrest against the junta.
- Rise in Civil Unrest and Resistance: The coup sparked massive protests and a civil disobedience movement, leading to the formation of a shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), by ousted lawmakers.
- This has resulted in armed conflict with various ethnic groups and newly formed resistance forces, creating a state of civil war.
- Human Rights Violations and Humanitarian Crisis: The military’s brutal crackdowns have led to widespread human rights abuses, including killings and arbitrary detentions. Millions have been displaced, exacerbating existing ethnic conflicts, particularly affecting the Rohingya population. The international response has largely failed to hold the military accountable.
What are the prospects for Myanmar’s economy in 2025 considering the current socio political turmoil?
- The World Bank forecasts a 1% contraction in Myanmar’s GDP for the fiscal year ending in March 2025, marking a significant downgrade from earlier growth expectations.
- By 2025, around 19.9 million people—one-third of the population—are expected to require humanitarian aid, including 6.3 million children.
- Since the military coup in February 2021, armed conflicts and natural disasters have disrupted production across sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. Recent floods have further damaged infrastructure.
- About 25% of the population faces acute food insecurity, driven by high inflation rates projected at 26% annually. Many households struggle to afford basic necessities due to rising food prices.
- The long-term economic outlook remains grim, with subdued growth expected even if conflict levels stabilize. Further violence or natural disasters could worsen economic conditions.
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How has the role of ASEAN evolved in addressing the Myanmar crisis?
- Five-Point Consensus: In April 2021, ASEAN introduced a Five-Point Consensus calling for an end to violence, dialogue, humanitarian aid, and a special envoy to mediate. However, its effectiveness has been limited due to lack of inclusivity and pressure on the military junta.
- Trioka Mechanism: ASEAN created the Trioka Mechanism to monitor the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. This group includes Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia but faces concerns about its ability to address Myanmar’s complex issues.
- Humanitarian Response: ASEAN has held meetings to improve humanitarian aid delivery but struggles with implementation challenges.
- International Engagement: External influences, like those from the EU and UN, have shaped ASEAN’s approach. Critics argue that ASEAN’s preference for dialogue over sanctions has not produced significant results.
Way Forward:
- The UN and ASEAN have struggled to resolve the Myanmar crisis, prompting experts to call on neighboring countries—China, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Laos—to take action, as the situation threatens their interests.
- However, challenges persist: borders with India and Bangladesh are controlled by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), trust issues exist between India and China, and India-Bangladesh relations are strained.
- This makes it difficult for these nations to reach a consensus on how to encourage peace.
- Thailand, as a significant ASEAN member, could play a crucial role but faces its own limitations.
- Meanwhile, China’s influence has grown since the coup, and experts suggest that Myanmar’s people should not rely on external help; instead, their leaders must prioritize dialogue over violence to avoid further suffering.
