Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

Gold and forex reserves cannot finance stimulus

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Debt monetisation, RBI balance sheet etc

Mains level: Paper 3-Ways to raise funds to finance the stimulus package

The article analyses the issues with suggestions like printing of currency and using forex reserves to finance the stimulus. They also lead to an increase in government debts.

Context

  • Prime Minister announced a stimulus package of 20 trillion to fight the economic fallout of the covid pandemic.
  • Since then, several unorthodox ideas have been floated to raise funds for it without straining government finances.
  • Among the suggestions are the printing of currency, and using foreign exchange reserves or household gold.

Let’s look at entries in the RBI’s balance sheets

  • On the liabilities side of it is the currency in circulation, commercial bank reserves  and government reserves.
  • On the asset side of it is forex reserves, government securities and gold.
  • The balancing item represents the central bank’s equity and accumulated surplus.

Let’s look at 3 options suggested above and issues with them-

1) Printing currency

  • Doing this would increase the liabilities of the RBI under “currency in circulation”.
  • But it first needs to acquire assets to offset this increase in liability.
  • These assets could be government securities, forex reserves or gold.
  • Thus, one way for the government to finance its expenditure would be to issue government bonds and ask RBI to print currency with which to subscribe to such bonds.
  • This is known as deficit monetization.
  •  It is important to note that for the central bank to print money, the government would have to issue bonds to it.
  • It will increase government debt.

2) Monetisation of gold held by household

  • This would first involve the government buying gold from households in exchange for its bonds.
  • Then, the accumulated gold would be bought by RBI from the government with newly printed currency.
  •  In this case, instead of creating new money to acquire government bonds, RBI would be doing the same to acquire gold.
  • This too involves the Centre taking on additional debt.
  •  Moreover, gold monetization schemes in the past have yielded only mild success.

3) Using RBI’s forex reserves

  • Against every dollar of forex reserves shown by RBI on the asset side, an equivalent rupee amount has already been created on the liability side.
  • This is because whenever RBI acquires foreign currency, it pays for it using the Indian rupee.
  • Thus, no additional currency can be printed against such already-acquired reserves.
  • The only way our forex reserves can be used for generating additional resources is by pledging them to a third party.
  • The pledging of RBI’s assets to raise funds is done only under extreme circumstances, for instance, during the 1991 balance of payments crisis.
  • We are certainly not in a situation that warrants a repeat of an exercise where RBI’s assets, be it gold or forex reserves, have to be mortgaged.

So, what is the way out?

  • There are only three ways to finance government expenditure: taxes, debt and asset sales.
  • Taxes and asset sales can pitch in a bit towards the stimulus bill.

Consider the question “Examine the ways in which government can raise the funds to finance the stimulus package and also discuss the issues with each move.”

Conclusion

There is no escaping the fact that we are staring at a higher build-up of government debt in the future. When we stop harbouring the notion that we can pay the stimulus bill without any deterioration in government finances, we will be able to see the bitter truth: There is no such thing as a free lunch.

Read more about the issue here:

India’s rising Forex Reserves

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Urban Transformation – Smart Cities, AMRUT, etc.

False urban rural binary

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: AMRUT

Mains level: Paper 1-Urbanisation and issues

The article brings out the issues in the rural-urban binary, which leads to the disparity in the allocation of resources to the urban areas.

Congestion and health issues in cities

  • The congestion in large cities has turned out to be their worst enemy during this pandemic.
  • Congestion is most evident in slums in large cities and poses a grave health and environmental challenges.
  • Yet, the Centre’s allocation for the rural component of the Swachh Bharat Mission is about seven times more than for urban areas.
  • Class I cities have 1.4 beds per 1,000 people. (with the population more than 1 lakh)
  • However, the urban support under the National Health Mission is just three per cent of the total allocation, while 97 per cent of the funds are set aside for rural areas.

Issues with the present urban development programs

  • The Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (2005-2014) allocated the bulk of funds to large cities: 70 per cent to large cities and 30 per cent to smaller towns.
  • Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) and the Smart Cities Mission, focus on Class I cities.
  • Both these schemes provide funds for the more developed cities that already have relatively better infrastructure.
  • But these schemes overlook the nearly seven crore people who live in smaller towns.
  • These are towns that lag behind in services and infrastructure as compared to the big cities.

Consider the question “The rural-urban binary has led to the policy formulation in which there is a huge disparity in the allocation of resources and attention on the urban area. Comment.”

Conclusion

The pandemic has forced us to reflect on the unequal and unplanned development of urban settlements and the absence of infrastructure to provide for the teeming millions.  The challenges of urban poverty and congestion cry for more attention, more government support.

Original article:

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-india-urban-cities-6520574/

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-Iran

India should not jump to conclusion in dealing with Iran

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Jask Port

Mains level: Paper 2- Iran-China deal and concerns for India

Two events which happened in quick succession raised concern in India. Iran’s decision to continue the railway project on its own and the reports of deal with China, both the events weighs heavily on India’s interests. This article examines the future course of action which India must adopt in such a situation.

Context

  • Iran and China are close to concluding a 25-year strategic partnership.
  • This is being linked to reports that Iran has decided to undertake the construction of the Chabahar-Zahedan railway line on its own.
  • The project has not been handed over to China — at least not yet — so the “India loses, China wins” narrative is premature.

What does the China-Iran deal indicate?

  • China attaches importance to Iran, which is a key source of energy supplies, a part of Belt and Road Initiative, and a potentially lucrative market.
  • However, like India, China has also in parallel cultivated closer relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  • China continues to have a strong relationship with Israel.
  • As China’s economic, military and technological capabilities have increased, its profile in this strategically important region has also expanded.

What should be India foreign policy approach towards Iran

  • While acknowledging changed regional geopolitical landscape, India should pursue continue the policy of maintaining positive relations with Iran, the Arab states and Israel.
  • India will have more room for manoeuvring in the region by continuing to maintain a strong and friendly relationship with Iran.
  • One should also not exclude the possibility of a Democratic US President reviving the Iran nuclear deal.
  •  The revival of the deal will open the door for US and European companies to resume business with Iran.
  • It is the reinstatement of severe economic sanctions that has led Iran to turn to China, but the latter has remained cautious.
  • The pursuit of a closer security partnership with the US does not mean that India should follow the US lead on its other important relationships.

Concerns for India

  • While maintaining the relations, India should not monitor closely the development of relations between China and Iran, which could complicate our security interests on our western flank. 
  • Of particular concern is a reference to China constructing a new port at Jask at the mouth of the Hormuz strait.
  •  If the port were operated by China, India’s maritime security would be at further risk.
  • It would also be of deep concern to the Arab states who will suffer from any closing of the Hormuz Strait while Iran remains less affected.
  • This is an issue on which the Arab states may well react adversely to China.
  • India, too, should press its concerns on Iran while working on a counter-strategy.

Consider the question “Balancing the contrasts has been the basis of India’s relations with Iran. Comment.”

Conclusion

India should continue its engagement with Iran while pressing for its concerns at the same time in particular when it comes to Iran’s relations with China endangering India’s interest.

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Anti Defection Law

Time to revisit the practice of floor test

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Provisions under 10th Schedule

Mains level: Paper 2- Anti-defection law, 10th Schedule

The growing trend of the toppling of the government by luring the MLAs of ruling party. The SC needs to reconsider the floor test usually ordered in such cases. The article analyses this issue here.

Reading Article 191(2) and 10th Schedule

  • Article 191(2) declares that a person shall be disqualified from being a member of the legislative assembly or legislative council of a state if he is so disqualified under the Tenth Schedule.
  • The Tenth Schedule to the Constitution contains “provisions as to disqualification on ground of defection”.
  • Tenth Schedule also fixes the relationship between a member and a political party which selected him as a candidate.
  • It also provides one of the grounds for disqualification: “If he voluntarily gives up his membership of such political party”.
  • The decision as to disqualification is left to the absolute discretion of the Speaker.

Constitutional morality and 10th Schedule

  • Tenth Schedule brings to the fore the need to emphasise “constitutional morality”.
  • Constitutional morality means “strict adherence to the core principles of constitutional democracy”.
  • So, Constitutional transgressions by MLAs coming through a “party platform” to serve the people for five years (Article 172), cannot be accepted.
  • In so doing, these MLAs forget the oath, taken under Article 188 of the Constitution to bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of India as established by law.
  • Legislators do not have absolute freedom to behave in any way they like.

Issues with the floor test

  • When ruling party MLAs are lured with rewards, political or otherwise, then the “floor test” becomes constitutionally immoral and unjust.
  • This will amount to circumventing the Tenth Schedule through engineered defections through the judicial process.
  • It is high time the judiciary revisited the use of a “floor test” to prove a majority in a legislature.

Consider the question “Examine the ways in which a member of the house is deemed to have given up his membership under the 10th Schedule as interpreted in the various judgements. Also, analyse the implications of conducting a floor test in a situation when members of the ruling party are lured with rewards.”

Conclusion

Judiciary must take note of the toppling of the majority government through luring of the MLAs and subsequent floor test by the courts. The floor test in such a situation needs reconsideration.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Exploring options to tackle China

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much.

Mains level: Paper 2- Options in dealing with China

There are several options which India could explore in dealing with China with less cost but significant effectiveness. Diplomacy is one of them. What are the other options? Read the article to know…

Context

  • China’s aggression and Galwan valley incident dismantles the Border Agreements of 1993, 1996, 2005 and 2013.
  • Understanding China’s objectives become critical in this situation.

Analysing China’s objectives

  • Humbling India in the eyes of Asia and the world was all important for China.
  • Despite China’s territorial aggression, it would be a mistake to think that China is preparing for a conflict over territory.
  • China is well aware that it cannot be certain whether it will emerge a victor from an all-out conflict with India.
  •  China cannot afford to jeopardise its future for the present.
  • China has been intent on transforming the Asian region in its own image, and, simultaneously, seeking to become a continental and a maritime power.

What are the options to deal with China

  • India may well find non-military tools not only more cost-effective but also less risky.
  • 1)  Exploiting the current widespread opposition to China, India must try to create international opinion in its support regarding border violations.
  • 2) Cultivation of foreign leaders with a view to draw their specific attention to China’s aggressive policies and designs is the second option.
  • India’s involvement with the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) should prove invaluable in this respect.
  • 3) India must also overhaul its ‘messaging’ capacity.
  • It should make greater use of technology to send across its message and ideas in its vicinity and across the globe, highlighting its peaceful intentions in stark contrast to China’s aggressive policies and tactics.
  • 4)  India must pay particular attention to relations with countries in its neighbourhood, such as Nepal and Bangladesh, and allies such as Iran and Vietnam.
  • Relationship with these countries seems to have frayed at the edges, with India being more intent on strengthening relations with the West.
  • Smaller countries of Asia, which constantly face China’s aggressive interference in their internal affairs, have not received much support from India, and this needs India’s attention.
  • 5) India’s true strength is its unity in diversity. A truly united and resilient India is the best antidote to China’s attempts to humble India.
  • China has never been able to properly understand, the strength India seems to derive from its spiritual, religious and cultural attributes, which are a part of its civilisational heritage.
  • 6) India would do well to take pole position in propagating ‘Himalayan Buddhism’ which China has been seeking to subvert to achieve its ends.

Consider the question “To counter the challenges manifested by China through recent events India needs to explore along with other options the subtler tools of power available to it. Examine the other tools available with India.”

Conclusion

Military no doubt project the country’s power but there are other options with less cost and significant benefits. India should focus on these options as well while dealing with China.

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Coronavirus – Economic Issues

Comparing fiscal responses to Covid on qualitative and quantitative basis

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Paper 3- India fiscal response to Covid-19

For all the talks over the size of Atmanirbhar package, India’s response turns out to be inadequate when compared with the other countries with similar levels of per capita income. This article analyses the same.

Context

  • India’s fiscal response is compared to countries which are similar in GDP per capita, state capacity, and structure of the labour force.
  • Before the Atmanirbhar Bharat package, India lagged significantly behind comparable developing countries.
  • As of early July, the gap seems to have narrowed.

Comparison and challenges

  •  Due to the blurring of the distinction between fiscal and monetary components, ensuring comparable and accurate figures for fiscal responses is a challenge.
  • For example, the total Atmanirbhar package is billed at 10% of GDP by the government.
  • While the headline number for India’s fiscal response in international databases is around 4% of GDP.
  • But some estimated that the new fiscal outlay is around 1.7% of GDP.
  • Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Egypt, all while averaging less stringent measures than those in India, have announced stimulus measures that are as large or more substantial, as a share of GDP.

Demand-side interventions in the package

  • The one significant demand-side intervention in the Atmanirbhar Bharat package was ₹40,000 crore of additional outlay for the MGNREGA.
  • Most other demand-side measures involve the frontloading, consolidation, or rerouting of existing funds.

How developing countries are financing responses

  • Developing countries are resorting to drastic means to finance COVID-19 responses.
  • Actions so far include the amendment of legal budget limits.
  • Some are also exploring enhanced issuance of bonds-including a ‘pandemic bond’ by Indonesia.
  • Central banks in many emerging economies are experimenting with purchases of public and private bonds in the secondary market (quantitative easing).
  • Or some are directly purchasing government bonds on the primary market (monetising the deficit).
  • In India, the debate continues over whether the Indian government should invoke the “escape cause” in the FRBM Act.
  • Escape clause will enable the central bank to directly finance the deficit.

Cash transfer: Lessons for India

  • Demand-side interventions announced by other developing countries could provide lessons for additional measures in India.
  • Of the World Bank’s list of 621 measures across 173 countries, half were cash-based. 
  • While only 2% related to public works, a clear indication of the popularity of cash transfers over public works for income support,
  • Countries have also significantly expanded coverage of their cash transfer programmes from pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • Bangladesh and Indonesia have increased the number of beneficiaries by 163% and 111%, respectively.
  • Indonesia’s cash schemes now cover more than 158 million people or 60% of the population.
  • Additionally, the Indonesia central government has directed village authorities to focus their budgets on a cash-for-work programme.

Suggestions for India

  • India could take these actions about cash transfers into account in decisions about expanding existing transfer programmes or even creating new ones.
  • India has been a leader in employment guarantee policies with its flagship MGNREGA programme.
  • This is the right time to expand entitlements MGNREGA.
  • There is a need to introduce an urban version of the MGNREGA.
  • In India, one reason for the subdued fiscal response and the resort to monetary measures is a concern with the debt-to-GDP ratio.
  • However, aggregate demand and confidence in the economy have slumped and may not recover for many months.
  • Additional fiscal outlay -would save lives and jobs today and might prevent a protracted slowdown.

Consider the question “How India fares in comparison with other countries over its fiscal response to Covid? Also examine the utility of income support schemes related to public works against the cash transfer schemes adopted by the other countries.”

Conclusion

Not spending more now, therefore, might only worsen the debt-to-GDP ratio if growth remains depressed. The fiscal outlay in the form of cash and in-kind transfers and expanded public works schemes is the need of the hour.

Original op-ed:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-covid-19-fiscal-response-and-indias-standing/article32154153.ece

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Agricultural Sector and Marketing Reforms – eNAM, Model APMC Act, Eco Survey Reco, etc.

APMC Act is not the main problem

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: APMC Act

Mains level: Paper 3- Issues with the APMC Act

The APMC Act, which is often blamed for the woes of the farmers is not the main problem. This article argues that the root of the problems of Indian agriculture lies somewhere else.

Agriculture post-1991

  • The priority post-1991 has been given to industry as well as services.
  • Middle-class consumers have been favoured by at the expense of farmers.
  • This neglect of agriculture resulted in an equally unprecedented gap between the standard of living in the rural and urban parts of the country.
  • As a result, the urban/rural ratio, in terms of monthly per capita expenditures, has jumped from 1.84 to 2.42 between 2012 and 2018.
  • This means that an average urban-dweller today can consume almost 2.5 times more than an average person in a village.

Reforms by the government

  • Government has decided to liberalise India’s agriculture by amending the APMC Act and the Essential Commodities Act.
  • Contract farming will also be introduced in such a way that the buyer can assure a price to the farmer at the time of sowing.

 APMC Act in the context of Shanta Kumar Committee report

  • The argument against the APMC Act is that it does not allow the free market to function due to government intervention.
  •  It denies farmers the opportunity to determine the prices of crops in the marketplace.
  • In theory, this is a valid argument.
  • But, Shanta Kumar Committee observed in 2015 that only 6 per cent of farmers get the Minimum Support Price (MSP).
  • This is because of barriers to access for farmers as only 22 crops are procured under MSP.
  • Infrastructure is also inadequate as there are only an estimated 7,000 APMC mandis across India.
  • Procurement depends on the stocks required by the state.

Why the APMC Act is not the problem

1) Farm Pricing is the problem

  • The living costs of farmers was considered while determining agricultural pricing by the Agricultural Prices Commission (APC).
  • CACP that replaced the APC in 1985 added a 10 per cent mark-up over the MSP to account for entrepreneurial costs.
  • Such practices have been gradually eroded post-1991.
  • The problem, therefore, is not state intervention but the way the government deals with agriculture.

2) APMC Act helped India build up food stocks

  • India managed to weather the 2008 global food crisis only because it had enough food stocks as Indian agriculture was not linked to the international futures market.
  • This was possible due to the procurement done through the APMC Act.

3) APMC Act reformed already by States

  • Since agriculture is a state subject, the Act has been modified in 17 states.
  •  On the contrary, the condition of peasants has often been affected when the APMC Act has been diluted.
  • Bihar is a case in point.
  • The APMC Act was revoked in 2006 with the same rationale that further deregulation will attract private investment in infrastructure.
  • Not only has that not materialised, but the existing APMC market infrastructure was also dismantled.

Reforms that Indian Agriculture needs

1) Subsidy Reforms

  • Indian Agriculture is still too heavily subsidised in favour of the big players.
  • In the Union Budget 2019-20, the allocation for the Ministry of Agriculture was Rs 1,30,485 crore and the fertiliser subsidy alone was estimated at Rs 79,996 crore.
  • But these subsidies are concentrated on a few crops.
  • Agriculture economist Bruno Dorin has shown, only three crops receive more than 60 per cent of the so-called “non-product-specific” support to agriculture — rice, wheat and sugarcane.
  • This has led to environmental degradation like the depletion of groundwater levels and monocultures which are a threat to biodiversity.
  • It has also led to the industrialisation of agriculture, that results in the strengthening of a handful of multinational companies, which supply chemical inputs.
  • Liberalisation would only strengthen the role of large companies — including those in the agri-food sector.

2) Agriculture needs to be ecologically viable

  • Structurally, farming needs to be made economically and ecologically viable in India.
  • State intervention for better pricing, investments in water harvesting and an agroecological transition could ensure a more resilient system to weather shocks like the current one.
  • The government could draw inspiration from the Andhra Pradesh Community Managed Farming model.
  • It promotes agroecological principles with the use of locally-produced, ecologically-sustainable inputs focusing on soil health..
  • Since the agro-ecological system of farming is more biodiverse in nature, it will make the system more resilient overall.
  • It will provide a safety net for farmers in case of crop damage due to various factors such as climate change or droughts.

Consider the question “Though the APMC Act has been blamed for the farmers’ issues, it has historically been part of the solution. Critically analyse.”

Conclusion

By investing again in agriculture and following, at last, the recommendations of the M S Swaminathan Committee, the Government of India would also help bridge the drastic urban-rural divide.

To read more about the issue:

Marketing of Agricultural Produce in India: Definition; Role; APMC Act, Model APMC Act, 2003

Original article:

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/rural-india-coronavirus-farm-trade-ordinance-apmc-act-6515414/

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-Middle East

Costs of neglecting new Arabian business

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Arab Countries

Mains level: Paper 2- India-Arabian countries, balancing relations with Iran

The article contrasts the over-emphasis put on the ties with Iran with the neglect of ties with Arab countries in India’s foreign policy. It explores the inherent difficulties in dealing with Iran. And opportunities for India in Arab countries.

Context

  • Iran is accorded high priority in India’s foreign policy.
  • This stands in stark contrast to the under-appreciation of relationship with Arab countries.

Reasons for a special relationship with Iran

  • Historical connections.
  • Civilisational bonds.
  • Energy supplies.
  • Regional security.
  • Geographic and demographic size, the geopolitical location next door.
  • Natural resources and the extraordinary talents of its people.

Importance of Arab countries for India

  • Millions of Indian immigrants in the Arab nations.
  • Massive hard currency remittances from them, and the density of commercial engagement with the Arab Gulf is important for India.
  • The UAE and Saudi Arabia have, in recent years, extended invaluable support in countering terrorism and blocked attempts to condemn India in the Muslim world.

Let’s analyse the issue of railway contract in Iran

  • Large countries with major foreign investments and projects win some and lose some.
  • Then there is no escaping the political risk associated with foreign projects.
  • And politics, both domestic and international, is all-consuming in Iran.
  • The sanctions regime imposed by the US has crippled the Iranian economy.
  • India is careful not to attract the US sanctions.
  • India did gain an exemption from the US sanctions regime for its participation in the Chabahar port project in Iran.
  • But they don’t apply to some of the partners suggested by Iran in the railway project.
  • So, Iran would like India to break the US sanctions regime.
  • A prudent India is resisting that temptation.
  • It would rather lose the railway contract than get into the raging crossfire between the US and Iran.

Issue of balancing the relations with Iran and U.S.

  • India’s Iran policy cannot be seen as a test of India’s “strategic autonomy”.
  • Some expect Delhi to conduct its relationship with Iran without a reference to either a cost-benefit calculus or Iran’s troubled relationship with others with whom India has important partnerships.
  • No government in Delhi can buy into that proposition.
  • Criticism of the government policy is similar to what happened in 2005 over India’s stance on Iran’s covert nuclear programme.
  • Delhi’s vote against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency drew criticism.
  • But governments stand proved right when Iran concluded a nuclear deal of its own with the US and major powers, a decade later.
  • Iran surely can take care of its own interests, and there is little reason why Delhi must back Tehran in every one of its fights with Washington.

India should focus on Arab countries

  • The Arab world has had its doors open for political, economic and technological cooperation with India.
  • Three moderate Arab nations — Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — are confronting radical forces in the region and are valuable partners for India in countering forces of destabilisation.
  •  There is real Chinese economic action in the Arab world as the region embraces China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
  • India is no minor economic force in the Arab world, having had a much longer engagement with the region than China.
  • Delhi must up its own commercial game in the Arab world, and one of the new possibilities for India lies in the domain of new technologies.
  • There is emerging sentiment among the Gulf Arabs to reduce the over-dependence on oil, promote alternative energy sources, invest in higher education, and develop technology hubs.

Consider the question “India’s relations with Iran has always been driven by the geopolitical contexts. This poses an inherent challenge for both countries. In light of this examine the importance of Iran for India and challenges India’s foreign policy faces in dealing with Iran.”

Conclusion

India must focus on elevating India’s economic partnership with the Arab world to the next level. For India, the costs of neglecting the new possibilities for wide-ranging Arabian business are far higher than a lost railway contract in Iran.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Changing dynamics in China-Pakistan collusion against India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Paper 2- China-Pakistan collusion in Jammu and Kashmir

India has always been aware of the China-Pak collusion and their mutual support to each others’ actions. But the underlying basis has been changing now. It is no longer Pakistan seeking Chinese support in J&K as much as it is the other way around.

Preparedness for a two-front war

  • The debate regarding India’s capability to fight a war in which there is full collusion between China and Pakistan has generally remained inconclusive.
  • Most detractors of the belief regarding China’s military-operational support to Pakistan, have leaned on the argument that China will adopt a policy to suit its interests.
  • Both in 1965 and 1971, China made some promises to Pakistan but chose to stay away.
  • Of course, that was during the Cold War — a completely different international strategic environment.

China-Pakistan collection action in Kashmir

  • Pakistan increased its proxy campaign in J&K almost in sync with two China-related trends.
  • First, enhanced PLA assertiveness in Eastern Ladakh.
  • Second, the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  • A progressively altering Chinese attitude towards the Kashmir issue started to take shape as early as 2008-09, with issuing stapled visas to Indians residing in J&K and denial of a visa to the Northern Army Commander were signs of it.
  • This support was also witnessed on issues like the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), Pakistan’s involvement in global terrorism and the abrogation of Article 370.

Pincer approach in Ladakh

  • It is no longer Pakistan seeking Chinese support for its adventurism as much as it is the other way around.
  • The mutuality of interests has increased and military coordination has become a larger part of the overall strategy.
  • China may force further escalation this season depending upon how the world responds to its expansionism.
  • China could also adopt a posture which prepares it, along with Pakistan, towards a future “pincer approach” in Ladakh.
  • Along with Ladakh — Arunachal, Sikkim and the Central Sector are very part of the expanded collusive strategy.
  • But it is Ladakh where the effect is intended most and it is there that the pincer approach may prove more challenging for India.

Suggestions for India

  • Assuming that confrontation with the Sino-Pak combine is inevitable now or later, one of the ways for India to offset this is to project sufficient capability.
  • The diplomatic and military domains have to play this out effectively.
  • India cannot be seen to be alone or militarily weak.
  • It has tremendous support internationally which must translate into a higher level of strategic support.
  • Militarily, Pakistan should never be able to perceive that it will be allowed to fight as per choice and conceived strategy.
  • China’s success or failure in such adventurism will set the course of its future strategy against its multiple adversaries.
  • That is the psyche which India must exploit to prevent escalation and win this and impending standoffs without fighting.
  • This needs a rapid and all-out national effort with the highest priority accorded to it, including budgeting.

Conclusion

India cannot afford to focus only on the northern borders. A firm and full strategy to deal with Pakistan in all contingencies has now become imperative.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Concerns over Australia in the Malabar Exercise

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Quad

Mains level: Paper 2- Australia's joining in Malabar naval exercise and issues with it

While the idea of inviting Australia to join Malabar is being explored, we must not forget the concerns with it. This article examines such concerns.

Context

  • India’s Ministry of Defence discussed the issue of adding Australia to the trilateral Malabar naval exercise.
  • If materialised, it will be the first time since 2007 that all members of Quad-India, U.S., Japan and Australia will participate in a joint military drill.

Possible consequences of the move

  • The Chinese leadership sees the maritime Quadrilateral as an Asian-NATO that seeks only to contain China’s rise.
  •  India’s intention to involve Australia in the Malabar drill could only be construed as a move directed against Beijing.

India’s perspective

  • Following the stand-off in Ladakh, many Indian analysts believe the time is right for India to shed its traditional defensiveness in the maritime domain.
  • The realists advocate an alliance with the U.S., Japan and Australia to counter Chinese moves in the Indian Ocean.

Concerns

1) Contrary message to China

  • While India and China are negotiating a truce, Australia’s participation in the Malabar exercise sends contrary signals to Beijing.
  • If China responded aggressively in the Eastern Indian Ocean, it could needlessly open up a new front in the India-China conflict.

2) Only modest gains for India

  • U.S. and its Pacific partners want to form a maritime coalition to implement a ‘rules-based order’ in the Indo-Pacific littorals.
  • India’s priority is to acquire strategic capabilities to counter a Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean.
  •  Indian Navy is yet to develop the undersea capability to deter Chinese submarines in the eastern Indian Ocean.
  • With U.S. defence companies hesitant to share proprietary technology the gains for India, in exchange for signing up the ‘military-quad’, are modest.
  • Without strategic technology transfers, Indian Navy’s deterrence potential in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) will not improve much.

3) Operational issue: India will be drawn into power dynamics of the Asia-Pacific

  • With the strategic contest between the U.S. and China, there is every possibility that the military-Quad will be used to draw India into the security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific.
  • The U.S. would expect its Indo-Pacific partners, including India, to assist the U.S. Navy in its South China Sea endeavour.
  •  The U.S. and Japanese navies have little spare capacity for sustained surveillance and deterrence operations in the IOR.
  • Australia is an exception and is ready and able to partner India in securing the Eastern Indian Ocean.

4) Timing

  • A balancing coalition must come together at a time when the nature and magnitude of the threat are wholly manifest.
  • But, despite a growing presence in the Indian Ocean, the Chines Navy is yet to physically threaten Indian interests at sea.
  • So, the onus of the first move to precipitate a crisis in the Eastern Indian Ocean lies with the Indian Navy.

Conclusion

Upgrading the trilateral Malabar to a quadrilateral, without acquiring the requisite combat and deterrence capability, could yield gains for India in the short term, but would prove ineffective in the long run.

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Agricultural Sector and Marketing Reforms – eNAM, Model APMC Act, Eco Survey Reco, etc.

Exporting agri-inputs

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Urea import and export by India

Mains level: Paper 3- Self reliance in agri-inputs

Some changes could make India exporter of agri-inputs. The article examines bottlenecks that holds India back and suggests the policy changes in key agri-inputs-seeds, fertilisers and machinery.

Context

In the following 3 key agri-inputs India has the untapped potential. What is needed is policy changes.

1) Seeds

  • India can emerge as an important seed producer and a large exporter of seeds to many developing countries in South and South-east Asia as well as Africa.
  • The country can produce very competitively-priced seeds for hybrid rice, hybrid corn, hybrid Bt HT cotton, and several vegetables including tomato, potato and okra.
  • For this to happen, we have to set our regulatory system right.
  • Let’s use the case of cotton.
  • India’s decision in March 2002 to allow Bt cotton made India the largest producer of cotton in the world and the second-largest exporter of cotton by 2013-14.
  • But due to policy changes since 2014-15 and issues such as trait fees companies stopped the introduction of new generation of seeds
  • Now there is an “illegal” spread of Bt HT cotton in Maharashtra.
  • This is partly because our regulatory system is complex.
  • And more so because the present government has ideological blinkers against modern science.
  • This is the biggest bottleneck holding India back from becoming the seed capital of the developing world.

2) Fertilisers

  • India has been a net importer of fertiliser nutrients (NPK) for almost two decades.
  • In 2019-20, India imported fertilisers worth $6.7 billion, topping the list is urea $2.9 billion.
  • We are totally dependent on imports and likely to remain so in case of MOP and in the case of DAP.
  •  In the case of urea, India wants to be atmanirbhar by opening up five new urea plants in the public sector with a total capacity of 6.35 MMT.
  • Almost 70 per cent of the gas being used in urea plants is imported at a price much higher than the price of domestic gas.
  • The cost is going to be more than $400/tonne when the international price generally hovers between $250-300/tonne.
  • The government should allow existing private sector urea plants to expand and produce at a much lower cost.
  • The best way to achieve self-reliance in fertilisers is to change the system of fertiliser subsidies.

Suggestion on changes in fertiliser subsidies

  • 1) Deposit equivalent cash directly into farmers’ accounts, calculated on a per hectare basis.
  • 2) Free up fertiliser prices.
  • 3) Allow the private sector plants to compete and expand urea production in a cost-competitive manner.

3) Farm machinery

  • Before the Green Revolution, India produced only 880 tractor units.
  • It increased to about 9,00,000 units in 2018-19.
  • So, India is the largest tractor manufacturer in the world.
  • India also exported almost 92,000 tractors, largely to African and ASEAN countries.
  • Though Green Revolution gave tractor production a push, the real break-through came after de-licensing in 1991.
  • The new class of entrepreneurs and start-ups are coming up with special apps for “Uberisation of tractor services”.
  • In an economy of small landholders, owning a tractor is a high-cost proposition as it is not fully utilised.
  • This needs to be made more efficient by creating a market for tractor services.

Consider the question “Despite having the potential to transform itself into the exporter of agri-inputs, India ends up being the importer of some of them. In light of this examine India’s potential to become the exporter of agri-input products and suggest the measures to achieve this.”

Conclusion

The private sector is our strength. The only thing the government has to do is to unshackle them from the chains of controls and webs of unnecessary regulations. They will make an Atmanirbhar Bharat.

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Electoral Reforms In India

Voting right to migrant workers

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: RP Act

Mains level: Paper 2- Securing voting right to migrant workers through ballot paper

A large number of migrant workers cannot vote in their constituency. This assumes significance when we consider that the Supreme Court has interpreted the right to vote as an extension of the fundamental right of the freedom of expression. So,  the ECI should find ways to enable them exercise their right.

Universal adult franchise: India’s achievement

  • India moved from a restrictive 15 per cent of Indians having limited voting rights to universal adult franchise.
  • Transformative nature of the Indian national movement and the ideals of equality and non-discrimination enshrined in it played a crucial role in it.
  • It was B R Ambedkar’s clarity of vision that resulted in Article 326 of the Constitution.
  • Ambedkar had influenced public opinion on the matter for decades, giving evidence before the Southborough committee.

Migrant workers: some facts

  • According to the 2011 Census, the number of internal migrants stands at 45 crore.
  • Among these, 26 per cent of the migration, that is, 11.7 crore occurs inter-district within the same state.
  • 12 per cent of the migration, that is, 5.4 crore occurs inter-state.
  • Both official and independent experts admit that this number is underestimated.
  • Circular migration accounts for those migrants who have not permanently relocated to host cities, and instead circulate between host and home cities.
  • Short-term and circular migration could itself amount to 6-6.5 crore.
  • Half of these are inter-state migrants.
  • Migrant labourers mostly hail from most poverty-driven rural areas.
  • They are from among the most marginalised sections SC/STs and OBCs, and other minorities.
  • As of 2011, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar were the largest sources of inter-state migrants, with 83 lakh and 63 lakh migrants respectively.

Low turnout in the source states

  •  Economic constraints disable a majority of migrant workers from voting as they cannot commute to their home states on the polling day.
  • One survey shows that only 48 per cent of those surveyed voted in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, when the national average was 59.7 per cent.
  • In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, major sender states such as Bihar and UP had among the lowest voter turnout rates.

Inability to satisfy “Ordinary Resident” criteria

  • Given the nature of migration being circular and seasonal, migrants are not permanent/long-term residents in host cities.
  • So, they do not satisfy the requirements of being an “ordinary resident” under Section 20 of the Representation of People Act (RP Act), in the host state, to obtain voter cards.
  • They are, therefore, unable to transfer their constituency.

Solution: Postal ballot

  • The Election Commission of India has under Section 60(c) of the RP Act the power to notify a certain class of persons to vote via postal ballot.
  • The ECI’s much-proclaimed mission to ensure “no voters are left behind” has resulted in attempts to ensure a secure system of postal ballots.
  • In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, more than 28 lakh votes were received via postal ballots.
  • The Indian migrant worker should be given the right to vote through a similar system.

Consider the question “There is scope for increasing the voter turnout in India and enabling the migrant workers to vote could be one of them. Examine the reasons for low voting turnout in India and suggest the measures to improve it.”

Conclusion

Securing the migrant workers right to vote will make democracy inclusive, responsible and sensitive to the concerns of those who find it difficult to make their voice heard.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-Iran

Iran ties need quiet diplomacy

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: JCPOA

Mains level: Paper 2- India-Iran ties and India's concerns over Iran-China partnership

India ties with Iran are significant for more than one reasons. Two countries share cultural bonds, Iran holds a special place when it comes to India’s energy security. Yet, India often finds itself in a difficult position as it tries to walk the tightrope between the U.S. sanction and maintaining the relations with Iran. 

Context

  • Concerns were raised in India over its exclusion by Iran from the 628 km long rail link between Chabahar and Zahidan.
  • Iran has since clarified that it is not the case and India could join the project at a later stage.
  • It happened just as China and Iran were close to signing a deal on an economic and security partnership.

Importance of Chabahar and the rail link

  • Chabahar could provide connectivity for Afghanistan through Iran in order to lessen its dependence on Karachi port.
  • This plan has enjoyed support in Delhi, Kabul and Tehran since 2003.
  •  Road and rail links from Chabahar to Zahidan and then 200 km further on to Zaranj in Afghanistan, need to be built.

Progress on the project

  • Iran was under sanctions during 2005-13, so there was little progress.
  •  Meanwhile, India concentrated on the 220 km road to connect Zaranj to Delaram on the Herat highway, and completed it in 2008.
  • After the sanctions on Iran eased in 2015,  A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed with Iran in 2016.
  • This MoU aimed to equip and operate two terminals at the Shahid Beheshti port as part of Phase I of the project.
  • The Trilateral Agreement on Establishment of International Transport and Transit Corridor between Afghanistan, Iran and India was signed.
  • In addition to $85 million of capital investment, India also committed to providing a line of credit of $150 million for port container tracks.
  • Phase I was declared operational in 2018 and India’s wheat shipments to Afghanistan have been using this route.
  • A special economic zone (SEZ) at Chabahar was planned but re-imposition of U.S. sanctions has slowed investments into the SEZ.
  • India was given a waiver from U.S. sanctions to continue cooperation on Chabahar.
  •  Despite the waiver, the project has suffered delays.

Growing Iran-China relations

  • In 2016, just as sanctions were eased, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Tehran and proposed a long-term comprehensive, strategic partnership.
  • Iran kept the negotiations going for years because of reluctance to grow too close to China.
  • Meanwhile, tensions in the region have been growing since last year with missile strikes in Saudi Arabia and a U.S. drone strike killing Gen. Qassim Soleimani.
  • As a veto-wielding member, China can help Iran at the UNSC.
  • Even so, the Iran- China comprehensive, strategic partnership road map has run into opposition in the Majlis[Iranian Parliament].

India’s concerns over Iran-China deal

  • What is alarming for New Delhi is that Beijing is also concluding a security and military partnership with Tehran.
  • Initial reports in Iran have suggested China will deploy 5,000 security personnel to protect its projects in Iran.
  • Some reports suggest Kish Island in the Persian Gulf, located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, maybe “sold” to China.
  • With a growing Chinese presence, India is also concerned about its strategic stakes around the Chabahar port project.

Way forward for India

  • Though China has a greater capacity to resist U.S. sanctions, Iran realises the advantage of working with India as it enjoys a sanctions waiver from the U.S. for Chabahar.
  • Iran and India also share an antipathy to a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.
  • This is why Iran would like to keep the door open.
  • Nevertheless, India needs to improve its implementation record of infrastructure projects in its neighbourhood.
  • There are numerous tales of Indian cooperation projects in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, etc suffering delays and cost overruns that only make it easier for China to expand its footprint in India’s neighbourhood.

Consider the question “India-Iran ties circumscribed by each other’s compulsion and geopolitical constraints. Comment.”

Conclusion

India should continue to remain politically engaged with Iran so that there is a better appreciation of each other’s sensitivities and compulsions.


With inputs from:

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-in-china-iran-indias-concerns-6511177/

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Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

A demand problem contributing to lower imports

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Trade surplus

Mains level: Paper 3- India's import and exports

India registered a trade surplus after almost two decades. But this is not the result of a sudden rise in India’s export. It is due to subdued import indicating the low demand.

What latest data indicate

  • Data released by the commerce ministry indicate a contraction in exports observed over the past few months easing slowly.
  • But the continuing contraction in import which indicates low demand is worrying.
  • This is trend is leading to the growing gap between import and export.

India registered a trade surplus: what it indicates

  • This growing gap led to India registering a trade surplus of nearly $800 million in June.
  • This is the first time in almost two decades that the country has registered a trade surplus.
  • But does this mean that India’s exports have grown drastically?
  • No. It is a sign of collapse in domestic demand.

Merchandise exports growing trends

  • India’s merchandise exports continue to witness an upward swing.
  • The pace of contraction fell to 12.4 per cent in June, from 36.2 per cent in May and 60 per cent in April.
  • Exports of items such as iron ore, drugs and pharmaceuticals, chemicals and various agricultural commodities saw an expansion in June.

What growing exports and falling import indicate

  • An upswing in exports could be indicative of a faster recovery of India’s export partners.
  • Restrictions on economic activities in some of these countries had eased earlier.
  • Other reason could be the rush by Indian exporters to ship out orders to meet their seasonal deadlines.
  • Imports continue to remain deep in negative territory.
  • The contraction in non-oil exports has actually worsened with decline observed in both consumer and investment/industrial goods imports.
  • Some movement is visible in imports of electronic goods.
  •  But the import of machinery and transport equipment has not moved significantly.
  • Of the 30 main import items, only four registered mildly positive growth in June — this indicates the pace of the domestic slowdown.

Conclusion

Economic activities across the world will take time to return to normalcy, India’s exports will take time to reach pre-COVID levels. It seems that the chasm between exports and imports could persist, given the plateauing of the post-lockdown spurt in demand/production.

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Higher Education – RUSA, NIRF, HEFA, etc.

Centralisation in decision making in education

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Paper 2- Centralisation in Education

The article tracks the evolution of the India education system after Independence. While the decentralisation and active encouragement underscores the initial years, recent trends shows a growing emphasis on centralisation.

How Government support contributed to rise of educational institutions

  • In the initial decades after Independence, the government was conscious of various social, economic and financial challenges.
  • So, the government strongly supported universities, encouraging them to further develop an academic .
  • The IITs and IIM along with institutions of academic excellence like the IISc, Indian Statistical Institute, and JNU emerged as model institutions.
  • The institutional and academic autonomy offered was central to their emerging as premier institutions.
  • Other universities revised curricula and set about the task of reforming the university as a space for healthy academic engagement.

Rise of decentralisation in collective decision making

  • The above changes were marked by the growing importance of various large representative institutional bodies.
  • For example, institutional bodies like faculty committees, committees of courses, board of studies, university senates, academic councils and executive councils grew in importance.
  • These bodies oversaw the administrative and academic functioning of the university and ensured collective decision-making.
  • Debate over ideological positions, scholarly beliefs shaped the process of nation-building in independent India.

Policy changes and its impact (2005-15)

  • The constitution of the National Knowledge Commission and privatisation of education undermined the deliberative and independent character of these institutions of higher education.
  • Administrative and academic decisions were imposed from above.
  • Discussions within various academic bodies were discouraged.
  • The imposition of the semester system and a four-year undergraduate programme in many public and private universities were hallmarks of this new era of bureaucratic centralisation.
  • The academic achievements of scholars from Indian universities were undermined.
  • Those in positions of authority within the universities were encouraged to undermine academic bodies and limit their role.

New government intervention after 2015

  • Futher changes were introduced starting from 2015.
  • Choice Based Credit System was introduced and there were renewed attempts to privatise higher education linked to an emphasis on rankings.
  • The government started to look into minute details pertaining to academic curricula, the teaching-learning process and the parameters that governed academic research within the university.

Centralisation in Covid-19 pandemic

  • The centralisation trend intensified with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The Central government and the University Grants Commission have imposed themselves on the daily functioning of all higher educational institutions.
  • This represents a new government-oriented bureaucratic centralisation.
  • Decisions about the conclusion of academic term, the modalities for evaluation and the conduct of the teaching-learning process have become exclusive government prerogatives.
  • The various academic bodies that had original jurisdiction over these matters have been made redundant.
  • How and whether examinations are to be conducted has become an issue of contention between State and Central governments.

Consider the question “Centralisation of the decision making instead of at institutional level in educational institutions and universities lies at many woes of the higher education in India. Comment.”

Conclusion

The time has come for institutions of higher education in India to recover their lost voice and restore the fertile academic space where ideas are discussed and debated rather than suppressed and dismissed.

Original article:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-lost-voice-of-the-indian-university/article32105945.ece

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Contention over South China Sea

U.S.-Asia coordination to preserve global order

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: ASEAN

Mains level: Paper 2- Growing aggression of China in the Indo-Pacific and increasing coordination among Indo-Pacific nations to counter it.

The focus of this article is on the U.S. policy in the Indo-Pacific and its relations with its allies there in countering China.

Instances of China’s aggression

  • Galwan Valley is not an exception in Beijing’s recent behaviour in Asia.
  • China has also engaged in a tense geopolitical confrontation with its other neighbours.
  • Stand-offs with Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea and threatening Australia with boycotts are a few examples.

Response to China

  • Beijing’s aggressiveness is fueling debates about the underlying costs of reliance on China.
  • China’s aggression is also increasing support for closer coordination between other Indo-Pacific partners.
  • Indian, Japan, Malaysia, and Australia have all taken concrete steps to reduce their economic exposure to Beijing.
  •  India and Australia recently inked a new military logistics agreement in the “virtual summit”.
  • A similar agreement between Delhi and Tokyo may follow.
  • The Quadrilateral Dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States is growing stronger and even expanding.
  • And recently Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued one of their strongest statements to date on the South China Sea.
  • The ASEAN statement insisted that maritime disputes must be resolved in accordance with the UN Law of the Sea treaty.

Asian multilateralism: Born out of crises

  • Recently the “Milk Tea Alliance”, reaction of people, born to forge solidarity between Taiwanese, Hong Kongers, and Southeast Asians online to deal with Chinese cyberbullying.
  • The Chiang Mai Initiative — a financial swap mechanism between China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia — emerged in the aftermath of the late 1990s financial crisis.
  • ASEAN, created in 1967, did not convene its first heads of state meeting until fall of Saigon in 1976 in the Vietnam War.

Role of the U.S.

  • The COVID-19 crisis is remaking the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific.
  • The ongoing crisis has made countries aware of seriousness of Chinese dominance.
  • This situation has given the U.S. opportunity it has long sought: 1) More credible multilateral coordination among allies, 2) Pushback against online disinformation. 3) The desire to better integrate like-minded economies and supply chains.
  • But the crisis is also raising renewed questions about the American leadership.
  • The question now facing the U.S. is whether or not it can harness this new regional momentum.

Alienating allies

  • U.S. continues to make unforced errors that create distance with U.S. allies and partners.
  • For example, its focus on cutting support for the WHO and asserting that COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan lab alienated Canberra.
  • Similarly, the administration’s suspension of various worker visas will almost certainly have serious repercussions in India.

What should be the U.S. approach to Asia?

  • The U.S. needs to make two major shifts.
  • First, U.S. policy needs to start supporting, rather than attempting to commandeer, regional efforts to build a less China-centric future for the Indo-Pacific.
  • While Chinese aggression provides powerful motivation for coordination, U.S. partners are seeking an agenda that is framed in broader terms than simply rallying to counter Beijing.
  • If the U.S. wants to reduce reliance on Beijing and “re-couple” investments and supply chains among allied nations, it is going to have to make compromises.
  • U.S. should work with Indo-Pacific partners on the issues that they prioritise and provided them with space for independent action.
  • Second, Washington should avoid repeating Beijing’s mistakes of bullying.
  • U.S. should offer a clear alternative in word and deed to China’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy.
  • Moves such as demanding that a G-7 communiqué refer to COVID-19 as the “Wuhan virus” and blocking mask shipments to close allies are the kind of counterproductive bullying.

Options for Asian countries

  • Beijing’s recent aggression is not an aberration but part of a growing pattern.
  • As Beijing’s confidence in its growing material and military power solidifies, its neighbours will need to think carefully about the long-term decisions necessary to preserve an open regional order.
  • Facing the unprecedented health and economic crises spawned by COVID-19, the U.S. and Asian partners will need to coordinate more closely.
  • Asian countries should strengthen their own regional networks.
  • This Asian network will challenge the views of those in both Washington and Beijing who would see the region only as a sparring ground.

Conclusion

For American and Asian leaders, the choice is stark: encourage and foster this trend, recognising that stronger regional coordination will require more compromises as well as tougher choices, or resist it and risk being left behind.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India – EU

India should believe in the EU

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: European Union

Mains level: Paper 2- Commonalities and areas of cooperation with the EU

India and the EU have many things in common. And there are many areas in which both can expand the cooperation. This article explores commonalities and the areas which offer the scope for enhancing the cooperation. 

Common interests

  • Both aim to enhance strategic autonomy and their global standing.
  • Diversifying strategic value chains is also a common interest.
  • Both seek to address the issue of climate change on an urgent basis.

Economic ties with the EU

  • The EU is India’s largest trading partner accounting for €80 billion worth of trade in goods in 2019.
  • This is equal to 11.1% of total Indian trade.
  • The EU is also the biggest foreign investor, with €67.7 billion worth of investments made in 2018.
  • Which is equal to 22% of total FDI inflows.

Scope for improving the economic ties

  • The EU’s investments in China amounted to €175.3 billion (2018).
  • So, India could succeed in attracting EU investment that might be moving out of China.
  • To attract this outflowing investment, India must address the mutual trust deficit.
  • Enhanced business cooperation can help both the EU and India diversify their strategic value chains.
  • Increasing people’s mobility and connectivity is another area that can create opportunities for innovation and growth.

Talks on FTA

  • Both sides need to move further on the Free Trade Agreement.
  • A new study from the European Parliament estimates the impact of an EU-India trade agreement between €8 billion and €8.5 billion.
  • The study also mentions additional potential gains from enhanced coordination on the provision of global public goods, such as environmental standards.

Cooperation on climate change

  • Under the new industrial strategy, the Green Deal, the EU has set an ambitious target to be carbon-emission neutral by 2050.
  • If the EU and India succeed in transforming into carbon-neutral economies by 2050, we all would gain from the investment.

Strategic partnership with EU

  • The Indo-Pacific region is becoming contentious, so India should capitalise on its geopolitical leverage there.
  • Cooperation with like-minded, democratic powers can support this effort, especially towards assertive competitors like China.
  • The EU as a whole offers more to India than the strongest bilateral relations with individual EU member state.
  • New Delhi must learn how to maximise benefits from this strategic partnership.
  • The disruption caused by COVID-19 has been the occasion for the EU to prove its worth.
  • “Next-generation EU proposal” submitted by the European Commission has economic as well as geopolitical implications.
  • The proposal shows that the ties that bind the EU extend well beyond treaties and individual members’ self-interest.
  • The EU champions the rules-based international order, so the EU and India must act to promote sustainable reform of multilateral institutions starting from the WTO.

Consider the question “India-EU ties with many common interests assume significance as rule-based order is being challenged by the rise of exceptionalism. Comment.”

Conclusion

A strong partnership would help both the EU and India become global decision-makers and tackle the challenges caused by the disruption of global order collectively.

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Skilling India – Skill India Mission,PMKVY, NSDC, etc.

Skill India For Atmanirbhar Bharat

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

Mains level: Paper 3- Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and need for skilling the youth.

As India embarks on the path of self-reliance through Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, it has to nurture the skilled workforce. This article highlights the need to upgrade the skills or upskill the youth to meet the employment needs of technology-driven 21st century.

Context

  • The effects of the pandemic are expected to have a lasting impact on every sphere of activity.
  • Considering this impact, India announced the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan to propel the country on the path of self-sustenance.

Objectives

  • Atmanirbhar Bharat has twin objectives- short term and long term.
  • 1) Reviving different spheres of the economy in the short term.
  • 2) Insulating India from any future global economic downturn, by making it robust in the long run.
  • The Abhiyan seeks to build capacities across sectors and promote local products.
  • Further, it would focus on scaling up manufacturing, accelerating infrastructure development, attracting investments and promoting a consumption-led growth.

Youth: Strength of India

  • About 65 per cent of India’s population is below 35 years and 50 per cent is below 25 years.
  • With a huge, educated young population, India is uniquely poised to realise its demographic potential.
  • The fact that Indians are heading several MNCs shows that there is no dearth of knowledge and talent in the country.
  • However, we need to upgrade the skills or upskill the youth to meet the employment needs of technology-driven 21st century.

Opportunities and challenges

  • Pandemic and is being seen by many as an opportunity to upgrade their knowledge and acquire new skills.
  • The fourth industrial revolution has triggered a paradigm change in which digital technology drives the job market.
  • Remote working with increasing adoption of digital technology might continue to be dominant mode of working for the near future.
  • It is estimated that nearly 70 per cent of the world’s learners are affected by school closures due to pandemic across education levels.
  • Artificial intelligence, machine learning, data science, cloud computing and Internet of Things will be area of interest for companies.
  • With people opting to online buying, companies will seek to adopt new online marketing strategies.
  • Another important issue that needs to be addressed is ensuring equitable employment through higher participation of women in the workforce.

Way forward for Atmanirbhar Bharat

1) Local to glocal

  • There have been some reassuring developments with an accent on “local to glocal”
  • The production of several lakh PPE kits, a collaboration of automobile industries to produce ventilators, manufacture of more than 70 Made in India products by the DRDO are just a few examples of the capability of Indian scientists, IT professionals and technocrats.

2) Reducing import

  • We must aim to gradually reduce imports in every sector from crude oil to heavy machinery.
  • This reduction should be based on the locally available resources, talent, and skills of the human capital.

3) Globally competitive product

  • While remaining vocal about local, we must aim at making Indian products to be globally competitive. 
  • We should try to stay ahead in the innovation-led knowledge economy.
  • PSUs and the private sector should not only complement but collaborate wherever feasible.
  • The private sector must massively step up investments R&D. PSUs too need to modernise in terms of technology.

Consider the question “Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan has the aim of reviving the Indian economy. Examine its objective and how it seeks to revive the economy”

Conclusion

To remain globally competitive with a well-assured future, we need to focus on “skills, scale and speed”. India has the potential to emerge as the global hub for providing skilled manpower to other nations.

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Police Reforms – SC directives, NPC, other committees reports

Breaking the politicians-criminals-bureaucrats nexus

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Paper 3- Police reforms and criminalisation of politics.

The root cause of impunity with which police perpetrated crimes lies in the in a nexus. The nexus between politicians, criminals and government functionaries needs to be broken down. This article suggests the ways to do that.

The context

  • The recent custodial deaths in Tamil Nadu and encounter of a criminal by the UP police showed the police in a bad light.
  • However, when we dig deeper into the problem we realise that its root lies in the nexus of politicians, criminals and the government functionaries.

Past attempt to break the nexus

  • In 1993, the Vohra Committee had submitted a report on the nexus between the criminals, politicians and government functionaries.
  • DIB suggested that an institution be set up to effectively deal with the menace.
  • There were discussions in parliament, but the matter ended there.
  • There was hardly any follow-up action.

Criminalisation of politics

  • The number of members of parliament with criminal background has been going up with every successive election.
  • It was, according to the Association of Democratic Reforms, 30 per cent in 2009, 34 per cent in 2014 and 43 per cent in 2019.
  • The present UP Assembly has 36 per cent or 143 MLAs with criminal cases against them.
  • This lead to the administration turning a blind eye to the illegal activities of the criminals.
  • The nexus has proliferated and grown in strength down the years.
  • It creates an environment where the criminals who are part of the nexus are able to dodge the due processes of law.

Suggestions

  • 1) We must have a law which debars persons with serious criminal cases from entering the assemblies and the Parliament.
  • 2) The criminal justice system must be revamped as recommended by the Malimath Committee.
  • 3) The Supreme Court’s directions on police reforms must be implemented.
  • 4) An institution comprising representatives of the police/CBI/NIA, IB, IT department, Revenue Intelligence and Enforcement Directorate should be set up to monitor the activities of the mafia and criminal syndicates in the country.
  • 5) A Central act on the lines of MCOCA should be enacted to curb the activities of organised criminal gangs.
  • 6) The concept of federal crime, as recommended by the Second Administrative Reforms Commission, should be accepted.
  • Crimes with all-India ramifications or are trans-national in character, like those of terrorism and organised crimes, should be brought within the ambit of federal crimes.

Consider the question “The nexus of criminals, politicians and government functionaries is at the root of many problems the country faces today. Examine the problems created by the nexus and suggest ways to deal with the problem.”

Conclusion

We must, without further delay, build an environment where police become an instrument of service to the people, where monsters like Dubey do not thrive and become a menace to society.

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Urban Transformation – Smart Cities, AMRUT, etc.

Smart Cities Mission and the public health

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Smart Cities Mission

Mains level: Paper 2- Lack of focus on public health in smart cities mission

“Smart Cities Mission” lacks the focus on public health. This article highlights the consequences of this. The article suggests strengthening the of local governments and provisions for the livelihood through an urban employment guarantee scheme.

“Smart Cities Mission”: Progress so far

  • The ‘Smart Cities Mission’, a flagship programme of the government, completed five years, in June 2020.
  •  The Mission had sought to make 100 selected cities “smart”.
  • Cities are being developed under “Area-Based Development” model.
  • Under this model, a small portion of the city would be upgraded by retrofitting or redevelopment.
  • Many of the projects undertaken under the ‘Smart Cities Mission’ are behind schedule.
  • According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, of the 5,151 smart city projects, only 1,638 projects have been completed.
  • In terms of expenditure, of the total investment of ₹2,05,018 crore, only projects worth ₹26,700 crore have been completed.

Lack of focus on Public health in Smart Cities Mission

  • ‘Smart Cities Mission’ has given little importance to basic services such as public health.
  •  An analysis shows that only 69 of over 5,000 projects undertaken under the Mission were for health infrastructure.
  • These projects are for an estimated cost of ₹2,112 crore, amounting to just around one per cent of the total mission cost.
  • Hence, public health seems to be a major blind spot in India’s smart city dreams.

Public Health: Essential local government function

  • ‘Smart Cities Mission’ had the stated aim of improving the quality of life of urban residents.
  • Further, public health is an essential local government function in India’s constitutional scheme.
  • As per the 74th Amendment ( 12th Schedule), “public health” is one of the 18 functions that are to be devolved to the municipalities.
  • However, public health infrastructure of cities has often been neglected over the years.

Strengthening Local Governments

  • Success of Kerala in containing the pandemic has shown how a decentralised political and administrative system can be effective.
  • It is important to strengthen local government capacities.
  • Investment in urban public health systems is needed.
  • Promoting programmes that improve the livelihoods of urban vulnerable communities should be the priority.
  • Programs such as the National Urban Livelihoods Mission and National Urban Health Mission, need to be strengthened.

Focus on Urban Employment

  • It is time to consider the introduction of a national urban employment guarantee programme.
  • Kerala has been running such a scheme since 2010.
  • States such as Odisha, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand have also recently launched similar initiatives in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.

Consider the question “Covid pandemic has highlighted the lack of focus on public health in our Smart Cities Mission. Suggest the measures to make our cities resilient and source of livelihood. 

Conclusion

As Indian cities face an unprecedented challenge, it is important to get the priorities of urban development right and invest in programmes that improve the health and livelihoods of its residents.

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