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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

Inflation in India is Driven by Food Prices

op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Inflation, WPI and CPI

Mains level: Inflation trends in India

Inflation in India

Central Idea

  • The recent trajectory of inflation in India is attributed to the pricing power of five big corporates or ‘Big 5’ according to former Deputy Governor of Reserve Bank of India, Viral Acharya. However, the argument is flawed as the Indian inflation is different from the rest of the world, and it is driven by food price inflation. While corporate pricing power does exist, it is limited, and the extent to which it drives overall inflation is still debatable.

The factor of food price inflation

  1. Divergence between Indian and Western inflation rates is not new:
  • Sudden surge of Inflation in India: After the global financial crisis of 2008, Indian inflation surged higher than the economies of the US and UK due to food price inflation caused by negative agricultural shocks and high procurement price hikes.
  • Core inflation: Food-price inflation tends to feed into core inflation, so it would be hasty to conclude that Indian inflation is higher than the West today due to corporate pricing power.
  • Food price inflation: Evidence suggests that in India, food price inflation affects core inflation, and food price inflation enters costs of the non-agricultural sector.
  1. Corporate pricing power in India:
  • Corporate pricing power and overall inflation: Corporate pricing power exists in Indian industry, but the extent to which it drives overall inflation in India is debatable. The question is how much corporate power is driving inflation beyond its obvious role in elevating the price level.
  • Prices of food: To measure inflation without considering the price of food is to exclude what matters most to the public, as opposed to central bankers.
  • Inflation control strategy: India’s inflation control strategy needs to address the challenge of ensuring the production of food at affordable prices.
  1. Comparing WP inflation with CP inflation
  • Comparing WP inflation with CP inflation is to acquiesce in a mismatch.
  • The commodity basket corresponding to CP includes items that do not enter the wholesale price index, so we would be comparing apples with oranges.

Inflation in India

The argument is based on a short time period

  • WP inflation has eased considerably in the six months preceding March 2023, but CP inflation has not. However, a mismatch between WP and CP inflations is not new.
  • So, the maintenance of high price increases by firms in the retail sector even after wholesale price inflation has declined in 2022-23 may just be a compensating mechanism, i.e., the rising input cost of the retail sector is being passed on with a lag.

Facts for prelims: WP inflation VS CP inflation

Aspect Wholesale Price (WP) Inflation Consumer Price (CP) Inflation
Definition Measures the change in average price level of goods sold by producers at the wholesale level Measures the change in average price level of goods and services purchased by households
Captures Changes in prices of goods before they reach the retail market Changes in prices of goods and services at the retail level
Indicator of Early indicator of changes in overall price level of economy Inflation that households experience in their day-to-day lives
Impact Affects production cost and supply chain Affects purchasing power of consumers
Calculation Based on price changes of goods sold in bulk to retailers or other businesses Based on price changes of goods and services purchased by households
Usage Used by policymakers to monitor changes in cost of production and production-level inflation Used by policymakers to monitor inflation and make decisions related to monetary policy
Examples Wholesale prices of raw materials, oil, and other commodities Retail prices of food, clothing, transportation, and other consumer goods and services

Rising food prices driving current inflation

  • Over 75% of the direct contribution to inflation in the first three quarters of the financial year came from sectors in which the Big 5 are unlikely to be represented in a big way.
  • The contribution of food products alone was close to 50% in most time periods.
  • Rising food prices are driving current inflation in India.

The current inflation control strategy

  • Considerable rise in food prices: In India, food prices have only risen, and in recent years their rate of inflation has been very high. For all the reforms since 1991, the real price of food, i.e., its price relative to the general price level, has risen considerably.
  • What matters most to public must be considered: In the context, to measure inflation without considering the price of food is to exclude what matters most to the public, as opposed to central bankers.
  • Current strategy restricted to using the interest rate to dampen aggregate demand: India’s inflation control strategy is currently restricted to using the interest rate to dampen aggregate demand. This strategy avoids addressing the challenge of ensuring the production of affordable food.
  • Question mark on RBI’s ability to control inflation: The RBI has been unable to control even the core inflation which central banks are assumed to be able to control. A recent intervention explaining core inflation in India has highlighted the RBI’s inability to control inflation.

Conclusion

  • Inflation is being discussed only in terms of core inflation, which excludes the inflation in food and fuel prices because these prices tend to fluctuate and even out the changes, so it is assumed that they do not require a policy response. However, this assumption is flawed in the context of India’s economy, as food and fuel prices have a significant impact on the economy and people’s livelihoods. Therefore, limiting the discussion to core inflation ignores the role of corporate pricing power and the impact of food and fuel prices on the economy.

Mains Question

Q. What is the factor that primarily drives inflation in India? Highlight the relationship between food price inflation and overall inflation in India?

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) Breakthrough

AI Regulation in India: Ensuring Responsible Development and Deployment

op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields,S&T - Applications In Everyday Life
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: AI applications and latest developments

Mains level: AI's limitless potential, challenges, risks and regulations

AI

Central Idea

  • As the deployment of Artificial intelligence (AI) based systems continues to grow, it is important for India to develop and implement regulations that promote responsible development and deployment, while also addressing concerns related to privacy, competition, and job losses.

The Potential of AI and its Risks

  • Limitless potential: The potential of AI is vast and encompasses a wide range of applications across various fields. AI has the potential to improve productivity, increase efficiency, and provide personalized solutions in many areas such as healthcare, finance, education, manufacturing, transportation, defense, space technology, molecular biology, deep water mining, and exploration.
  • Significant risks: While the potential of AI is immense, it also comes with significant risks that need to be addressed. Some of the risks associated with AI include biased algorithms, misdiagnosis or errors, loss of jobs for professionals, unintended harm or civilian casualties, and cybersecurity threats. It is important to ensure that AI development and deployment are carried out with caution and that potential risks are mitigated.

AI

Takeaway keyword Box from civilsdaily: AI applications in various fields, advantages, challenges and associated risks.

Fields AI Applications Advantages Challenges Risks
Healthcare Diagnosis and medical imaging, drug discovery, personalized medicine, virtual nursing assistants, remote monitoring of patients, health data analysis Improved accuracy and speed of diagnoses, personalized treatment plans, faster drug discovery, remote patient monitoring Integration with existing healthcare systems, ethical and regulatory concerns, data privacy and security Misdiagnosis or errors, biased algorithms, loss of jobs for healthcare professionals
Finance Fraud detection, customer service chatbots, personalized financial advice, risk assessment and management, trading algorithms Improved fraud detection and prevention, personalized customer support, optimized risk management, faster trading decisions Integration with existing financial systems, ethical and regulatory concerns, data privacy and security Biased algorithms, systemic risks, cyber attacks
Education Personalized learning, adaptive learning, intelligent tutoring systems, student engagement analytics, automated grading and feedback Improved student outcomes, personalized learning experiences, increased student engagement, reduced workload for educators Integration with existing education systems, ethical and regulatory concerns, data privacy and security Biased algorithms, loss of jobs for educators, lack of human interaction
Manufacturing Quality control, predictive maintenance, supply chain optimization, collaborative robots, autonomous vehicles, visual inspection Increased efficiency and productivity, reduced downtime, optimized supply chains, improved worker safety Integration with existing manufacturing systems, ethical and regulatory concerns, data privacy and security Malfunctioning robots or machines, loss of jobs for workers, high implementation costs
Transportation Autonomous vehicles, predictive maintenance, route optimization, intelligent traffic management, demand forecasting, ride-sharing and on-demand services Reduced accidents and fatalities, reduced congestion and emissions, optimized routing and scheduling, increased accessibility and convenience Integration with existing transportation systems, ethical and regulatory concerns, data privacy and security Malfunctioning autonomous vehicles, job displacement for drivers, cybersecurity threats
Agriculture Precision agriculture, crop monitoring and analysis, yield optimization, automated irrigation and fertilization, pest management, livestock monitoring Increased crop yields, reduced waste and resource use, optimized crop health, improved livestock management Integration with existing agriculture systems, ethical and regulatory concerns, data privacy and security Malfunctioning drones or sensors, loss of jobs for farm workers, biased algorithms
Defense Intelligent surveillance and threat detection, unmanned systems, autonomous weapons Improved situational awareness and response, reduced human risk in combat situations Ethical and legal concerns surrounding the use of autonomous weapons, risk of AI being hacked or malfunctioning in combat scenarios Unintended harm or civilian casualties, loss of jobs for military personnel
Space technology Autonomous navigation, intelligent data analysis, robotics Increased efficiency and productivity in space exploration, improved accuracy in data analysis Risk of AI being hacked or malfunctioning in space missions, ethical and regulatory concerns surrounding the use of autonomous systems in space Damage to equipment or loss of mission due to malfunctioning AI
Molecular biology Gene editing and analysis, drug discovery and development, personalized medicine Faster and more accurate analysis of genetic data, improved drug discovery and personalized treatment plans Ethical and regulatory concerns surrounding the use of AI in gene editing and personalized medicine Misuse of genetic data or personalized treatment plans, loss of jobs for medical professionals
Deep water mining and exploration Autonomous underwater vehicles, intelligent data analysis Increased efficiency and productivity in deep sea exploration and mining, improved accuracy in data analysis High costs and technical challenges of developing and deploying AI systems in deep sea environments Malfunctioning AI systems, environmental damage or destruction due to deep sea mining activities

The Need for Regulation

  • Current regulatory system not well equipped: The current regulatory system may not be equipped to deal with the risks posed by AI, especially in areas such as privacy and competition.
  • Develop regulations in collaboration: Governments need to work with tech companies to develop regulations that ensure the responsible development and deployment of AI systems.
  • Balanced regulations: The regulation needs to be adaptive, flexible and balance between the benefits and risks of AI technology. This way, AI technology can be developed while taking into account societal concerns.
  • Privacy Concerns and responsible usage: AI-based systems, such as facial recognition technology, raise concerns related to privacy and surveillance. Governments need to develop regulations that protect citizen privacy and ensure that data is collected and used in a responsible way.
  • Risk assessment: Risk assessment could help in determining the risks of AI-based systems and developing regulations that address those risks.
  • For instance: Europe’s risk assessment approach may serve as a useful model for India to develop such regulations.

Competition and Monopolization

  • AI powered checks and balance: The dominance of Big Tech in the tech landscape raises concerns of monopolization and the potential for deepening their control over the market. However, the presence of multiple players in the AI field generates checks and balances of its own.
  • Healthy market for AI technology: The development of new players and competitors can promote innovation and ensure a healthy market for AI technology.

AI

Conclusion

  • AI technology holds immense potential, but its risks need to be mitigated, and its development and deployment need to be carried out responsibly. Governments must work towards developing regulations that ensure that AI technology benefits society, while addressing concerns related to privacy, competition, and job losses. Responsible development and deployment of AI technology can lead to a brighter future for all.

Mains Question

Q. AI has limitless potential in various fields. In this light of this statement enumerate some of its key revolutionary applications in various fields and discuss challenges and associated risks of deploying AI in various fields.

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Women empowerment issues – Jobs,Reservation and education

Women Cadres (Maoist): Structural Violence and Exploitation

op-ed snap | Indian Society | Mains Paper 3: Inclusive Growth & Issues,Linkages Between Development & Spread Of Extremism
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Inner party women representation and hardships

Women Cadre

Central idea

  • The Communist Party of India (Maoist) claims to fight for gender equality, but the reality is that women cadres are subject to structural violence and exploitation.

Women’s representation in the party

  • Negligible representation in the council: Despite constituting 35%-40% of the party, women’s representation in the Central Committee and the Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC) is negligible
  • Members in the cadre: Only one-woman cadre is a Central Committee member out of more than 20 members, and only two women cadres are DKSZC members out of approximately 20 members

Concerns over women’s health and nutrition

  • Health challenges: Women face additional health challenges in the jungle and receive inadequate nutrition and healthcare. Most women become anaemic due to the lack of proper nutrition.
  • Menstrual hygiene challenges: Women cadres do not receive menstrual leave and need to be alert all the time with a gun. Only one loin cloth is provided to two women cadres to be shared as a sanitary napkin for six months.
  • Fundamental necessities are not adequate: Women cadres are not allowed to liberally use water and are at the mercy of the unit commander who carries some medical necessities

Conditions for marriage and reproduction

  • Marriage is not to enjoy family life: The party permits marriage only between willing partners to fight together, not to enjoy family life.
  • Forced vasectomy: Male cadres are forced to undergo vasectomy either before marriage or immediately after marriage.
  • Forced abortion: If a woman cadre gets pregnant, she has to undergo an abortion
  • Silent on divorce and polygamy: The party is silent on issues of divorce and polygamy

Sexual exploitation and ill-treatment of women

  • Sexual exploitation and ill treatment: Sexual exploitation of women is not uncommon in the party, and instances of suicide by women cadres due to ill-treatment and suspicion are reported.
  • Nominal punishment: Disciplinary action is taken against cadres for moral turpitude, but the maximum punishment is only suspension for a year or demotion.

Conclusion

  • Women who join the Communist Party of India (Maoist) in the hope of bringing about a revolution for the proletariat and the landless class are often subject to the same structural violence that they are supposed to fight. The party needs to ensure gender equality in reality, not just in its claims, and provide better conditions for women cadres.

Mains Question

Q. How do structural inequalities and power dynamics within political movements impact the fight for gender equality? Illustrate.

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Innovations in Sciences, IT, Computers, Robotics and Nanotechnology

Online Dispute Resolution (ODR): Bus to Become An Arbitration Hub

op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: E-Governance
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: ODR applications

Mains level: Online Dispute Resolution mechanism in India, advantages , challenges and measures

Online

Central Idea

  • India can still become a leader in dispute resolution despite missing the opportunity to establish itself as an arbitration hub. The use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) can enable India to enhance its ease of doing business and become a more preferred destination for dispute resolution.

India’s shortcomings in arbitration

  • India’s low rank in the ‘Enforcing Contracts’ category in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business report, which indicates the difficulties in enforcing contracts in India.
  • Although India has taken steps to improve its arbitration laws and regulations, it is not yet a preferred destination for arbitration.

India’s strengths in technology

  • India’s has demonstrated its strengths in technology, especially in the field of ODR.
  • India has a unique advantage in this area due to the widespread adoption of online technology during the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the judiciary lead the way in online hearings.

What is Online Dispute Resolution (ODR)?

  • ODR is a method of resolving disputes through the use of digital technology and the internet, without the need for physical presence in a traditional courtroom setting.
  • It involves the use of various tools and platforms such as video conferencing, case management systems, digital signatures, and even advanced technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to resolve disputes.
  • ODR offers many advantages over traditional methods of dispute resolution, such as reduced burden on courts, time and cost savings, and increased accessibility to dispute resolution services for parties located in different geographical locations.
  • ODR is becoming increasingly popular around the world, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic which has made physical hearings and meetings difficult or impossible in many cases.

Advantages of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) in India

  • Convenience: ODR provides a convenient way for parties to resolve disputes without the need to physically travel to a court or other dispute resolution center. This can save time and money, especially in cases where parties are located in different parts of the country.
  • Efficiency: ODR can help to streamline the dispute resolution process by providing tools such as case management systems, automated case flows, and digital signatures and stamping. This can help to reduce the time and costs associated with traditional dispute resolution methods.
  • Accessibility: ODR can make dispute resolution more accessible to individuals and businesses, especially those who may not have the resources to pursue traditional legal remedies.
  • Expertise: ODR platforms can provide access to experts in specific fields, such as intellectual property, international trade, or e-commerce, which can be especially useful in resolving disputes that involve complex legal issues.
  • Confidentiality: ODR can provide a confidential environment for parties to resolve disputes, which can be especially important in cases where sensitive business information is involved.
  • Flexibility: ODR can be tailored to the specific needs of the parties and the dispute, providing a more flexible and adaptable approach to dispute resolution than traditional legal methods.

Opportunities for ODR in India

  • ORD already in use: Private platforms in India are already resolving lakhs of disputes through ODR and that many corporates have migrated to ODR to resolve small-value disputes.
  • Look beyond the conventional tools: The ODR can be used for more than just audio/video conferencing and can encompass tools such as multi-channel communication, case management systems, automated case flows, digital signatures and stamping, and even advanced technologies such as blockchain, natural language processing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.

Measures to promote ODR

Three key measures that can be taken to promote ODR in India are as follows:

  1. Incentivizing the use of ODR: Incentivizing the use of ODR through legislative measures such as setting ODR as a default dispute resolution tool for online transactions, fast-tracking enforcement of ODR outcomes, and exempting or reducing stamp duty and court fees.
  2. Solving infrastructure challenges: Solving infrastructural challenges and optimizing existing setups such as Aadhaar kendras to also function as ODR kiosks. Each court can have an ODR cell along with supplemental technical and administrative support.
  3. Proactive use of ODR by government: Government departments should explore ODR as a grievance redress mechanism. Proactive use of ODR by government entities will not only increase trust in the process but also ensure that citizens have access to a convenient and cost-effective means of resolving disputes with the government.

Conclusion

  • The ODR has the potential to ensure justice for all, at everyone’s fingertips. While India may have missed the bus to become an arbitration hub, it can still catch up and overtake other countries in ODR.

Mains Question

Q. What is Online Dispute Resolution (ODR)? Discuss the advantages of ODR in India and suggest measures that can be taken to promote its use.

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Parliament – Sessions, Procedures, Motions, Committees etc

The 17th Lok Sabha: A Short-Lived Parliament with Low Productivity

op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Parliament & State Legislatures
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Lok Sabha and its devices

Mains level: Low productivity of Lok Sabha, reasons and implications

17th Lok Sabha

Central Idea

  • The 17th Lok Sabha is set to complete its five-year term in 2024. However, with only 230 sitting days so far, it is unlikely to surpass the 331 days of the shortest full-term Lok Sabha since 1952. The latest session, the Budget session, was marked by minimal legislative activity and continuous disruptions, with only one item, the Motion of Thanks on the President’s Address, being discussed.

Low Productivity of the 17th Lok Sabha

  • The Lok Sabha has functioned for only 33% of its scheduled time (46 hours) during the Budget session, with the Rajya Sabha working for 24% (32 hours).
  • The second part of the session was even more unproductive, with the Lok Sabha working for only 5% and the Rajya Sabha for 6% of their scheduled time.
  • The number of Bills introduced and passed has also declined significantly since the first session, with fewer than 10 Bills being introduced or passed in each of the last four sessions.
  • The latest Budget session was also one of the shortest since 1952, with the Lok Sabha spending only 18 hours on financial business, compared to an average of 55 hours in previous Budget sessions of the 17th Lok Sabha.
Lok Sabha Term Total Sitting Days Bills Introduced Bills Passed Average Sitting Days per Year
15th 2009-2014 357 244 181 71
16th 2014-2019 331 247 156 66
17th 2019-2024 Less than 331 (projected) 150 (as of April 2023) 131 (as of April 2023) 58 (projected)

Lack of Debates and Discussions

  • Short-duration discussions: The Rules of Procedure of both Houses of Parliament provide for various devices that can be used to draw attention to matters of public importance and hold the government accountable. However, in the 17th Lok Sabha, only 11 short-duration discussions and one half-an-hour discussion have been held so far, and none were held during the latest session.
  • Question Hour: This is despite the fact that the latest session saw the least amount of time spent on questions in the current Lok Sabha. Question Hour functioned for only 19% of the scheduled time in the Lok Sabha and 9% of the scheduled time in the Rajya Sabha.

Why the Lok Sabha’s productivity has been low?

  • Disruptions and Protests: The 17th Lok Sabha witnessed frequent disruptions and protests from opposition parties, leading to a significant loss of time and decreased productivity. Some of the major issues that led to disruptions include the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), National Register of Citizens (NRC), and farm laws.
  • Lack of Consensus: The ruling party enjoyed a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, but there was still a lack of consensus on many key issues, resulting in a delay in passing important bills and legislation.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic also contributed to the low productivity of the Lok Sabha as many sessions were delayed or cancelled due to safety concerns.
  • Speaker’s Decision: The decision of the Speaker of the Lok Sabha to disallow opposition MPs from raising certain issues also resulted in protests and disruptions, further reducing the productivity of the house.
  • Shorter Sessions: The 17th Lok Sabha had shorter sessions compared to previous Lok Sabhas, which also contributed to lower productivity. Many important bills and issues were left pending as there was not enough time to discuss and debate them thoroughly.

Implications of low productivity of the Lok Sabha

  • Delay in passing important bills: When the Lok Sabha is unable to function effectively, it can lead to a delay in passing important bills, which may have an adverse impact on the economy and governance. For example, crucial bills related to taxation, infrastructure, and social welfare may get delayed, affecting the overall progress of the country.
  • Poor quality of legislation: When the Lok Sabha is unable to function effectively, it may lead to poor quality of legislation. There may be a lack of debate and discussion, leading to hasty decision-making and poor-quality laws that may have unintended consequences.
  • Damage to democratic institutions: When the Lok Sabha is unable to function effectively, it can damage the democratic institutions of the country. It can erode the trust of citizens in the democratic process and lead to a feeling of disenchantment and disengagement among the people.
  • Wastage of taxpayers’ money: When the Lok Sabha is unable to function effectively, it leads to wastage of taxpayers’ money. The salaries and allowances of Members of Parliament are paid from the public exchequer, and if they are not able to discharge their duties effectively, it amounts to a waste of taxpayers’ money.
  • Negative impact on investor confidence: When the Lok Sabha is unable to function effectively, it can have a negative impact on investor confidence. Investors may be hesitant to invest in the country, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and development.
  • Lack of accountability: When the Lok Sabha is unable to function effectively, it may lead to a lack of accountability. Members of Parliament may not be held accountable for their actions, and the executive may be able to push through decisions without proper scrutiny or oversight.

17th Lok Sabha

Conclusion

  • The 17th Lok Sabha has been marked by low productivity and a lack of debates and discussions, despite the availability of mechanisms to hold the government accountable. The upcoming year is unlikely to see a significant increase in the number of sitting days. This lack of productivity and accountability could undermine the role of Parliament in a democracy and the ability of the government to pass important legislation.

Mains Question

Q. What are the reasons for the low productivity of the 17th Lok Sabha? What are the implications of its low productivity, and how might it affect the country’s progress and democratic institutions?

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Internal Security Trends and Incidents

India Must Take Khalistan Extremism Seriously and Address The Root Causes

op-ed snap | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: Organized Crime & Terrorism,Social Media Networks & Internal Security
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Internal security

Central Idea

  • The resurgence of Sikh extremism in the form of the self-styled Sikh extremist preacher Amritpal Singh, modelling himself on Bhindranwale of yore, has raised concerns in areas with a significant Sikh diaspora. The real cause for concern is that the current security dispensation has not learnt from past mistakes and needs to take appropriate action before the situation spirals out of control.

Background: Bhindranwale Phenomenon

  • The resemblance of the self-styled Sikh extremist preacher, Amritpal Singh, to Bhindranwale is limited to style and lacks substance.
  • However, the extremist fringe among Sikh youth, including the Sikh diaspora in Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US, seems to be galvanized by the imposter’s attempts to revive the Bhindranwale mystique.
  • The links have been established by this ‘core group’ with pro-Khalistan groups such as the Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), the Babbar Khasla, and the Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF).

Lessons from the Past

  • Inadequate current security dispensation: The current security dispensation does not appear to have learnt the right lessons from past mistakes.
  • Operation Blue Star: The Bhindranwale phenomenon was not a sudden development, and if it were properly handled, it could have been checkmated well before 1984, and the subsequent violence leading to ‘Operation Blue Star’ and the damage caused to Akal Takht could have been avoided.

What was the Khalistan movement?

  • Dates to pre-independence era: The Khalistan movement, which started in the 1940s during British rule, calls for establishing a separate nation for Sikhs. When India became independent and Punjab was partitioned, its leaders demanded a special status for the state. However, the Central Government did not pay attention to these demands, and Sikhs felt betrayed, leading to the idea of a separate nation growing substantially.
  • Rise of Bhindranwale: Many individuals and organizations contributed to the Sikh revivalist movement; however, Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale emerged as a charismatic leader after becoming the head of Damdami Taksal on August 25, 1977.
  • Failure to fulfil regional demand: Punjabi political parties, such as the Sikh Akali Party, failed to fulfil the regional demands concerning river waters and the transfer of Chandigarh as a capital city to Punjab. The devolution of power gave rise to Bhindranwale’s image among the masses.
  • Finally Military Operation: The military mission, OBS, was carried out between June 1 to June 10, 1984, to take control of key gurdwaras, including the Golden Temple in Amritsar, from Bhindranwale’s supporters. Bhindranwale was killed during the operation; however, in recent times, his image remains alive and well.

Why is it being revived?

  • Political instability: Punjab in recent years has witnessed a political crisis leading to a change in governments, ruling political parties and CM’s giving chance for radical outfits to grow.
  • Economic challenges: Punjab state has a high employment rate (According to data from the Centre’s Periodic Labour Force Survey 2019-20, Punjab’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average). Also, the year-long Farmers’ protest in 2021 and railways blockades have led to the creation of negative sentiments among investors about the state’s investment environment leading to decreasing investments in Punjab and rising unemployment.
  • Rising communalism: multiple events of blasphemy have taken place in the state which is flaming the fire of communalism among the people of the state.
  • Provocation from Pakistan: Investigations by security agencies suggest links between Khalistani groups and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – further increasing the likelihood of feelings of separatism due to drug trafficking and networking through Sikh pilgrimages.
  • Feeling to of persecuted minority: images of the 1984 anti-sikh riots and the topic of the non-persecution of culprits of the riots are being used to suggest that Sikhs are persecuted minority and thus they must have their own land in form of Khalistan.

Cause of concern

  • Threat to national security and integrity: the resurgence of the Khalistan movement is a threat to national security similar to the Kashmir and NE insurgency.
  • May darken Punjab’s future: a poor law and order situation may deter investors to invest in Punjab thus further deteriorating its economy and leading to spillover effects in social and political sectors.
  • Involvement of diaspora: The idea of forming a separate state for Sikhs has died down in Punjab; however, it has attracted the attention of a large audience in the diaspora who now have settled in other nations for long and thus have lost their affinity with India as their homeland.
  • Misuse of social media: which defies any international boundary, thus misused by separatists in Pakistan and other nations.
  • Bilateral relations may be harmed: the Khalistan issue has already harmed Indo- Canada relations and now straining Indo-UK due to the conduction of Referendum 2020 in these countries despite the Indian Government’s objection.

Avoiding Misreading of Sentiments

  • Wider perspective: Treating all that is happening now as evidence of a foreign conspiracy instead of facing up to the reality that this may be more than a mere emotional outburst of the Sikh extremist fringe is a grave mistake.
  • Finding the real cause: Blaming the current violence on the drug mafia with links to Pakistan can at best be a proximate, but not the real cause.

Confronting the Threat

  • Innovative ways: India needs to find ways and means to defeat the ‘siren call’ of radical extremists of every hue, whether they be Khalistanis or other kinds of extremists.
  • Ensure balance and sense of unity: It needs to steer between the extremes of the right and left and ensure a greater sense of unity within the country, according to individual dignity and human progress, and demonstrating leadership in the comity of nations.

Way ahead

  • The resurgence of Sikh extremism and the growing insecurity among Sikh youth and discontent prevailing among the Sikh peasantry needs to be addressed to prevent a repeat of the violent events that took place in the late 1970s to the 1990s.
  • Intelligence analysis should be prioritized to detect the signs of growing insecurity and discontent.
  • There is need for good intelligence to deal with the situation.

Conclusion

  • India should not yield to the temptation of resorting to hard measures without understanding the true causes and join the ranks of nations that solely believe in strong-arm methods. India needs to effectively confront the threat posed by radical extremists, such as the Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF) and the Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), while respecting liberal values and ensuring unity within the country.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

China’s Renaming Exercise Undermines International Law

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood - Relations
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: China's renaming strategy and its implications

Central Idea

  • China’s recent move to rename 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh and standardise those names on the basis of a map is an exercise of the Chinese perspective of international law, which goes against the international law widely adhered to by most members of the United Nations.

Historical Basis of China’s Claims

  • China’s claims over disputed territories, such as the South China Sea, are often based on historical records, maps, and cultural relics.
  • China argues that these territories had been its territory since the Song Dynasty and, therefore, should be considered part of its sovereign territory. However, this approach is not recognized under international law and undermines the basis of the international legal system.

Chinese perspective of international law

  • Jurisdiction rights: The Chinese perspective of international law is based on its strong stress on the principle of sovereignty. According to this view, sovereign states have an inalienable right to exercise jurisdiction over their territories and their people without interference from other states.
  • Historic rights: China combines its vision of sovereignty with the historic right to exercise jurisdiction over those territories or maritime areas as well, which were once ruled by a Chinese dynasty in the mediaeval or ancient era.
  • Undermines international legal system: The historic right approach makes China undermine the basis of the international legal system grounded in the sovereign equality of states and the general rules of international law.

Contravention of international courts and tribunals

  • Contravenes the decisions of international courts and tribunals: China’s attempt to rename 11 disputed locations on historical and administrative bases contravenes the decisions of international courts and tribunals.
  • No convincing proofs: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers direct evidence of possession and the actual exercise of sovereignty as more convincing proof of title to a territory than indirect presumption from events in history.
  • Against the principle of uti possidetis juris: China’s renaming exercise goes against the principle of uti possidetis juris, which is the principle that the boundaries of newly independent states should follow those of the previous colonies.
  • Help of cartographic materials: China tries to buttress its territorial and maritime claims with the support of maps, but cartographic materials do not have any legal value by themselves. They constitute extrinsic evidence of varying reliability that might, depending on the circumstances, be used together with other evidence to establish a fact.

What is the principle of uti possidetis juris?

  • The principle of uti possidetis juris is a Latin phrase that means as you possess under law.
  • It is a principle of international law that was developed in the context of decolonization. The principle holds that newly independent states should inherit the territorial boundaries that existed at the time of their independence.
  • The idea is that the territorial integrity of a new state should be protected and that the boundaries of the state should not be subject to change without the consent of the state.
  • The principle of uti possidetis juris is meant to prevent disputes over territorial boundaries that could lead to instability or conflict.

Implications of China’s actions

  • China’s actions in Arunachal Pradesh undermine the international legal system based on the sovereign equality of states and the general rules of international law.
  • China’s historic right approach to sovereignty over territories and maritime areas is a cause for concern for other countries with territorial disputes with China.
  • China’s use of maps to support its territorial and maritime claims is not a legally valid argument and undermines the legal basis for resolving territorial disputes.

Conclusion

  • China’s attempt to rename disputed territories in Arunachal Pradesh goes against established principles of international law and undermines the sovereign equality of states. The use of historical claims and maps to support territorial and maritime claims is not recognized in international law. This renaming exercise is likely to further strain India-China relations and impact regional stability. It is essential to uphold the principles of international law to ensure the independence and stability of new states and prevent challenges to territorial boundaries.

Mains Question

Q. What is the principle of uti possidetis juris? How does China’s attempt to rename territories in Arunachal Pradesh contravene the decisions of international courts and tribunals?

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Russia and China Aim To Build A Post-Western Order

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Russia, China and the West

Central Idea

  • Russia and China aim to exploit divisions within the West to transform the global order and build a post-Western order. However, the Indian strategic community should not expect the fault lines within the West to be fatal, as history has shown that such dreams have not come to fruition.

Post-Western Order

  • Building a post-Western order: Russia and China have talked of upending the world order before, with the history of international communism in the 20th century being about building a post-Western order.
  • America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe: While Moscow and Beijing are convinced that they can put the West on the defensive by pooling their strengths, the success of this strategy rests on the Moscow-Beijing axis successfully leveraging America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe.

Dividing America from Europe

  • The Moscow and Beijing are hoping to divide America from Europe: Russia’s latest version of its foreign policy doctrine singles out the US as the main instigator, organizer, and executor of the aggressive anti-Russian policy of the collective West.
  • China’s diplomatic Europe strategy: China’s love for Europe’s strategic autonomy is equally passionate. However, it is unlikely that there will be a decisive movement on either issue, but both sides see the diplomatic dance as a valuable exercise.

Sino-European Engagement

  • Europe’s pressure on Russia: Europe wants Xi to put pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine, and Beijing would like Europe to distance itself from the US on its China policy.
  • Europe not ready to busy China’s peace initiative: While Europe is not ready to buy China’s peace initiative on Ukraine, it has convinced itself that Xi is the only leader who can nudge Putin towards peace.

India’s Perspective

  • The realists in India are aware of the many differences between the US and Europe, but they are also aware that Western strategic unity has endured since World War II.
  • The Russian and Chinese overreach has cemented broad Western unity rather than separating Europe from the US.

Conclusion

  • While Russia and China aim to exploit divisions within the West to transform the global order, it is unlikely that they will succeed in building a post-Western order. The fault lines within the West are real, but they are by no means fatal.

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Renewable Energy – Wind, Tidal, Geothermal, etc.

Lessons Learned: Transition To A Self-reliant Clean Energy System

op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: India's transition to a self-reliant clean energy system.

Central Idea

  • Lessons learned from the liberalization of upstream petroleum sector can guide India’s transition to a self-reliant clean energy system.

Background

  • In 1980, then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi took a significant step in liberalizing the upstream petroleum sector in India. This move aimed to reduce the country’s reliance on external sources for petroleum and protect it from supply shocks. However, the liberalization did not bridge the gap between domestic demand and indigenous supply.
  • In 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme to promote investment in minerals, components, and equipment required for the generation and consumption of clean energy. This decision was driven by the strategic imperative to transition to a self-reliant clean energy system and reduce dependence on external sources of energy.

Bridging the gap between demand and supply in the clean energy sector

  • Demand and supply gap: The liberalization of upstream petroleum did not bridge the gap between the domestic demand for petroleum and indigenous supply.
  • Capital is not enough: The clean energy sector must not presume that the availability of technical talent and capital will be enough to create a world-class hub for the manufacture of batteries, solar cells, wafers, and modules.

Efficient Implementation of Technology in Clean Energy Sector

  • India’s oil and gas producing average: The recovery rate of oil and gas from India’s producing fields has averaged between 25-30%, while fields of comparable geology across the world have a recovery rate between 40-60%.
  • China’s dominance in clean energy value chain: China’s dominance of the clean energy value chain is because its process engineers have perfected the implementation of the several technological steps required to convert raw material into end product.

Reduce entry barriers and improve business condition

  • India cannot compete on the size of the incentive package, and the endeavor should instead be to lower entry barriers, ease business conditions and remove the perception that India offers a high-cost operating environment.

India’s Dependency on External Market and Two-Track Policy with China

  • India remains dependent on the external market for supplies of petroleum, but the country should desist from building a high-cost, domestic, clean energy hub that is forever dependent on subsidies.
  • India should continue with its two-track policy and strengthen its trading relationship with China.

Conclusion

  • India can learn from the lessons of the last 40 years to transition to a self-reliant clean energy system. The country needs to focus on creating an enabling ecosystem, efficiently utilizing technology, and easing business conditions to attract international investment. India should focus on trading relationships and not build a high-cost, domestic clean energy hub dependent on subsidies.

Mains Question

Q. India’s clean energy sector has enormous potential for growth, however there is a gap between domestic demand and indigenous supply. What specific measures can India take to bridge this gap and emerge as global leader in renewable energy?

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Global Implications

Finland-NATO-Russia: Search For Ways To Lower The Tensions

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NATO

Mains level: NATO expansion and its implications

NATO

Central Idea

  • Finland has become the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its decision to join the alliance should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence. The accession of Finland into NATO is a rational choice that may provide additional security guarantees and help to defend against possible aggression from Russia.

Historical context of Finland-Russia relations

  • The relationship between Finland and Russia has been a combination of struggle and compromise, dating back nearly 200 years.
  • In 1809, the Russian Tsar Alexander I acquired Finland and made it an autonomous Grand Duchy of the Russian empire.
  • Between the two world wars, the Finns felt less threatened by Germany than by Russia.

NATO

Finland’s decision to join NATO

  • 31st NATO member: Finland has become the 31st member of NATO, triggering possible countermeasures from Russia.
  • Independent choice: The decision to join NATO is seen as an independent choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  • Security guarantee: Finland’s accession to NATO is a rational choice to receive additional security guarantees from the alliance. Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty binds the members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the alliance.

Preparations for defense against possible aggression

  • Defence against possible aggression: Even prior to its membership in NATO, Finland had been preparing to defend itself against possible aggression.
  • The Finnish system of conscription has generated sufficient resources for the army, navy, and air force to act effectively in a war situation.

NATO

Implications for India and the Arctic region

  • Real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region: Finland has maintained a small but capable armed force that is well-trained and resilient, and its inclusion in NATO adds real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region.
  • High north is commercial attraction: As the Arctic ice cap melts amidst global warming, the high north has become attractive commercially and contested geopolitically.
  • India is an observer of the Arctic Council: India is an observer of the Arctic Council that seeks to promote wide-ranging cooperation in the polar north.
  • China raising profile in the Arctic: The militarisation of the high north appears inevitable as Finland and Sweden turn from neutrals to Western allies and China raises its profile in the Arctic in partnership with Russia.
  • Global governance: This might make global governance of the Arctic region increasingly problematic

Way ahead: The need for cautious behavior by NATO and Russia

  • Both NATO and Russia should exercise cautious behavior vis-à-vis each other to avoid further escalation of tensions.
  • Finland’s newly elected centre-right government should engage in bilateral dialogue with Russia, trying to understand each other’s security concerns.
  • There should be at least some NATO members who would be willing to rely more on diplomatic tools and lower the temperatures.

NATO

Conclusion

  • The decision of Finland to join NATO is seen as a rational choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The accession of Finland into NATO should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence and could potentially persuade an adversary not to initiate a war. NATO and Russia should search for ways to lower the tensions and avoid implementing measures and imposing countermeasures.

Mains Question

Q. Finland has become the 31st member of NATO. In this light discuss the rationale behind this decision its implications.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-United States

India-U.S. relationship: Critical Next Six Months

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: I2U2

Mains level: India-U.S. relationship

India-U.S.

Central Idea

  • The India-U.S. relationship will be crucial in the next six months with engagements set to happen between the two countries on various forums like the G20, Quad, and I2U2.

Divergence and Convergence

  • The appointment of Eric Garcetti as the U.S. Ambassador to India signals the potential for greater partnership, but there are also differences to be overcome.
  1. The U.S. may want India to change its stance on the Ukraine crisis.
  2. India may want a stronger position against China.
  • However, the two countries share strong areas of convergence such as
  1. The India-U.S. Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology and
  2. The Indo-Pacific partnership aimed at promoting security, economic growth, and connectivity in the region.

India-U.S.

What is I2U2?

  • In July 2022, India, Israel, the United States (US), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in a hybrid summit announced the establishment of a new minilateral grouping called the I2U2.
  • The four countries envision their alliance as an ad-hoc, informal, issue-specific and geoeconomic initiative.

Realignment of U.S. Supply Chains

  • Disrupted supply chains: In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying supply chains away from China due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and concerns about over-reliance on a single country.
  • India is emerging as attractive destination: India’s growing consumer market makes it an attractive destination for U.S. businesses looking to expand their customer base.

India-U.S.

Ups and Downs in India-U.S. relationship

  • The India-U.S. relationship has had its ups and downs over time, with key moments such as the nuclear deal, liberalisation of markets, and the outsourcing of Indian techies for U.S. companies.
  • The U.S. has also played an important role in making India an IT superpower.
  • The two countries are also partners in combating climate change and aligned on the importance of space technology.

Trust Deficit

  • In the past, there has been a trust deficit between India and the U.S., with Indians feeling that the U.S. has not always supported India and has instead supported Pakistan.
  • The U.S. has flagged issues related to terrorism, human rights, and democracy in India. However, the two countries can become stronger together by building on their strategic partnership.

Conclusion

  • The next six months will be critical for India-U.S. ties, with both countries looking to enhance collaboration and partnership. While there are differences in opinions to be addressed, the two countries also share strong areas of convergence that can be leveraged to strengthen their strategic partnership.

Mains Question

Q. What is I2U2 initiative? Evaluate how does it fit into the broader context of the India- US relationship?

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Social Media: Prospect and Challenges

Fake News: Addition of The Provision In Intermediary Guidelines

op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 3: Social Media Networks & Internal Security
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Dangers of Fake news and IT rules, 2021

Fake News

Central Idea

  • The addition of the fake news provision in the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021 (Intermediary Guidelines) must be seen in the context of protecting fundamental rights while combatting fake news. The recent addition by the central government clearly militates against settled law and the Constitution.

What is mean by Fake news?

  • Fake news refers to intentionally fabricated or misleading information presented as if it were real news. It can be spread through traditional media sources like newspapers or television, but it is more commonly associated with social media platforms and other online sources.
  • Fake news can range from completely made-up stories to misleading headlines and selectively edited or out-of-context information designed to deceive readers.
  • It is often used for political purposes, to manipulate public opinion or to spread misinformation about individuals, organizations or events.

Fake News

Existing Provisions to Combat Fake News

  • Intermediary Guidelines of 2021: The most preferred democratic process to combat the threats and impact of fake news on a polity would be through Parliament-enacted laws. India opted for the speedier alternative of an addition to the Intermediary Guidelines of 2021 (as amended), through Rule 3(1)(v).
  • Can not disseminate misleading content: Under this rule, intermediaries including social media platforms have to ensure that users do not disseminate content that deceives or misleads on the origin or knowingly and intentionally communicates any information which is patently false or misleading in nature but may reasonably be perceived as a fact.

Remedies Available

  • Complaints and grievance: Any complaints from users, government, or court have to be actioned by the grievance officer of an intermediary, including social media platforms, within 15 days. This timeframe for actioning a complaint for complaints of false or misleading news is reduced to 72 hours.
  • Resolution: The next step for resolution is provided through the Grievance Appellate Committees, which the government recently announced appointments for.
  • Other actions: These remedies are independent of and in addition to the remedies available in law for a government agency to seek takedowns or blocking, as per due process or for courts to decide thereon.

Fake News

Critique of the Addition

  • Provisions already exists: The recent addition of a separate category for restraint on dissemination by users of content in respect of any business of the Central Government is unwarranted as provisions already exist. The restraint is on users and not intermediaries, as misconceived by many. The onus on intermediaries is only of reasonable effort.
  • No transparency: With merely a central government-authorised fact check unit saying so, content could be classified as fake, false or misleading and a takedown and action necessitated, without even a semblance of due process.
  • No legitimacy: In the present instance, there is an absolute absence of legitimate aim for this additional restriction on users and an abject lack of procedures that would assure due process.

Reaffirming the Need for Legitimacy

  • The recent addition clearly militates against settled law and the Constitution: The Supreme Court in Puttaswamy judgment reaffirmed the need for legitimacy, supported by parliament enacted laws, which are proportionate to meet the test of constitutionality.
  • Media One case: Supreme Court’s recent judgment in the Media One case (Madhyamam Broadcasting Limited v. Union of India, April 5, 2023) reiterates that any law or regulation inconsistent with fundamental rights is void. This judgment also reaffirms the four principles that will decide the constitutionality of a law or regulation: (i) unreasonableness or irrationality; (ii) illegality; and (iii) procedural impropriety.

Fake News

Some of the dangers of fake news

  • Inciting communal violence: In India, fake news has been known to incite communal violence. For instance, the spread of fake news on social media was one of the factors behind the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.
  • Undermining public trust: Fake news can undermine public trust in institutions and the media. This can have serious consequences for democracy and social cohesion.
  • Impact on health: Fake news about health issues can have serious consequences. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, fake news about remedies and cures for the disease led to people consuming dangerous substances.
  • Misinformation during elections: Fake news can also be used to spread misinformation during elections, which can influence voters and distort the democratic process.
  • Economic harm: Fake news can cause economic harm by spreading false information about businesses, leading to loss of investor confidence and financial losses.
  • Spreading rumors: Fake news can also be used to spread rumors about individuals, which can have serious consequences, such as the recent case of fake news leading to the lynching of two men in Assam.

Conclusion

  • The recent addition is unsustainable and unwarranted as provisions already exist. The fight should be for the protection of fundamental rights that are essential to our very existence.

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Animal Husbandry, Dairy & Fisheries Sector – Pashudhan Sanjivani, E- Pashudhan Haat, etc

Fishing Industry: India and Sri Lanka Needs a Boost

op-ed snap | | Mains Paper 3: Economics Of Animal-Rearing
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Blue economy overview, Matsya Sampada Yojana and other such initiatives

Mains level: Blue economy, India's fisheries sector

Central Idea

  • The neglect of the fishing industry by India and Sri Lanka has resulted in an ongoing dispute over fishing rights in the Palk Strait. Developing the fishing industry could help resolve the conflict and boost the economies of both countries.

Fishing Industry

What is Blue Economy?

  • Origin of the concept: Gunter Pauli’s book, “The Blue Economy: 10 years, 100 innovations, 100 million jobs” (2010) brought the Blue Economy concept into prominence.
  • A project to find best nature inspired and sustainable technologies: Blue Economy began as a project to find 100 of the best nature-inspired technologies that could affect the economies of the world. While sustainably providing basic human needs potable water, food, jobs, and habitable shelter.
  • Inclusive approach and objective: This is envisaged as the integration of Ocean Economy development with the principles of social inclusion, environmental sustainability and innovative, dynamic business models
  • Environment friendly maritime infrastructure: It is creation of environment-friendly infrastructure in ocean, because larger cargo consignments can move directly from the mothership to the hinterland through inland waterways, obviating the need for trucks or railways

Indo-Sri Lankan dispute over fishing rights in Palk Strait

  • Maritime boundary agreement: The maritime boundary agreements signed in 1974 and 1976 allowed fishermen of both nations to fish in each other’s waters as they traditionally did.
  • Absence of physical demarcation: Lack of physical demarcation of maritime boundaries resulted in Indian fishermen encroaching into Sri Lankan waters during the civil war.
  • Rising conflicts: The Sri Lankan fishing community sought to reclaim their rights after the end of hostilities, leading to conflict with Indian fishers. Sri Lankan Navy’s intervention has resulted in arrests and even fatal shootings of Indian fishermen.

Neglect of the fishing industry by India and Sri Lanka

  • India’s marine fishery: India’s marine fishery has been dominated by the artisanal sector, which can afford only small sailboats or canoes to fish for subsistence.
  • Lack of investment: India’s fisheries are being transformed into a commercial enterprise, but lack of investment in a deepwater fleet results in most fishing taking place in coastal waters, leading to competition with neighboring countries.
  • Underexploited resources: Rich resources in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone remain underexploited, with much of the catch from India’s fishing grounds taken away by better-equipped fishing fleets of other Indo-Pacific countries indulging in illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing.
  • Growing tensions: Neglect of the fishing industry has resulted in dwindling fish stocks, rising fuel costs, and growing tensions between India and Sri Lanka.

Development of the fishing industry

  • China: China has mobilized its fishing industry to meet rising demand for protein in the Chinese diet and is now a fishery superpower.
  • India: India needs to invest in a deepwater fleet to exploit rich fishing grounds in its Exclusive Economic Zone and compete with other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • India must focus on modernisation: India should focus on mechanization and modernization of fishing vessels, developing deep-water fishing fleets, building a DWF fleet around the mother ship concept, and developing modern fishing harbours.

PM Matsya Sampada Yojana

  • PM Matsya Sampada Yojana is a scheme launched by the Government of India in 2020, with the aim of boosting the fisheries sector in the country. The scheme has a total outlay of Rs. 20,050 crores and is implemented over a period of five years from 2020-21 to 2024-25. The scheme is focused on four key areas of intervention, which include:
  1. Development of infrastructure and modernization of the fisheries sector: This involves the creation of new fishing harbours, fish landing centres, cold chain facilities, and other related infrastructure.
  2. Fisheries management and regulatory framework: This involves strengthening the regulatory framework for fisheries and aquaculture, promoting sustainable fishing practices, and conserving marine biodiversity.
  3. Fisheries post-harvest operations and value chain: This involves promoting the processing and value addition of fish and fishery products, and improving market access for fishermen and fish farmers.
  4. Aquaculture development: This involves promoting the development of inland fisheries and aquaculture, including the creation of new fish farms, and supporting the adoption of modern technologies for fish farming.

Conclusion

  • Neglect of the fishing industry by India and Sri Lanka has resulted in an ongoing dispute over fishing rights in the Palk Strait. Developing the fishing industry could help resolve the conflict and boost the economies of both countries. The government’s Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana could be used to form an Indo-Sri Lankan Fishing Corporation to provide a huge boost to the fishing industries of both nations and remove an unwanted irritant in bilateral relations.

Mains Question

Q. It is said that fishing industry has been overly neglected by India and Sri Lanka. Development of the fishing industry is crucial to boost the economy for both the countries. Discuss.

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) Breakthrough

Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Legislative Procedures

op-ed snap | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Innovations In AI and tools

Mains level: AI's diverse potential and its application for better governance

AI

Central Idea

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) has gained worldwide attention, and many mature democracies are using it for better legislative procedures. In India, AI can be used to assist parliamentarians in preparing responses for legislators, enhancing research quality, and obtaining information about any Bill, legislative drafting, amendments, interventions, and more. However, before AI can work in India, there is a need to codify the country’s laws, which are opaque, complex, and face a huge translation gap between law-making, law-implementing, and law-interpreting organizations.

What is Artificial Intelligence?

  • AI is a constellation of technologies that enable machines to act with higher levels of intelligence and emulate the human capabilities of sense, comprehend and act.
  • The natural language processing and inference engines can enable AI systems to analyze and understand the information collected.
  • An AI system can also take action through technologies such as expert systems and inference engines or undertake actions in the physical world.
  • These human-like capabilities are augmented by the ability to learn from experience and keep adapting over time.
  • AI systems are finding ever-wider application to supplement these capabilities across various sectors

Need to Codify Laws

  • Current laws are complex and opaque: Current laws in India pose many challenges, such as their complexity, opaqueness, and lack of a single source of truth.
  • The India Code portal does not provide complete information: The India Code portal is not enough to provide complete information about parent Acts, subordinate legislation, and amendment notifications.
  • AI can be used to provide comprehensive information: There is a need to make laws machine-consumable with a central law engine, which can be a single source of truth for all acts, subordinate pieces of legislation, gazettes, compliances, and regulations. AI can use this engine to provide information on applicable acts and compliances for entrepreneurs or recommend eligible welfare schemes for citizens.

Assisting Legislators

  • Potential of AI for legislators: AI can help Indian parliamentarians manage constituencies with a huge population by analysing citizens’ grievances and social media responses, flagging issues that need immediate attention and assisting in seeking citizen inputs for public consultation of laws and preparing a manifesto.
  • AI-powered assistance: Many Parliaments worldwide are now experimenting with AI-powered assistants.
  • For instance:
  • Netherlands’s Speech2Write system: The Speech2Write system in the Netherlands House of Representatives, which converts voice to text and translates voice into written reports.
  • AI tools Japan: Japan’s AI tool assists in preparing responses for its legislature and helps in selecting relevant highlights in parliamentary debates.
  • Brazil: Brazil has developed an AI system called Ulysses, which supports transparency and citizen participation.
  • NeVA portal India: India is also innovating and working towards making parliamentary activities digital through the ‘One Nation, One Application’ and the National e-Vidhan (NeVA) portal.

Simulating Potential Effects of Laws

  • Dataset modelling: AI can simulate the potential effects of laws by modelling various datasets such as the Census, data on household consumption, taxpayers, beneficiaries from various schemes, and public infrastructure.
  • Flag outdated laws: In that case, AI can uncover potential outcomes of a policy and flag outdated laws that require amendment.
  • For example: During the COVID-19 pandemic, ‘The Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897’ failed to address the situation when the virus overwhelmed the country. Several provisions in the Indian Penal Code (IPC) are controversial and redundant, such as Article 309 (attempted suicide) of the IPC continues to be a criminal offense. Many criminal legislation pieces enacted more than 100 years ago are of hardly any use today.

Conclusion

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has given a strong thrust to the Digital India initiative, and a digitization of services needs to be kept up in the field of law, policy-making, and parliamentary activities, harnessing the power of AI. However, the use of AI must be encouraged in an open, transparent, and citizen-friendly manner, as AI is a means to an end, not an end in itself. Therefore, it is necessary to address the current challenges faced by India’s laws before AI can be effectively used to assist parliamentarians in their legislative duties.

Mains Question

Q. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has gained worldwide attention, and many mature democracies are using it for better legislative procedures. In this light evaluate the potential of AI in assisting Indian parliamentarians.

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ISRO Missions and Discoveries

India’s Space Industry: Enormous Potential

op-ed snap | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Private Space companies in news

Mains level: India's space sector and role pf private companies and startups

Central Idea

  • India needs an enabling policy and regulatory environment to tap into the potential of the Second Space Age and its rapidly growing space economy.

What is mean by the Second Space Age?

  • Commercialization: The Second Space Age refers to the recent era of increased commercialization and private sector involvement in space exploration, which began in the early 2000s.
  • Emergence of private space companies: This period has been marked by the emergence of private space companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic, who are investing heavily in space technology and infrastructure.
  • Today’s space domain has many more actors once dominated by US and USSR: Compared to the First Space Age dominated by the US and the USSR, today’s space domain has many more actors, with a majority being private companies. Private companies account for 90% of global space launches since 2020, and India is no exception
  • Increasing involvement of non-spacefaring nations: The Second Space Age is also characterized by the increasing involvement of non-spacefaring nations in space exploration and the development of technologies that enable greater access to space for both commercial and scientific purposes.
  • Exploration: The hope is that this new era will lead to breakthroughs in areas like space tourism, asteroid mining, and Mars colonization, among others.

India’s Space Journey

  • India’s journey in space began modestly in the 1960s.
  • Societal objectives: Over the decades, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) prioritized societal objectives and benefits, such as developing satellite technology for mass communication, remote sensing for weather forecasting, resource mapping of forests, agricultural yields, groundwater and watersheds, fisheries and urban management, and satellite-aided navigation.
  • Enhanced launch capabilities: ISRO also developed satellite launch capabilities, beginning with the SLV-1 in the 1980s, followed by the PSLV series, which has become its workhorse with over 50 successful launches.

Facts for prelims

Steps taken to promote the space industry in India

Resulting Outcome
Creation of Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in 1969 Establishment of a strong foundation for space research and exploration in India
Launch of Aryabhata satellite in 1975 First satellite successfully launched by India
Establishment of the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) in 1972 Development of technologies for rocket and satellite launch
Launch of Rohini satellite in 1983 First satellite launched using an Indian-made launch vehicle
Launch of Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) in 1993 Capability to launch smaller satellites into orbit
Launch of Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) in 2001 Capability to launch larger and heavier satellites into orbit
Successful Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) in 2014 India became the first country to successfully launch a spacecraft to Mars in its first attempt
Formation of NewSpace India Limited (NSIL) in 2019 Increased involvement of private sector in space activities and commercialization of space technologies
Announcement of Gaganyaan mission in 2018 Development of human spaceflight capabilities in India

India’s Space Potential

  • Economy and employment: India’s space economy, estimated at $9.6 billion in 2020, is expected to be $13 billion by 2025. However, with an enabling policy and regulatory environment, the Indian space industry could exceed $60 billion by 2030, directly creating more than two lakh jobs.
  • Downstream activities: Downstream activities such as satellite services and associated ground segment are dominant, accounting for over 70% of India’s space economy.
  • Media and entertainment segment: Media and entertainment account for 26% of India’s space economy, with consumer and retail services accounting for another 21%.

The Growing Role of the Private Sector

  • Increasing space start ups: The Indian private sector is responding to the demands of the Second Space Age, with over 100 space start-ups today. From less than $3 million in 2018, investment in the sector has doubled in 2019 and crossed $65 million in 2021.
  • Potential of multiplier effect on economy: The sector is poised for take-off, as a transformative growth multiplier like the IT industry did for the national economy in the 1990s.

Way ahead: Creating an Enabling Environment

  • ISRO needs to focus on research and collaborate with the Indian private sector, which has different needs and demands.
  • To create an enabling environment for the private sector, India needs a space activity act that provides legal grounding, sets up a regulatory authority, and enables venture capital funding into the Indian space start-up industry.
  • Although a series of policy papers have been circulated in recent years, legislation is needed to provide legal backing and create an enabling environment for private sector growth.

Conclusion

  • India’s space industry has enormous potential, but realizing it requires an enabling policy and regulatory environment that encourages private sector growth. With a space activity act that provides legal backing, sets up a regulatory authority, and enables venture capital funding, India can take advantage of the Second Space Age and become a major player in the global space economy.

Mains Question

Q. What do you understand by mean Second Space Age? Highlight potential of India’s space industry and growing role of private sector

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Poverty Eradication – Definition, Debates, etc.

Poverty Estimates: Issues With PLFS Data

op-ed snap | Economics | : Poverty & Development Issues
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: PLFS and NSO data

Mains level: Poverty trends and estimates and issues

Central Idea

  • The claim of poverty reduction in India during the pandemic year of 2020-21 is contested due to discrepancies in data and survey design. The PLFS data is used to make this claim, and there are recent papers that have come up with divergent claims on trends in poverty, showing both a rapid decline in poverty as well as a sharp increase.

Use of Comparable Estimates

  • Poverty estimates in India have always been based on consumption estimates from the NSO, particularly based on the consumption expenditure surveys (CES).
  • The last official poverty estimates were for 2011-12, even though a comparable consumption survey was conducted in 2017-18.

What is Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)?

  • PLFS is a large-scale household survey conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO) of India.
  • It collects data on various aspects of the labour force in India, including employment, unemployment, and labour force participation rates. In addition to these labour force indicators, the PLFS also collects data on consumption expenditure, which can be used to estimate poverty levels.

Issue with PLFS Data

  • Estimates are not comparable: The PLFS estimates of poverty are not comparable with those from the CES, as the PLFS estimates are based on a single question.
  • Consumption estimates: The issue of sensitivity of consumption estimates to survey design, the level of aggregation and details has been extensively written about and was at the heart of the Great Indian Poverty Debate of the early 2000s.
  • Details about consumption expenditure is not just relevant: The sensitivity to the details of questions asked to collect consumption expenditure is not just relevant across different surveys but also across different rounds of the PLFS.

Poverty Trends

  • The first set of conclusions can be drawn for the period between 2011-12 and 2017-18.
  • Using the CES based full schedule and the leaked report for 2017-18, a rise in poverty can be seen.
  • For a similar time period, the single question asked in the earlier rounds of PLFS can be compared with the 2014-15 (72nd round) NSO survey on services and durable goods expenditure which had exactly the same question in the same block with the same instructions making them comparable to estimates from the PLFS from 2017-18 to 2019-20.
  • These suggest that the poverty headcount ratio was 27 per cent in 2014-15 and rose to 36 per cent in 2017-18, declining to 32 per cent in 2018-19 and remaining at that level in 2019-20.
  • Unfortunately, for the period during the pandemic (2019-20 to 2020-21) that the PM paper tries to address, it is difficult to say what happened based on available consumption data because of the questionnaire changes mentioned above.

Impact on Policy

  • The absence of official estimates on poverty is also a reflection of the lack of political priority of the government on such a crucial indicator.
  • Currently, a survey on consumption expenditure is being canvassed by the NSO which again follows a completely new methodology and schedule. While it may provide another set of estimates of consumption expenditure, it is unlikely to help resolve the poverty debate.

Conclusion

  • The issue of what happened to poverty after 2011-12 is crucial for policy. However, frequent interference in the statistical system through changes in survey and questionnaire design, suppression of data, and delaying the release of crucial data are making it difficult to have a correct assessment of reality. The absence of official estimates on poverty is a reflection of the lack of political priority of the government on such a crucial indicator.

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Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

Healthcare: Need For Compassionate Leadership

op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Role of compassion in healthcare

Central Idea

  • India’s rapid strides in health and healthcare with the help of a digital boom and the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission, and the need for compassionate leadership to ensure respectful healthcare.

India’s healthcare sector

  • India’s healthcare sector has shown improvement in multiple metrics due to the push for healthcare digitization, infrastructure, coverage, and other inputs.
  • However, healthcare is not just about the treatment of diseases or the availability of infrastructure but also about the overall wellness of the person.
  • Respectful healthcare that is available, affordable, accessible, and compassionate is a determinant of the quality of care.

Importance of Compassionate leadership

  • Respectful and compassionate healthcare is essential: Healthcare is a perpetually evolving, stressful, and high-risk industry that puts a vast burden on healthcare providers. It is essential to navigate and manage the situation compassionately to deliver respectful care.
  • Compassion is a beating heart if healthcare: Compassionate leadership is required to build this type of healthcare system, as it is the quiet, beating heart of the entire healthcare system.

Curriculum for compassionate healthcare

  • Compassionate curriculum is very necessary: To integrate compassion into the healthcare system at every stage, it is necessary to build a curriculum and deliver it to those responsible for administering healthcare respectfully.
  • Curriculum with Dalai Lama’s vision rolled out in Bihar: An eight-stage curriculum, developed by Emory University, that furthers the Dalai Lama’s vision of educating both heart and mind for the greater good of humanity is being rolled out in Bihar.
  • Impact: To date, 1,200 healthcare providers across 20 districts have been impacted by the vital components of the cognitive-based compassion training, creating compassionate leaders at every level.

Institutionalizing compassionate healthcare

  • Institutionalizing will bring in real change: While the curriculum is a quantum leap towards building compassionate leadership, institutionalizing it will bring in real change.
  • Adopting at each level: Every academic institution and every department mandated with the responsibility to deliver health-related learning should develop and adopt compassion-based curricula.
  • Building capacity: State and regional health institutions must also be built with the capacity to deliver compassionate leadership. Partnerships with established academia and development sector organizations can enable the organizing of master coaches and master facilitators, thereby creating public goods that can be delivered by all.

Strengthening internal systems

  • Making compassion intrinsic to the ethos: All healthcare providers are expected to carry out a wide range of tasks within the system, which often leads to burnout and impacts patient experience adversely. It is vital to strengthen systems internally to make respect and compassion intrinsic to the ethos.
  • Building a network: Building a network of compassionate practitioners in every state, district and block hospital is crucial to fan the winds of change by starting with self-compassion first and then moving to compassion for others.
  • Valuing and measuring organizational culture: Valuing and measuring organizational culture is just as critical as patient outcomes. Developing sound metrics to measure culture and employee satisfaction, self-compassion, and compassion for the team assumes greater significance to building an institution whose foundation is compassion.

Conclusion

  • Respectful healthcare is already mentioned in the National Health Mission (NHM) guidelines, and such guidelines need to be the warp and weft of every policy and every guideline developed by public health authorities to improve patient experience. Compassionate leadership can truly realize India’s historically known values of compassion and bring alive the words of Hippocrates, the father of medicine, “Wherever the art of medicine is loved, there is also a love of humanity”.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Arunachal Pradesh: China’s Cartographic Deception

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood - Relations
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: China's attempts to use cartography as a weapon

Central Idea

  • The Chinese leadership has been using cartographic deception as a weapon to violate the sovereign national boundaries of its neighbours, and India has been a victim of this deception since Independence. The recent rechristening of villages and areas in Arunachal Pradesh is another example of China’s cartographic deception, and India must remain vigilant against such tactics.

Background: India-China relations

  1. Historical context:
  • India has been a victim of China’s deception since its independence.
  • Mao’s Red Army sent messages to Indian Communists promising support in their violent liberation struggle to overthrow the government of Jawaharlal Nehru.
  • In the early 1950s, China started staking claims to large parts of Indian territory.
  1. Cartographic deception used by China:
  • Cartographic deception is integral to the Chinese leadership’s machinations.
  • China has been indulging in cartographic deception by staking claims to large parts of Indian territory.
  • The recent rechristening of villages and areas in Arunachal Pradesh by the Chinese cabinet is another example of that cartographic deception.
  • Despite President Xi Jinping’s claims of standing guard over the world order based on international law, China continues to use cartography as a weapon to violate sovereign national boundaries of its neighbours.

How cartography is used as a weapon?

  • Deliberate manipulation of maps: The term use of cartography as a weapon refers to the deliberate manipulation of maps for political and strategic purposes. This can involve drawing new borders or redefining existing borders, claiming territory that was previously not contested or that belonged to another country, and renaming places to support these claims.
  • Psychological warfare technique: It is often accompanied by historical revisionism, propaganda, and the creation of artificial historical links to justify these claims. This approach can be seen as a form of psychological warfare, intended to create confusion, weaken the opponent’s resolve, and undermine its legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.

Historical background of Arunachal Pradesh

  • No contact with China: Historically, Arunachal Pradesh had no contact with China, and there was never any Chinese presence there.
  • Shimla Agreement: The McMahon Line, which became the international boundary between India and Tibet through the Shimla Agreement between the British and Tibetan governments in 1914, clearly puts Tawang, which fell south of the McMahon Line, out of Tibetan administrative control.
  • Claims over Tawang: Attempts by pro-China historians to claim that parts of Western Arunachal Pradesh like Tawang were under the rule of Lhasa before 1950 are negated by historical records.

Chinese invasion of Arunachal Pradesh in 1962

  • During the Chinese invasion of Arunachal Pradesh in 1962, they were extra-cordial with the locals and made special efforts to convince them about the greater racial affinity between them.
  • However, despite all the deceptive maneuvers during the 49-day-long occupation, the Chinese could not win over the hearts and minds of the people of NEFA.

Conclusion

  • India must remain vigilant against China’s cartographic deception, as it was through a similar deception in 1962 that China annexed territory. India has dismissed the recent rechristening exercise by China, and rightly emphasised that Arunachal Pradesh is, has been, and will always be an integral and inalienable part of India. India must continue to stand firm against China’s attempts to use cartography as a weapon to violate its sovereign national boundaries.

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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

RBI’s Pause On Repo Rate Hike: Concerns Over Inflation And Global Pressures Remain

op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Basic concepts

Mains level: RBI's pause on rate hikes, reasons and implications

RBI

Central Idea

  • The RBI has decided to not increase the repo rate amid continuing hikes by important central banks such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB), and domestic inflation concerns. However, if incoming data point to rising inflation risks, this decision could prove to be only a pause in the rate hiking cycle.

The RBI’s decision to pause on rate hikes

  • The RBI feels that money market rates have effectively risen more than the 250-basis-point yank in the repo rate since May 2022, and hence it decided to pause and assess the impact of rate hikes.
  • The key reason behind the MPC decision is the expectation of a decline in inflation to 5.2% in the current fiscal, driven by a healthy rabi crop, normal monsoon, moderating international commodity prices, and the impact of rate hikes.
  • The RBI acknowledges the upside risks and stated its readiness to fight any unexpected rise in inflation.

Impact on GDP growth

  • The RBI expects GDP growth to slow to 6% from 7% this fiscal as slowing global growth, domestic interest rates, and messy geopolitics bite.
  • Slowing global growth will be net negative for India’s exports, and the growing dependence on commodity exports makes India more vulnerable to global growth volatility.
  • Fiscal 2024 will, therefore, test the resilience of India’s domestic demand amid rising interest rates.

Reasons for the expected cooling of consumer inflation

  • Fuel inflation expected to reduce: Fuel inflation is expected to reduce to 3% from a high of over 10% in the current fiscal because some easing of crude oil prices is likely as global growth slows down.
  • Decline in core inflation: Slowing domestic growth will ease core inflation from very sticky levels of over 6% last fiscal to 5.5% in the current one. However, the decline in core inflation will be limited as input cost pressures have not dissipated. To protect their margins, firms will continue to pass on input costs to end-consumer. Services inflation will also continue to exert pressure as the rotation of consumption demand from goods to services continues.
  • Moderate food inflation: Food inflation, which has a high weightage in the Consumer Price Index and has driven headline inflation in the past, is projected to moderate to slightly below 5%, assuming a normal monsoon. However, food inflation has always been volatile and carries upside risks largely because of climate-related factors affecting agriculture output and prices.

How slowing global growth will have a negative impact on India’s exports?

  • The impact of the growth slowdown in the US and Europe is deeper than the recovery in China: The US and Europe have a combined GDP that is twice that of China. Therefore, the impact of the growth slowdown in the US and Europe will be deeper than the recovery in China. This will have a negative impact on India’s exports to the US and Europe.
  • India’s exports to the US and Europe are more than to China by a factor of six: India exports more to the US and Europe than to China by a factor of six. Therefore, the negative impact of the growth slowdown in the US and Europe will be felt more by India than by China.
  • India’s growing dependence on commodity exports makes it more vulnerable to global growth volatility: India’s exports of petroleum products and steel are growing, and this makes India more vulnerable to global growth volatility. As global growth slows down, demand for commodities is likely to decline, which will have a negative impact on India’s exports.

External vulnerabilities

  • India’s external vulnerability is expected to decline with a narrower current account deficit (CAD) and modest short-term external debt.
  • The CAD is expected to narrow to 2% of GDP this fiscal from an estimated 2.5% last fiscal.

Conclusion

  • The RBI’s decision to pause on rate hikes is driven by expectations of a decline in inflation. However, inflation risks remain, and the impact of rate hikes on GDP growth is expected to be significant. India’s external vulnerabilities are expected to decline, but the banking turmoil playing out amid interest rate hikes by important central banks and elevated debt levels remains a risk. The RBI’s decision to pause on rate hikes will be closely watched, and further rate hikes may be necessary if inflation risks persist.

Mains Question

Q. Enumerate the factors that led RBI to pause on rate hikes, and discuss the potential risks and impacts on the Indian economy?

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

India-Bhutan Relationship Built On Faith and Mutual trust

op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood - Relations
Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: India- Bhutan border and trijunction

Mains level: India- Bhutan relationship

Relationship

Central Idea

  • India-Bhutan’s exemplary relationship has been a key factor in ensuring the stability and security of the region. The recent visit of Bhutan King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck to India was focused on enhancing the bilateral relationship between the two countries. However, the unspoken part of the visit was the Bhutan-China boundary talks, which have gained momentum in recent times.

Exemplary India-Bhutan Relationship

  • Special and strategic relationship: India and Bhutan share a special and strategic relationship with a border of over 600 km. The bond has been strengthened since India’s independence, and it has been a buffer between China and India.
  • India is Bhutan’s largest development partner: The relationship is not limited to rhetoric but extends to an institutional and economic framework. India is Bhutan’s largest development partner, and Bhutan is India’s biggest trade partner in the region.
  • Hydroelectricity, a crucial factor: Hydroelectricity has become the biggest revenue earner of Bhutan, and India buys power generated in Bhutan. It makes Bhutan the country with the highest per capita income in South Asia today.
  • Historical and theological relations: Bhutan is a Buddhist theocracy, monarchy, and modern state. The relationship between India and Bhutan is special from a historical, theological, strategic, and economic perspective.

Bhutan-China Boundary Talks

  • Considerable progress but no decision yet: Before the King’s visit to India, Bhutanese Prime Minister Lotay Tshering had said in an interview that Bhutan and China have made considerable progress on demarcating border lines. Bhutan has been having talks with China on the boundary question for years, and there has been no decision yet.
  • There will be adjustment of territory: Bhutan and China are adopting a modern methodology to draw boundary lines on the ground, and there may be some adjustment of territory as a result of that.
  • India’s strategic interests: India’s strategic interests are involved in the boundary talks between Bhutan and China. China has been seeking a toehold in Bhutan for decades. Bhutan is fully conscious of India’s strategic needs.
  • Trijunction: Where Bhutan decides its boundary with China (to the west) is of exceptional relevance to India because that is a trijunction of the three countries.

Relationship

India’s Strategic Interests

  • No compromise on national security: India will not talk about Bhutan-China negotiations publicly; however, when it comes to India’s national security, there will be no compromise.
  • Siliguri corridor: Doklam plateau overlooks the Chumbi Valley, which overlooks the chicken’s neck (Siliguri corridor). India says this not because Bhutan is threatening its cooperation with India on this front, but to send a message to China that we will draw a line here in conformity with our national interest.

Why India needs Bhutan?

  • Strategic location: Bhutan is strategically located between India and China, which makes it an important buffer state for India. Bhutan’s strategic location ensures India’s security and helps in maintaining regional stability.
  • Water resources: Bhutan is the source of several rivers that flow into India, including the Brahmaputra, the Sankosh, and the Manas. India needs access to these rivers for irrigation, hydroelectric power generation, and other purposes. India has helped Bhutan in developing its hydropower potential and has signed several agreements for the purchase of hydropower from Bhutan.
  • Trade and economic ties: India is Bhutan’s largest trading partner, and Bhutan relies heavily on India for its imports and exports. India provides Bhutan with various economic assistance and has helped Bhutan in its development process.
  • Cultural and historical ties: India and Bhutan share a common cultural heritage and have historical ties dating back centuries. India has helped Bhutan preserve its cultural heritage and has supported Bhutan in its efforts to promote tourism.

Why Bhutan needs India?

  • Security: Bhutan does not have a large army, and India provides security assistance to Bhutan. India has helped Bhutan in building its border infrastructure and has helped in the development of the Bhutanese army.
  • Economic ties: India is Bhutan’s largest trading partner, and Bhutan relies heavily on India for its imports and exports. India provides economic assistance to Bhutan, and Indian companies have invested in various sectors in Bhutan.
  • Infrastructure: India has helped Bhutan in building its infrastructure, including roads, airports, and telecommunication networks. India has also helped Bhutan in developing its hydropower potential, and several hydropower projects in Bhutan have been built with Indian assistance.
  • Education and healthcare: India has helped Bhutan in the field of education and healthcare. Many Bhutanese students study in India, and India provides scholarships and grants to Bhutanese students. India has also helped Bhutan in building hospitals and providing medical assistance.
  • Cultural and historical ties: Bhutan and India share a common cultural heritage and have historical ties dating back centuries. India has helped Bhutan in preserving its cultural heritage and has supported Bhutan in its efforts to promote tourism.

Future of India-Bhutan Relations

  • The Bhutan-India relationship has survived because of spiritual underpinnings, geography, economy, and connectivity, all of which strengthen the relationship.
  • India and Bhutan have survived mainly because it was built on mutual trust, which means Bhutan has equally driven the relationship. India should pursue this relationship with trust and complete faith.
  • India must reach out to the new generation in Bhutan, which is being influenced by social media negativity and wrong information about India.

Conclusion

  • The India-Bhutan relationship has been a key factor in ensuring the stability and security of the region. The relationship between the two countries has been built on mutual trust and has been strengthened by an institutional and economic framework. India’s strategic interests are involved in the boundary talks between Bhutan and China. India should pursue the relationship with trust and complete faith and should reach out to the new generation in Bhutan.

Mains Question

Q. Highlight the significance of the India-Bhutan relationship in ensuring regional stability and security? Discuss why India and Bhutan need each other?

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