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  • The Crisis In The Middle East

    Jordan Crisis and its significance for the Arab Region

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

    The royal household in Jordan has recently seen intense drama, with the King’s popular half-brother and former crown prince was placed under de facto house arrest.

    Study the map; especially, the Israel-Jordan border and Dead Sea.

    Signs of a Coup

    • Jordanian government statements have has stated that there had been an attempted coup to destabilize the country, mentioning unnamed “foreign entities” involved in the plot.
    • The events have thus put a spotlight on Jordan’s unique position as one of the most stable countries in the Arab world, and given rise to questions about who could stand to benefit from the alleged coup.

    Jordan’s stability matters

    • Jordan, which this year celebrates 100 years since its creation after World War I, has for decades remained stable in a part of the world that is prone to conflict and political uncertainty.
    • For its allies in the West and in the Gulf, Jordan is a strategic partner which can be relied upon for furthering political objectives in the region, which includes war-torn Syria and Iraq as well as conflict-prone Israel and Palestine.
    • The support of Jordanian intelligence has proven critically important in the fight against terrorism.
    • Though impoverished, the country of about a crore people has served as a haven for refugees in the conflict-ridden region.

    The asylum giver

    • After the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967, Jordan received waves of refugees, to the point that about half of Jordan’s population today is made up of Palestinians.
    • It has also welcomed refugees after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, and currently hosts over 10 lakh from Syria, where a protracted civil war is going on.
    • Jordan is also considered important to any future peace deal between Israel and Palestine.

    How does Jordan get along with regional powers?

    (1) West

    • Traditionally, Jordan has maintained close relations with the US, and the fellow Sunni Muslim powers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together stand against Shia Iran.
    • It also has diplomatic relations with Israel, and the two countries have been bound by a peace treaty since 1994.

    (2) Within Gulf

    • In recent years, however, Jordan’s relations with the Saudis and UAE have seen ups and downs.
    • It has been particularly since the rise of their respective crown prince’s Mohammed bin Salman (known by initials MBS) and Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ).
    • One of the points of friction was Saudi-UAE’s blockade of Qatar in 2017.
    • It caused further consternation in Saudi and Emirati circles by maintaining strong ties with Turkey.

    (3) Ties with Israel

    • Jordan’s role as the region’s interlocutor has also diminished since last year, after the UAE normalized relations with Israel.

    What have the powers said of the alleged coup?

    • Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed full support for King Abdullah. The US has called the ruler a “key partner”.
    • To drive home the point, Saudi Arabia sent its foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, to Jordan’s capital Amman to express complete solidarity with Jordan’s King and his government.
    • Saudi and the UAE have little to gain by destabilizing Jordan, a country that has long served as a dependable ally.

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  • RBI Notifications

    Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP)

    Prelims Only | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    What is the first phase of operation?

    • The RBI has officially notified that it would conduct the first phase of G-SAP 1.0 operations on April 15, 2021.
    • It will begin with the purchase of five dated securities for an amount aggregating to Rs 25,000 crore.
    • The first phase of G-SAP purchase will happen using the multiple price method under which the bidders pay at the respective rate they had bid.
    • The RBI has notified four securities for the G-Sec purchase in different maturities.
    • In addition to the G-SAP plan, the RBI will also continue to deploy regular operations.
    • This would be under the LAF, longer-term repo/reverse repo auctions, forex operations and open market operations including special OMOs.
    • This is to ensure that the liquidity conditions evolve in consonance with the stance of monetary policy.

    What are the concerns?

    • Interest rates – For the Government, the RBI keeping the yield down is a good news because the overall borrowing costs go down.
    • But, the RBI artificially keeping the interest rates lower in the financial system has caused concerns.
    • In healthy economic system, the interest rates pricing should be driven by demand-supply.
    • It shouldn’t be artificially suppressed by the central bank; this might lead to distortions and have other consequences.
    • Savers – Cheaper rates will be good news to big, top rated companies who can issue bonds to raise money and to the government.
    • But low interest rates coupled with high inflation is a systemic worry for savers.
    • Already, savers are getting negative returns on their deposits if one takes into account the inflation adjusted rates or real rates.
    • Rupee – Government resorting to massive bond purchase to keep the rates low is not good news for the local currency.
    • The Indian Rupee, notably, came under pressure after the RBI announced the massive Rs 1 lakh crore bond purchase programme.
    • The fear of investors pulling capital out of India in a low interest environment is hurting the local currency.

     

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  • Water Management – Institutional Reforms, Conservation Efforts, etc.

    ‘Seechewal Model’ of wastewater management

    Prelims Only | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    A new wastewater treatment plant opened recently in a village in Punjab’s Patiala district uses a unique method devised to treat, recycle and reuse wastewater.

    Seechewal Model

    • The plant in the village of Patiala aims to achieve the following objective using the ‘Seechewal Model’ of wastewater management:
    1. Recycling and reusing the treated wastewater for irrigation
    2. Preventing further contamination of groundwater
    • The model is a pipe-and-pump formula used to remove heavy solid particles, oil and other material from water.
    • It was introduced by Sant Balbir Singh Seechewal and was first used in Seechewal, Punjab.
    • The project aims to implement a combination of processes through four-well systems of wastewater treatment for reuse apart from human consumption.
    • The water wells need to be cleaned regularly; otherwise, they produce extremely poor effluents with high suspended solids, which can be detrimental to the constructed wetland and cause clogging of beds.
    • To ensure continuous and effective operation, the accumulated material must be emptied periodically.

    Benefits  offered

    • The project will reduce the usage of freshwater by providing an option of treated water to farmers. It will aim at water sustainability with appropriate technologies of water recycle-reuse-recharge.”
    • The project has engaged, empowered and evolved community sustained processes for water management and strengthened community collectives.

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  • Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

    [pib]  ‘Anamaya’ Initiative

    PIB | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Health & Education

    Anamaya, the Tribal Health Collaborative was recently launched.

    Simply keep in mind, the name and purpose.

    ‘Anamaya’ Initiative

    • The Collaborative is a multi-stakeholder initiative of the Tribal Affairs Ministry supported by Piramal Foundation and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF).
    • It aims to build a sustainable, high-performing health eco-system to address the key health challenges faced by the tribal population of India.
    • It will converge efforts of various Government agencies and organisations to enhance the health and nutrition status of the tribal communities of India.
    • This collaborative is a unique initiative bringing together governments, philanthropists, national and international foundations, NGOs/CBOs to end all preventable deaths among the tribal communities of India.

    Terms of references

    • It will begin its operations with 50 tribal, Aspirational Districts (with more than 20% ST population) across 6 high tribal population states.
    • Over a 10-year period, the work of the THC will be extended to 177 tribal Districts as recognised by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs.

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  • Internal Security Trends and Incidents

    A holistic review of internal security challenge and response to them is needed

    op-ed snap | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: Various Security Forces, Agencies & Their Mandates

    The article highlights the issues facing India’s internal security architecture and suggests the restructuring of roles and capacity building to address the challenge.

    Recent setback to internal security (IS) capability

    • The COMBING OPERATION by local and central police forces in the Tekulguda region of Bastar went terribly wrong and resulted in the death of 22 security personnel.
    • This tragic incident is a major and embarrassing setback to the IS (internal security) capability of India at many levels and highlights the challenge that LWE (left-wing extremism) continues to pose. 

    Strategic inadequacies

    • India has been dealing with three variants of the internal security challenge for decades.
    • These three are: 1) a proxy war and terrorism in Kashmir 2) sub-national separatist movements in the Northeast. 3) the Naxal-Maoist insurgency ( LWE) in the Red Corridor.
    • And these challenges have warranted different responses.
    • The first two strands have been reasonably contained.
    • LWE and the current Maoist movement has its genesis in poor governance, lack of development in the tribal belt and an oppressive/exploitative hierarchy of the state and society.
    •  In November 2005, then PM Manmohan Singh described the LWE challenge as the most serious security threat to India and exhorted the professionals to evolve appropriate responses.

    Need for restructuring

    • One of the recommendations of the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) report was the restructuring of the role and the tasks of the para-military forces particularly with reference to command and control and leadership functions.
    • This critical component of restructuring the leadership of the central police forces (in this case the CRPF and BSF) has not been addressed, much less redressed.
    • By training, the police officer is expected to be a competent Superintendent and to maintain law and order.
    • This is not the skill-set that is relevant when an officer has to “command” and lead his men into insurgency operations.
    • In the current scenario, barring a few exceptions, many of the senior police officers (IPS cadre) who are introduced into the central police forces at senior ranks have little or no platoon/battalion experience. 

    Consider the question “What are the factors making Left Wing Extremism such a persistent internal security problem for India? Suggest the measure to improve the internal security architecture in India.”

    Conclusion

    The political leadership of the country needs to act and complete the task of restructuring and capacity building to address India’s internal security challenge.

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  • Electoral Reforms In India

    Need to remove the secrecy around the electoral bonds

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters,Government Scheme/Policies,Representation Of People’s Act

    The article highlights the issues with the electoral bond scheme and suggests an alternatives.

    Secrecy in donations

    • Before the electoral bond scheme, every transaction of more than Rs 20,000 was reported to the Election Commission.
    • Now even Rs 20 crore or Rs 200 crore could be donated anonymously. 
    • Why should donors want secrecy? To hide return favours, like contracts, licences and bank loans.
    • Both the RBI and ECI, standing up to their mandates, had registered their strong protest.

    How electoral bond scheme led to changes in provisions of other Acts

    • To make way for electoral bonds amendments were introduced in the Reserve Bank of India Act, Companies Act, Income Tax Act, Representation of the People Act and Foreign Contribution Regulations Act.
    • There were three serious changes which did not receive the deserved attention.

    1) Limit of 7.5 per cent removed

    • First, the limit of 7.5 per cent of its profits which a company could donate was not just increased but completely done away with by amending section 182 of the Companies Act, 2013.
    • Thus a company could donate 100 per cent of its profits to a political party.
    • Even a loss-making company could make political donations.
    • This is a sure step to legitimise and legalise crony capitalism.

    2) Requirement of resolution removed

    • The requirements for a resolution by the board of directors for a company to make donations to political parties and to declare the political donations in the profit and loss accounts were also removed.
    • This would allow keeping the donations secret not only from the public but the owners of the company, the shareholders — ironically, all in the name of transparency.

    3) Secrecy in contribution from foreign source

    • Section 29B of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 prohibits all political parties from accepting any contribution from a “foreign source.”
    • Section 3 of the 2010 Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act bars candidates, legislative members, political parties and party officeholders from accepting foreign contributions.
    • When the High Court of Delhi in 2014 found Congress and BJP having accepted foreign funds in violation of the FCRA 1976, the government passed a retroactive amendment through a 2016 Finance Bill which repealed the 1976 Act and replaced it with the modified 2010 statute.
    • If any foreign country is financing our elections, it will now be a protected secret.

    Way forward

    • The Supreme Court’s concern about the possibility of misuse of funds is very pertinent.
    • The EC has been demanding that a law be passed to make political parties liable to get their accounts audited by an auditor from a panel suggested by the CAG or EC.
    • If the government don’t want to abolish the electoral bond scheme it should just make changes to it to disclose the donor and the recipient.
    • Another alternative is to do away with private fund collection altogether and replace it with public funding of political parties.
    • This is not likely to be more than Rs 10,000 crore every five years, if we were to go by the entire collection all the parties make together.
    • Another feasible option is to establish a National Election Fund to which all donations could be directed.
    • This would take care of the imaginary fear of political reprisal of the donors. 

    Consider the question “What were the changes introduced in various Acts for the introduction of the electoral bond scheme? What are the issues with these changes?”

    Conclusion

    We must not forget the finance minister’s opening statement in the 2017 Budget speech that “without transparency of political funding, free and fair elections are not possible”.

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  • Government Budgets

    A post-Covid fiscal framework for India

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    The article highlights the failure of FRBM Act to contain India’s rising debt and suggests an alternative framework.

    Issues with the FRBM Act

    • Economic disruption caused by the COVID has prompted calls for a relook atthe Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM).
    • The introduction of the FRBM in 2003 reflected the belief that setting strict limits on fiscal deficits, both for the centre and the states, was the solution.
    • But this framework didn’t work.
    • Apart from the initial period, when growth was booming, the deficit targets were largely honoured in the breach, leaving the primary balance [Revenue-Non-intrest expenditure] essentially unchanged (Figure 2, phase 2).

    Debt has increased to record levels

    • India’s general government debt has soared.
    • It is now close to 90 per cent of GDP — the highest independent India has ever seen.
    • The debt ratio will come down naturally as GDP normalises.
    • Even so, on current policies, it is likely to exceed 80 per cent for the foreseeable future.

    Would such a high level of debt be sustainable?

    • Briefly, sustainability depends on two key factors:
    • 1) The primary balance (PB), revenue less non-interest expenditures.
    • 2) The difference between the cost of borrowing and the nominal growth rate (r-g).[interest-growth differential]
    • Debt does not explode when the primary balance is greater than the interest-growth differential.
    • In India’s case, PB has been negative as the government has run primary deficits.
    • But this has been counterbalanced over the past decade by favourable differentials, as interest rates have been lower than growth.
    • Hence, the broadly stable debt ratio.
    • This equilibrium has now been upset by the sudden increase in debt.
    • If the interest-growth differential consequently turns unfavourable, as occurred during the previous period of high debt in the early 2000s (Figure 2, phase 1), then debt sustainability could only be preserved by shifting the primary balance into surplus.
    • And this would not be easy.

    Why shifting primary balance intro surplus is not easy

    • Primary deficit of the Centre and states combined is typically about 3 per cent of GDP. [say PB is -3% of GDP]
    • So, shifting the primary balance into a modest surplus [i.e. turning PB from -ve to +ve] would require an adjustment of 4 percentage points of GDP.
    • But non-interest expenditure is only roughly 20 per cent of GDP.
    • If tax increases were ruled out, then a sudden adjustment would require non-interest spending to be cut by no less than 20 per cent (4 divided by 20 times 100).[20% of 20 is 4]
    • Clearly, this would be politically impossible.
    • But this would render India susceptible to panic and possibly even crises.
    • The government needs to eliminate the tension, undertaking a pre-emptive consolidation to prevent the need for a sudden adjustment.

    Strategy based on 4 principles

    • The government should start by defining a clear objective, based not on arbitrary targets but on sound first principles: It should aim to ensure debt sustainability.
    • To this end, the government could adopt a strategy based on four principles.

    1) Abandon multiple fiscal criteria

    • The current FRBM sets targets for the overall deficit, the revenue deficit and debt.
    • Such multiple criteria impede the objective of ensuring sustainability since the targets can conflict with each other,
    • This creates confusion about which one to follow and thereby obfuscating accountability.

    2) Don’t get fixated on specific number

    • Around the world, countries are realising that deficit targets of 3 per cent of GDP and debt targets of 60 per cent of GDP lack proper economic grounding.
    • In India’s case, they take no account of the country’s own fiscal arithmetic or its strong political will to repay its debt.
    • Any specific target, no matter how well-grounded, encouraging governments to transfer spending off-budget such as with the “oil bonds” in the mid-2000s and subsidies more recently.

    3) Focus on one measure for guiding fiscal policy

    • In this regard, Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felmanwe propose targeting the primary balance.
    • This concept is new to India and will take time for the public to absorb and accept.
    • But it is inherently simple and has the eminent virtue that it is closely linked to meeting the overall objective of ensuring debt sustainability.

    4) Don’t set yearly target for the primary balance

    • The Centre should not set out yearly targets for the primary balance.
    • Instead, it should announce a plan to improve the primary balance gradually, by say half a percentage point of GDP per year on average.
    • Doing so will make it clear that it will accelerate consolidation when times are good, moderate it when times are less buoyant, and end it when a small surplus has been achieved.
    • This strategy is simple and easy to communicate; it is gradual and hence feasible.

    Consider the question “Despite the FRBM framework India’s debt level have touched a historic high. In light of this, examine the reasons for the failure of FRBM in controlling the debt level and suggest the way forward to make India’s debt level sustainable.”

    Conclusion

    COVID has upended India’s public finances. It is time to learn from past experience and adapt. Adopting a simple new fiscal framework based on the primary balance could be the way forward.

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  • Police Reforms – SC directives, NPC, other committees reports

    Why police reform recommendations have not been implemented

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Governance, Transparency & Accountability, Citizens Charters

    The article discusses the status of implementation of the Supreme Court directives in the Prakash Singh case by the States.

    Background of the Prakash Sing judgement

    • Over the years, the National Police Commission made several recommendations for reform of the police force.
    • But many of these were not implemented effectively.
    • In 1996, two retired Directors General of Police, Prakash Singh and N. K. Singh, filed a public interest litigation (PIL) to know whether those recommendations had ever been implemented.
    • A decade later in 2006 that the Court delivered its verdict in what is popularly referred to as the Prakash Singh case.
    • In Prakash Singh v. Union of India, the SC relied on the eight reports of the National Police Commission (1979-1981) appointed by the Union.

    Following are some of the recommendations and provision and status of their implementations.

    Selection and minimum tenure of DGP

    • The provision regarding the selection of and minimum tenure for the DGP post has had partial if any, effect.
    • Corruption, politicking, and patronage-seeking at the top is so endemic that this provision has lost its sting.
    • The Security Commission consisting of the Home Minister, the Leader of the Opposition, the Chief Secretary, the DGP and five independent members is likewise ineffective.
    • How can one have at the apex of the reform system for the police those who have a vested interest in not reforming the police?

    Separation between investigation and prosecution wings

    • The Commission’s recommendation that there ought to be a separation between the investigation and prosecution wings, as is the system in many developed countries, required immediate enforcement by the judiciary.
    • Doing so will help weed out the corruption in criminal investigations would get a second look by the prosecutorial wing.
    • But, for that, it would require that this department be placed not under the Home Minister, but under the Ministry of Law and Justice.
    • This was never done.

    The Police Complaint Authority

    • Obviously, for police criminality, one cannot expect the police or the home department to take action against themselves.
    • An independent body was necessary.
    • The commission recommended that there should be a PCA at the state level, headed by a retired judge of the SC or high court chosen out of a panel of names proposed by the chief justice of the state.
    • A similar structure was envisaged for the PCA at the district level.
    • In addition, the PCAs would be assisted by members selected by the state from panels prepared by the State Human Rights Commission, Lokayuktas and the State Public Service Commissions.
    • The most important part of this decision was that the recommendations of the PCA would be binding on the state.
    • However, affidavits filed in the SC showed that not a single state or UT has implemented the PCA provision.
    • States have not constituted panels and appointed officials as chairpersons in the place of retired judges.
    • In many states, the name Police Complaints Authority has been changed.
    • For example, in Tripura and Mizoram, it is called The Police Accountability Commission, diverting attention away from the fact that the commission is for entertaining complaints against police persons.

    Consider the question “What are the Supreme Court directives for police reform in the Prakash Singh vs. Union of India case? To what extent states have implemented these directives?” 

    Conclusion

    On police reform, the recommendations exist, the SC order has been made but the Union remains defiant. Perhaps, now, after the Maharashtra fiasco, the SC may decide that this case pending for eight years merits listing.

    Back2Basics: The SC directives in the Prakash Singh case

    1) Limit Political Control

    • Constitute a State Security Commission to:
    • Ensure that the state government does not exercise unwarranted influence or pressure on the police.
    • Lay down broad policy guidelines.
    • Evaluate the performance of the state police.

    2) Appointment based on merit

    • Ensure that the Director General of Police is appointed through a merit–based, transparent process, and secures a minimum tenure of 2 years.

    3) Fix minimum tenure

    • Ensure that other police officers on operational duties (including Superintendents of Police in charge of a district and Station House Officers in charge of a police station) are also provided a minimum tenure of 2 years.

    4) Separate police functions

    • Separate the functions of investigation and maintaining law and order.

    5) Set up fair and transparent systems

    • Set up a Police Establishment Board to decide and make recommendations on transfers, postings, promotions and other service-related matters of police officers of and below the rank of Deputy Superintendent of Police.

    6) Establish a Police Complaints Authority in each state

    • At the state level, there should be a Police Complaints Authority to look into public complaints against police officers of and above the rank of Superintendent of Police in cases of serious misconduct, including custodial death, grievous hurt or rape in police custody.

    7) Set up a selection commission

    • A National Security Commission needs to be set up at the union level to prepare a panel for selection and placement of chiefs of the Central Police Organizations with a minimum tenure of 2 years.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-United States

    Ukraine urges NATO to speed up membership

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Ukrainian President has urged NATO to speed up his country’s membership in the alliance, saying it was the only way to end fighting with pro-Russia separatists.

    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

    • The NATO, also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 European and North American countries.
    • The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949.
    • NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.
    • NATO’s Headquarters are located in Haren, Brussels, Belgium, while the headquarters of Allied Command Operations is near Mons, Belgium.

    Its members

    • Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30.
    • The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020.
    • NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members.
    • An additional 20 countries participate in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programs.

    Why NATO matters?

    • The combined military spending of all NATO members constitutes over 70% of the global nominal total.
    • Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.

    Also read:

    India & NATO

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  • Primary and Secondary Education – RTE, Education Policy, SEQI, RMSA, Committee Reports, etc.

    E9 Initiative for Digital Learning

    IOCR | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Nine countries including India, China and Brazil will explore the possibility of co-creating and scaling up digital learning to achieve the UN sustainable goal on quality education under the E9 initiative.

    The E9 is the first of its kind global collaboration for digital learning. Note the participating countries.

    E9 Initiative

    • It is the first of a three-phased process to co-create an initiative on digital learning and skills, targeting marginalised children and youth, especially girls.
    • The initiative aims to accelerate recovery and advance the Sustainable Development Goal 4 agenda by driving rapid change in education systems.
    • It is spearheaded by the UN, the E9 countries – Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria and Pakistan.
    • It will have the opportunity to benefit from this global initiative and accelerate progress on digital learning, according to UNESCO.

    Various functions

    • The initiative will discuss the co-creation of the Digital Learning initiative by the nine countries.
    • This Consultation will highlight progress, share lessons and explore opportunities for collaboration and scale-up to expand digital learning and skills.
    • In addition, a Marketplace segment, for public-private partnership will focus on promising local and global solutions and opportunities for digital learning to strengthen local ecosystems.

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