Type: Prelims Only

Why in the News

China has completed the first phase of construction on Antelope Reef in the Paracels archipelago, building a man-made island in the disputed South China Sea that analysts say will form part of its largest military base. The tension it exposes is that Chinese state media describe the feature as serving civilian needs such as weather forecasting and scientific research, while satellite imagery shows a wharf, a deep water harbour, a helicopter pad and the first excavation for a runway.

What has China built on Antelope Reef?

1. The feature: Antelope Reef is a reef in the Paracels archipelago in the northern South China Sea, now reclaimed into a man-made island.
2. The stage reached: The first phase of construction is complete, with barges and dredgers having left after at least six months of work in the waterway.
3. What is visible: Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show the reclaimed feature in outline for the first time, with building work started in the southeast corner including a helicopter pad.
4. The imagery source: The images showing the southeast corner construction were taken on 19 July by Vantor, a commercial provider of satellite images.

What is the Paracels archipelago?

1. What it is: The Paracels are a group of islands, reefs and banks in the northern South China Sea, distinct from the Spratlys archipelago further south.
2. Who holds them: China has occupied all the Paracels since 1974, when it forced off the navy of the former South Vietnam, and Vietnam claims the entire grouping as its own.

What is a naval bastion?

1. The concept: A bastion is a protected ocean area close to home ports within which a navy shields its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines from rival attack.
2. Why it matters here: Antelope could help support any Chinese bid to create bastions in the South China Sea, avoiding the need to send submarines out into the western Pacific where they are exposed.

What do the satellite images actually show?

1. Island dimensions: The reclaimed island is nearly 6 km long, with a straight line of coast longer than 3 km that some analysts see as a potential runway.
2. Runway work under way: A study published this week by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that the first excavation work for a new runway appeared to have already started.
3. Harbour infrastructure: A wharf stretching 680 m fronts a deep water harbour, with one satellite image showing a coast guard ship alongside.
4. Aviation infrastructure: Construction of buildings has started in the southeast corner of the island, including a helicopter pad.
5. The timeline of the work: An open source intelligence tracker first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January and reported spotting initial signs of work in December, with dredgers and barges departing after at least six months.
6. Official silence: China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and China has yet to acknowledge construction of a new military base.

Why is the northern South China Sea strategically different from the Spratlys?

1. The Taiwan linkage: The northern part of the South China Sea would be particularly important in a Taiwan conflict scenario, which places Antelope Reef in an ideal position.
2. Command priority raised: The importance of the South China Sea and of the Southern Theater Command has been elevated in the last year by the Central Military Commission, China’s top military panel, largely in relation to Taiwan.
3. Defensibility: Antelope could prove one of the Chinese military’s most important features in the South China Sea, larger than neighbouring Woody Island and easier to defend than the network of bases further south in the Spratlys.
4. Basing for strategic assets: Chinese military planners might prefer to keep weapons such as H-6 strategic bombers in the Paracels and closer to the Chinese mainland rather than on the Spratlys.
5. The existing Paracels network: Woody Island has served as the traditional administrative centre for China in the South China Sea and has at times housed jet fighters and surface-to-air missiles, while Triton Island, also in the Paracels, hosts extensive long-range surveillance devices.

What does the build-up mean for submarine operations and nuclear deterrence?

1. The bastion function: Antelope could support Chinese efforts to create protected ocean areas in the South China Sea to defend its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
2. The protection logic: Bastions close to home ports shield submarines from exposure to rival attack, removing the need to send them into the western Pacific.
3. The surveillance role: The island build-up is likely to house extensive surveillance equipment.
4. The effect on rivals: That surveillance could complicate submarine operations by the United States and Vietnam, both of which are active in the area.
5. The escalation implication: A feature that protects a second-strike capability changes the risk calculus of any confrontation, since attacking it touches nuclear deterrence rather than only conventional assets.

Why do China’s stated purpose and the observed build-out point in different directions?

1. The official account: Chinese state media have said Antelope will serve civilian needs such as weather forecasting and scientific research.
2. The scholarly framing: A Chinese South China Sea scholar described the construction work as “modest” in an opinion piece published in the official China Daily in June, arguing that rather than militarisation the purpose is peaceful and constructive, making the waters safer for everyone who depends on them.
3. The precedent for that framing: The same explanation mirrors China’s previous accounts of its build-up in the Spratlys, in waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.
4. The professional reading: Regional security analysts and military attaches say the feature is more likely to strengthen China’s military hold on the northern part of the vital waterway.
5. What the physical evidence supports: A 680 m wharf on a deep water harbour, a helicopter pad, a 3 km straight coastline and runway excavation are assets of military utility, not of weather forecasting.
6. The unresolved point: China has not acknowledged constructing a military base, so the gap between the stated purpose and the observed capability remains formally unclosed.

Which states contest these waters and on what basis?

1. Vietnam, the Paracels claim: Vietnam claims the entire Paracels grouping as its own, and China took full control of the group in 1974 by forcing off the navy of the former South Vietnam.
2. Vietnam, the specific protest: Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry has previously asserted its sovereignty claim to Antelope, saying in March that it resolutely opposes such actions and has made representations.
3. Vietnam, the counter build-up: Vietnam has moved in recent years to expand its own network of bases in the Spratlys archipelago.
4. The Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei: All four join Vietnam in claiming waters in the Spratlys where China has previously built up features.
5. The United States, the outside actor: The completion shows the South China Sea as an increasingly militarised arena of contest between China and the United States and its allies, as both jostle for advantages that could prove critical in any future conflict over Taiwan.

“[2022] Which one of the following statements best reflects the issue with Senkaku Islands, sometimes mentioned in the news?

(a) It is generally believed that they are artificial islands made by a country around South China Sea.

(b) China and Japan engage in maritime disputes over these islands in East China Sea.

(c) A permanent American military base has been set up there to help Taiwan to increase its defence capabilities.

(d) Though International Court of Justice declared them as no man’s land, some South-East Asian countries claim them.