Mentor’s Comment

Operation Sindoor may have concluded in the skies, but its echoes now reverberate across the sea. With both India and Pakistan recalibrating their naval postures, the maritime domain has emerged as the new theatre of strategic competition. This article explores how post-Sindoor developments from naval manoeuvres to capability upgrades are reshaping deterrence dynamics, inviting questions about escalation control, external involvement, and evolving doctrines in the Indian Ocean.

Introduction

While the standoff with Pakistan in May 2025 ended in the air domain, subsequent developments reveal a strategic shift to the maritime theatre. Both nations are now engaged in assertive naval signalling, deploying assets, testing missiles, and broadcasting intent. India’s Operation Sindoor, initially a demonstration of naval deterrence, has transitioned into a long-term posture recalibration with new vessels, strategic patrols, and sharper rhetoric. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s warning on October 2 about a “resounding response” to any Pakistani misadventure in the Sir Creek region, coupled with Pakistan’s launch of the Hangor-class submarine PNS Mangro and missile tests, underline a renewed contest at sea. This is significant — because for decades, the India-Pakistan rivalry was air and land-focused, not maritime. The sea, it seems, is now the new frontier of strategic signalling.

Why in the News

The post-Operation Sindoor phase marks the first time in decades that India and Pakistan are simultaneously signalling deterrence through sustained maritime manoeuvres, overlapping missile tests, and forward deployments. India has conducted its first joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea and commissioned the indigenously designed INS Nistar. Pakistan, meanwhile, has expanded naval activity from Karachi to Gwadar, launched new submarines and ballistic missiles, and tested the P282 ship-launched missile. This pattern is unprecedented not just in intensity but in its potential to redefine deterrence stability and crisis escalation in the Indian Ocean.

Why is the Maritime Theatre Gaining Strategic Centrality?

1. Shift from air to sea: After Operation Sindoor’s air engagement, both sides are redirecting deterrence signalling to the Arabian Sea, with forward deployments and missile tests.
2. Recalibration of naval posture: India’s Operation Sindoor emphasised a forward deterrent posture, a readiness to act first if provoked.
3. Symbolic rhetoric: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s statement evoking the 1965 war reinforced the seriousness of India’s deterrent message.

What Signals Are India and Pakistan Sending at Sea?

1. India’s assertive posture: Through INS Nistar, stealth frigates, and joint patrols, India projects both self-reliance and Indo-Pacific alignment.
2. Pakistan’s parallel moves: Launch of PNS Mangro, expansion of infrastructure in Sir Creek, and P282 missile tests signify deterrence-by-denial.
3. Operational friction: Overlapping NOTAMs and live-fire drills, sometimes just 60 nautical miles apart, indicate heightened tension and risk of miscalculation.

How Does the Naval Balance of Power Look Now?

1. India’s advantage but narrowing: Despite a numerical and geographical edge, India’s fleet faces ageing issues, raising modernization concerns.
2. Pakistan’s modernization: With Chinese-designed submarines and Babur-class corvettes from Türkiye, Pakistan’s Navy now wields improved radar, EW, and anti-surface weaponry.
3. Emerging parity: The Navy Chief’s acknowledgment of Pakistan’s “surprising growth” underscores a reality where India’s maritime superiority is no longer absolute.

What Makes Maritime Escalation More Risky?

1. Harder escalation control: Unlike air skirmishes, naval engagements are slow, continuous, and harder to de-escalate.
2. Psychological vulnerability: Memories of 1971 naval strikes amplify Pakistan’s sensitivity; even limited Indian action could trigger disproportionate reaction.
3. Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD): Pakistan’s Gwadar and Karachi hubs serve both operational and psychological roles in denying India unchallenged dominance.
4. Chinese factor: The PLAN’s presence at Gwadar increases risk of external entanglement in future crises.

Is There an External and Doctrinal Dimension?

1. China’s role: Chinese involvement in Gwadar and Karachi raises fears of dual-use support during crises.
2. Türkiye’s growing linkages: Supply and training cooperation with Pakistan diversify its defence dependencies, complicating India’s strategic calculations.
3. India’s Indo-Pacific strategy: Joint patrols and multilateral engagement hint at a twofold Indian approach, deterrence towards Pakistan and cooperation across the Indo-Pacific.
4. Doctrinal drift: Both nations risk anchoring strategy in outdated crisis models, despite new technologies like drones and hypersonic missiles changing escalation ladders.

Does the Emerging Maritime Pattern Help or Hurt Stability?

1. Persistent signalling: Continuous naval presence, unlike air sorties, lingers — shaping adversarial perception and intent.
2. Learning by observation: Regular drills, while risky, can create mutual operational awareness that paradoxically reduces fog of war.
3. Dual outcome: The same actions that raise tensions might also stabilize future crises through transparency of capability and doctrine.

Conclusion

Operation Sindoor may have ended, but its maritime aftermath is redrawing South Asia’s deterrence geography. The Arabian Sea has emerged as a stage for calibrated signalling, doctrinal experimentation, and external power play. India faces a dual challenge to assert deterrence without escalation and prepare for future crises where the sea, not the sky, sets the tone. The Indian Navy’s modernization drive, from indigenously designed vessels to Indo-Pacific collaborations, suggests a conscious shift one that seeks to combine strategic restraint with decisive readiness. The sea, long a silent frontier, is now a theatre of both opportunity and peril.

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