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Why in the news? 

Factors such as the lack of globally influential leaders, evolving alliances, economic challenges, and advancements in technology contribute to the current geopolitical landscape.

Factors behind the concerning current geopolitical landscape

Growing chaos, an absent leadership

• Decline of the rules-based international order: The traditional Western-led global order is perceived as dead, leading to increased geopolitical disarray.
• Rise of new alliance patterns: With the weakening of the West and the ascent of China, new alliances have emerged, but none possess enough strength to maintain global peace.
• Lack of influential leaders: Leaders like Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden are seen as lacking the ability to sustain peace globally, with many other Western leaders deemed inadequate for the task.
• Potential for conflict escalation: While shooting wars are limited to certain regions like Ukraine and Gaza, there’s concern about the absence of leaders capable of resolving conflicts peacefully.
• Stalemate in Ukraine: The situation in Ukraine remains deadlocked, with leaders unwilling to compromise, raising concerns about the possibility of the use of battlefield nuclear weapons.
• Escalating tensions in West Asia: Israel’s actions, described as those of a “wounded tiger,” are leading to increased casualties in Gaza, while Iran poses a direct threat to Israel, potentially leading to a broader conflict with dire implications.
• Potential leadership shift in militant Jihadism: There are indications that a resurgent Iran could take over the leadership of militant Jihadism against the West and other perceived “infidels,” further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

A new set of alliances

• Great power rivalry appears diminished: The rivalry between the U.S. and China is described as a “shadow play” with little significance beyond proxy conflicts.
• U.S. setbacks and diminished superpower status: The U.S. is perceived as grappling with hubris following setbacks since Afghanistan in 2020, which has diminished its status as a superpower.
• Europe’s reliance on NATO and limited influence: Europe’s reliance on NATO for protection from Russia has not translated into significant influence in conflicts like Ukraine, despite significant costs.
• Emerging China-Russia-Iran axis: The alliance between China, Russia, and Iran poses a challenge to U.S. and Western influence in West Asia, raising questions about their tactics in the region.

Economic challenges

• Geopolitics of oil: The China-Russia-Iran axis signals a significant shift in the politics of oil, which is likely to have far-reaching consequences for global stability.
• Diminished effectiveness of sanctions: Sanctions are seen as losing their impact in the face of changing geopolitical dynamics, potentially leading to a major economic slowdown.

Advancements in technology 

• Technology as a disruptor: National security efforts are increasingly focused on protecting vital technologies, with artificial intelligence emerging as a major disruptor in conventional warfare.
• Rise of smaller nations leveraging AI: Smaller nations are leveraging artificial intelligence to challenge the military dominance of larger powers like the U.S. and China, potentially leveling the playing field.
• Impact of ISR revolution in warfare: The military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) revolution, enabled by drones, aircraft, and space assets, is transforming the battlefield, posing new challenges for military strategies.
• Nuclear arms race and arms control fraying: Arms control agreements are deteriorating, leading to the development of new nuclear warheads and cruise missiles, raising concerns about a nuclear makeover and potential use of nuclear weapons.

Conclusion: The breakdown of the rules-based order, inadequate leadership, and the formation of volatile alliances contribute to geopolitical turmoil. Need of robust leadership and coherent strategiesto avoid the conflict escalation in the world.

Mains PYQ 

Q (UPSC IAS/2022) (a): Russia and Ukraine war has been going on for the last seven months. Different countries have taken independent stands and actions keeping in view their own national interests. We are all aware that war has its own impact on the different aspects of society, including human tragedy. What are those ethical issues that are crucial to be considered while launching the war and its continuation so far? lllustrate with justification the ethical issues involved in the given state of affairs.

(b): Write short notes on the following in 30 words each:

(i) Constitutional morality

(ii) Conflict of interest

(iii) Probity in public life

(iv) Challanges of digitalization

(v) Devotion to duty