From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Article 370
Mains level: Paper 2- China-Pakistans overlapping interests in Kashmir and diverging objectives.
While their interests overlap, Pakistan and China diverge when it comes to their objective in Kashmir. Both want to keep the pressure on India to avoid it from changing the status quo. Extending this line of argument, the author in this article suggest that India should separate the policy response to China from Pakistan, as they differ in their objectives.
Coordinated efforts to corner India?
Latest news on the Ladakh front suggests that Chinese and Indian forces have begun to disengage in select areas.
But this does not detract from the reality that in the past few weeks Beijing and Islamabad are making coordinated efforts to challenge India’s presence in the Kashmir-Ladakh region.
There is stepped-up activity on Pakistan’s part to infiltrate terrorists into the Valley.
China has undertaken provocative measures on the Ladakh front to assert control over disputed areas around the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Let’s see how Pakistan and China’s interests overlap
In Pakistan’s case the intensification in its terrorist activities is related in part to the dilution of Article 370.
Dilution of Article 370 helps India de-link Ladakh from the Kashmir problem.
For China, the division of Ladakh from Jammu and Kashmir allows India a freer hand in contesting China’s claims in the region.
Increasing road-building activity on India’s part close to the LAC augments this perception.
In addition, Ladakh borders China’s most restive provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet.
Ladakh is also contiguous to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Gilgit and Baltistan, where the Chinese have invested hugely under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s remark last year that India expects to have “physical jurisdiction over (POK) one day” has alarmed Beijing which sees any such Indian move as threatening the CPEC project.
These factors demonstrate the overlapping interests that Beijing and Islamabad have regarding India in this region.
The above factors explain why Pakistan and China would want India to be so preoccupied with taking defensive measures in Kashmir and Ladakh as to have little time and energy left to attempt to alter the status quo in POK or in Aksai Chin.
But there are major differences in Pakistani and Chinese objectives regarding India
These differences are related to their divergent perceptions of their disputes and their different force equations with India.
For China, Ladakh is primarily a territorial dispute with strategic ramifications.
China also believes it is superior to the Indian militarily and, therefore, can afford to push India around within limits as it has been attempting to do in the recent confrontation.
For Pakistan, its territorial claim on Kashmir is based on an immutable ideological conviction that it is the unfinished business of partition and as a Muslim-majority state is destined to become a part of Pakistan.
Islamabad also realises that it is the weaker power in conventional terms and therefore has to use unconventional means, primarily terrorist infiltration, to achieve its objective of changing the status quo in Kashmir.
China is a satiated power in Ladakh having occupied Aksai Chin and wants to keep up the pressure on New Delhi to prevent the latter from trying to change the situation on the ground.
Way forward-Pay attention to objectives while negotiating
China’s primary concern with regard to Kashmir is to prevent any Indian move from threatening the CPEC project.
It does not challenge the status quo in Kashmir.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is committed to changing the status quo in Kashmir at all cost.
It has been trying to do so since Partition not only through clandestine infiltration but also by engaging in conventional warfare.
Therefore, while it is possible to negotiate the territorial dispute with China on a give-and-take basis.
Doing the same is not possible in the case of Pakistan which considers Kashmir a zero-sum game.
India should, therefore, distinguish the different objectives on the part of Beijing and Islamabad and tailor its responses accordingly without conflating the two threats to its security.
Consider the question “Policy response of India in dealing with Pakistan and China should consider differences in their objectives in relation to Kashmir. And clubbing them together just because of their tactical overlap should be avoided. Elaborate.”
Conclusion
Lumping the twin threats posed by Pakistan and China together because of a tactical overlap between them makes it difficult to choose policy options rationally. So, the policy response must understand the difference in their objectives and avoid clubbing them together.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Nine dash line, Natuna Islands
Mains level: Paper 2- India-China relations
India’s growing closeness to the U.S. could be the reason for China’s aggression along India’s border. This is the explanation we often come across. But is it really the case?. This article probes the same question. Example of China’s dispute with Indonesia and Philippine help us analyse the U.S. angle to Indo-China border dispute. So, what is the conclusion?
An easy explanation to India-China border crisis
Why has China precipitated a fresh military crisis with India in eastern Ladakh?
Among the many explanations making the rounds in Delhi, there is always the easy and attractive one — it’s all about America.
Delhi has incurred Beijing’s wrath by moving closer to Washington, goes the argument.
India’s renewed enthusiasm for the US-led Quad, it is said, is encouraging China to teach a lesson to Delhi.
But does this explanation applies to the other countries as well? Look at Indonesia
No!
This theory does not hold up in relation to other countries having problems with China.
Let us turn to the South China Sea, where China is on a bold and ambitious drive to expand its control over the disputed waters.
Let us start with gathering tensions over the territorial dispute betweenBeijing and Jakarta.
Over the last year and more, Jakarta is coping with a Chinese challenge in its waters off its Natuna Islands.
The Natuna are nearly 1,500 km from the Chinese mainland.
The Natuna themselves lie outside Beijing’s nine-dash line that claims nearly 80 per cent of the South China Sea.
The dispute is over the exclusive economic zone that the islands confer on Indonesia.
China says it has historic rights to these waters and has been dispatching its fishing fleet into these waters.
Maybe China sees a problem with Jakarta-Washington relations: Let’s analyse
Jakarta did not support the US approach to the Indo-Pacific.
and went to great lengths to develop a concept of its own and get it endorsed by the ASEAN.
Indonesia is not a member of the much-maligned Quad.
Its foreign policy is wedded to non-alignment.
And as the host of the historic Bandung Conference in 1955, Indonesia is a founding member and champion of Non-aligned Movement.
Now, let’s consider second example: Philippines
The story of the Philippines — one of the oldest military allies of the US in Asia — nicely complements the non-aligned Indonesia’s troubles with China.
When he came to power in 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte decided to distance the Philippines from the US and embraced China.
He had a hope of finding a reasonable settlement to the substantive maritime territorial dispute with Beijing.
In February this year, Manila announced the decision to terminate the agreement that lets American troops operate in the Philippines.
But last week, the Philippines “suspended” the decision to terminate military cooperation with the US.
The reason: The PLA’s relentless military pressure on the South China Sea islands claimed by Manila and including them in a new Chinese administrative district.
So, what the two examples suggest?
Neither Jakarta that is scrupulously non-aligned nor Manila that was ready to break its alliance with the US has been spared from Beijing’s current muscular approach to China’s territorial disputes.
China has long-standing claims, right or wrong, on the territories of its neighbours.
The other is the dramatic shift in the regional power balance in favour of China.
Unlike in the past, China now has the military power to make good its claims and alter the territorial status quo, if only in bits and pieces.
This is what China is doing in the South China Sea.
And the situation may not be any different in Ladakh.
Consider the question “The shift in the regional power balance and not the growing Indo-U.S. relations explains the assertive nature of China in India-China border issues. Elaborate.”
Conclusion
The real challenge for Delhi in managing its expansive territorial dispute with Beijing, then, is to redress the growing power imbalance with China. The rest is detail.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Local bodies.
Mains level: Paper 2- Issues with fiscal independence of the local bodies.
This article makes some suggestions to improve local finance and argues that the extant fiscal illusion is a great deterrent to mobilisation.
Advantageous position in handling disasters
In terms of information, monitoring and immediate action, local governments are at an advantage, and eminently, to meet any disaster such as COVID-19.
While increasing the borrowing limits of the state form 3.5% of GDP to 5%, there was a recognition that local governments should be fiscally empowered immediately.
This is a valid signal for the future of local governance.
4 challenges posed by Covid and addressing them collectively
COVID-19 has raised home four major challenges:1) economic, 2) health, 3) welfare/livelihood 4) resource mobilisation.
These challenges have to be addressed by all tiers of government in the federal polity, jointly and severally.
Local government empowerment: 5 critical areas
1)Own revenue is the critical lever of local government empowerment.
But the several lacunae that continue to bedevil local governance have to be simultaneously addressed.
2) The new normal demands a paradigm shift in the delivery of health care at the cutting edge level.
3) The parallel bodies that have come up after the 73rd/74th Constitutional Amendments have considerably distorted the functions-fund flow matrix at the lower level of governance.
4) There is yet no clarity in the assignment of functions, functionaries and financial responsibilities to local governments.
Functional mapping and responsibilities continue to be ambiguous in many States.
Instructively, Kerala attempted even responsibility mapping besides activity mapping.
5) The critical role of local governments will have to be recognised by all.
Let’s look into resource mobilisation issue: 3 Heads
A few suggestions for resource mobilisation are given under three heads: 1) local finance, 2) Members of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme-MPLADs, 3) the Fifteenth Finance Commission (FFC).
1. Local finance
Property tax collection with appropriate exemptions should be a compulsory levy and preferably must cover land.
The Economic Survey 2017-18 points out that urban local governments, or ULGs, generate about 44% of their revenue from own sources as against only 5% by rural local governments, or RLGs.
Per capita own revenue collected by ULGs is about 3% of urban per capita income while the corresponding figure is only 0.1% for RLGs.
There is a yawning gap between tax potential and actual collection, resulting in colossal underperformance.
When they are not taxed, people remain indifferent.
LGs, States and people seem to labour under a fiscal illusion.
In States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand, local tax collection at the panchayat level is next to nil.
Property tax forms the major source of local revenue throughout the world.
All States should take steps to enhance and rationalise property tax regime.
A recent study by Professor O.P. Mathur shows that the share of property tax in GDP has been declining since 2002-03.
The share of property tax in India in 2017-18 is only 0.14% of GDP as against 2.1% in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
If property tax covers land, that will hugely enhance the yield from this source even without any increase in rates.
Other 2 options for raising finances
1) Land monetisation and betterment levy may be tried in the context of COVID-19 in India. To be sure, land values have to be unbundled for socially relevant purposes.
2) Municipalities and even suburban panchayats can issue a corona containment bond for a period of say 10 years.
We are appealing to the patriotic sentiments of non-resident Indians and rich citizens.
Needless to say, credit rating is not to be the weighing consideration.
That the Resurgent India Bond of 1998 could mobilise over $4 billion in a few days encourages us to try this option.
2) MPLADS
The suspension of MPLADS by the Union government for two years is a welcome measure. The annual budget was around ₹4,000 crore.
The Union government has appropriated the entire allocation along with the huge non-lapseable arrears.
MPLADs, which was avowedly earmarked for local area development, must be assigned to local governments, preferably to panchayats on the basis of well-defined criteria.
3) Fifteenth finance commission-FFC
A special COVID-19 containment grant to the LGs by the FFC to be distributed on the basis of SFC-laid criteria is the need of the hour.
The commission may do well to consider this.
The local government grant of ₹90,000 crore for 2020-2021 by the FFC is only 3% higher than that recommended by the Fourteenth Finance Commission.
Building health infrastructure and disease control strategies at the local level find no mention in the five tranches of the packages announced by the Union Finance Minister.
Suggestions related to grants
The ratio of basic (i.e. with no conditions) to tied (with condition)grant is fixed at 50:50 by the commission.
In the context of the crisis under way, all grants must be untied for freely evolving proper COVID-19 containment strategies locally.
The 13th Finance Commission’s recommendation to tie local grants to the union divisible pool of taxes to ensure a buoyant and predictable source of revenue to LGs (accepted by the then Union government) must be restored by the commission.
Consider the question “The stable source of revenue for the local government bodies whether from their own sources or in the form of grants should lie at the heart of efforts to empower them. Comment.”
Conclusion
COVID-19 has woken us up to the reality that local governments must be equipped and empowered. Relevant action is the critical need.
B2BASICS:
73rd and 74th Amendment Acts, 1993
It’s been 25 years since decentralized democratic governance was introduced in India by the 73rd and 74th Constitution Amendments, which came into force on April 24 and June 1, 1993, respectively.
The 73rd Amendment to the Constitution (Part IX) has given constitutional status to the Panchayats, and has provided it with a substantial framework. It envisions the Panchayats as the institutions of local self-governance and also the universal platforms for planning and implementing programmes for economic
development and social justice.
The creation of lakhs of “self-governing” village panchayats and gram sabhas, with over three million elected representatives mandated to manage local development, was a unique democratic experiment.
Article 243A gives constitutional recognition to the Gram Sabha as a body consisting of persons registered in the electoral rolls relating to a village comprised within the area of the Panchayat at the village level.
The 74th Amendment Act provided for the constitution (Part IXA) of three types of municipalities in urban areas depending upon the size and area.
The Constitution provides for a complete institutional mechanism including reservation for women and formation of State Finance Commissions (SFCs) for local democracy.
Rating agencies influence the decisions of investors. So, when any economy is downgraded by them, it’s certainly a cause for concern. But to restart the economic engines, governments need to spend more by borrowing. This article suggests the way to achieve both: avoiding downgrade and increasing spending. How? Read to know…
To worry or not to worry: Issue of downgrading by rating agencies
Some economists urged the government amid covid pandemic to go out and spend without worrying about the increase in public debt.
They said the rating agencies would understand that these are unusual times.
If they did not and chose to downgrade India, we should not worry too much about it.
Well, the decision of the rating agency, Moody’s, to downgrade India from Baa2 to Baa3 should come as a rude awakening.
The present rating is just one notch above the ‘junk’ category.
Moody’s has also retained its negative outlook on India, which suggests that a further downgrade is more likely than an upgrade.
The downgrade, Moody’s says, has not factored in the economic impact of the pandemic.
Any further deterioration in the fundamentals from now on will push India into ‘junk’ status.
Here is why we should be worried about a downgrade
Whatever the failings of the agencies, in the imperfect world of global finance that we live in, their ratings do carry weight.
Institutional investors are largely bound by covenants that require them to exit an economy that falls below investment grade.
If India is downgraded to junk status, foreign institutional investors, or FIIs, will flee in droves.
The stock and bond markets will take a severe beating.
The rupee will depreciate hugely and the central bank will have its hands full trying to stave off a foreign exchange crisis.
That is the last thing we need at the moment.
So, what is the way out? Try for an upgrade!
We have to put our best foot forward now to prevent a downgrade and bring about an upgrade instead.
To do so, we need to note the key concerns that Moody’s has cited in effecting the present downgrade to our rating: slowing growth, rising debt and financial sector weakness.
These concerns are legitimate.
Bleak prospects
Many economists as also the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expect India’s economy to shrink in FY 2020-21.
The combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and the States is expected to be in the region of 12% of GDP.
Moody’s expects India’s public debt to GDP ratio to rise from 72% of GDP to 84% of GDP in 2020-21.
The banking sector had non-performing assets of over 9% of advances before the onset of the pandemic.
Weak growth and rising bankruptcies will increase stress in the banking sector.
Fiscal deficit and growth: two concerns of rating agencies
The government’s focus thus far has been on reassuring the financial markets that the fisc will not spin out of control.
It has kept the ‘discretionary fiscal stimulus’ down to 1% of GDP.
That 1% figure is most modest in relation to that of many other economies, especially developed economies.
‘Discretionary fiscal stimulus’ refers to an increase in the fiscal deficit caused by government policy as distinct from an increase caused by slowinggrowth, the latter being called an ‘automatic stabiliser’.
Keeping the fiscal deficit on a leash addresses the concerns of rating agencies about a rise in the public debt to GDP ratio.
But it does little to address their concerns about growth.
The debt to GDP ratio will worsen and financial stress will accentuate if growth fails to recover quickly enough.
The government’s stimulus package relies heavily on the banking system to shore up growth.
But there is only so much banks can do.
More government spending is required, especially for infrastructure.
So, government need to increase fiscal stimulus without increasing public debt
We need to increase the discretionary fiscal stimulus without increasing public debt.
The answer is monetisation of the deficit, that is, the central bank providing funds to the government.
These fears are based on misconceptions about monetisation of the deficit and its effects.
What monetisation of debt mean?
A common misconception is that it involves ‘printing notes’.
But that is not how central banks fund the government.
The central bank typically funds the government by buying Treasury bills.
As proponents of what is called Modern Monetary Theory point out, even that is not required.
The central bank could simply credit the Treasury’s account with itself through an electronic accounting entry.
What is base money? When the government spends the extra funds that have come into its account, there is an increase in ‘Base money’, that is, currency plus banks’ reserves.
So, yes, monetisation results in an expansion of money supply.
But that is not the same as printing currency notes.
But expansion of money supply leads to inflation, what about that?
It could be that the expansion is inflationary.
This objection has little substance in a situation where aggregate demand has fallen sharply and there is an increase in unemployment.
In such a situation, monetisation of the deficit is more likely to raise actual output closer to potential output without any great increase in inflation.
No difference in borrowing from banks or RBI directly:MMT
Exponents of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) make a more striking point.
They say there is nothing particularly virtuous about the government incurring expenditure and issuing bonds to banks instead of issuing these to the central bank.
The expansion in base money and hence in money supply is the same in either route.
The preference for private debt is voluntary.
MMT exponents say it has more to do with an ideological preference for limiting government expenditure.
Central banks worldwide have resorted to massive purchases of government bonds in the secondary market in recent years, with the RBI joining the party of late.
These are carried out under Open Market Operations (OMO).
The impact on money supply is the same whether the central bank acquires government bonds in the secondary market or directly from the Treasury.
So why the shrill clamour against monetisation of public debt?
OMO is said to be a lesser evil than direct monetisation because the former is a ‘temporary’ expansion in the central bank’s balance sheet whereas the latter is ‘permanent’.
But we know that even so-called ‘temporary’ expansions can last for long periods with identical effects on inflation.
What matters, therefore, is not whether the central bank’s balance sheet expansion is temporary or permanent but how it impacts inflation.
As long as inflation is kept under control, it is hard to argue against monetisation of the deficit in a situation such as the one we are now confronted with.
Way forward
We now have a way out of the constraints imposed by sovereign ratings.
The government must confine itself to the additional borrowing of ₹4.2 trillion which it has announced.
Further discretionary fiscal stimulus must happen through monetisation of the deficit.
That way, the debt to GDP ratio can be kept under control while also addressing concerns about growth.
Consider the question “Examine the issues involved in the direct monetisation of the debt by the government to fund the spending in the wake of covid pandemic.”
Conclusion
The rating agencies should be worrying not about monetisation per se but about its impact on inflation. As long as inflation is kept under control, they should not have concerns — and we need not lose sleep over a possible downgrade.
Back2Basics: Automatic stabiliser
Automatic stabilisers refer to how fiscal instruments will influence the rate of growth and help counter swings in the economic cycle.
Automatic stabilisers will influence the size of government borrowing.
Discretionary fiscal policy
Keynesian Perspective: Keynes noted that in a recession, confidence falls and the private sector cut back on spending and investment.
Therefore, we see a rise in private savings and a fall in aggregate demand. This can worsen the recession.
This is why Keynes advocated government borrowing – to make use of these surplus savings.
Keynes argued that automatic stabilisers may not be enough, and the government should specifically find public sector projects to inject money into the circular flow.
India’s foreign exchange reserves are rising and are slated to hit the $500 billion mark soon. In the last month, it jumped by $12.4 billion to an all-time high of $493.48 billion.
Aspirants must make a note here:
1.Authority managing FOREX in India
2.Components of FOREX
3.IMF’s SDRs
4.Emergency use of FOREX
Rising above the 1991 crisis
Unlike in 1991, when India had to pledge its gold reserves to stave off a major financial crisis, the country can now depend on its soaring Forex reserves to tackle any crisis on the economic front.
The level of Forex reserves has steadily increased by 8,400 per cent from $5.8 billion as of March 1991 to the current level.
What are Forex Reserves?
Reserve Bank of India Act and the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 set the legal provisions for governing the foreign exchange reserves.
RBI accumulates foreign currency reserves by purchasing from authorized dealers in open market operations.
The Forex reserves of India consist of below four categories:
Foreign Currency Assets
Gold
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)
Reserve Tranche Position
The IMF says official Forex reserves are held in support of a range of objectives like supporting and maintaining confidence in the policies for monetary and exchange rate management including the capacity to intervene in support of the national or union currency.
It will also limit external vulnerability by maintaining foreign currency liquidity to absorb shocks during times of crisis or when access to borrowing is curtailed.
Why is Forex rising despite the slowdown in the economy?
1.Rise in FPIand FII
The major reason for the rise in forex reserves is the rise in investment in foreign portfolio investors in Indian stocks and foreign direct investments (FDIs).
Foreign investors had acquired stakes in several Indian companies in the last two months.
Forex inflows are set to rise further and cross the $500 billion as Reliance Industries subsidiary, Jio Platforms, has witnessed a series of foreign investments totalling Rs 97,000 crore.
2.Crash in oil prices
On the other hand, the fall in crude oil prices has brought down the oil import bill, saving the precious foreign exchange.
3.Fall in overseas remittances and foreign travel
Similarly, overseas remittances and foreign travels have fallen steeply – down 61 per cent in April from $12.87 billion.
What’s the significance of rising forex reserves?
The rising forex reserves give a lot of comfort to the government and the RBI in managing India’s external and internal financial issues at a time when the economic growth is set to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2020-21.
Provides Cushion: It’s a big cushion in the event of any crisis on the economic front and enough to cover the import bill of the country for a year.
Appreciation of Rupees: The rising reserves have also helped the rupee to strengthen against the dollar.
The forex reserves to GDP ratio is around 15 per cent.
Provides confidence to Market: Reserves will provide a level of confidence to markets that a country can meet its external obligations, demonstrate the backing of domestic currency by external assets, assist the government in meeting its US dollar needs and external debt obligations and maintain a reserve for national disasters or emergencies.
What does the RBI do with the forex reserves?
The RBI functions as the custodian and manager of forex reserves and operates within the overall policy framework agreed upon with the government.
The RBI allocates the dollars for specific purposes. For example, under the Liberalized Remittances Scheme, individuals are allowed to remit up to $250,000 every year.
The RBI uses its forex kitty for the orderly movement of the rupee. It sells the dollar when the rupee weakens and buys the dollar when the rupee strengthens.
Where are India’s forex reserves kept?
The RBI Act, 1934 provides the overarching legal framework for the deployment of reserves in different foreign currency assets and gold within the broad parameters of currencies, instruments, issuers and counterparties.
As much as 64 per cent of the foreign currency reserves is held in the securities like Treasury bills of foreign countries, mainly the US.
28 per cent is deposited in foreign central banks and 7.4 per cent is also deposited in commercial banks abroad.
In value terms, the share of gold in the total foreign exchange reserves increased from about 6.14 per cent as at end-September 2019 to about 6.40 per cent as at end-March 2020.
Is there a cost involved in maintaining forex reserves?
The return on India’s forex reserves kept in foreign central banks and commercial banks is negligible.
While the RBI has not divulged the return on forex investment, analysts say it could be around one per cent, or even less than that, considering the fall in interest rates in the US and Eurozone.
There was a demand from some quarters that forex reserves should be used for infrastructure development in the country. However, the RBI had opposed the plan.
Several analysts argue for giving greater weightage to return on forex assets than on liquidity thus reducing net costs if any, of holding reserves.
Another issue is the high ratio of volatile flows (portfolio flows and short-term debt) to reserves which are around 80 per cent. This money can exit at a fast pace.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Location of Garsain
Mains level: Issues over multiple capitals
The Uttarakhand Governor has given her assent for declaration of Bhararisen (Gairsain) in Chamoli district as its summer capital.
Practice question:
Q. Discuss the feasibility of having multiple administrative capitals for some states in India.
Gairsain
Gairsain is situated at the eastern edge of the vast Dudhatoli mountain range, located almost at the centre of the state, at a distance of approximately 250 kilometres from Dehradun.
It is easily accessible from both the Garhwal and the Kumaon divisions, and in a way, acts as the bridge between the two regions.
The state Assembly is located in Dehradun, but sessions are held in Gairsain as well.
Why Gairsain is held as summer capital?
Gairsain was best suited to be the capital of the mountainous state as it was a hilly region falling on the border of Kumaon and Garhwal regions.
Even when Uttarakhand was carved out as a separate state from UP on November 9, 2000, statehood activists had contended that Gairsain was best suited to be the capital.
But it was Dehradun in the plains that were named the temporary capital. The issue is largely political.
What are the other examples of multiple capital cities?
Several countries in the world have implemented the concept.
In Sri Lanka, Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte is the official capital and seat of the national legislature, while Colombo is the de facto seat of the national executive and judicial bodies.
Malaysia has its official and royal capital and seat of the national legislature at Kuala Lumpur, and Putrajaya is the administrative centre and seat of the national judiciary.
Among Indian states, Maharashtra has two capitals– Mumbai and Nagpur (which holds the winter session of the state assembly).
Himachal Pradesh has capitals at Shimla and Dharamshala (winter).
The former state of Jammu & Kashmir had Srinagar and Jammu (winter) as capitals (remember Darbar Move).
Predicting recovery graphs, economists have added cool shapes for our information.
The types of graphs mentioned here are the possible indicators of macro-economic recovery. They are the potential hotspots for a prelim question. UPSC can puzzle you with the type of graphs and associated macroeconomic situation.
Try to mirror! How would our economy grow?!
Types of graphs
The shape of economic recovery is determined by both the speed and direction of GDP prints. This depends on multiple factors including fiscal and monetary measures, consumer incomes and sentiment.
The best scenario is a V-shaped recovery in which the economy quickly recoups lost ground and gets back to the normal growth trend-line.
A pipe graph is a V graph with a longer tail — the recovery isn’t one that happens quickly over one quarter but over two-three quarters.
The pipe is different from the Swoosh because in the latter the economy bears the pain for longer.
A Z–shaped recovery is when a post-lockdown spending surge is so fierce that growth is lifted above the trendline and then after a party settles down to trend. The Z-shaped recovery is the most-optimistic scenario in which the economy quickly rises like a phoenix after a crash.
A U-shaped recovery — resembling a bathtub — is a scenario in which the economy, after falling, struggles and muddles around a low growth rate for some time, before rising gradually to usual levels.
A W-shaped recovery is a dangerous creature — growth falls and rises, but falls again before recovering yet again, thus forming a W-like chart. The double-dip depicted by a W-shaped recovery is what some economists are predicting if the second wave of COVID comes along and the initial rebound flatters to deceive.
The L-shaped recovery is the worst-case scenario, in which growth after falling, stagnates at low levels and does not recover for a long, long time.
Then, there is the J-shaped recovery, a somewhat unrealistic scenario, in which growth rises sharply from the lows much higher than the trend-line and stays there.
There is also the Swoosh shaped recovery, similar to the Nike logo — in between the V-shape and the U-shape. Here, after falling, growth starts recovering quickly but then, slowed down by obstacles, moves gradually back to the trend-line.
Finally, say hello to the Inverted square root shaped In this, there could a rebound from the bottom, the growth slows and settles a step-down.
Why is it important for India?
The Indian economy was slowing down even before COVID hit, and the trouble has now been amplified manifold because of the lockdowns.
Experts predict a fall of up to 5 per cent in the GDP in FY-21.
This is clearly a crisis situation, and our getting out of the hole will depend a great deal on the shape of the economic recovery that will hopefully follow.
A Z- or at least V-shaped recovery would be the most preferable. If not, we should at least have a U-shaped recovery or a Swoosh to get back on our feet in a couple of years.
A W-shape will bring in much pain before the eventual gain, while an L-shape or the Inverted-square root will make a wreck of the growth train.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: MARPOL
Mains level: Maritime pollution control and its international mechanism
The Ministry of Shipping has informed about the steps taken for prevention and control of pollution arising from ships in the sea and in the inland waterways under the MARPOL Convention.
Aspirants must note the following things:
1. If the convention is a subsidiary to the United Nations/IMO,
2. Whether it is Legally binding?
3. If India is a signatory or not …..
MARPOL Convention
MARPOL is the main international convention aimed at the prevention of pollution from ships caused by operational or accidental causes.
The Protocol of 1978 was adopted in response to a number of tanker accidents in 1976–1977.
It is one of the most important international marine environmental conventions.
It was developed by the IMO with an objective to minimize pollution of the oceans and seas, including dumping, oil and air pollution.
The Convention includes regulations aimed at preventing and minimizing pollution from ships – both accidental pollution and that from routine operations – and currently includes six technical Annexes.
India is a signatory to MARPOL.
It has six annexes (I to VI) and it deals with prevention of (1) Pollution from ships by Oil, (2) Noxious liquid substances, (3) Dangerous goods in packaged form, (4) Sewage, (5) Garbage and (6) Air pollution from ships respectively.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: BS norms
Mains level: BS norms
The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) has issued an order mandating a coloured strip to identify four-wheeled BSVI vehicle.
Note important PM levels allowed under BS VI norms. Note how it is different from the earlier BS IV norm.
Details of the colour band
MoRTH has mandated a strip of green colour of 1 cm width on top of the existing sticker carrying details of registration for BS-VI.
Vehicles of any fuel type will carry the green strip irrespective of their original stickers i.e. for petrol or CNG which have a light blue colour sticker and a diesel vehicle which is of orange colour.
These stickers will now have a green strip of 1 cm on top for BS-VI, as mandated.
Back2Basics: Bharat Stage Norms
Standard
Reference
Date of Implementation
Bharat Stage II
Euro 2
1 April 2005
Bharat Stage III
Euro 3
1 April 2010
Bharat Stage IV
Euro 4
1 April 2017
Bharat Stage VI
Euro 6
April 2020 with a mandate (proposed)
Minutes of BS-VI
Carmakers would have to put three pieces of equipment — a DPF (diesel particulate filter), an SCR (selective catalytic reduction) system, and an LNT (Lean NOx trap) — to meet stringent BS-VI norms, all at the same time.
This is vital to curb both PM (particulate matter) and NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions as mandated under the BS-VI norms.
How is BS-VI Different from BS-IV?
The major difference between the existing BS-IV and forthcoming BS-VI norms is the presence of sulphur in the fuel.
While the BS-IV fuels contain 50 parts per million (ppm) sulphur, the BS-VI grade fuel only has 10 ppm sulphur content.
Also, the harmful NOx (nitrogen oxides) from diesel cars can be brought down by nearly 70%.
In the petrol cars, they can be reduced by 25%.
However, when we talk about air pollution, particulate matter like PM 2.5 and PM 10 are the most harmful components and the BS-VI will bring the cancer-causing particulate matter in diesel cars by a phenomenal 80%.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: ARPIT
Mains level: Not Much
The Indian Air Force has developed and inducted an Airborne Rescue Pod for Isolated Transportation (ARPIT).
This rescue pod ARPIT can be used as an example of self-sufficiency under the ambitious Atmanirbhar Abhiyan.
What is ARPIT?
ARPIT is a lightweight isolation system made from aviation certified material.
It has a transparent and durable cast Perspex for enhanced patient visibility which is larger, higher and wider than the existing models.
The isolation system caters for the suitable number of air exchanges, integration of medical monitoring instruments, and ventilation to an intubated patient.
In addition, it generates high constant negative pressure in the isolation chamber for prevention of infection risk to aircrew, ground crew and health care workers involved in air transportation.
It utilizes High-Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) H-13 class filters and supports invasive ventilation using Transport Ventilator.
It’s utility
This pod will be utilized for the evacuation of critical patients with infectious diseases including COVID-19 from high altitude area, isolated and remote places.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Treaty with Mauritius
Mains level: Paper 3- Tiger Global case
Through this story, we will explore how investment fund companies exploit the tax agreements between the two countries. This story involves the famous case of investment by Walmart in Flipkart. So, let’s see what was involved in the case and what argument was made by the investment fund involved in the case.
Tax avoidance
Tax avoidance is the use of legal methods to minimize the amount of income tax owed by an individual or a business. This is generally accomplished by claiming as many deductions and credits as is allowable. It may also be achieved by prioritizing investments that have tax advantages, such as buying municipal bonds.
First, let’s understand why Mauritius is favourite among investors?
Mauritius and India do have a tax treaty to start with.
Suppose an investment company based out of (why not based in?) Mauritius made a lot of money selling shares of an Indian company.
Now, Indian authorities won’t tax the gains you made via the transaction.
Instead, you’ll be taxed in Mauritius.
But since Mauritius does not tax capital gains, you get away without paying capital gain tax.
So you got the answer to why Mauritius.
Obviously, foreign corporations lapped up this opportunity until 2016 — when the government finally decided to plug the gaps.
They made amendments to the treaty.
The story of Tiger Global’s investment into Flipkart
Tiger Global was one of the earliest investors in Flipkart.
They held 22% of the company until 2018 when they sold about 17% to Walmart’s Luxembourg entity FIT Holdings.
This transaction was valued at over INR 14,500 Cr.
But Tiger Global had made its investments through funds based out of Mauritius.
Since Tiger Global had made most of its investments during the first half of the decade (obviously before 2016).
So the amendment to the treaty wasn’t really applicable to them.
So when they made all that money selling their stake in Flipkart, they figured they wouldn’t have to pay any tax.
And at first sight, this argument seems legit.
Let’s dig deeper into the case by going through 3 arguments
The funds were operating out of Mauritius.
The directors were discharging their duties in Mauritius.
All in all, everything was firmly placed in Mauritius.
But if you peel back the layers, you’ll see that these funds are ultimately owned by Tiger Global Management LLC, USA — albeit through a maze of holding companies.
So, the tax authorities argued that Tiger Global had in fact set up the Mauritius based entity for the sole purpose of avoiding taxes.
And therefore contested that they shouldn’t be exempt from paying tax on gains they made through the Flipkart Transaction.
Tiger Global, miffed with the taxmen, took the matter to a quasi-judicial body — The Authority for Advance Rulings (AAR).
And the case begins.
Let’s look into three arguments.
1. Focus on transaction, not on the entity that involved in the transaction
Tiger Global investment fund counsel had the following argument to make:
“It must be proven that the transaction [the final sale of shares] itself was designed to avoid taxes.”
And proving that the structure of the entity undertaking the transaction was designed for the avoidance of income-tax should not be necessary here.
So, the Revenue (the Income Tax Department) had failed to discharge its burden of proof. But AAR didn’t agree with this argument.
2. So, what’s AAR’s argument?
AAR said that you don’t just compute taxes by looking at the final transaction.
Instead, you look at the transaction as a whole —When were the shares bought? What was the purchase price? What happened in between? Who’s the primary executioner? What’s the appreciation in value? You look at everything.
More importantly, the “head and brains” executing the transaction resided elsewhere.
Tax authorities had shown rather conclusively that a certain Mr. Charles P. Coleman (operating out of a U.S based entity) was the beneficial owner of the fund.
And that “he” was primarily responsible for most management decisions.
So the AAR hit back with the following observation:
In our opinion, it is not the holding structure only that would be relevant. The holding structure coupled with prima facie management and control of the holding structure, including the management and control of the applicants, would be relevant factors for determining the design for avoidance of tax. The applicant companies were only a “see-through entity” to avail the benefits of India-Mauritius DTAA [Double Taxation Avoidance Agreements]
But wait… what about the past judgements?
Tiger Global had another weapon in its arsenal — Past judgements on the matter.
Specifically, a particular ruling in the case of Moody’s Analytics Inc.
AAR in this case conceded that capital gains accruing to a Mauritius based entity from the transfer of shares of an Indian company shouldn’t ideally be taxed.
3. Flipkart is a Singaporean company. So, pay the taxes!
The AAR said that “In this particular case, gains were made by transferring shares of a Singaporean company. Not an Indian company.”
That’s right. Flipkart is based out of Singapore.
Flipkart Singapore is the strategic shareholder of Flipkart India.
Flipkart India is the entity that owns most of the capital assets.
The shares that were sold to Walmart — that’s Flipkart Singapore, not Flipkart India.
But the India-Mauritius tax treaty agreement is only applicable to the transfer of shares of Indian companies.
Consider the question “Examine the basis used by the Authority for Advance Rulings (AAR) that led it to rule in favour of tax authorities.”
Conclusion
AAR concluded that there was no doubt that Tiger Global had set up the Mauritius based entity to avoid paying taxes and therefore should be liable to pay what the Income Tax authorities deem fit.
Back2Basics: Vodafone tax
Can India tax the gains made by selling the shares of Singaporean company?
According to Section 9(1)(i), (popularly known as the Vodafone tax), any income accruing or arising, whether directly or indirectly (through multiple layers), inter-alia, through the transfer of a capital asset situated in India, shall be deemed to accrue or arise in India.”
So Indian tax laws are pretty clear about where the gains ought to be taxed.
But the India-Mauritius treaty doesn’t say anything about this matter.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Drug patents
Mains level: Paper 3- Drug pricing issue
Pricing of the drugs in a contentious issue across the world. In some countries like the U.S. price of the drug at 100000% of the production cost is not atypical. In India, prices are much lower. This article suggests the novel of Health Impact Fund which could strike the balance between affordability and R&D.
Medicines: Humanities greatest achievements
They have helped attain dramatic improvements in health and longevity as well as huge cost savings through reduced sick days and hospitalizations.
The global market for pharmaceuticals is currently worth ₹110 lakh crore annually, 1.7% of the gross world product (IPFPA 2017, 5).
Roughly 55% of this global pharmaceutical spending, ₹60 lakh crore, is for brand-name products, which are typically under patent.
Issue of high drug prices
Commercial pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) efforts are encouraged and rewarded through the earnings that innovators derive from sales of their branded products.
These earnings largely depend on the 20-year product patents they are entitled to obtain in WTO member states.
Such patents give them a temporary monopoly, enabling them to sell their new products without competition at a price far above manufacture and distribution costs, while still maintaining a substantial sales volume.
In the United States, thousandfold (100000%) markups over production costs are not atypical.
In India, the profit-maximising monopoly price of a new medicine is much lower, but similarly unaffordable for most citizens.
Covering large R&D costs: before we think about a solution
To be sure, before such huge markups can yield any profits, commercial pharmaceutical innovators must first cover their large R&D costs.
Currently, this cost is ₹14 lakh crore a year (Mikulic 2020).
This includes the cost of clinical trials needed to demonstrate safety and efficacy, the cost of capital tied up during the long development process, and the cost of any research efforts that failed somewhere along the way.
Three concerns with R&D
1. Neglect of the diseases suffered by the poor
Innovators motivated by the prospect of large markups tend to neglect diseases suffered mainly by poor people, who cannot afford expensive medicines.
The 20 WHO-listed neglected tropical diseases together afflict over one billion people (WHO n.d.) but attract only 0.35% of the pharmaceutical industry’s R&D (IFPMA 2017, 15 and 21).
Merely 0.12% of this R&D spending is devoted to tuberculosis and malaria, which kill 1.7 million people each year.
2. High prices of new medicines
Thanks to a large number of affluent or well-insured patients, the profit-maximising price of a new medicine tends to be quite high.
Consequently, most people around the world cannot afford advanced medicines that are still under patent.
This is especially vexing because manufacturing costs are generally quite low.
3. Rewards are poorly correlated to the therapeutic value of drugs
Firms earn billions by developing duplicative drugs that add little to our pharmaceutical toolbox — and billions more by cleverly marketing their drugs for patients who won’t benefit.
These large R&D investments would be much better spent on developing new life-saving treatments for deadly diseases plaguing the world’s poor.
Health Impact Fund: Solution to the above problems
The Health Impact Fund as an alternative track on which pharmaceutical innovators may choose to be rewarded.
The basic idea behind it:
Any new medicine registered with the Health Impact Fund would have to be sold at or below the variable cost of manufacture and distribution.
But would earn ten annual reward payments based on the health gains achieved with it.
How health impact fund would work?
The Health Impact Fund could start with as little as ₹20000 crore per annum and might then attract some 10-12 medicines, with one entering and one exiting in a typical year.
Registered products would then earn some ₹17000-₹20000 crore, on average, during their first ten years.
Of course, some would earn more than others – by having greater therapeutic value or by benefiting more people.
Long-term funding for the Health Impact Fund might come from willing governments.
Those countries would contribute in proportion to their gross national incomes — or from an international tax, perhaps on greenhouse gas emissions or speculative financial transactions.
Non-contributing affluent countries would forgo the benefits: the pricing constraint on registered products would not apply to them.
This gives innovators more reason to register as they can still sell their product at high prices in some affluent countries and affluent countries reason to join.
The fund will have the following 5 major benefits
1. Help the Neglected areas of research
The Health Impact Fund would get pharmaceutical firms interested in certain R&D projects that are unprofitable under the current regime – especially ones expected to produce large health gains among mostly poor people.
With the Health Impact Fund in place, there can be more research on diseases like Tuberculosis or Malaria, even Covid.
We can develop rich arsenal of effective interventions and greater capacities for targeted responses quickly.
2. Rewarding health outcomes and not sales
The Health Impact Fund will focus on performance of drugs and not make it a marketing stunt.
Like in its model, firms would earn annual reward payments based on the health gains achieved with by the medicine.
Present scenario: firms seek to influence hospitals, insurers, doctors and patients to use their patented drug and to favour it over other more effective medicines.
3. Sustainable research and marketing system
A reward mechanism oriented towards health gains rather than high-markup sales would lead to a sustainable research-and-marketing system.
How? Simple for health gains, innovators will have to ensure:
They will have to think holistically about how their drug can work in the context of many other factors relevant to treatment outcomes.
They will need to think about therapies and diagnostics together, in order to identify and reach the patients who can benefit most.
They will need to monitor results in real time to recognize and address possible impediments to therapeutic success.
Finally, they will have need to ensure that patients have affordable access to the drug and are properly instructed and motivated to make optimal use of it with the drug still in prime condition.
Such a system would obviously make research more streamlined and sustainable.
4. No fear of compulsory licence clause
Participation of commercial pharmaceutical firms is crucial for tackling global pandemics.
At present such firms have issues with use of compulsory licences by governments as it divest them of their monopoly rewards.
Health Impact Fund registration would remove this risk as states would have no reason to interfere with innovators whose profit lies in giving real and rapid at-cost access to their new product to all who may need it.
5. Holistic approach
Multinational firms can collaborate with national health systems, international agencies and NGOs, to build a strong public-health strategy around its product.
The highest goal here would be complete eradication of many communicable diseases(Example: Malaria) which we are fighting right now.
Can we apply the above to Covid-19?
Applying it to a new disease like COVID-19 is complicated by the fact that we lack here a well-established baseline representing the harm the disease would have done in the absence of the new medicine to be assessed.
For malaria, such a baseline can be established on the basis of a stable disease trajectory observable over many years.
In the case of a new epidemic, one must rely on a modelling exercise that estimates the baseline trajectory on the basis of obtainable data about the spread of the disease and its impact on infected patients.
This surely is a challenging undertaking which cannot yield precise or uncontroversial results about what damage the epidemic would truly have done if the vaccine or medication in question had not appeared.
Consider the question “Drug pricing has always plagued the authorities and policymakers. Cap it and you tend to lose on innovation. Deregulate it, and high prices make it unaffordable. In light of this, examine the issues with the R&D in the pharmaceutical sector and suggest the ways to strike the balance between lives and innovation.”
Conclusion
The Health Impact Fund would give innovators the right incentives. It would guide them to ask not: how can we develop an effective product and then achieve high sales at high markups? But rather: how can we develop an effective product and then deploy it so as to help reduce the overall disease burden as effectively as possible?
op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India,Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India'S Interests
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Gulf countries
Mains level: Paper 2- Stability and security in the Persian gulf and impact on India
This article analyses the security environment in the Gulf countries. Their common characteristic as being the oil producers and similarity in their social and security problems are also explained in detail in this article. And all this has implications for India. So, what are the implications? Read to know…
Let’s look at the importance of countries surrounding Persian Gulf
The United Nations defines this body of water as the Persian Gulf.
The lands around it are shared by eight countries: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
All are the members of the UN.
There is a commonality of interest among them in being major producers of crude oil and natural gas.
And thereby contribute critically to the global economy and to their own prosperity.
This has added to their geopolitical significance.
At the same time, turbulence has often characterised their inter se political relations.
Arab Countries surrounding Persian Gulf
Power play and security of the region
For eight decades prior to 1970, this body of water was a closely guarded British lake, administered in good measure by imperial civil servants from India.
When that era ended, regional players sought to assert themselves.
Imperatives of rivalry and cooperation became evident and, as a United States State Department report put it in 1973, ‘The upshot of all these cross currents is that the logic of Saudi-Iranian cooperation is being undercut by psychological, nationalistic, and prestige factors, which are likely to persist for a long time.’
The Nixon and the Carter Doctrines were the logical outcomes to ensure American hegemony.
An early effort for collective security, attempted in a conference in Muscat in 1975, was thwarted by Baathist Iraq.
The Iranian Revolution put an end to the Twin Pillar approach and disturbed the strategic balance.
The Iraq-Iran War enhanced U.S. interests and role.
Many moons and much bloodshed later, it was left to the Security Council through Resolution 598 (1987) to explore ‘measures to enhance the security and stability in the region’.
Gulf regional security framework: Some questions
Any framework for stability and security thus needs to answer a set of questions:
Security for whom, by whom, against whom, for what purpose?
Is the requirement in local, regional or global terms?
Does it require an extra-regional agency?
Given the historical context, one recalls a Saudi scholar’s remark in the 1990s that ‘Gulf regional security was an external issue long before it was an issue among the Gulf States themselves.’
What should be the ingredients of a regional security framework?
The essential ingredients of such a framework would thus be to ensure: 1) conditions of peace and stability in individual littoral states; 2) freedom to all states of the Gulf littoral to exploit their hydrocarbon and other natural resources and export them; 3) freedom of commercial shipping in international waters of the Persian Gulf 4)freedom of access to, and outlet from, Gulf waters through the Strait of Hormuz; 5) prevention of conflict that may impinge on the freedom of trade and shipping and 6)prevention of emergence of conditions that may impinge on any of these considerations.
Could such a framework be self-sustaining or require external guarantees for its operational success?
If the latter, what should its parameters be?
Misunderstanding the role great powers can play
Statesmen often confuse great power with total power and great responsibility with total responsibility.
The war in Iraq and its aftermath testify to it.
The U.S. effort to ‘contain’ the Iranian revolutionary forces, supplemented by the effort of the Arab states of the littoral (except Iraq) GCC initially met with success in some functional fields and a lack of it in its wider objectives.
The turbulent nature of US-Iran relations
In the meantime, geopolitical factors and conflicts elsewhere in the West Asian region — Yemen, Syria, Libya — aggravated global and regional relationships.
And it hampered a modus vivendi in U.S.-Iran relations that was to be premised on the multilateral agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme agreed to by western powers and the Obama Administration.
But it was disowned by U.S. President Donald Trump whose strident policies have taken the region to the brink of armed conflict.
Perception of declining U.S. commitment to sub-regional security
Perceptions of declining U.S. commitment to sub-regional security have been articulated in recent months amid hints of changing priorities.
This is reported to have caused disquiet in some, perhaps all, members of the GCC, the hub of whose security concern remains pivoted on an Iranian threat (political and ideological rather than territorial).
And American insurance to deter it based on a convergence of interests in which oil, trade, arms purchases, etc have a role along with wider U.S. regional and global determinants.
It is evident that a common GCC threat perception has not evolved over time.
It has been hampered by the emergence of conflicting tactical and strategic interests and subjective considerations.
The current divisions within the organisation are therefore here to stay.
These have been aggravated by 1)the global economic crisis, 2) the immediate and longer term impact of COVID-19 on regional economies, 3) the problems in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 4) and the decline in oil prices.
Let’s look at the emerging trends in the region
One credible assessment suggests that in the emerging shape of the region.
1) Saudi Arabia is a fading power.
2) UAE, Qatar and Iran are emerging as the new regional leaders.
3) Oman and Iraq will have to struggle to retain their sovereign identities.
4)The GCC is effectively ended, and OPEC is becoming irrelevant as oil policy moves to a tripartite global condominium.
None of this will necessarily happen overnight and external intervention could interfere in unexpected ways.
But it is fair to say that the Persian Gulf as we have known for at least three generations is in the midst of a fundamental transformation.
Improvement relations between Arab states and Iran
With the Arab League entombed and the GCC on life-support system, the Arab states of this sub-region are left to individual devices to explore working arrangements with Iraq and Iran.
The imperatives for these are different but movement on both is discernible.
With Iran in particular and notwithstanding the animosities of the past, pragmatic approaches of recent months seem to bear fruit.
Oman has always kept its lines of communication with Iran open.
Kuwait and Qatar had done likewise but in a quieter vein.
And now the UAE has initiated pragmatic arrangements.
These could set the stage for a wider dialogue.
Both Iran and the GCC states would benefit from a formal commitment to an arrangement incorporating the six points listed above.
So would every outside nation that has trading and economic interests in the Gulf. This could be sanctified by a global convention.
Record shows that the alternative of exclusive security arrangements promotes armament drives, enhances insecurity and aggravates regional tensions.
It unavoidably opens the door for Great Power interference.
Ties with India and impact on its strategic interests
Locating the Persian Gulf littoral with reference to India is an exercise in geography and history.
The distance from Mumbai to Basra is 1,526 nautical miles and Bander Abbas and Dubai are in a radius of 1,000 nautical miles.
The bilateral relationship, economic and political, with the GCC has blossomed in recent years.
The governments are India-friendly and Indian-friendly and appreciate the benefits of a wide-ranging relationship.
This is well reflected in the bilateral trade of around $121 billion and remittances of $49 billion from a workforce of over nine million.
GCC suppliers account for around 34% of our crude imports and national oil companies in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are partners in a $44 billion investment in the giant Ratnagiri oil refinery.
In addition, Saudi Aramco is reported to take a 20% stake in Reliance oil-to-chemicals business.
The current adverse impact of the pandemic on our economic relations with the GCC countries has now become a matter of concern.
India’s relationship with Iran
The relationship with Iran, the complex at all times and more so recently on account of overt American pressure, has economic potential and geopolitical relevance on account of its actual or alleged role in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Iran also neighbours Turkey and some countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.
Its size, politico-technological potential and economic resources, cannot be wished away, regionally and globally, but can be harnessed for wider good.
Consider the question “Stability and security of the Persian Gulf region has wider consequences for Indians strategic concerns. Comment.”
Conclusion
Indian interests would be best served if this stability is ensured through cooperative security since the alternative — of competitive security options — cannot ensure durable peace.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: GDP, GNP, GVA etc.
Mains level: Not Much
The National Statistical Office (NSO) recently released its provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2019-20. The release also detailed the estimates of the Gross Value Added (GVA).
Try this question from CSP 2011:
Q. In the context of Indian economy, consider the following statements
1. The growth rate of GDP has steadily increased in the last five years.
2. The growth rate in per capita income has steadily increased in the last five years.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a.) 1 only
(b.) 2 only
(c.) Both 1 and 2
(d.) Neither 1 nor 2
The GVA method
In 2015, in the wake of a comprehensive review of its approach to GDP measurement, India opted to make major changes to its compilation of national accounts.
It aims to bring the whole process into conformity with the UN System of National Accounts (SNA) of 2008.
What is GVA?
As per the SNA, GVA is defined as the value of output minus the value of intermediate consumption.
GVA is a measure of the contribution to GDP made by an individual producer, industry or sector.
At its simplest, it gives the rupee value of goods and services produced in the economy after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials used.
It can be described as the main entry on the income side of the nation’s accounting balance sheet, and from economics, perspective represents the supply side.
How it has changed income calculation?
While India had been measuring GVA earlier, it had done so using ‘factor cost’.
GDP at ‘factor cost’ was the main parameter for measuring the country’s overall economic output until the new methodology was adopted.
GVA at basic prices became the primary measure of output across the economy’s various sectors and when added to net taxes on products amounts to the GDP.
In the new series, the base year was shifted to 2011-12 from the earlier 2004-05.
GVA estimates by NSO
As part of the data on GVA, the NSO provides both quarterly and annual estimates of output — measured by the gross value added — by economic activity.
The sectoral classification provides data on eight broad categories that span the gamut of goods produced and services provided in the economy.
These are: 1) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; 2) Mining and Quarrying; 3) Manufacturing; 4) Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and other Utility Services; 5) Construction; 6) Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting; 7) Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services; 8) Public Administration, Defence and other Services.
How relevant is the GVA data given that headline growth always refers to GDP?
The GVA data is crucial to understand how the various sectors of the real economy are performing.
The output or domestic product is essentially a measure of GVA combined with net taxes.
However, GDP can be and is also computed as the sum total of the various expenditures incurred in the economy.
It includes private consumption spending, government consumption spending and gross fixed capital formation or investment spending; these reflect essentially on the demand conditions in the economy.
Significance of GVA
From a policymaker’s perspective, it is vital to have the GVA data to be able to make policy interventions, where needed.
Also, from global data standards and uniformity perspective, GVA is an integral and necessary parameter in measuring a nation’s economic performance.
Issues with GVA
As with all economic statistics, the accuracy of GVA as a measure of overall national output is heavily dependent on the sourcing of data and the fidelity of the various data sources.
To that extent, GVA is as susceptible to vulnerabilities from the use of inappropriate or flawed methodologies as any other measure.
Economists argue that India’s switch of its base year to 2011-12 had led to a significant overestimation of growth.
They argued that the value-based approach instead of the earlier volume-based tack in GVA estimation had affected the measurement of the formal manufacturing sector and thus distorted the outcome.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: IPAC
Mains level: Global move to curb Chinese overambitions
Senior lawmakers from eight democracies including the US have united to counter Communist China. They have launched the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC).
Points to ponder:
The world is growing conscious against China after its coronavirus adventure. IPAC is the first step towards the institutionalization of the Anti-China consciousness!
What should be India’s stance here?
IPAC
IPAC is a new cross-parliamentary alliance to help counter what the threat posed by China’s growing influence on global trade, security and human rights.
The participating nations include the US, Germany, UK, Japan, Australia, Canada, Sweden, Norway, as well as members of the European parliament.
It is an international cross-party group of legislators working towards reform on how democratic countries approach China.
Comprised of legislators from eight democracies it will be led by a group of co-chairs who are senior politicians drawn from a representative cross-section of the world’s major political parties.
The group aims to “construct appropriate and coordinated responses, and to help craft a proactive and strategic approach on issues related to China.”
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: PM-KISAN
Mains level: Paper 3- Agri-marketing reforms
agriculture plays an important role in decreasing rural poverty in developing countries. Improved irrigation methods, seeds, and fertilizers have led to increased agricultural production in rural areas. The ECA is an act which was established to ensure the delivery of certain commodities or products, the supply of which if obstructed owing to hoarding or black-marketing would affect the normal life of the people. The ECA was enacted in 1955. This includes foodstuff, drugs, fuel (petroleum products) etc
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: EPI
Mains level: India's EPI and various loopholes in its climate action policy
India has secured 168 ranks in the 12th edition of the biennial Environment Performance Index (EPI Index 2020).
CSP 2019 has been a year with two questions based on rankings and indices viz. the EoDB index and Global Competitiveness Index. Note all such indices and their publishing agencies here at [Prelims Spotlight] Important reports and indexes
About EPI
The EPI measures the environmental performance of 180 countries.
It is biennially released by the Yale University.
It considers 32 indicators of environmental performance, giving a snapshot of the 10-year trends in environmental performance at the national and global levels.
The performance on climate change was assessed based on the following indicators —
Adjusted emission growth rates;
Composed of growth rates of four greenhouse gases and one pollutant;
Growth rate in carbon dioxide emissions from land cover;
Greenhouse gas intensity growth rate; and
Greenhouse gas emissions per capita.
Performance of the South Asian Region
The 11 countries lagging behind India were — Burundi, Haiti, Chad, Solomon Islands, Madagascar, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Myanmar and Liberia.
All South Asian countries, except Afghanistan, were ahead of India in the ranking.
India’s performance
A ten-year comparison progress report in the index showed that India slipped on climate-related parameters.
India scored below the regional average score on all five key parameters on environmental health, including air quality, sanitation and drinking water, heavy metals and waste management.
It has also scored below the regional average on parameters related to biodiversity and ecosystem services too.
Among South Asian countries, India was at the second position (rank 106) after Pakistan on ‘climate change’. Pakistan’s score (50.6) was the highest under the category.
Remarks for India
The report indicated that black carbon, carbon dioxide emissions and greenhouse emissions per capita increased in 10 years.
India needs to re-double national sustainability efforts on all fronts, according to the index.
It needs to focus on a wide spectrum of sustainability issues, with a high-priority to critical issues such as air and water quality, biodiversity and climate change.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Aerosols
Mains level: Assessing the potential of aerosols in global warming
Indian researchers have found that the effect of anthropogenic aerosols is much higher over the high altitudes of western trans-Himalayas.
Try this question from CSP 2019:
Q. In the context of which of the following do some scientists suggest the use of cirrus cloud thinning technique and the injection of sulphate aerosol into the stratosphere?
(a) Creating the artificial rains in some regions
(b) Reducing the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones
(c) Reducing the adverse effects of solar wind on the Earth
(d) Reducing the global warming
What are Aerosols?
An aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas.
They can be natural or anthropogenic.
Examples of natural aerosols are fog, mist, dust, forest exudates and geyser steam. Examples of anthropogenic aerosols are particulate air pollutants and smoke.
The liquid or solid particles have diameters typically less than 1 μm; larger particles with a significant settling speed make the mixture a suspension, but the distinction is not clear-cut.
Technological applications of aerosols include dispersal of pesticides, medical treatment of respiratory illnesses, and combustion technology.
Heat pump over the Himalayas
The transport of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols and dust from the polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain and desert areas over the Himalayas constitutes a major climatic issue due to severe impacts on atmospheric warming and glacier retreat.
This heating over the Himalayas facilitates the “elevated-hat pump” that strengthens the temperature gradient between land and ocean and modifies the atmospheric circulation and the monsoon rainfall.
Findings of the research
The monthly-mean atmospheric radiative forcing of aerosols leads to heating rates of 0.04 to 0.13 C per day.
Further, the temperature over the Ladakh region is increasing 0.3 to 0.4 degrees Celsius per decades from the last 3 decades.
How are aerosols fuelling the heat?
The atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the regional/global climate system through scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation and by modifying the cloud microphysics.
Assessing the Aerosol potential
Despite the large progress in quantifying the impact of different aerosols on radiative forcing, it still remains one of the major uncertainties in the climate change assessment.
Precise measurements of aerosol properties are required to reduce the uncertainties, especially over the oceans and high altitude remote location in the Himalayas where they are scarce.
Researchers have analysed the variability of aerosol optical, physical and radiative properties and the role of fine and coarse particles in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) assessment.
ARF is the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface and on the absorption of radiation within the atmosphere.
Significance of ARF study
A scientific study of aerosol generation, transport, and its properties has important implications in our understanding and mitigation of climate change via atmospheric warming.
Aerosols impact the snow and glacier dynamics over the trans-Himalayan region.
The results from the study can help better understanding of aerosol effects in view of aerosol-climate implications.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Magnetocaloric Effect
Mains level: Magnetocaloric Effect and its application in Cancer treatment
Indian scientists have developed a rare-earth-based magnetocaloric material that can be effectively used for cancer treatment.
Magnetocaloric Effect does have other applications like in the field of medical implants but for use in energy field, it is still in nascent stage.
From exam perspective, do understand what principles lies behind this effect.
What is Magnetocaloric Effect?
Magnetocaloric effect (MCE) is a phenomenon where the application and removal of a magnetic field cause certain materials to get warmer and cooler, respectively.
This effect normally occurs near its Curie temperature where the application of the field makes the material to warm up and cools up when the field is removed.
Issue of hyperthermia in cancer treatment
Advancements in magnetic materials led to the development of magnetic hyperthermia to try to address the issues of side effects of cancer treatment like chemotherapy.
In magnetic hyperthermia, magnetic nanoparticles are subjected to alternating magnetic fields of few Gauss, which produce heat due to magnetic relaxation losses.
Usually, the temperature required to kill the tumour cells is between 40 and 45°C.
However, the drawback in magnetic hyperthermia is the lack of control of temperature, which may damage the healthy cells in the body and also have side effects like increased BP, hair losses etc.
Here comes in, Magnetocaloric materials
This hypothermia can be avoided by using magnetocaloric materials, as it can provide controlled heating.
The advantage of magnetocaloric materials which heat up or cool down with the application and removal of the magnetic field, respectively is that as soon as the magnetic field is removed, the cooling effect is generated.
The team at ARCI chose rare-earth-based alloy for studies as some of the rare earth materials are human body compatible.
The heating capacity would increase with the increase in the magnetic field.
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: EESL, MAITREE
Mains level: Energy saving and its significance in carbon emissions reduction
The Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL) has launched the “Healthy and Energy Efficient Buildings” initiative that will pioneer ways to make workplaces healthier and greener.
Possible prelims question:
Q. The MAITREE programme recently seen in news is related to: Trade/Energy Efficiency/Climate Change/ Strategic Relations
About the Initiative
The initiative has been launched by EESL in partnership with the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) MAITREE program.
As part of this initiative, EESL has taken the leadership by being the first to implement this framework in its own offices.
This initiative addresses the challenges of retrofitting existing buildings and air conditioning systems so that they are both healthy and energy-efficient.
It will pave the way for other buildings to take appropriate steps to be healthy and energy-efficient.
What is the MAITREE program,?
The Market Integration and Transformation Program for Energy Efficiency (MAITREE) is a part of the US-India bilateral Partnership between the Ministry of Power and USAID.
It is aimed at accelerating the adoption of cost-effective energy efficiency as a standard practice within buildings and specifically focuses on cooling.
Significance of the initiative
Poor air quality has been a concern in India for quite some time and has become more important in light of the COVID pandemic.
As people return to their offices and public spaces, maintaining good indoor air quality is essential for occupant comfort, well-being, productivity and the overall public health.
Most buildings in India are not equipped to establish and maintain healthy indoor air quality and need to be upgraded.
The EESL office pilot will address this problem by developing specifications for future use in other buildings throughout the country.
It will aid in evaluating the effectiveness and cost benefits of various technologies and their short and long-term impacts on air quality, comfort, and energy use.
Back2Basics: EESL
Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL), under the administration of Ministry of Power, is working towards mainstreaming energy efficiency.
It is implementing the world’s largest energy efficiency portfolio in the country.
EESL aims to create market access for efficient and future-ready transformative solutions that create a win-win situation for every stakeholder.
About USAID: USAID is the world’s premier international development agency and a catalytic actor driving development results.
