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Issues related to Economic growth

India’s Economic Growth story and the future roadmap

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Economic indicators

Mains level: India's economic growth story, current challenges and the future roadmap

Economic

Context

  • By 2047, India will complete 100 years after Independence. By that time, India strives to achieve the status of a developed economy, which means achieving a minimum per capita income equivalent to $13,000.

Economic growth during the British period

  • Poor state of economy: It is not realized often that India’s economic progress in the first half of the 20th century under British rule was dismal. According to one estimate, during the five decades, India’s annual growth rate was just 0.89%.
  • Negligible growth in per capita: With the population growing at 0.83%, per capita income grew at 0.06%. It is not surprising that immediately after Independence, growth became the most urgent concern for policymakers.

Economic growth after Independence

  • In the early period, India’s strategy of development comprised four elements:
  1. Raising the savings and investment rate;
  2. Dominance of state intervention;
  3. Import substitution, and
  4. Domestic manufacture of capital goods.
  • Modest growth till 1970: India’s average growth till the end of the 1970s remained modest, with the average growth rate being 3.6%. With a population growth of 2.2%, the per capita income growth rate was extremely modest at 1.4%.
  • Improvement in social indicators: On certain health and social parameters, such as the literacy rate and life expectancy, there were noticeable improvements.
  • The success of green revolution: While India had to rely on the heavy imports of food grains on a concessional basis, initially, there was a breakthrough in agriculture after the Green Revolution.
  • Industrial base widened: The industrial base expanded with time. India became capable of producing a wide variety of goods including steel and machinery.
  • Unsustainable fiscal policy: Plan after plan, actual growth was less than what was projected. The Indian economy did grow at 5.6% in the 1980s. But it was accompanied by a sharp deterioration in the fiscal and current account deficits, and the economy faced its worst crisis in 1991-92.

Economic

Statistics of economic growth after 1991

  • Rapid economic growth: Between 1992-93 and 2000-01, GDP at factor cost grew annually by 6.20%. Between 2001-02 and 2012-13, it grew by 7.4% and the growth rate between 2013-14 and 2019-20 was 6.7%.
  • Sustained period of high growth rate: The best performance was between 2005-06 and 2010-11 when GDP grew by 8.8%, showing clearly what the potential growth rate of India was. This is the highest growth experienced by India over a sustained period of five to six years. This was despite the fact that this period included the global crisis year of 2008-09.
  • Rising investment rate: There was a corresponding increase in the savings rate. The current account deficit in the Balance of Payments (BOP) remained low at an average of 1.9%.
  • Setback to growth after 2011-12: However, the growth story suffered a setback after 2011-12. The growth rate fell to 4.5% in 2012-13 according to the 2004-05 series. The growth rate since then has seen ups and downs. The growth rate touched the 3.7% level in 2019-20.

Economic

Roadmap for Future Growth

  • Keeping the sustained growth rate: The first and foremost task is to raise the growth rate. Calculations show that if India achieves a 7% rate of growth continuously over the next two decades and more, it will make a substantial change to the level of the economy. India may almost touch the status of a developed economy.
  • Maintaining the incremental capital output ratio: If India maintains the incremental capital output ratio at 4, which is a reflection of the efficiency with which we use capital, India can comfortably achieve a 7% rate of growth.
  • Investment must be increased: Raising the investment rate depends on a number of factors. A proper investment climate must be created and sustained.
  • Private investment is crucial: While public investment should also rise, the major component of investment is private investment, both corporate and non-corporate. It is this which depends on a stable financial and fiscal system. The importance of price stability in this context cannot be ignored.
  • New technologies must be embraced: India needs to absorb the new technologies that have emerged, and that will emerge. Its development strategy must be multidimensional.
  • Strong Export and manufacturing: India need a strong export sector. It is a test of efficiency. At the same time, India needs a strong manufacturing sector. The organized segment of this sector must also increase.
  • Strengthened the social safety nets: As output and income increase, India must also strengthen the system of social safety nets. Growth without equity is not sustainable.

Challenges for India’s growth

  • Low per capita income: India today is the fifth largest economy. This is an impressive achievement. However, in relation to per capita income, it is a different story. In 2020, India’s rank was 142 out of 197 countries. This only shows the distance we have to travel.
  • Declining growth in developing countries: The external environment is not going to be conducive. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development reports a secular decline in growth in developed countries.
  • Climate change may affect the growth: Environmental considerations may also act as a damper on growth. Some adjustment on the composition of growth may become necessary.

Conclusion

  • Considering the India’s population, India has no option but to grow continuously. Government has undertaken major structural reform and policy initiatives like GATI-SHAKTI to give fillip to growth of economy. These are the steps in the right directions and more such liberalizing initiatives need to be encouraged.

Mains Question

Q. Briefly describe the history of economic growth of India after independence. What could be the roadmap for future growth of India till 2047?

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Modern Indian History-Events and Personalities

Shivaji Maharaj and the Agra escape

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: National heroes

Mains level: Medieval history, Maratha kingdom and the important persons

Shivaji Maharaj

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Context

  • Recently, Maharashtra Tourism Minister Mangal Lodha triggered a controversy by equating Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj’s legendary Agra escape to Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s defection from the Uddhav Thackeray-led camp in Maharashtra. His comments drew sharp criticism from political parties and other organisations that venerate Shivaji as a Maratha icon, with no parallel in the past or present.

Brief Political background of the issue

  • Eknath Shinde’s “revolt” against party leadership and CM Uddhav Thackeray in June this year led to the fall of the coalition government of the Shiv Sena, NCP, and the Congress. He has since taken the reins of Maharashtra as its CM.

Shivaji Maharaj

Who was Chhattrapati Shivaji Maharaj?

  • Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj (1630-1680): He was born on 19th February, 1630 at Shivneri Fort in District Pune in the present-day state of Maharashtra. He was born to a general Shahaji raje who served different Deccan Sultans over the course of his life and Jijabai, as known to be an influential and determined woman who was an embodiment of self-respect and virtue.
  • Founder of an Independent Maratha kingdom: Shivaji Maharaj was keen on expanding his father’s fiefdom of modern-day Pune into an independent Maratha state. He carved out an independent Maratha kingdom from various Deccan states in the 17th century. At the time of his death, he held around 300 forts over an area that stretched across the Konkan coast, from Surat to near Goa, and was overlooked by the strategic Western Ghats.
  • Contemporary kingdoms and power struggle: At this point of time, several Sultanates (mainly Bijapur, Golkonda and Ahmadnagar) and the Mughals were vying for the control of the Deccan. As Mughal power grew, these Sultanates would become tributaries to the Mughal Empire (while often continuing to bicker among themselves) with the rulers and ruling clans being given positions in the Mughal court.
  • Lifetime conflicts and fights for Swaraj: His conflict with the Adil Shahi Sultanate of Bijapur began when he was only 16. He would spend the rest of his life fighting various opponents, and in the process, laying the foundation for the Maratha Empire which would stretch across large parts of the Indian subcontinent and rule till the 19th Century.
  • Importance of forts in his times: Early in his life, he realised that the key to holding power in the Deccan (or for that matter, many places in India in that era) was to capture and hold important forts. Thus, his strategies would be centred around taking control of forts in strategic locations, often on hilltops. He also repaired and built new forts as his sphere of control increased.

How is Shivaji Maharaj remembered?

  • An inspiration to fight against the colonial rule: Shivaji remained a Maratha folk legend until two centuries after his death. It was the British Raj and the subsequent anti-colonial movement that marked his increasing stature in history and as a pan Indian hero.
  • From a folk hero to a Pan India hero: Nationalist historians saw him as an example of an local Indian ruler who was able to successfully resist and defeat the powerful and oppressive “outsiders” (Muslim rulers, including both Mughals and the Deccan Sultans). Thus, Shivaji rose from being a folk hero to a nationalist icon, seen as a proto-nationalist himself.
  • Tales of his bravery and just rule used to infuse motivation: Tales of his bravery were told to galvanise a population that was enduring emasculation and injustices under its British overlords. Over the 19th and 20th centuries, the narrative around Shivaji Maharaj emphasised on both his military heroism and his just rule.

Shivaji Maharaj

Shivaji Maharaj and the Mughals

  • Meteoric rise: Shivaji Maharaj’s meteoric rise posed challenges to the suzerainty of the Mughals. His first direct encounter with the Mughals was during Aurangzeb’s Deccan campaigns of the 1650s. As Aurangzeb went North to fight for the Mughal throne, Shivaji Maharaj was able to seize further territory.
  • Swift and smart warfare tactics beyond understanding of the Mughals: His tactics against the Mughals were adapted to the specific nature of his force and the flabby Mughal armies. Using swift cavalry attacks, he would raid and pillage Mughal strongholds. While on the rare occasion he would engage in battle to actually capture and hold Mughal positions, most often, he would simply cause much menace, raid the treasury, and leave with the Mughals in terror and disarray.
  • Well know Seize of Surat: Famously, in 1664, he attacked the port of Surat (now in Gujarat) and plundered one of the richest and busiest commercial towns of Mughal India while the local governor hid in a nearby fort.
  • Posed a greatest challenge to Aurangzeb and subsequent treaty of Purandar: As the legend of Shivaji and the physical sphere of his influence grew, Aurangzeb sent a 100,000-strong, well-equipped army under Raja Jai Singh I to subdue him in 1665. After putting up a valiant fight, Shivaji was besieged in the Purandar hill fort.

The chronology of the great escape

  • Taken to Agra after purandar treaty: He was taken to Aurangzeb’s court in Agra in 1666. He presented Aurangzeb with various gifts, but he felt slighted at the treatment he received in return, and made his displeasure clear in open court.
  • Kept under strict House arrest: Aurangzeb put him under house arrest in Agra. Far away from home and help, Shivaji realised he needed to escape to save himself and his territories. He began to plot a plan to return home and keep up his fight against the Mughals.
  • The perfect plan of escape: The story of Shivaji’s subsequent escape is now part of common lore. The popularly told story involves an elaborate plan, under which he began daily distribution of alms to brahmans. The alms would be sent from his home in Agra in large, covered baskets.
  • The final escape right under the nose of Mughals: After some time, the Mughal guards became lax about checking the contents of the baskets that daily left his house. One day, Shivaji slipped into one of the baskets, and put his young son, Sambhaji, in another basket. It was in these covered baskets that Shivaji and his son left Agra, right under the noses of the Mughals.
  • Smart and swift movement in disguise from the Mughal territory: From there, he would traverse across Mughal territory, living incognito until he reached the safer lands closer to home. Some versions of this story say that he took the disguise of a wandering ascetic while others say he had a number of different disguises. His exact path is not known, though folktales and songs memorialising Shivaji often mention different towns and places he crossed.
  • Embarrassed Aurangzeb regarded him as a king: Aurangzeb was livid and embarrassed. But he chose not to start an immediate conflict with Shivaji again. Instead, he offered Shivaji the title of Raja and guaranteed his authority in the Maratha lands as long as he acknowledged the supremacy of the Mughals and maintained truce.

Shivaji Maharaj

Coronation of Shivaji Maharaj to Chhatrapati and the ideal rule

  • By 1669, Shivaji had regrouped and raised an effective army. Using his old guerilla tactics, he would swiftly descend into static Mughal and Bijapuri strongholds, looting and pillaging the shocked Mughals.
  • During this time, Aurangzeb was occupied with Pathan revolts in the North-West corner of his Empire. Shivaji deftly regained his lost positions in the Konkan coast. In 1674, he crowned himself Chhatrapati, officially creating an independent Maratha kingdom.
  • The next six years were spent expanding his rule and forging new political norms, replacing the prevailing Indo-Persian court culture. He promoted the use of Marathi and Sanskrit in his courts and created an elaborate administrative system with a council of ministers known as “Ashta Pradhan.”

Conclusion

  • Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj is not just a name or a person but to many he is an idea, a life and inspiration for today and tomorrow, which has no parallel in the past or the present.
  • Protection of the Swarajya and welfare of his subjects were the motives that pushed Shivaji Maharaj to escape from Agra. Comparing his love for his subjects with the political exigencies and manoeuvers of present-day politicians will be an injustice to the astuteness of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.

Mains question

Q. Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj is considered as the king of the people; Discuss how he is remembered today and what qualities make him stand tall and different from those of the past and present?

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Indian Ocean Power Competition

North East as Gateway to Indo-Pacific Strategy

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Indo-Pacific and importance of North east

Indo-Pacific

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Context

  • India’s ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ policies have moved into the phase of Indo-Pacific policy and strategy. But what we in the national capital interpret as the ‘Indo-Pacific’ is different from the perceptions of this policy in North-eastern and eastern India.

What is Indo-pacific?

  • The Indo-Pacific is geographic region interpreted differently by different countries.
  • For India, the geography of the Indo-Pacific stretches from the eastern coast of Africa to Oceania whereas, for US, it extends up to the west coast of India which is also the geographic boundary of the US Indo-Pacific command.

Indo-Pacific

Importance of North-East

  • Security of India: The Northeast which comprises seven ‘sisters’ or States and one ‘brother’, Sikkim, has been witnessing transformation as it heads towards better security conditions and development
  • Geography and Biodiversity: North-eastern Indian States are blessed with a wide range of physiographic and ecoclimatic conditions and the geographical ‘gateway’ for much of India’s endemic flora and fauna.
  • Siliguri corridor only connecting link: North-East is home to 3.8% of the national population and occupies about 8% of India’s total geographical area. Siliguri corridor, a narrow strip of land in West Bengal, popularly known as “chicken’s neck” connects this region to the rest of mainland India.

Present condition of north east

  • Improved security: Security conditions have improved significantly since 2017. However, the core issues behind the insurgency have remained unresolved.
  • Serious non-traditional threats: A notable contrast in security assessments of the authorities and others came to the fore. The official perspective was that the pernicious phenomena of smuggling, drug trafficking, transnational border crime, insurgent activity, and the influx of refugees (from Myanmar) represented serious non-traditional threats.
  • Chinese hand in nefarious activities: China was viewed as a ‘constant player’ behind these nefarious activities. This has necessitated vigilance and strict action by the Assam Rifles and other security agencies.
  • Sensitive border management: The insensitive handling of those engaged in lawful exchanges with the neighbouring countries. A balanced view indicates that considerable scope exists for more effective and people-sensitive border management in the future.

Development as priority in North East

  • Rising road infrastructure: The Northeast is on the right path to concentrate on economic development. More is awaited through improvement in roads linking north-eastern towns and job creation for thousands of graduates produced by local universities.
  • Hub of medical tourism: Manipur needs to be promoted as the hub of medical tourism for other Indian States and neighbours such as Myanmar.
  • Investment needs to increase: The State’s research and development facilities to leverage the region’s biodiversity should be expanded. Accelerated development requires increased investment by Indian corporates and foreign investors as well as better management.
  • Blueprint for economic development: Strategic and business community to contribute to crafting a concrete blueprint for leveraging opportunities relating to commerce, connectivity, and human capital development.

Cultural diplomacy from North east

  • Showcasing the culture of north east: An ambitious endeavour by 75 artists from nine countries highlighted the region’s ‘unity in diversity’ through music, dance, drama, and cuisine.
  • Education, tourism and trade: Clearly, expanding the reach of cultural diplomacy and people-to-people cooperation through greater educational exchanges, tourism, and trade is desirable.
  • Regional cooperation through cultural exchange: Harsh Vardhan Shringla, former Foreign Secretary, aptly stressed that the “shared culture, history and mutual social threads that tie the region with India also an important component towards fostering regional cooperation”.

Indo-Pacific

Cultural dimension to Indo-Pacific

  • Geo-cultural dimension: At Kolkata, intellectuals and performers in the cultural domain from India, the U.S., Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh reflected on the Indo-Pacific construct’s cultural dimensions. Moving beyond geopolitics and geo-economics, neighbors should focus on “the geo-cultural dimension” of the Indo-Pacific.
  • Expanding people to people cooperation: Diplomats from the region agree on the importance of expanded people-related cooperation which would lead to wider acceptance of the Indo-Pacific and consolidation of the Quad.

Conclusion

  • While implementing India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, voices from Northeast and eastern India must be heard. Thus, beyond ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ lies ‘Think and Relate East’, especially within our own country.

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Cashless Society – Digital Payments, Demonetization, etc.

India’s Central bank digital currency (CBDC) in detail

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: CBDC and applications

Mains level: Read the attached article in detail

digital

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Context

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has launched the first pilot of the retail digital rupee, also known as e₹-R, on December 1, 2022. The digital token that represents legal tender will be issued in the same denominations as paper currency and coins. The RBI’s pilot on the digital rupee will test the robustness of the new system. Let’s understand it in detail.

digital

The first pilot project of retail digital rupee

  • Allowed banks: Initially, only four banks- State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and IDFC First Bank in four cities have been allowed to offer e₹-R. The scope of the pilot will be increased gradually to include more banks, users and locations.
  • Transaction: People will get e₹-R from banks and will be able to make transactions via their digital wallets. The digital rupee can be stored on mobile phones or devices.

What is a Central bank digital currency (CBDC)?

  • Like fiat currency in digital form: CBDC is a legal tender issued by the central bank in digital form. Like rupee notes or coins, which are in physical form. Like fiat currency, it can also be exchanged between people. Simply, put it’s just like rupee (₹) notes but in digital form (e₹). You can also exchange e₹ for physical currency notes.
  • Unlike fiat currency no need to have account: However, unlike fiat currency that’s usually stored in banks and hence their liability, CBDC is a liability on the RBI’s balance sheet. That’s why you don’t necessarily need to have a bank account to own a digital rupee.

Why do we need CBDC?

  • Cost efficient management: CBDC will cut the cost related to physical cash management. India spent ₹4,984.80 crore on printing money in FY22 and ₹4,012.10 crore a year before that. These expenses are borne by people, businesses, banks and the RBI. e₹ cuts all kinds of printing, storage, transportation and replacement and settlement costs. Though the RBI will invest a significant amount in building CBDC infrastructure, subsequent marginal operating costs will be very low.
  • Boost to digital economy and financial inclusion: It’ll fulfil the higher cash requirement of the country. The government will be able to make money available in areas where it’s a challenge to provide physical cash. Also, it’ll boost India’s digital economy, enhance financial inclusion, and make the financial system efficient.
  • People will have money in uncertain times: Since e₹ is the central bank money, in any uncertain situation like COVID-19, it’ll save people’s savings. Banks only insure deposits up to Rs 5 lakh. In case of defaults, people could lose their savings.
  • Multiple saving and transaction options: e₹ will provide you with other options like e-wallets, mobile banking, and UPI to make payments.
  • Much safer payment option: e₹ is a safe central bank instrument, with direct access to the RBI money for payment and settlement. It is an electronic version of cash, whose main use case is retail

digital

Will CBDC replace UPI?

  • Not expected to substitute but supplement payment option: The CBDC-based payment system is not expected to substitute other modes of existing payment options. It will supplement by providing another payment avenue to people.
  • India already has a sound payment system: UPI uses your money deposited with banks but with CBDC, the money becomes the liability of RBI India already has a sound payment system, with payment products like RTGS, NEFT and UPI, etc., coupled with an exponential increase in digital transactions.

No interest on e₹? but why?

  • No interest on digital money: According to the RBI, if it starts paying interest on digital money, it could lead to a massive disintermediation in the financial system, in which banks will lose deposits, and thus hurt their credit creation capacity in the economy.
  • Rationale behind No interest on digital rupee: Banks may be compelled to increase deposit rates, which will increase their costs of funding and decrease net interest income. Ultimately, the cost will be passed on to borrowers.
  • CBDC will be attractive payment option without interest: If there is no interest, CBDC can still be attractive as a medium of payment, even while its attractiveness as a savings instrument diminishes. Also, banks would restrain themselves from distributing CBDCs if they find it as a threat to bank deposits, which can hamper credit flows and the adoption of CBDCs.

digital

How will CBDC be different from crypto?

  • CBDC is Algorithm based unlike crypto mining: The central bank will be issuing CBDCs based on algorithm-driven processes, rather than mining through competitive reward methods. These algorithms will have energy efficiency and environmental friendliness as their core principles, unlike private crypto mining.
  • Less energy consumption unlike crypto: Therefore, issuance and management of CBDCs are expected to have much lesser energy consumption vis-à-vis more energy-intensive processes normally associated with the mining and distribution of private cryptocurrencies.
  • Legal consumer protection: Unlike private cryptos wherein any individual can compete to mine and create the cryptocurrency, only the central bank can issue the CBDC and can simply opt for conversion of the bank’s existing balances to CBDC balances. So, CBDCs will provide the public with the benefits of virtual currencies, while ensuring consumer protection by avoiding the damaging social and economic consequences of private virtual currencies.

Why India needs a digital rupee?

  • Online transactions: India is a leader in digital payments, but cash remains dominant for small-value transactions.
  • High currency in circulation: India has a fairly high currency-to-GDP ratio.
  • Cost of currency management: An official digital currency would reduce the cost of currency management while enabling real-time payments without any inter-bank settlement.

Conclusion

  • e₹-R is a digital token that has real value like rupee notes or coins. CBDC will make transactions and currency exchange smoother, and it’ll boost financial inclusion. The RBI’s pilot on the digital rupee will test the robustness of the new system.

Mains question

Q. What is central bank digital currency? Why do we need CBDC? It is said that digital rupee is different from crypto currency. Discuss.

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Telecom and Postal Sector – Spectrum Allocation, Call Drops, Predatory Pricing, etc

QUAD and the Telecom network security

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Network security collaboration in QUAD countries

QUAD

Context

  • The advent of 5G provides the Quad or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue of the United States (US), Japan, Australia and India, a unique opportunity to demonstrate how democracies can engage in effective technology collaboration.

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Background: The Huawei and QUAD response

  • Huawei’s connection with Chinese Communist Party: Recognising the risks that companies like Huawei, which is connected to the Chinese Communist Party, pose to telecommunications networks, each member country of the Quad has taken steps to ensure secure and resilient access to 5G.
  • Australia’s measure: Australia, for one, banned Huawei from its 5G rollout in 2018 and did the same with ZTE, citing national security concerns.
  • US concerns: For its part, the US has been raising concerns about Huawei since 2012, and doubled-down on its efforts in 2019 by adding Huawei to the Entity List.
  • Japan creating Open RAN: Japan, meanwhile, a long-time leader in the telecommunications space has accelerated its efforts to create ‘Open Radio Access Networks (Open RAN)’, which promote vendor diversification and competition for better solutions.
  • India 5G and conflict with China on border: India took what it called a “step towards the new era” by deploying its first 5G services in select cities in October 2022; it is aiming to extend the network across the country over the next few years. India is unlikely to include Huawei in its networks, given the clash with Chinese forces in Galwan Valley in June 2020 and concerns about vendor trustworthiness.

QUAD

QUAD alignment on securing 5G telecom networks

  • Agreement in first meeting: During the first in-person leaders’ meeting in September 2021, Quad countries agreed to “build trust, integrity, and resilience” into technology ecosystems by having suppliers, vendors, and distributors ensure strong safety and security-by-design processes, and committed to a “fair and open marketplace”.
  • Memorandum of cooperation on 5g suppliers: Later, at the fourth meeting in May 2022, partners signed a New Memorandum of Cooperation on 5G Supplier Diversification and Open RAN, and reaffirmed their desire to “collaborate on the deployment of open and secure telecommunications technologies in the region.”

Why QUAD must cooperate on Network Security?

  • Fast emerging telecom technologies: For one, virtualised (software-based) networks will be the norm in the next 10 years, by which time 6G networks will begin to rollout. Early attention to security issues for emerging telecommunications technologies will help ensure that there is sufficient focus on security in the runup to 5G rollouts.
  • Interoperable software’s need to check: The Quad’s advocacy of Open RAN networks or network architectures that consist of interoperable software run on vendor-neutral hardware is another reason why there is a need to focus on software supply chain and software-based infrastructure security.
  • To ensure the comprehensive network strategy: Critics of Open RAN solutions often point to security concerns to argue against deploying these technologies. A comprehensive 5G security strategy is necessary to ensure trust in these networks.5G networks are critical infrastructure and it is imperative for states to ensure their security.
  • For instance: In 2018, Australian officials were the first to warn the public of the risks posed by untrustworthy vendors on 5G networks. Officials from the other Quad countries have followed suit and, along with key partners such as the European Union and United Kingdom, there is a clear consensus on the fundamental importance of secure and resilient communications networks.

How QUAD will be a key player in Talent Development?

  • Bridging the gap of talent pool: Nations across the globe are suffering from a talent shortage in the technology domain. With heightened demand for high-skilled workers, like-minded nations must cultivate and share their expertise with one another to bridge critical gaps.
  • Quad Fellowship: this, the Quad created the Quad Fellowship, which will support 100 students per year to pursue STEM-related graduate degrees in the United States. This could be an effective way to grow the talent pipeline in a way that fills current and emerging needs.
  • Restructuring programs that can fulfil the current and future demand: Many nations have started to consider changes to immigration policies for high-skilled talent. Australia, for example, has raised its permanent immigration cap by 35,000 for the current fiscal year, and Japan is planning to expand its programs soon.
  • Creative ways of QUAD countries to recruit talent: Shortage of talent pool that all Quad countries are experiencing as they seek creative ways to grow their technology talent pool. Indian companies, for example, are beginning to recruit in rural areas to address significant tech worker shortages that may stymie a growing start-up ecosystem.

QUAD

What QUAD need to do?

  • Ensure close coordination: While these commitments are significant, maintaining momentum requires close coordination of resources and policies. No one country can build resilient, open, and secure telecommunications networks on its own, particularly as countries deploy 5G and think ahead to 6G.
  • Adhering to the goals and principles: To ensure that operationalisation moves forward in line with the Quad’s stated principles and goals, the member countries must work together in four key areas: standard-setting; security; talent development; and vendor diversity.
  • Develop a recruitment framework for telecommunications: Quad countries have an opportunity to set a precedent for other democracies by rethinking what it means to be “qualified” for a position. Companies can look beyond degrees during the hiring process and focus on relevant skills by jointly developing assessment criteria for worker readiness and performance.
  • Incentivise 5G deployment in underserved areas: To ensure that talent is not left out of the candidates’ pool for tech jobs, Quad members can agree to prioritise secure 5G deployment in rural regions. Lack of access to reliable information and communications can be a significant barrier to entering the workforce, and expanding 5G deployment is a critical aspect of broadening the talent pool.
  • Enhance public-private partnerships: As Quad countries build their infrastructure and talent pools at home, they must also think about other countries that only consider cost when choosing Huawei and other untrusted telecom providers. As such, the Quad could leverage public-private partnerships to bolster the presence of trusted companies in new locations. By using coordinated, strategic financial incentives, they will also have an opportunity to train and educate third country governments on the threats posed by untrusted 5G vendors. Consequently, they will contribute to broader network security and resiliency as 5G is more widely deployed.
  • Provide R&D incentives: The governments of the Quad countries should offer incentives to promote ongoing work in hardware, software, and security improvements, specific technologies such as high-band technology and end-to-end network slicing, and research areas including telehealth, energy research, and agriculture. A broad base of enabling technologies and applications would encourage new entrants into the market.

Conclusion

  • Quad countries are well-positioned to accomplish plenty together. Of the many areas where they can progress, securing 5G is particularly promising due to the clearly stated objectives that Quad countries share. The Quad countries have the potential to provide a secure, flexible and open 5G network model to the Indo-Pacific and nations seeking democratic alternatives for their telecommunications infrastructure.

Mains question

Q. It is said that QUAD countries are well-positioned to secure the telecommunication network in the world. Discuss.

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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

Current status of India’s economic growth

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: India's economic growth amidst the global slowdown

growth

Context

  • India’s economic growth slowed to 6.5 percent during the July-September quarter because of a fading low-base effect. For the full year, the economy is expected to grow at 7 percent, with risks tilted to the downside. This implies that the second half of the year (October–March) will see growth slow down to 4.6 percent, again largely due to the base effect and slowing global growth.

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Background: The COVID Pandemic, geopolitical tensions and the Prospects

  • This was the second consecutive quarter with no functional disruption of economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Since October, Google, too, has stopped reporting mobility indicators, which had become one of the most tracked data points for analysts and policymakers since the pandemic struck.
  • This suggests that COVID-19 is unlikely to come in the way of growth for most parts of the world, with China, which is following a zero-COVID policy, being the key exception.

Performance of Indian economy amidst the current global slowdown

  • Spill over effect in India: In an interconnected world, Geopolitical tensions, high and broad-based inflation in many parts of the world and sharp increases in policy rates in developed countries amid a looming recession will continue to confront the global economy. These effects will spill over to India as well, despite its structural strengths.
  • Slow growth of contact- intensive service sector: Growing at 14.7 per cent, contact-intensive services such as trade, hotels and transport continued to be key drivers of the growth momentum in the second quarter. This segment had borne the brunt of the pandemic because of recurrent lockdowns, and is showing a strong rebound because of pent-up demand, a trend that is likely to continue this year.
  • Strong private consumption: Private consumption was quite strong in the second quarter, growing by 9.7 per cent, and now 11.2 per cent above the pre-pandemic level.
  • Rising domestic demand, good for the economy: The resilience of domestic demand will shape the contours of GDP growth in coming quarters as the global growth momentum is anticipated to lose steam. Advanced economies, whose growth is expected to slow sharply next year, account for almost 45 per cent of India’s merchandise exports.
  • Strong and firm Agriculture sector: Despite climate-related disturbances, agriculture surprisingly held its ground in the second quarter.
  • Healthy tax revenue: So far, healthy tax revenue collections have allowed the government to finance its bloated subsidy bill and investments without much pressure on the fiscal deficit. Led by government capex, investments grew 10.4 per cent in the second quarter.
  • Good corporate balance sheets: strong corporate balance sheets not only cushion them against global headwinds but also provide an opportunity to kick-start the investment cycle once uncertainty subsides.

growth

The current status of India’s manufacturing growth

  • Slowed growth: Manufacturing GDP growth slowed rather sharply due to the base effect and margin pressure on manufacturing companies. This is somewhat contradictory to the relatively strong signals from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) which, at 55.9, was in the expansion zone during the July-September quarter, while also being slower than the IIP growth of 1.4 per cent in the same quarter.
  • Support from the government: Currently, manufacturing is finding some support from government spending on infrastructure, particularly in sectors such as steel and cement. The production-linked incentive scheme has incentivised private investment and fast-forwarded manufacturing investments in electronics and pharmaceuticals.
  • Overall demand is low except few high value segments: The festive season-related production and the continued strong demand in the automobile sector (especially in high-value segments), was not enough to prevent an overall slide in manufacturing.

The current status of Agriculture sector

  • Strong and firm Agriculture sector: Despite climate-related disturbances, agriculture surprisingly held its ground in the second quarter. Although rains were 6 per cent above normal this year, they were quite lopsided and led to a drop in rice acreage in some of the rice-growing regions on account of rainfall deficiency and some damage to crops from excess unseasonal rains in October.
  • Inconsistency in rainfall may affect kharif: In fact, October rains were 47 per cent above the long-period average. Rain shortfall in some regions, excess in others, and unseasonal excess rains point towards some hit to kharif production.
  • Rabi crops look in good swing: That said, the prospects for the winter crop (rabi crop), which is largely irrigated, look good owing to favourable soil moisture conditions and healthy reservoir levels. While rabi sowing was initially delayed on account of unseasonal October rains, it is now progressing well, with sown area until November 18 about 7 per cent higher than during the same period last year.
  • Overall agriculture growth prospects: This trend, if sustained, should offset the hit to kharif production to some extent. Overall, we expect agriculture to grow at 3 per cent this year, lower than the decadal average of 3.8 per cent.
  • Food inflation: Abnormal weather has also triggered food inflation, particularly in cereals, which will cool off only when the prospects for rabi crop become clear. While fall in inflation in October was largely due to a high base effect, core inflation continues to be sticky and food inflation risks persists.

growth

Conclusion

  • India’s growth cycle has become well-synchronized with those of advanced economies. So, a sharp slowdown in these countries will spill over to India and the maximum impact of domestic interest rate hikes on growth will play out next fiscal given that monetary policy impacts growth with a lag. The key policy challenge for India will be to manage a soft landing amid the possibility of a hard landing in advanced countries.

Mains question

Q. COVID pandemic disrupted the global economy, moreover the geopolitical tensions are adding to the existing slow growth. In this context, discuss the current status of Indian economy.

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G20 : Economic Cooperation ahead

G20: Setting the World Agenda Through Task Forces

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: G20

Mains level: G20 and India’s presidency, and agendas

G20

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Context

  • India’s G20 presidency began on December 1. It will be driven by the underlying vision of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, best encapsulated by the motto “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. As the main “ideas bank” of the G20, the activities and deliberations of the Think20 (T20) engagement group of the G20 are spread over seven task forces.

Task force on “Macroeconomics, trade, and livelihoods”

  • Create Coherence in monetary and fiscal policy: It has the mandate to make recommendations on coordination within the G20 to create coherence in monetary and fiscal policy, trade, investment, and supply chain resilience.
  • Recover together, recover stronger: The aim is to give further impetus to the initiatives taken by the Indonesian presidency to “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” in the post-pandemic period.
  • Consensus on international trade: With supply chain resilience emerging as a common concern against the backdrop of ineffective WTO mechanisms, the G20 has assumed the mantle as the most significant platform to forge consensus among the top 20 economies on international trade policy.

G20

Task force on “Digital Futures”

  • Digital infrastructure: It will endeavour to build an inclusive digital public infrastructure to ensure affordability and safe access by all.
  • Interoperability of Digital services: It will discuss the universal interoperability of digital services. It will also address issues of digital financial inclusion and skills, both integral to economic growth.

Task force on “LiFE, Resilience, and Values for Wellbeing”

  • Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE): The LiFE initiative aims to put the individual at the centre of the discourse and to sensitise every human being, regardless of nationality and geography. If individuals become more conscious of their lifestyle choices and act more responsibly, it can make a huge difference.
  • Contribution of all: The focus on LiFE is a timely initiative given the fact that the deleterious effects of climate change on the economy and livelihood are felt the most by the vulnerable countries around the world.

G20

Task force on “Green transitions”

  • Refuelling growth: Growth will be the aim of the task force on green transitions as it recommends pathways for a smooth transition to clean energy without compromising on efforts for global economic revival in a post-pandemic world.

Task force on the “Global financial order”

  • Restructuring the financial institution: It will examine the potential for realigning the global financial architecture. The challenge today is to restructure institutions in accordance with contemporary economic needs, including for infrastructure.
  • Finance and resource mobilization: Greater access to development finance and resource mobilisation through innovative methods is of key importance.

Task force on “Accelerating SDGs”

  • Sustainable collaboration: It will explore new pathways to deliver on the 2030 agenda through strengthened and sustainable collaboration.
  • Focus on circular economy to reduce waste: Given the earth’s finite resources, a shift towards a circular economy and deliberate and mindful consumption is likely to reduce waste and help build a virtuous cycle for development.

Task Force on “Reformed Multilateralism”

  • Road map for Multilateralism 2.0: It will seek to create a roadmap for “Multilateralism 2.0”. A targeted reform agenda for key multilateral institutions, whether the United Nations or its affiliated frameworks such as the WHO, WTO and the ILO, must be undertaken.
  • Representative world order: With sincere efforts, the global community can look forward to the birth of a more representative and egalitarian multipolar world order from the chrysalis of the G20.

G20

Conclusion

  • The year ahead is an opportunity for India to share its values to world. Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, the guiding canon for India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Vaccine Maitri, places higher human values above narrow nationalism. It is an approach that is expected to permeate all aspects of India’s G20 Presidency.

Mains Question

Q. What are the different task forces created under India’s G20 presidency? Briefly explain the role of different task forces.

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Food Safety Standards – FSSAI, food fortification, etc.

Combating micronutrient malnutrition through food fortification

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Food fortification and micronutrients

Mains level: Malnutrition in India, Food fortification and concerns

malnutrition

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Context

  • When it comes to nutrition, or more specifically micronutrient malnutrition, there is an urgent need to address the maladies that poor nutrition can inflict on the masses, especially given the diverse populations in India.

What is malnutrition?

  • Malnutrition refers to deficiencies, excesses or imbalances in a person’s intake of energy and/or nutrients.
  • The term malnutrition covers 2 broad groups of conditions.
  • One is ‘undernutrition’ which includes stunting (low height for age), wasting (low weight for height), underweight (low weight for age) and micronutrient deficiencies or insufficiencies (a lack of important vitamins and minerals).
  • The other is overweight, obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases (such as heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and cancer).

What are micronutrients and why they are so important?

  • Micronutrients are vitamins and minerals needed by the body in very small amounts.
  • They perform a range of functions, including enabling the body to produce enzymes, hormones and other substances needed for normal growth and development.
  • However, their impact on a body’s health is critical, and deficiency in any of them can cause severe and even life-threatening conditions. This can lead to reduced educational outcomes, reduced work productivity and increased risk from other diseases
  • Deficiencies in iron, vitamin A and iodine are the most common around the world, particularly in children and pregnant women.
  • Low- and middle-income counties bear the disproportionate burden of micronutrient deficiencies.
  • Many of these deficiencies are preventable through food fortification and supplementation, where needed.

malnutrition

The worrying status of malnutrition in India

  • According to National family Health survey (NFHS): As in NFHS-5 data, every second Indian woman is anaemic, every third child is stunted and malnourished, and every fifth child is wasted.
  • According to an FAO Food Security Report for 2021: India ranks 101 out of 116 countries in the Global Hunger Index 2021, with a 15.3% undernourished population, the highest proportion of stunted children (30%), and wasted children (17.3%).
  • Higher rate of stunting: The picture the Global Nutrition Report 2021 paints is cause for concern, noting that stunting among children in India is significantly higher than the Asian average of 21.8%.

How the countries are tackling malnutrition?

  • Since the 1920s, developed countries and high-income countries have successfully tackled the issue of malnutrition through food fortification.
  • Of late, the low-and middle-income countries, such as India, have pursued food fortification as one of the strategies to tackle micronutrient malnutrition.
  • The health benefits accruing from food fortification have made 80 countries to frame laws for the fortification of cereal flour, and 130 countries with iodised salt, where 13 countries have mandated rice fortification.

malnutrition

What is food fortification?

  • Food fortification is the process of adding nutrients to food.
  • For instance, rice and wheat are fortified with iron, folic acid and vitamin B12, and salt fortified with iron and iodine. Iodised salt has been in use for the past few decades.

malnutrition

How India is tackling malnutrition and anemia?

  • Fortified rice though PDS: Pilot projects on the distribution of fortified rice have been taken up in select States, including Maharashtra (Gadchiroli district) as part of a targeted Public Distribution programme for the masses.
  • Scaling up the distribution through various food security schemes: The programme has been a success in terms of preventing cases of anaemia from 58.9% to 29.5%, within a span of two years, prompting the central government to declare the scaling up of the distribution of fortified rice, the major staple diet of 65% of the population, through the existing platform of social safety nets such as the PDS, ICDS and PM-POSHAN.
  • Cost-effective strategy: Experiences from the different States on the fortified rice project, so far tally with the results of global programmes that use fortified food as a cost-effective strategy.
  • Reduction in anaemia: The study found a promising reduction (29.5%) in the prevalence of anaemia among women, adolescent girls, and children put together in Gadchiroli district.

Case study of Noon meal scheme in Gujarat

  • In Gujarat, an eight-month long study on multiple micronutrient fortified rice intervention for schoolchildren (six-12 years) in 2018-2019, as part of the Midday Meal Scheme, found increased haemoglobin concentration, 10% reduction in anaemia prevalence, and, more importantly, improved average cognitive scores (by 11.3%).

The probable outcome according to NITI Aayog

  • Iron deficiency anaemia is a major public health concern, because it is responsible for 3.6% of disability-adjusted life years or DALYs (years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability) according to the World Health Organization (WHO) i.e., a loss of 47 million DALYs, or years of healthy life lost due to illness, disability, or premature death (2016).
  • According to NITI Aayog (based on WHO meta-analysis on the impact of rice fortification), a rice fortification budget of around ₹2,800 crore per year can save 35% of the total or 16.6 million DALYs per year with no known risk of toxicity.
  • In India, the cost of one DALY lost due to iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is approximately ₹30,000, while the cost of averting an IDA-related DALY is only ₹1,545, resulting in a cost-benefit ratio of 1:18.
  • Rice fortification, which costs less than 1% of the food subsidy bill (2018-19), has the potential to prevent 94.1 million anemia cases, saving ₹8,098 crore over a five-year period.

Concerns over the excess of per capita nutrients intake?

  • Despite the programme’s proven efficacy, activists have expressed concern that excess iron overload from fortified rice has been dangerous for Jharkhand’s tribal population suffering from sickle cell anaemia and thalassaemia.
  • Iron levels in fortified rice range from 28 mg to 42.5 mg, folic acid levels from 75 mcg-125 mcg, and vitamin B12 levels from 0.75 mcg to 1.2 mcg (FSSAI standards).
  • Considering the per capita intake, in a family of three members with a rice consumption of approximately 60 grams per person, the additional intake is 2.45 mg of iron. This in fact compensates our daily losses of iron from the body, which is 1 mg-2 mg per day.

Conclusion

  • Given its proven efficacy and cost-effectiveness, food fortification can help us in reducing micronutrient deficiencies and address overall health benefits. The intervention, carried out with precautions is the key to address the issue of the malnutrition.

Mains question

Q. What is micronutrient malnutrition? Food fortification programmes have made great strides in India, reducing micronutrient deficiencies in recent decades but more efforts are needed. Discuss

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Housing for all – PMAY, etc.

Taking care of Vulnerable Homeless People

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Addressing the issue of homelessness in India

Homeless

Context

  • In India, the northern states face extreme weather in peak winter and summer. Hundreds of homeless people die in winter due to harsh cold conditions and, in summer, due to intolerable heat.

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Why homelessness needs attention?

  • Lack of record: There is an absence of official records enumerating deaths due to homelessness. It undermines the scale of the crisis in the era of statistics and showcases states apathy.
  • Extreme poverty: Homelessness is one of the worst forms of marginalisation as most homeless individuals suffer from malnutrition and extreme poverty.
  • Poor health condition: Access to healthcare facilities and their affordability is also a hurdle. Exorbitant conditions affect mental health in many cases.
  • Vulnerability to violence: Moreover, these conditions also give rise to drug and alcohol consumption. It creates a conducive situation for substance abuse. Such circumstances increase an individual’s vulnerability to violence, especially in the case of women and children.
  • Social castigation: Stigmatisation and social marginalisation compound their precarious situation. In a nutshell, homelessness strips a person from all human rights.

Reasons for homelessness

  • Extreme poverty,
  • Inadequate affordable housing,
  • High levels of inequality,
  • Discrimination,
  • Low wages,
  • High rents,
  • The soaring cost of living

Homeless

What are the estimates of homelessness in India?

  • The 2011 census estimate: Nearly 17.7 lakhs people as houseless, however, the census fails to capture the entire homeless population.
  • Commissioners of Supreme courts: since census are conducted in every 10 years, this data is decadal old. As per the Commissioners of the Supreme Court, 1 percent of the urban population is homeless, making it a population of ~37 lakhs.
  • The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs: Ministry conducted a third-party survey in 2019 to identify the urban homeless. It estimates that approximately 23.93 lakh people are homeless. Population increase and the COVID-19 pandemic have fueled the rise in the homeless population.

Homeless

What is the “Shelter for Urban Homeless (SUH)” Scheme about?

  • The scheme seeks to provide shelter to the urban poor. SUH is a sub-scheme under Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM). The scheme guidelines mention the following provisions:
  • All weather permanent shelters will be open for 24 hours.
  • Permanent community centre for at least 100 people for every 1 lakh population.
  • Each one should cater to 50-100 persons depending on local conditions.

What are the problems in shelter homes?

  • Entry level barrier: Homeless people face entry-level barriers in accessing public shelters due to local issues such as shelter location, entry fees, and identification proof for verification.
  • Non-availability of IDs: Most of the homeless are in the informal economy, lacking necessary documentation like voter ids, Aadhar card, etc. It makes them ‘invisible’ in the eyes of the city administration, and their voice remains unheard.

Homeless

Addressing the issue of homelessness

  • Responsibility of ULBs: The responsibility of accessing the homeless population rests with the urban local bodies. Local authorities need to conduct surveys to assess the homeless population.
  • Decentralisation of funds: State governments must implement the 74th Constitutional Amendment in its true spirit. Its implementation will empower ULBs, which can then bring all the shelter homes under the ambit of SMCs and train them to manage local issues.
  • Ensuring the benefits through ULBs: It can help them to secure benefits and guarantee the convergence of various government schemes, thus also addressing deep-rooted issues like violence and exclusion.

Conclusion

  • The aim of providing housing for all will remain a distant dream if the homeless are not covered. Sheltering the homeless is a crucial link in the overall housing continuum. The state governments need to empower municipal bodies to ensure the decentralisation of governance.

Mains Question

Q. Discuss the problem of Homelessness in India? What are the challenges in addressing the homelessness problems and suggest the solution for it.

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Electoral Reforms In India

Reforming the Election Commission

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Office of Election Commission

Mains level: Issues with the Election Commission

Election Commission

Context

  • A five-judge Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court is examining a bunch of petitions recommending reforms in the process of appointment of members of the Election Commission.

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Electoral reforms and reluctant Governments

  • Long pending reforms: A list of over 20 reform proposals was compiled in 2004. More proposals were added to the list over time and are pending with government.
  • Ineffective model code of conduct: These range from strengthening the Commission’s inherent structure to handling the misuse of muscle and money power during elections, which violate the Model Code of Conduct.
  • Judicial intervention because of reluctant Government: It is hoped that the Bench will also examine electoral reforms suggested to governments by successive Election Commissions over the last two decades or so.

Issue of appointment of election commissioners

  • The Dinesh Goswami Committee in 1990: It is suggested that the Chief Election Commissioner be appointed by the President (read: executive) in consultation with the Chief Justice of India and the Leader of the Opposition (and in case the Leader of the Opposition was not available, then consultation be held with the leader the largest opposition group in the Lok Sabha).
  • Statutory backing for collegium led appointment: It said this process should have statutory backing. Importantly, it applied the same criteria to the appointments of Election Commissioners, along with consultation with the Chief Election Commissioner.
  • The National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution: The commission under Justice M.N. Venkatachalam, said that the Chief Election Commissioner and other Election Commissioners should be appointed on the recommendation of a body comprising the Prime Minister, the Leaders of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha and the Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.
  • The 255th Report of the Law Commission: Chaired by Justice A.P. Shah, said the appointment of all the Election Commissioners should be made by the President in consultation with a three-member collegium consisting of the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition of the Lok Sabha (or the leader of the largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha), and the Chief Justice of India.

Election Commission

What is T.N.Seshan case?

  • Conferred equal power on election commissioners: The T.N.Seshan case conferred equal powers on the Election Commissioners as those enjoyed by the Chief Election Commissioner (referring to the Chief Election Commissioner as primus inter pares, or first among equals).
  • Equal protection was not conferred: Supreme court offered majority power, whereby any two can overrule even the Chief Election Commissioner. Yet, it did not accord the Election Commissioners the same constitutional protection (of removal by impeachment) as is accorded to the Chief Election Commissioner.

Election Commission

Why security of tenure is important for Election Commissioners?

  • Hesitancy to act: Without security of tenure, they may hesitate to act independently, which they otherwise might if they were truly secure.
  • Junior to chief election commission: In the absence of full constitutional security, an Election Commissioner could feel they must keep on the right side of the Chief Election Commissioner.
  • Remain loyal to government: They might also feel they should remain within the ambit favoured by the government.
  • Fear of non-elevation: An Election Commissioner can never be sure whether they will automatically be elevated to the top post because nowhere has elevation been statutorily decreed.

What are the suggested reforms?

  • Same procedure for removal of judge: It is suggested measures to safeguard Election Commissioners from arbitrary removal, in a manner similar to what is accorded to the Chief Election Commissioner, who can only be removed by impeachment, which is by no means easy.
  • Appointment by collegium: While the Chief Election Commissioner should be appointed by a collegium, this must apply equally to the Election Commissioners.
  • Reform by constitutional amendments: The Election Commissioners must now equally be protected from arbitrary removal by a constitutional amendment that would ensure a removal process that currently applies only to the Chief Election Commissioner.

Election Commission

Conclusion

  • Reforms in election commission is absolutely necessary but manner of reforms is debatable. Judiciary’s role is not to reform the institution but to deliver the justice. This might be another case of judicial overreach in legislative domain any reform. Any reform in election commission has to come from legislature.

Mains Question

Q. What are the necessary reforms in Election commission of India? Why security of tenure is important for election commissioners?

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Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

Education as a tool of innovation for the climate change generation.

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Climate change. LiFE movement

Mains level: A climate-resilient education system.

Education

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Context

  • Instead of mirroring a broken development paradigm predicated on an extractive relationship with nature, India can lead with an approach that’s better for both people and the planet. A climate-resilient education system will be essential to realising this opportunity.

Background

  • India’s LiFE mass movement: At COP27, India released its Long-Term Low Emissions and Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). This outlines priorities for carbon-intensive sectors like electricity and industry and transport, and emphasizes the role of a Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) as a mass movement towards sustainable consumption and production.
  • Education is vital: From behavioral shifts of individuals to the re-shaping of markets, education has a vital role in the LiFE movement.
  • Potential of demand side actions: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this could make a significant dent in reducing planet-warming gases, demand-side actions have the potential to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40-70 per cent in 2050.

Education

What are the challenges facing the education sector and children at present?

  • School closures during the Covid pandemic affect productivity: school closures during the pandemic have led to a learning deficit that’s getting reflected in reduced test scores. This will likely impact productivity and per capita income levels in the long term. One year of school closures could reduce GDP levels by anywhere from 1.1 to 4.7 per cent by mid-century, according to a paper by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
  • Hinderance to the economic mobility: The lasting impacts of Covid-19 could hinder economic mobility for a generation of Indians and alter the arithmetic for public finance.
  • Climate change impacts children more: Climate impacts are already disrupting children’s learning and well-being globally. For instance, extreme heat reduces students’ learning levels and causes physiological harm. Schools are temporarily shut down and children’s health is affected due to persistently poor air quality in cities like Delhi.
  • Disasters and displacing families affecting children: Debilitating deluges are permanently displacing families, often leading to children (and disproportionately girls) dropping out of schools and being trafficked or subject to child labour due to distressed household incomes. As these disasters grow more frequent and intense, we must prepare the infrastructure, content, and delivery of the public education system to protect the most vulnerable citizens, many of whom will be climate refugees.
  • Anxiety about the future: The lived experiences of climate-induced disasters and anxiety about the future are causing despair and dread among young people. This is compounded by digital platforms and news cycles that don’t linger long enough to make sense of challenges or build a widespread understanding of breakthroughs like the significant reductions in the costs of renewable energy.

Education

How can the climate education system be used to both prevent crisis and create opportunity?

  • Creating a strong and inclusive climate-resilient education system at national level: At a national level, a strong enabling framework for a climate-resilient education system shall cover matters from curricula to nutrition to school building codes in a climate-changed world. With its scale and reach, the public school system is not only a source of learning but also shelter, clothing, food, and community for millions.
  • Programs in states shall be implemented according to the local demands: Design and implementation in states and districts should be shaped by existing local needs and anticipated climate risks. This could involve infrastructure investments so school buildings can double up as emergency shelters in cyclone-prone areas and capacity additions so government schools in mega-cities that are destinations for climate migrants can integrate and empower children
  • Emphasize should be on social and emotional learning: Students’ mental health needs should be served through an empathic expansion and an emphasis on social and emotional learning. Across the board, children should be able to access clean water and nutritious food.
  • Technical curriculum with indigenous knowledge shall be applied: Curricula can be infused with scientific and technical know-how alongside indigenous and local knowledge. In pockets, there are already innovative initiatives under-way where non-government organisations are adding tremendous value through contextualisation and close work with communities.
  • Integrating biodiversity conservation learning process: Students should be taught about the potential of integrating biodiversity conservation with regenerative agriculture. Youth must be empowered and encourages to take civic and climate actions from waste management to recycle, to lake restorations and to make their city more liveable.
  • Fostering critical thinking: The cross-cutting imperative should be to foster critical thinking instead of rote learning so that the next generation can embrace complexity and make informed choices.

Education

Way ahead

  • There is a need for climate education across society rather than simply at the primary and secondary levels.
  • There is need to retrain workers in industries that have a future in a green economy.
  • So is the need to priorities technical training in colleges and universities so we can rapidly accelerate our decarbonization pathway.

Conclusion

  • We can’t afford to be narrowly focusing on technical training for the innovation, research, and development of climate technologies. Rather, we should develop strong analytical capabilities and holistic thinking about societal transformations and how new technologies will be embedded in communities. As Elizabeth Kolbert, the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist put it, “the ‘invisible hand’ always grasps for more”.

Mains question

Q. Climate change is rapidly altering the environment and economy, especially affecting children. In this light, Climate resilient education systems can be used to prevent crises and create opportunities. Discuss.

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Waste Management – SWM Rules, EWM Rules, etc

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: EnviStats, Hazardous effects of Solid Waste on environment and Health

Mains level: Municipal Solid Waste, rules and management

Solid Waste

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Context

  • A recent report titled ‘EnviStats India 2022’, published by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has highlighted the herculean challenge of disposing of the solid waste generated by the States without harming the environment.

What is the report all about?

  • Source and destination of solid waste: By taking Delhi as an example, the report has calculated the “physical supply and use tables” to capture the source and destination of all types of solid waste in the capital city.
  • Data from government sources: Data were collected from all the five Urban Local Bodies and the Delhi Pollution Control Committee pertaining to 2020-21.

Case study of Delhi

  • Over 40 lakh tonnes of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW): Municipal solid waste includes garbage (highly decomposable material such as food), trash (bulky items such as tree branches or old appliances), and rubbish (slowly decomposing items such as paper, glass, or metal).
  • Households are largest contributors: According to the report, about 85% of MSW in Delhi was generated by households and 15% by shops and restaurants.
  • High C & D waste: That year, over 13 lakh tonnes of construction and demolition waste were also generated in the city along with over 5.4 lakh tonnes of plastic waste, about 11 thousand tonnes of bio-medical waste, and 610 tonnes of e-waste.
  • Hazardous waste: Delhi also generated 3,239 tonnes of hazardous waste. Hazardous waste is typically sludge from factories, industrial manufacturing process wastes and batteries.

How the waste is disposed-off?

  • Largest part went to landfills: Half the municipal solid waste went to landfills and the other half was recycled and reused.
  • Incineration: About 35% of bio-medical waste was incinerated, while the entire share of construction and demolition waste was recycled. While bio-medical waste is incinerated, the ash generated after the process is sent to the landfills.
  • No information on E-waste: It is not known how e-waste is disposed of as there is no treatment and disposal facility available in Delhi for e-waste.
  • Plastic into energy: According to the report, of the 610 tonnes of e-waste generated in 2020-21, refurbish collector collected 28.6 tonnes and bulk consumers collected the rest. Notably, about 22% of plastic waste is converted into energy, while 37% is taken to landfills.

Solid Waste

How Municipal solid waste is taken care in others states of India?

  • Amount of waste processed: Across India, 68% of the MSW generated is processed. Himachal Pradesh leads the list with 98% of MSW getting processed, followed by Chhattisgarh at 93%.
  • West Bengal poor performer: In contrast, West Bengal processed only 9%. These data were of November 2020. In 2018-19, an average of 2.5 tonnes of plastic was generated per 1,000 population in India.
  • How biomedical waste is treated: Across India, 87% of biomedical waste was treated. Seventeen States and five Union Territories have already achieved 100% bio-medical waste treatment, while in Bihar and Chhattisgarh just 29% of it got treated, respectively. Close to 614 tonnes of biomedical waste was generated per day in India in 2018.
  • Hazardous waste is poorly treated: Across India, only 45% of the hazardous waste generated was recycled/utilised. Most States lag in this indicator. Of the 30 States analysed, in 13, less than 50% was recycled/utilised; and in 22 of them, less than 75% was recycled/utilised. These data pertain to the 2018-19 period. The hazardous waste generated in the country per 1,000 population was 8.09 metric tonnes in 2018.

Solid Waste

Municipal solid waste management rules 2016

  • Segregation at source: The new rules have mandated the source segregation of waste in order to channelize the waste to wealth by recovery, reuse and recycle. Waste generators would now have to now segregate waste into three streams- Biodegradables, Dry (Plastic, Paper, metal, Wood, etc.) and Domestic Hazardous waste (diapers, napkins, mosquito repellents, cleaning agents etc.) before handing it over to the collector.
  • Collection and disposal of sanitary waste: The manufacturers or brand owners of sanitary napkins are responsible for awareness for proper disposal of such waste by the generator and shall provide a pouch or wrapper for disposal of each napkin or diapers along with the packet of their sanitary products.
  • Collect Back scheme for packaging waste: As per the rules, brand owners who sale or market their products in packaging material which are non‐biodegradable, should put in place a system to collect back the packaging waste generated due to their production.
  • User fees for collection: The new rules have given power to the local bodies across India to decide the user fees. Municipal authorities will levy user fees for collection, disposal and processing from bulk generators.
  • Waste processing and treatment: It has been advised that the bio-degradable waste should be processed, treated and disposed of through composting or bio-methanation within the premises as far as possible and the residual waste shall be given to the waste collectors or agency as directed by the local authority.

Conclusion

  • EnviStats India 2022 report highlights the positive progress by India in solid waste management. However, challenges still persist, hazardous and e- waste, Landfills and incineration need to be reduced significantly which are causing the pollution.

Mains Question

Q. Briefly discuss the solid waste management rule 2016. Analyse the performance of various state on SWM based on ‘EnviStats India 2022’ report.

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Women empowerment issues – Jobs,Reservation and education

Removing the Menopause taboo

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Menopause

Mains level: Menopausal transition, the taboo and the work ethics

Menopause

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Context

  • Recent announcement by the National Health Services (NHS) in the UK that menopausal women on their staff will be able to work out of the home should their symptoms require it, is about path-finding and working the middle ground in the workplace.
  • NHS chief Amanda Pritchard said that other employers should follow suit to help middle-aged women “thrive” at work and those “silently suffering” should not be expected to “grin and bear it.”

Background: A menopausal taboo questions women’s potential?

  • The context opening up the conversation at least: If nothing, such a move has at least been a conversation starter about what has been so far a taboo in the workplace and a reason to hive off women than allow them ease of thriving.
  • Misconception that women may not work efficiently: Yet, just like pregnancy, the end of a woman’s reproductive cycle is seen as her losing energy, drive, desire, stamina, excitement and capability, in short, a cliff-jumping drop of her value in wisdom and experience.
  • On the contrary most women do best in this phase: Ironically, this phase, between the mid-40s to the mid-50s, is where you would find most women reaching the top, having battled biases of motherhood, leaving no questions unanswered on their competence and commitment.
  • Yet questions raised about her worth and never about her comfort: When a woman employee crosses the age bar, she has to prove her worth all over again. Is she as good, is she capable of thinking afresh, can she pull long hours? It is never about “is she comfortable?” Sadly, her body of work matters little.
  • Constant pressure on women to prove the worth forces to overlook themselves: And it is this constant pressure to feed expectations that forces even confident women to overwork themselves to stay relevant despite those painful bouts of endometriosis, heavy bleeding, hot flushes, insomnia, fatigue, anxiety, hypertension and palpitations. All of these are terribly debilitating but manageable with a little breathing space.

What is menopause?

  • Menopause is a point in time 12 months after a woman’s last period.
  • Menopausal transition may commonly be referred to as “menopause,” true menopause doesn’t happen until one year after a woman’s final menstrual period.

Menopause

Menopausal transition

  • The years leading up to that point, when women may have changes in their monthly cycles, hot flashes, or other symptoms, are called the menopausal transition or perimenopause.
  • The menopausal transition most often begins between ages 45 and 55.
  • It usually lasts about seven years but can be as long as 14 years.The duration can depend on lifestyle factors such as smoking, age it begins, and race and ethnicity.
  • During perimenopause, the body’s production of estrogen and progesterone, two hormones made by the ovaries, varies greatly.
  • Estrogen is used by many parts of a woman’s body. As levels of estrogen decrease, one could have various symptoms. Many women experience mild symptoms that can be treated by lifestyle changes. Some women don’t require any treatment at all.

Did you know?

  • According to the Harvard Medical School, a post-menopausal woman’s symptoms of a heart attack are “different from a man’s and she’s much more likely than a man to die within a year of having a heart attack.
  • Women also don’t seem to fare as well as men do after taking clot-busting drugs or undergoing certain heart-related medical procedures.”

What are the signs and symptoms of menopause?

  • Change in your period: Women periods may no longer be regular. They may be shorter or last longer. Bleeding may be more or less than usual.
  • Hot flashes: Many women have hot flashes, which can last for many years after menopause. They may be related to changing estrogen levels. A hot flash is a sudden feeling of heat in the upper part or all of the body.
  • Disturbed Sleep: Around midlife, some women start having trouble getting a good night’s sleep.
  • Vaginal health and sexuality: After menopause, the vagina may become drier, which can make sexual intercourse uncomfortable. Women may find that the feelings about sex are changing.
  • Mood changes: Women might feel moodier or more irritable around the time of menopause. Scientists don’t know why this happens. It’s possible that stress, family changes such as growing children or aging parents, a history of depression, or feeling tired could be causing these mood changes.
  • Body features may alter: The body begins to use energy differently, fat cells change, and women may gain weight more easily. Women might have memory problems as well as joints and muscles could feel stiff and achy.

Menopause

How menopause affects Women health?

  • Severe and unexpected physiological challenges: As the hormone oestrogen dips, it pushes up bad cholesterol or LDL levels, raising their cardiac risk more than men. They even have higher concentrations of total cholesterol than men.
  • Psychological challenges: Strangely even women in the menopausal period are not concerned about their life risks as they get caught in the vanity trap and worry more about issues related to their body image, sexuality and self-esteem. Some rush into Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT), which is not quite the elixir of youth, and often has deadly side effects like uterine and breast cancer. These elevated risk factors, however, can be reduced if women were to be less stressed about tiring out their bodies to prove a point.

The conversation over the menopause

  • In India: However, in India, where motherhood is seen as a major career impediment for women, menopause is a far cry, often bottled up in hushed conversations among women in the office loo.
  • Progressive step in UK: The UK Parliament commissioned a survey that showed how one in three women were missing work due to menopause.
  • Italy and Australia: Italy and Australia are debating about including menopause in work ethics norms.
  • EU parliament: Recently, the EU Parliament put out a statement, saying, “The failure to address menopause as a workplace issue is increasingly leading to insufficient protection of female workers and the early exit of women from labour markets, and thereby increasing the risk of women’s economic dependence, poverty and social exclusion, contributing to the loss of women’s knowledge, skills and experience, and leading to significant economic losses.”

Menopause

Conclusion

  • Considering that women will go through this biological phase at least for eight years in their work life, a little sensitivity to their concerns would matter more than a debate on whether they should be allowed extra benefits.

Mains Question

Q. What is menopausal transition? Menopause at work place often seen as taboo to talk, In this background, highlight the changes taking place.

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Genetically Modified (GM) crops – cotton, mustards, etc.

Analyzing the approval of DMH-11

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: GM mustard

Mains level: Herbicide tolerant GM crops and the GM mustard debate

DMH-11

Context

  • Concerns regarding the recent recommendation for approval for the environmental release of genetically engineered (GE) mustard (“DMH-11 hybrid”) in India. The recommendation was made by the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC).

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What is Dhara Mustard hybrid (DMH-11)?

  • DMH-11 is a hybrid variant of mustard developed by researchers at The Centre for Genetic Manipulation of Crop Plants, at the University of Delhi.
  • It is a hybrid variant that was developed without transgenic technology.
  • DMH-11 is a result of a cross between two varieties: Varuna and Early Heera-2. Such a cross wouldn’t have happened naturally and was done after introducing genes from two soil bacterium called barnase and barstar.
  • The result is DMH-11 (where 11 refers to the number of generations after which desirable traits manifest) that not only has better yield but is also fertile. DMH-11 is a transgenic crop because it uses foreign genes from a different species.

DMH-11

What are the concerns?

  • Not sufficient consideration: The potentially harmful long-term ecological and economic consequences of releasing DMH-11 have not received sufficient consideration.
  • Details of trials not made public: Details of the mandatory trials to ensure food and environmental safety which is a prerequisite before environmental release have not been made public.
  • A long-term assessment is yet to be done: a detailed long-term assessment of the potential social and economic benefits of using DMH-11, vis-à-vis its potential drawbacks, remains to be made. Without minimizing the importance of the last two aspects, the present note is restricted to highlighting the first aspect.

DMH-11

Examining the central Feature of DMH-11 

  • Gene for herbicide resistance (HT): A central feature of DMH-11 is that it carries a gene for herbicide resistance (also termed herbicide tolerance or HT). This fact has not received appropriate consideration.
  • Negatives outcomes: The deployment of herbicide-resistant or HT crops has been accompanied by deleterious outcomes in several places including the US, Australia, and Canada (so-called developed countries) as well as Argentina (a developing country).
  • Consequences of herbicide resistant weeds: The most well-established harmful consequence has been the spread of herbicide-resistant weeds across large tracts of agricultural land, which can spell disaster for the normal crop.

Critical and technical analysis of DMH-11

  • On the use of Basta herbicide: The developers of DMH-11 have stated in their food and environmental safety assessment submission of 2016 that “Although GE mustard hybrid DMH-11 contains the bar gene conferring resistance to the herbicide Basta (phosphinothricin), Basta herbicide is required to be used only by seed producer for hybrid seed production (and) farmers are not required to spray Basta in the hybrid GE DMH-11 for weed control”.
  • Certain conditions placed by GEAC for environmental release of DMH-11:
  • The GEAC in its recommendation made on October 18 for environmental release of DMH-11 has accepted this position and also placed certain conditions for environmental release.
  1. Usage only under control: Usage of any formulation of herbicide is recommended only under controlled and specified conditions exclusively for hybrid seed production.
  2. Requires necessary permission: Usage of any formulation of herbicide is not permitted for cultivation in the farmer’s field under any situation and such use would require the necessary permission as per procedures and protocols of safety assessment of insecticides/herbicides by CIB&RC (Central Insecticide Board and Registration Committee).”
  • Knowing the facts GEAC ignoring the reports: In other words, GEAC assumes that farmers will use DMH-11 without adding herbicideeven though they know that it carries a gene for herbicide resistance. It ignores the known fact that there have been numerous recent reports in the Indian media of the illegal use of unapproved herbicide-resistant crops, which has been brought to the notice of the government.
  • Registers usage on a crop-wise basis is not enough: GEAC has considered the possible use of herbicide with DMH-11 merely as a matter of herbicide usage and referred its approval to the CIB&RC, which registers usage of herbicides on a crop-wise basis. It is not enough for GEAC to merely refer it for chemical registration since the CIB&RC is not the competent body for recommending approval of GM crops.
  • HT technology is different from conventional herbicides:
  1. On multiple counts, HT technology is qualitatively different from the conventional use of herbicides.
  2. They include the levels of herbicide used, which is much higher than in conventional use; its effect on the crop which is engineered to be resistant to the herbicide and thereby to tolerate much higher levels of herbicide and its agro-ecological impact including on agricultural biodiversity and insect populations.
  3. The scope of issues connected to use of herbicide with a herbicide-resistant crop places it squarely within the purview of GM regulation (that is, GEAC).

Remarks: Developers Intent may not define how it is likely to be used

  • Notwithstanding the statement of the developers and its implicit acceptance by GEAC, DMH-11 does meet the definition of an HT crop.
  • The answers to two questions show this. Is DMH-11 herbicide tolerant? Yes. Is it a crop? Yes.
  • The intent of the developer on how it is meant to be used does not determine how it is actually likely to be used, especially if that usage appears to confer obvious advantages.
  • HT technology involves the use of a herbicide in far higher amounts than conventional herbicide treatments, high enough to kill all weeds in the field, leaving only the engineered crop to grow. Thereby, it replaces all other weed control measures.

Conclusion

  • HT may be effective for a few years. But basic evolutionary considerations, as well as experience in other countries, shows that it imposes strong selective pressure for resistant weeds to emerge. They invariably do so in the course of time and spread rapidly. HT offers short-term benefits at the cost of long-term sustainability. Long term assessment is necessary before clearing its way.

Mains Question

Q. GM mustard is often in the news recently. Discuss the advantages and raised concerns over the usage of this new hybrid variety.

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Poverty Eradication – Definition, Debates, etc.

Multi-Dimensional Poverty (MPI) Estimation

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: MPI

Mains level: MPI estimation and the concerned debate

MPI

Context

  • There is debate going on over Multi-dimensional Poverty (MPI) estimation and Covid impact on poverty. Various experts are arguing that poverty decline faster during NDA years than UPA years.

How MPI is estimated as per oxford poverty and human development initiative (OPHD)?

  • Two set of estimates: There are two sets of poverty estimates provided by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) that compile these data across countries, primarily from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
  • Uncensored estimate: The first are uncensored estimates for individual indicators, which correspond to a simple question regarding whether a household is deprived (poor) in a given indicator for example, nutrition.
  • Censored estimate: Alternatively, one can obtain an indicator-specific censored poverty estimate via a two-stage process. Censored data helps shift the focus onto those who have been (multidimensionally) identified as poor. A higher MPI suggests greater intensity of deprivation while a higher censored poverty rate is an important signal to policymakers to redirect policy focus.

Poverty

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Two stage process under censored estimates?

  • Multidimensionally poor: The first stage estimates the population that is multidimensionally poor.
  • Poor on each indicator: The second stage estimates the population that is poor in each indicator for the multi-dimensionally (MP) poor. For example, in 2005-06, the MP poor were 55.1 per cent; uncensored nutritionally poor were 57.3 per cent; and 44.3 per cent were censored nutritionally poor.
  • Poor in both categories: In other words, close to 80 per cent of the nutritionally deprived are also multidimensionally poor. For the DHS India survey years, censored estimates are used.

Advantage of using censored estimates

  • No mismatch in absolute and indicator specific poor: For some individual indicators such as assets, some households may be considered as deprived (poor) even as they are relatively better off in other areas such as nutrition, sanitation, etc.
  • Interlinkages between poverty indicators: Other advantage of a censored approach is that it allows the capture of interlinkages between several poverty indicators. For example, environmental enteropathy is known to have a key role in nutrition absorption in children. Therefore, investments made towards providing sanitation facilities and piped water connections will have an impact on nutritional absorption.

MPI

What latest data on MPI says?

  • Annual improvement in health and education: Annual pace of improvement in the health, education and living standards indicators during 2005-15: 7.3, 10.0 and 9.6 per cent respectively. In the NDA years: 11, 8.4 and an outsized 17.2 per cent annual gain in living standards.
  • Efficient redistribution of resources: An efficient redistribution combined with direct fiscal resources targeted specifically to reduce deprivation across individual indicators.
  • Inclusive growth: The inclusive growth belief was that period I would show a greater improvement because the dominant component of poverty decline, growth in per capita consumption, was about 0.8 percentage point higher in period I (annual 3.8 per cent increase vs. 3 per cent in period II).
  • Faster poverty decline: The pace of MPI index decline was almost twice the pace in period II relative to period I! This result is strongly indicative of considerably more inclusive (and more efficient and less corrupt) growth in period II compared to period I.
  • Poor performance on some indicators: For only four indicators is the rate of uncensored poverty decline lower in period II. Assets and school attendance are lower in period II for both uncensored and censored poverty. Incidentally, school attendance improvement is expected to be lower as one approaches 100 per cent enrolment, the pace of change from 20 to 25 per cent enrolment is 25 per cent versus a pace of only 1 per cent when enrolment increases from 95 to 96 per cent.

MPI

Conclusion

  • Poverty estimation debate will continue among the experts. Government should solely focus on poverty reduction policies. Present priority should be reducing the Covid induced poverty.

Mains Question

Q. What is the censored and uncensored poverty estimates? Analyse the recent data on multi-dimensional poverty index (MPI) in India?

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Women Safety Issues – Marital Rape, Domestic Violence, Swadhar, Nirbhaya Fund, etc.

Domestic violence: Why women choose to remain silent?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Domestic violence and the laws in protection of women

Domestic violence

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Context

  • Just ahead of the International Day for Elimination of All Forms of Violence against Women (November 25), the brutal murder and mutilation of a young woman by her partner has drawn attention to intimate partner violence, also recognized under the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act 2005 (PWDVA) as a kind of domestic violence.

Background

  • Due to prevalence of patriarchy women have been discriminated not only in India but in most parts of the world.
  • According to The United Nations, one out of every three women experience domestic violence. The same UN report suggests that the most dangerous place for women is their home.
  • Gender equality and women’s empowerment are essential for the development and well-being of families, communities and nations.

Domestic Violence

  • Domestic violence is any pattern of behavior that is used to gain or maintain power and control over an intimate partner. It encompasses all physical, sexual, emotional, economic and psychological actions or threats of actions that influence another person.

Domestic violence can include the following

  • Physical violence: Use of Physical force or hurting or trying to hurt a partner .it also includes denying medical care.
  • Sexual violence: Forcing a partner to take part in a sex act when the partner does not consent.
  • Psychological violence: Psychological violence involves causing fear, threatening physical harm or forcing isolation from friends, family, school or work.
  • Economic violence: Making or attempting to make a person financially dependent by maintaining total control over financial resources.
  • Emotional violence: Undermining a person’s sense of self-worth through constant criticism; belittling one’s abilities; verbal abuse. 

Domestic violence

Analysis of Domestic violence cases and protection of women in India

  • Punishable offence: Domestic violence is a punishable offence under Indian law. It is a violation of human rights.
  • According to NFHS-5: yet, National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) reveals that we live in a society where violence against women persists to such an extent that 32% of ever-married women aged 18-49 years have ever experienced emotional, physical, or sexual violence committed by their husband, with more rural than urban women reporting experiences of domestic violence.
  • Protection of women from domestic violence Act 2005: Over 17 years ago the PWDVA, a progressive legislation, was passed, promising a joined-up approach, involving civil and criminal protections, to support and protect women from violence within the household, not just from husbands.
  • Unable to access the law: Despite the law existing on paper, women are still largely unable to access the law in practice. Its promise and provisions are unevenly implemented, unavailable and out of reach for most Indian women.
  • Very less percentage of women who seek help: The most disheartening reality is that despite almost a third of women being subject to domestic violence, the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) reports that only 14% of women who have experienced domestic violence have ever sought help; and this number is much lower in the rural areas.
  • Despite of multiple laws, most women choose not to seek help: In a country where domestic violence is a crime, where there are multiple laws explicitly designed to protect women against violence, most women survivors of domestic violence never seek help.

Domestic violence

An interesting first-hand case study on “why women choose to remain silent”?

  • Subject: Research in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu aims to better understand ‘help seeking’ and the everyday realities, obstacles, prejudices and fears that women experience around sharing and reporting experiences of violence.
  • Questions: Simple and well-meaning questions, “Why didn’t you leave earlier?” “Why didn’t you tell someone about the violence earlier?”
  • Thoughts and Response:
  1. Women were hopeful that things would change, that they could change their husband’s behaviour, that he would listen to them.
  2. Crucially women did not want to be a ‘burden’ on others, in particular their families. ‘My mother has a lot of worries, she has her own life so I didn’t want to add to her own worries, with mine.’
  3. By naming the violence they experienced, women believed that they would become ‘a problem’ or a source of ‘tension’ for their families, in bringing them shame and dishonor, irrespective of the survivor’s level of education, caste, or class.
  4. For migrant women, transpeople or those with several sisters, or ill, older or deceased parents, it was felt even more acutely that the perpetrator’s violence was their individual responsibility to manage.

Domestic violence

Findings of the case study on seeking help

  • Majority of parents asks to accommodate: The first group of women mainly turned to their parents who, in a majority of cases, insisted on their daughter preserving the family environment which they should do by ‘adjusting’ to, or accommodating their husband’s (and his family’s) needs better.
  • Minority cases where daughters’ welfare is prioritized: In a minority of cases, the daughter’s welfare was prioritized over the well-being of the ‘the family’ and steps were taken to help mediate or exit the relationship, and much more infrequently approach the police and lawyers.
  • Accepted as patriarchal norm mostly by women themselves: So ingrained are social norms about gender inequality that NFHS-5 data reports that women are more likely than men to justify a scenario in which it is acceptable for a husband to beat or hit his wife.
  • Sharing experience gives relief: For instance, one interviewee explained, ‘the way we are conditioned, it was hard to complain about any suffering’. Though survivors who did (finally) confide in relatives and friends about domestic violence described feeling a ‘sense of a relief’ and that a ‘burden had been lifted’, giving them new ‘hope’ that things might change.
  • Confession is powerful step, seek for help comes with mixed emotions: Whilst sharing experiences of violence was an incredibly powerful step for women, actually transforming their violent domestic experiences and accessing services and support provided by the state and non-state actors proved to be an arduous roller coaster of emotions, promises, uncertainty, fear and disappointment.
  • Financial dependence stops women form accessing legal justice: With few safe houses across India, the simple reality was that many women have nowhere else to go, and access to legal justice through the courts was a material possibility only for women with independent wealth and connections or those supported by specialist non-governmental organizations. So, for many survivors, transforming their situation depended on securing their economic self-sufficiency by pursuing new skills and livelihood opportunities.

Role of the police

  • Police were the part of problem than the solution: Women who reported experiences of violence to the police were cynical about the outcome. Though a small minority had positive experiences, for the majority of those we interviewed, the police were part of the problem rather than a solution to violence.
  • Police more likely to send women back to reconcile: Across the States, that the police were more likely to send women back to violent households to reconcile with the perpetrator or use violence against perpetrators as a deterrent instead of filing an official complaint or connecting women to protection officers and other service providers, as the PWDVA outlines they should.
  • Absence and under resourced Protection officers: Several States are yet to implement Protection officers. And where they are in post, they are under resourced, under-skilled and overworked, making their remit impossible.

Domestic violence

Conclusion

  • Even whilst its legislature recognizes that domestic violence is a crime, and civil remedies exist through protection orders, managing the fallout of domestic violence is still being subcontracted to survivors and the family. That is the biggest crime being committed against women today. Women empowerment without social justice is a futile exercise, State must take appropriate social empowerment steps in this direction.

Mains question

Q. What is the status of women facing domestic violence in India? Despite many laws and a country where domestic violence is a crime, most women prefer to remain silent and do not seek help. Discuss.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Understanding the “China’s BRICS” game

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: China BRICS strategy, Role of India

BRICS

Context

  • At the 14thLeaders’ Meeting of the BRICS, held virtually in June 2022, China dwelt on the issue of expanding the group beyond its five existing members to include more emerging economies. At a time when China-India relations are at a low point, the proposal has raised concerns in New Delhi. As India deliberates its stance on this contentious issue, it is important to understand China’s approach towards BRICS.

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BRICS

All you need to know about BRICS

  • BRICS is an acronym for the grouping of the world’s leading emerging economies, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
  • Jim O’Neill, a British economist, coined the term ‘BRIC’ to describe the four emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He made a case for BRIC on the basis of econometric analyses projecting that the four economies would individually and collectively occupy far greater economic space and become among the world’s largest economies.
  • The importance of BRICS is self-evident: It represents 42% of the world’s population, 30% of the land area, 24% of global GDP and 16% of international trade.
  • The five BRICS countries are also members of G-20.

BRICS for China

  • Strategy of multiple engagements: For China, it is the grand strategy that is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that threads its many engagements: BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) where it is not directly a member, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
  • Projecting the connection between BRICS and BRI: BRICS as an entity, has not signed any memorandum of cooperation with the BRI, In Chinese strategic thinking, the BRI and BRICS are deeply connected.
  • Repeated assertion by Xi Jinping: President Xi Jinping himself has harped on this notion in his speeches on multiple occasions, such as the 9th BRICS Business Forum in September 2017 and the 11th BRICS Leaders’ Meeting in November 2019. In his speech he stated that China would cooperate with other multilateral development institutions such as the BRICS New Development Bank to support BRI and jointly formulate guidelines to finance development projects. 

BRICS

China’s Approach towards BRICS: The Link with BRI

  • Policy of Five connectivities: Chinese scholars are of the opinion that the “five connectivities” in policy, infrastructure, trade, finance, and people-to-people constitute the common way forward for both the BRI and BRICS.
  • Economic development strategy: China has been working towards strengthening the interconnection of economic development strategies of different states along the BRI, particularly the BRICS nations, aligning and integrating BRI and BRICS infrastructure projects, ensuring unimpeded trade, pursuing multiple forms of cooperation.
  • China’s Silk Road Economic Belt and EEU: The most significant progress made so far by China in this regard has been the official docking between China’s Silk Road Economic Belt (the land part of the BRI) and the EEU (where Russia is the dominant player) in May 2015.
  • Infrastructure models that China is emphasising: A high-speed railway project from Moscow to Kazan is being constructed under this strategic cooperation, funded by the BRICS New Development Bank. This is the model that China wants to replicate with other BRICS nations as well. In December 2015, South Africa and China signed a memorandum of understanding on jointly promoting the construction of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road.”

Why China needs BRICS to promote the BRI?

  • To avoid direct conflicts: Chinese policymakers believe that although China is the main proponent of the BRI, it needs to avoid both strategic overdraft and direct conflicts with the pillars of the present international order while implementing the strategy.
  • To use resources effectively: To improve efficiency in the use of funds and other resources, China, it is argued, should shift from individually leading specific projects to constructing and leading various international institutions and exerting itself through institutional norms.
  • Strategic alignment and ambition to lead: President Xi emphasised this as well at the ‘Belt and Road’ International Cooperation Summit Forum in May 2017, saying that the BRI “is not about starting from scratch and reinventing the wheel, but realising strategic alignment and (reaping) complementary advantages (of various existing or new mechanisms).”
  • Dominating the financial mechanism through BRI partnership: Chinese scholars point out that all the BRICS countries have already been made part of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), one of China’s key financing mechanisms for the BRI. Further, given China’s clear dominance in the New Development Bank (NDB), Contingency Reserve Fund (CRA), the AIIB, as well as Silk Road Fund, it is only imperative for it to use these institutions to incentivise more BRICS countries to participate in the BRI, and to lay the foundation of a global financial system for the Chinese currency (RMB) trade settlement.
  • Creating an acceptable front: China is aware that the BRI has provoked extensive discussion around the world. It has been interpreted differently by different countries and has even drawn suspicion and caution in certain quarters. China is aware that to implement the BRI smoothly, it needs an additional front that is less controversial and more acceptable to the international community at large, and in particular, to developing countries.

BRICS

What are the concerns for India?

  • Promoting priorities in contrast: China prioritises the ‘BRICS + Asia’ cooperation mechanism – ‘BRICS + ASEAN’ on the one hand, and ‘BRICS + Bay of Bengal’ on the other, thereby integrating BRICS more closely with the Southeast Asian countries as well as with the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) nations.
  • Aligning with BIMSTEC to counter India’s resistance to BRI: The aligning with BIMSTEC is particularly aimed at countering India’s reticence to endorse the BRI, while seeking its cooperation through either coercion (i.e., using other member states of the said groupings as bargaining chips to pressure India to cooperate) or deception (i.e., temporarily ignoring the BRI banner).
  • Using BRICS at its advantage: China wants to use the BRICS platform to establish links and influence policies of these key regional organisations, including the African Union in Africa, the Arab League in West Asia, the SCO in Central Asia, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in South Asia, and ASEAN in Southeast Asia.
  • Ambition to formulate the world order in its own way: It wants BRICS, especially the BRICS New Development Bank, to strengthen cooperation with the IMF, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization. This will enable China, through BRICS, to strengthen its international leadership, play a bigger role in the formulation of international rules, and influence the overall global governance mechanism.

Conclusion

  • As China-US rivalry intensifies and the BRI faces a plethora of challenges, BRICS is increasingly gaining significance for China. Within the grouping, China sees itself as the ‘core’ of BRICS, while India as its weakest link.
  • India needs to accurately grasp the geopolitical shifts taking place within BRICS and deftly navigate the complex dynamics between the member states to safeguard its own interests within the grouping and avoid being drawn passively into China’s Great Game.

Mains Question

Q. China has focused on expanding the BRICS group to achieve its own ambitions. Discuss the significance of BRICS for China and India’s concerns.

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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

Assessing The Impact of Falling Rupee

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Falling of Indian rupee, challenges and advantages

Context

  • The Indian rupee has been quite the controversial newsmaker this year. Having fallen more than 11 percent against the US dollar so far in 2022, the rupee breached the much-feared 80-mark in July and went on to set record lows, touching 83 to a dollar late in October.

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Impact on trade

  • Widening trade deficit: The first phenomenon is one of the biggest worries caused by a falling rupee, a rise in import costs, threatening higher inflation and a widening trade deficit.
  • Advantage for export: However, there also exists a ray of hope, a depreciated currency implies cheaper, more competitive exports and therefore, a possible export-led boost to the domestic economy. The net effect of these opposing forces would determine the impact of a depreciating currency on an economy.
  • Robust Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI): The import bill has risen not only on the back of a raging dollar and hardening crude prices but has also been spurred by strengthening domestic demand and manufacturing, as evidenced by a robust Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) of 55.3 in October.
  • Subdued merchandized export: Although service exports have done fairly well in FY 2022-23, merchandise exports have remained subdued and could soon worsen due to economic downturns in Europe and the US.

Rupee

Impact on foreign investment

  • Weak rupee low foreign portfolio investors (FPI): The rupee has a complicated relationship with the moody foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). A weaker rupee can discourage FPIs. In turn, FPI outflows can further push the rupee to depreciate.
  • Falling NRI deposits: With the rupee losing value against the dollar, and interest rates around the world rising, NRI deposit flows also fell in the five-month period from April to August 2022, down to US$1.4 billion from US$2.4 billion a year ago.
  • FDI is Rising: Net FDI flows have remained positive and are set to grow, with April-June 2022 seeing an inflow of US$13.6 billion, higher than the same period last year. Even Indian stock markets have remained resilient, particularly on the back of large net-purchases by domestic institutional and retail investors, offsetting the equity sell-off by foreign investors.
  • Negative foreign investment: Net foreign investment (FII) flows did turn negative for a few months in 2022, and while rebounding FPI and resilient FDI do point to a more optimistic opinion of India among foreign investors, foreign investment is absolutely crucial at this juncture in India’s growth story and must be watched closely.

Rupee

Efforts taken by RBI

  • Use of forex reserve: In an effort to defend the rupee, the RBI has intervened and sold off some of its foreign exchange reserves. The reserves stood at US$524.52 billion as of 21 October 2022, witnessing a fall of over US$115 billion since the beginning of the year.
  • according to RBI external situation is better: RBI has stated that most external indicators such as external debt to GDP ratio, net international investment position to GDP ratio and the ratio of short-term debt to reserves reflect India’s relatively comfortable position in meeting its external financing requirements–even in contrast to other emerging economies.
  • Careful intervention: Over-tightening of monetary policy and excessive intervention in the currency market can pose significant risks to the country’s growth prospects and the RBI must be careful to intervene just enough to quell volatility, without expending an inordinate amount of reserves.

Rupee

Opportunity in crisis

  • Leveraging the growth rate: India has the chance to leverage its relatively healthy growth rates and rising infrastructure and capital expenditure to attract foreign investment, spurring growth and strengthening the capital account.
  • High investor confidence: Investor confidence has been steady, with the country seeing a record high of annual FDI inflows of US$84.8 billion in FY2021-22 in spite of the pandemic and volatile geopolitical scenario.
  • Stability in growth: This confidence needs to be leveraged and by positioning India on the international stage as a thriving and stable haven for investments, both the country’s growth and forex needs can be met.
  • Sufficient policy support is needed: Although the falling rupee has caused worry for a few economic indicators, with sufficient policy support, the domestic economy could emerge as an outlier in a global downturn.

Conclusion

  • With the United States (US) on a war path to curtail inflation and the supply side stifled by the conflict in Ukraine, even historically strong currencies like the euro and the British pound have plummeted against the raging dollar, more than the rupee. Government and RBI must stay on course of steady growth of economy.

Mains Question

Q. Discuss the impact of falling rupee on Trade and foreign investment in India? How India has unique opportunity for growth amidst the crisis around the world?

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Child Rights – POSCO, Child Labour Laws, NAPC, etc.

Juvenile Delinquency in India

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Juvenile Justice

 Juvenile

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Context

  • The Supreme Court (SC) made an observation in its judgment of November 16 in the infamous Kathua rape-murder case that the rising rate of juvenile delinquency in India is a matter of concern and requires immediate attention.

Present approach and implications towards Juvenile delinquency

  • The goal of reformation: There is a school of thought, that firmly believes that howsoever heinous the crime may be, be it single rape, gangrape, drug peddling or murder but if the accused is a juvenile, he should be dealt with keeping in mind only one thing i.e., the goal of reformation.
  • Continuance of crime: The school of thought, we are talking about, believes that the goal of reformation is ideal. The manner in which brutal and heinous crimes have been committed over a period of time by the juveniles and still continue to be committed, makes us wonder whether the [Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children)] Act, 2015 has subserved its object.
  • No reformation but more crime: We have started gathering an impression that the leniency with which the juveniles are dealt with in the name of goal of reformation is making them more and more emboldened in indulging in such heinous crimes.

Juvenile

Provisions of Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children)] Act, 2015

  • Criminal trials are not allowed: The law, contained in successive Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Acts (JJ Acts), places a blanket ban on the power of the criminal court to try and punish a person below the specified age for committing any offence.
  • Lack of clarity on maturity of person: Should a person, who has sufficient maturity of understanding to judge the nature and consequences of his/her action, get blanket immunity from the criminal process without the fear of being prosecuted, tried and punished, merely because that person is below the specified age?
  • Child friendly inquiry: Under the existing law, such a person, at best, could be subjected to a child-friendly enquiry by a Juvenile Justice Board (JJ Board) and reformation for a maximum period of three years in a correctional home.

Juvenile

The issue of maturity of Juvenile offender

  • Help of experts to assess maturity: It is well settled that the assessment of whether or not an offender has attained sufficient maturity of understanding to judge the nature and consequences of his/her conduct is to be done by the court with the help of experts, and is a judicial function as exemplified by Section 83 of the Indian Penal Code, 1860 and Code of Civil Procedure, 1908.
  • Judicial discretion was not allowed in JJ Act 2000: The JJ Act 2000 to the extent it deprived the criminal court of the power to try and to punish a person below the age of 18 years for committing an offence, when such a person could be assessed to have attained sufficient maturity to judge the nature and consequences of his/her conduct ,encroached upon the judicial domain and was, therefore, unconstitutional.
  • No changes on maturity in JJ act 2015: The current JJ Act, 2015, suffers from the same defect, except that the age of criminal responsibility for heinous offences has been reduced to 16 years.
  • Immature send to correctional homes: It has been overlooked that the fundamental premise of juvenile justice law is that a juvenile offender who lacks such maturity should not be sent to a criminal court to be tried for the commission of an offence, and instead, should be sent to a correctional home for reform and rehabilitation.
  • Mature juvenile must be punished: Conversely, therefore, should the offender have such maturity, he/she must be prosecuted before the criminal court, tried and, if found guilty, punished. The age of the juvenile offender alone cannot, therefore, justify a blanket immunity from the criminal process rather, the question of such immunity must be assessed on a case-by-case basis depending on the maturity of such offender.

Juvenile

Trying the mature juvenile as adult

  • Mature juvenile and adults are not same: Indeed, Section 23 of the JJ Act, 2015 mandates that notwithstanding anything contained in Section 223 of the Code of Criminal Procedure of 1973 or in any other law for the time being in force, “there shall be no joint proceedings of a child alleged to be in conflict with the law, with a person who is not a child”.
  • Separate provision for mature juveniles: Provisions already exist in the JJ Act, 2015, as to how a child who has attained the age of 16 years could be tried and punished for a heinous offence.
  • Assessing the maturity of all juvenile irrespective of age: The same provisions could be extended to all juvenile offenders, regardless of age or nature of the crime, once it is found by the competent court that any such offender had sufficient maturity of understanding to judge the nature and consequences of his/her actions.

Conclusion

  • Government should amend JJ Act 2015. Such an amendment would go a long way in providing the requisite balance between the rationales underlying the juvenile justice system and the criminal justice system and realizing the objectives professed by both.

Mains Question

Q. What are the flaws with existing Juvenile Justice Act 2015 vis-e-vis maturity of juveniles? How to address the issue mature juvenile and punishment to them?

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Health Sector – UHC, National Health Policy, Family Planning, Health Insurance, etc.

The depopulation alert

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: NA

Mains level: Population and population decline trend

depopulation

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Context

  • Recently, when the world population touched eight billion, several headlines focused on how India was the largest contributor to the last billion and is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023. But missing in this conversation is the real threat of depopulation that parts of India too face, and the country’s complete lack of preparedness to deal with it.

Note: “The population and Population decline are continuously in the headlines which makes the population and associated topics important for the upcoming Mains Examinations.”

India’s Population trend

  • The total population of India currently stands at 1.37 billion which is 17.5% of the world population.
  • Between 1992 and 2015, India’s Total fertility rate (TFR) had fallen by 35% from 3.4 to 2.2.
  • Young people (15-29 age years) form 27.2% of the population in 2021. This made India enter the Demographic dividend stage.
  • The percentage of the elderly population has been increasing from 6.8% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2016.

What is depopulation?

  • The depopulation decline (also sometimes called population decline, underpopulation, or population collapse) in humans is a reduction in a human population size.
  • Over the long term, stretching from prehistory to the present, Earth’s total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.

depopulation

The depopulation discussion and the missing links

  • Falling fertility rate and discussing reversal: Demographers, policy experts and politicians in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Europe, which are experiencing falling fertility and nearing the inflection point of population declines, are beginning to talk about what the future holds and whether reversal is possible.
  • The missing key elements in the conversation: Talking about equitable sharing of housework; access to subsidized childcare that allows women to have families as well as a career; and lowered barriers to immigration to enable entry to working-age people from countries which aren’t yet in population decline is missing.

Fertility in India

  • Falling fertility rate: It is now well-established that fertility in India is falling along expected lines as a direct result of rising incomes and greater female access to health and education. India’s total fertility rate is now below the replacement rate of fertility.
  • Many states are on the verge of population decline: Parts of India have not only achieved replacement fertility, but have been below the replacement rate for so long that they are at the cusp of real declines in population. Kerala, which achieved replacement fertility in 1998, and Tamil Nadu, which achieved this in 2000, are examples.
  • Decline in working age population: In the next four years, both Tamil Nadu and Kerala will see the first absolute declines in their working-age populations in their histories. With falling mortality (barring the pandemic), the total population of these States will continue to grow for the next few decades, which means that fewer working-age people must support more elderly people than ever before.

What is Replacement Level Fertility (RLF)?

  • Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
  • In simpler terms, it denotes the fertility number required to maintain the same population number of a country over a given period of time.
  • In developed countries, replacement level fertility can be taken as requiring an average of 2.1 children per woman.
  • In countries with high infant and child mortality rates, however, the average number of births may need to be much higher.
  • RLF will lead to zero population growth only if mortality rates remain constant and migration has no effect.

A depopulating future and the challenges

  • Invisible trend because infuse of migrants: Access to working-age persons notably different from the situation in other States with low fertility. For instance, Delhi and Karnataka which are both net recipients of migrants, and will not confront population decline in the near future.
  • A skewed sex ratio remains a danger: As the latest round of the NFHS showed, families with at least one son are less likely to want more children than families with just one daughter.
  • Difference in education: The stark differences between northern and southern States in terms of basic literacy as well as enrolment in higher education, including in technical fields, will mean that workers from the southern States are not automatically replaceable.

Conclusion

  • With decades of focus on lowering fertility, the conversation in India is stuck in a rut. It is for the southern States to break away from this outmoded, data-free rhetoric and join the global conversation on depopulation. India’s cannot ignore the depopulation in the name of migration to meet its current labour needs.

Mains question

Q. What is depopulation, which has been a hot topic in recent times? Where do you see India in global population trends? Discuss.

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